Corona Daily 433: Your Corona Risk Score

This article discusses the risk of dying from Covid-19, rather than the risk of getting infected. If you live in New York, London, Moscow, Mumbai or a similar urban jungle, it is safe to assume you may get infected at some stage. That’s fine; more than 96% infected are guaranteed to recover. This paper offers a formula to compute our chances and the precautions we must take to be among the 96%.

Academic papers by professional statisticians are replete with confusing symbols. Their formulas are usually so convoluted as to befuddle potential users. Some statisticians specializing in survival analysis have offered hazard ratios. But without a PhD in statistics, you can’t understand or use them. The following proposal, though not scientifically precise, is simple and easy to implement. It is like the points-based immigration system. Except here, a low Corona score is better, high score is bad.

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Age: Start with your age.

Sex: If you are a female, add 0. / If male, add 10.

Race: Whites: add 0. / Blacks: add 10. / Brown, yellow, mixed, others: add 5.

Health conditions: (Heart disease, diabetes, asthma, high blood pressure, cancer, major liver, lung, kidney disease) First health condition: add 20/ every subsequent health condition: add 50/ Any organ transplant (such as kidney): add 70.

Profession: work mainly online: add 0. / Working among people (office/factory): add 10. / Working in care home or hospital: add 50.

Your Corona Score= Age+ points for sex +race +health conditions +profession.  

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Let us look at four examples.

Emily, a 26 year old white healthy school teacher in London.

Her score: 26 (age) + 0 (female) + 0 (white) + 0 (health) +10 (profession among people) = 36.

Joseph, a 55 year old black, on prescribed medicines for diabetes and high blood pressure, works at a museum in New York.

His score: 55 (age) +10 (male) + 10 (black) + 20+50 (two health conditions) +10 (work among people) = 155.

Vinay, an 81 year old Indian, no health conditions nor prescribed medicines, retired.

His score: 81 (age) +10 (male) +5 (Brown) + 0 (health) +0 (work) = 96.  

Ivan, a 49 year old healthy doctor working in a Covid ward in a Moscow hospital.

His score: 49(age) +10 (male) +0 (white) + 0 (health) + 50 (work at hospital) =109

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Based on the scores, I suggest four bands and the strategy for each of them.

Scores below 50: Essentially made of healthy young people not working at hospitals/care homes. They should be able to mix with people their age, hug, kiss, have sex, and able to lead a completely normal life without fear. They should take care (masks, handwash, distance) when meeting with their parents or grandparents.

Scores 51-100: Mainly people above 30 with no medical condition. This group should focus on maintaining their fitness level. Social mixing is possible, but with masks, handwash, and 1-meter distance both at work and in public places. Subject to that, should be able to lead fairly normal lives. But at the first hint of a cough or fever, must take precautions and rest.

This group includes healthy doctors, nurses and care home workers. They must wear protective gear, and test themselves regularly.

Scores 101-150: This is a mild danger zone. Elderly people with a health condition or younger people with multiple health conditions. Also organ transplant patients of any age. They should avoid using public transport. Avoid working among people. Keep a 2-3 month stock of essential medicine. Maintain a lockdown lifestyle, irrespective of what is happening outside your house.

Scores above 150: Group with the highest risk. Mainly elderly people with multiple health conditions. Migrate to a virus-free location (village?) if possible. If not, meet people exclusively on Zoom. Take walks alone. Watch Netflix. Make sure everyone living with you strictly observes mask, handwash, distance.

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Ravi