Corona Daily 168: Epidemiological Whodunnit: Part Final

The third suspected reason for the low cases and deaths in Asia and Africa is underreporting. Are poor countries hiding the deaths? They are known to report only about 5% of Malaria deaths. Indian villages may be cremating people without reporting them. In Lusaka, Zambia; in an interesting experiment, postmortem was conducted on 364 people. Only five of them were tested for coronavirus when alive. The postmortem found 70 people had coronavirus.

Like in a murder investigation, one needs to look for a motive. Ghana and Nigeria received billions of dollars to fight the virus. Politically, they should be interested in over-reporting.

There are at least two ways to probe this issue. One is the all-cause mortality or excess mortality statistics. It is very difficult to hide bodies, even murderers can rarely do it successfully. Most civilized countries keep reliable death records. Natural deaths have a smooth, predictable graph. They don’t jump suddenly.

If you look at the excess deaths table by The Economist (till 18 Feb), other than South Africa, all countries are from Europe and America. Between 1 April- 31 Dec 2020, Russia reported 56,250 deaths. But excess deaths were 367,880 during the same period. Russia defines a covid death only if covid-19 is written as the cause on the death certificate. In the first ten months, USA reported 360,370 covid deaths, and 448,550 excess deaths. If there is under-reporting, it is universal, not just in poor countries.

The other way to judge if official trends are right is the empirical evidence. My doctor friends tell me the situation in Bombay hospitals is fine now. Last August, some hospitals were exclusively set aside for covid patients. This year, I have heard of new cases in my neighbourhood, but no deaths.

*****  

The fourth factor is the government action and its willingness to enforce it. USA was an excellent example of what not to do. I believe at least half of the American deaths can be attributed to Trump’s recklessness and denial. In the best prepared nation, those deaths were avoidable. In rich nations, freedom of mind and expression, the ultimate test of democracy, was confused with liberty to ignore a health emergency.

Countries like Rwanda, on the other hand, were very clear with decisive control measures, strict curfew. And the Rwandan population listened. Now restrictions are lifted, and applied strictly only at a local level to suppress an outbreak.

Bombay’s Dharavi was another good example. Perseverant contact tracing, quarantine and disinfection measures managed to contain the virus in this supremely crowded giant slum.

*****

The fifth factor is the acquired differences in human immunity. The citizens of the poor countries believe their immunity is stronger.

B-cells and T-cells are part of acquired immunity. B cells make antibodies against viruses, T cells hunt for cells infected by a virus. Mukherjee compares B cells to a sharpshooter, and T cells to a detective. Some studies found that the novel coronavirus was triggering a T-cell response, based on a different infection earlier. The T-cell memory recognized this new foe, without meeting it earlier. In that sense, the novel coronavirus was not novel for everybody.

This cross-reactivity, the ability of immune system to protect against one pathogen based on another, appears to be stronger in Africa and Asia. A Mumbai doctor says in India people had really high levels of antibodies, the levels don’t decay even among old people, and the antibodies stay for a long time.

*****

Finally, the sixth hypothesis talks about the viral load. Indian cases have unusually low virus levels. Warm weather and open ventilation may be resulting in low-dose exposure. This hypothesis could also explain the large number of asymptomatic cases in India. Many serosurveys in Indian cities found more than half the population carrying antibodies.

*****

Mukherjee says it would be ideal to find a single cause, a single murderer for the murder. However, with so many hypotheses, he equates the case to Agatha Christie’s Murder on the Orient Express. Poirot realizes the murder to be a pre-planned collective act.

The strange matter of the coronavirus crippling rich nations may similarly be due to a combination of causes.

Ravi 

Corona Daily 169: Epidemiological Whodunnit

SARS-CoV-2 presents several mysteries. A disease of such scale and severity is expected to affect the poorest countries most. They have the worst doctor-patient ratios, poor public health infrastructure, high pollution levels. What has happened during the pandemic has baffled even the experts.

North America with 7% of the global population accounts for 30% of the cases and deaths. Same with Europe. Asia with 60% of the world population suffered only 15% deaths, and the African continent less than 4%. Dharavi, Asia’s largest slum, experienced only one tenth of the expected deaths. It hasn’t had any since December. On the other hand, Los Angeles has no spare ICU bed.

Malaria, Typhoid, Diphtheria and AIDS, as a rule, hit the poorest countries. Deaths per million is possibly the best measure for comparison. The top countries include Belgium, UK, Italy, Portugal and USA, each of them having lost more than 1500 people per million. India’s death rate is ten times lower. Nigeria’s is one hundredth that of the USA.

Some diseases are called rich man’s diseases. Covid is not that, because lots of poor people in rich countries have died. But I won’t hesitate to call it a ‘rich nation’s disease’.

What is the cause of this mystery? This week Siddhartha Mukherjee, in an excellent article in the New Yorker discusses this. Mukherjee is the Pulitzer winner for his book “The emperor of all maladies: a biography of cancer.” I will cover the key points from his article over today and tomorrow.

*****

First factor is the median age. Please note all the factors are hypotheses at this stage. They suggest rather than prove anything.

In India, the median age is 28, in USA 38, UK 40. Italy at 47, Germany 48, and Japan 48 are some of the oldest countries. Nigeria’s median age is 18. Most African countries are very young.

Virologists and number crunchers have stated a rule of thumb: After thirty, the chance of dying with covid-19 doubles every eight years. (No need to apply the rule to yourself, can be depressing). If true, it is only logical that countries with a high number of elderly residents will suffer the most covid casualties. Good so far. However, questions remain. For example, Mexico’s median age is like India’s. But it has lost ten times more people to covid.

*****

The second possible factor is the family composition. Who lives with whom and the human interaction. Usually, the richer the country, smaller is the size of the household. In UK, the average household size is 2.3, in Africa’s Benin 5.2. However, in the context of the pandemic, this statistic can be deceptive. In the UK and USA, a large number of elderly people live in long-term nursing homes. In fact, around one third of the covid deaths in the USA happened in care homes. The question then is whether an Indian or African living in a three-generation household is more at risk than the 80+ Americans or British living together in a nursing home?

Covid vulnerabilities are of two types: intrinsic (age, obesity), or extrinsic (household size, medical professional). In the morbid trade-off question, one wonders if it is better to be young in a crowded house, or old in a large house?

The statistical models base their forecasts by answering such questions. Epidemiologists were brilliant in forecasting deaths in the rich world. In the USA, the actuals almost match the projections. But the models went abysmally wrong in the poor world. As per the model, Pakistan was expected to have 650,000 deaths so far, they have had 12,000. Cote d’Ivoire lost fewer than 200, instead of the projected 52,000. Epidemiologists, last March, were certain Nigeria would suffer 418,000 deaths in a year’s time. Nigeria lost 1300, and most cases are mild.

*****

(Continued tomorrow)

Ravi

  

Corona Daily 170: Tokyo 2020: Here We Go

Japan last year reluctantly postponed the Tokyo Olympics by a year. It will still be called “Tokyo 2020”. Euro 2020 will also happen this year, Dubai Expo 2020 will happen from October 21 to March 22. Rebranding expense is one consideration. If we can accept Covid-19, why not Tokyo 2020?

If the Olympic happens, the first medals will be given on 24 July. The medals this time are made from recycled cell phones. After two dazzling weeks, the event will conclude with the men’s marathon on 8 August.

Before that, the Olympic torch relay will start on 25 March. The flame will travel through 47 prefectures before reaching Tokyo for the 23 July opening ceremony. The organisers may modify routes to avoid crowds. Usually being a torchbearer is an honour, this time it’s a punishment. Torchbearers are asked to take utmost care for two weeks before, no eating out, no mixing with people, minimum exposure. Celebrities are asked not to reveal their route. Comedian Atsushi Tamura withdrew because he and other celebrities were asked to carry the torch through rice paddies to avoid spectators.

*****  

If the Olympic happens, 11,000 athletes from 200 countries, their coaches, officials, and 25,000 journalists are expected to arrive. The number of foreign tourists will depend on the virus performance in the coming weeks.

A 32-page playbook has been issued for athletes as well as fans. Spectators can clap, but not shout or sing. Vaccines are not necessary, because fit young sportsmen shouldn’t take them at the expense of the vulnerable population. But masks, covid tests, temperature checks will be a norm. Special fever clinics and reserved hospital space will be available. Everyone should stay at least one meter away from visitors, and two meters away from an athlete.

The Olympic village, normally a great joy for the Olympians, will be different. Sportsmen and their entourage are encouraged to come to Japan not earlier than five days before their event. And leave soon after their event is over, please.

*****

Laws prevent the Japanese government from announcing lockdowns. The Japanese can only “encourage” people to do things. For visitors, no quarantine is required. But for 14 days from arrival, they will be encouraged not to use public transport, not visit any bar or restaurant, not go to any health club, nor visit any tourist destination. Thank you.

To reduce exposure, athletes the world over were allowed to reduce or cancel doping tests, a pre-requirement for all Olympians. For organized doping, Russia is banned for four years, and will not take part. There will be no Russian flag, no Russian anthem. However, Russian athletes who are clean will participate under the banner of ROC (Russian Olympic committee).

*****

In case an athlete tests positive, everyone he/she came in contact with will have to withdraw. This is a risk for team sports like water polo, field hockey, basketball and soccer. This adds a new exciting dimension, in case the Olympic happens. This month, 65 Sumo wrestlers and 51 table tennis players had to withdraw from Japan’s national championships.

The cost of delaying the Olympic was $6 billion. Cancelling would cost $42 billion and Japan’s reputation. Though 80% of the Japanese population is in favour of cancellation. Coca-Cola and Toyota, the sponsors, and Lloyd’s, Munich Re, Swiss Re, the insurers are all praying the games happen as scheduled.

*****

As if this was not enough, Yoshiro Mori, former president of Japan, who headed the Olympic committee, had to resign this month. He said he felt annoyed because “women talk too much”. He has been replaced by a woman.

The weather in July-August promises to be awful. It is predicted this will be the hottest and most humid Olympic on record. As luck would have it, 2020 summer was cooler because of lockdowns, but this year promises to be very hot. Outdoor athletes, where they can, have included heat training. Heat stress and heat strokes are a real risk. Organisers have rescheduled the start times for certain events and enhanced medical support.  

*****

Japanese government confidently says Tokyo 2020 is definitely going ahead; unless cancelled.

Ravi   

Corona Daily 171: The Purest and Strangest Oscars

On 28 February, the coming Sunday, millions would have watched “the Oscars” on TV. Thanks to the pandemic, the 93rd academy award ceremony will now take place two months later, on 25 April. The Academy Awards were given first time in 1929, when the entire ceremony lasted for fifteen minutes. Since then, this is only the fourth time the Oscars are delayed. In 1938, flooding in Los Angeles postponed the date. In 1968, the date was shifted following the assassination of Martin Luther King. In 1981, President Reagan survived, but the assassination attempt was scary enough to delay the Oscars.

Funnily enough, the name “Oscars” is not official. In 1930 or thereabout, when the Academy librarian Margaret Herrick saw the statue, she said it resembled her uncle Oscar. The famous statue weighs eight-and-a-half pounds and stands 13 and a half inches tall.

*****

In a normal Hollywood year, winter is the award season. Los Angeles, London and New York are busy with hundreds of screenings, ceremonies, panel discussions and lavish cocktail receptions. Pandemic has put an end to all that. Some panel discussions are held on Zoom, but without cocktails to follow, few people are interested in them.

Theatrical release was mandatory for eligibility. That has been relaxed to modify the condition as “intention to release in theatres”. Films released via password-protected or transactional video-on-demand are eligible if originally meant to be shown in cinema halls.

This year a record 9362 academy members will vote to decide the nominations and winners in twenty-four categories. They are reduced to watching the films in their living rooms. Voters opening up the official screening app have 177 films to consider. With no guidance and no cocktails, voters will have to actually watch the movie and assess.  

*****

Rules prohibit the movie producers or studios to send to voters anything other than a DVD of the film. However, there are enough ways to bypass the rules.

The season usually begins with the Toronto film festival in September and culminates with Oscars in February. Between them are four televised ceremonies, all of them postponed this year. Golden Globes (this year 28 Feb), Critics choice (7 March), SAG (14 March) and BAFTA (11 April) lead up to Oscars.

Earlier, big Hollywood studios did everything to wine and dine the voters. Now online platforms like Netflix compete with the studios. Last time, for the Critics Choice awards, Netflix received 61 film and TV nominations. Netflix had flown some 400 journalists, from the voting body, to Los Angeles and New York, on expensive trips. They were booked in the high-end hotels, had private encounters with filmmakers and stars, were gifted promotional items such as premium alcohol bottles.

For big films, the cost of a campaign to win awards is over $20 million per film. There are specialized agencies and consultants that work exclusively on marketing and lobbying the voters. Even an actress in the supporting category requires personal styling for every look she sports on the campaign trail, including a designer for outfits to be worn at airports.

Just like without a billion US dollars as the campaign money it is not possible to become the president of the USA any more, it is difficult to win an Oscar unless substantial money has been invested in winning the voters. None of the practices are ethical, but they are based on loopholes in the existing laws. In a normal year, there is the box office boom following an Oscar win. This year, that is unlikely to happen.

*****

The pandemic year may create the purest and strangest Hollywood awards season. Without the glittering events and posh marketing campaigns, we may witness some surprises. On the coming Sunday, for the Golden Globes the Kate Hudson drama “Music” has been nominated, a movie hardly any film connoisseur had heard about before the nomination.

Ravi 

Corona Daily 172: Wanted: Monkeys

Monkeys are in short supply. We have heard of vaccine trials. Before testing vaccines on humans, they had to be tested on monkeys. Bioqual was one of the companies responsible for supplying monkeys to Moderna and Johnson and Johnson. The company lost their contract mid-way because it couldn’t supply enough monkeys.

Monkeys are ideal for vaccine trials, because they share nearly 90% DNA with us. Their biology is similar. They can be tested with nasal swabs, administered intravenous injections and their lungs can be scanned. While drugs such as dexamethasone were tested on hamsters, scientists say it is nearly impossible to test vaccines without monkeys. Millions of human lives depend on monkeys.

*****

With scientists around the world desirous of developing vaccines clamoring for monkeys, the demand shot up. The cost of a single monkey went from $10,000 to more than $20,000. The situation was aggravated because a year ago China announced a ban on export of wildlife.

Though Trump had started a trade war with China, for over a decade the American scientists had a close association with the Chinese monkey suppliers. In 2019, out of the 34,000 primates imported by USA, over 60% came from China. The type of monkeys exported by China are mostly cynomolgus macaques.

China may lift the ban once the pandemic is over. However, with the skyrocketing demand for lab animals, Chinese researchers have announced they face a shortage themselves. The government stockpile in China has 45000 monkeys, a number barely enough for domestic research.

*****

Not surprisingly, India and China have the highest population of monkeys. It is estimated India has over half a million. For 22 years, until 1978, India was the major supplier of monkeys for research. India supplied some 30000 Rhesus monkeys every year to the USA.

The world’s largest supplier of monkeys suddenly banned its export following disclosures in the Indian press that the USA was using some of the monkeys for testing military weapons. This was a violation of the international agreement signed by the two states.

*****

Animal right groups have been active and aggressive in opposing the use of monkeys for scientific research. Because most monkeys are hurt or die during the experiments. Some succumb to fatal diseases or injuries. Most are killed because their tissues must be examined in autopsies to determine results.

PETA (People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals) has succeeded in lobbying with the airlines. Major airlines now ban transport of research animals, including monkeys. Animals can be transported for other purposes, such as taking them to zoos or sanctuaries, but not for experiments. Scientists are unhappy about such discriminatory practice.

*****

The choice for the USA was to home-breed monkeys, although Chinese and Indian monkeys are much cheaper than American or European monkeys. The USA maintains seven primate research centers, where before research, the animals live in colonies. The facilities are affiliated to research universities and funded by the National Institutes of Health. Animal rights activists accuse the centers of abuse, including separating babies from their mothers.

In the last two decades, those centers always wanted to expand the monkey population. Unfortunately, their budgets kept contracting. The scientists, in fact, had to give the female monkeys birth control. Every year fewer babies were born.

*****

Scientists believe monkey research remains vital for developing vaccines, understanding the basic biology of the brain, neurological and communicable diseases, and certain aspects of fertility and ageing.

The instinctive reaction of most humans is to think of animal rights activists as fanatics. If monkeys are so useful in saving millions of human lives, why not facilitate their breeding and export for the benefit of science?

Ethically speaking, though, what right does the human race have to inflict pain on monkeys for experiments? Nazis had used the same argument when conducting medical experiments on Jews.

Ravi 

Corona Daily 173: Principles of Selection

Most people know Parkinson’s Law: Work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion. Parkinson’s Law, the book, is a masterpiece by C. Northcote Parkinson. Despite serious subjects and practical insights, his prose and style make me roll on the floor laughing every time I read it. In a chapter called “the short list, or principles of selection” Parkinson discusses the British and Chinese methods to select candidates. For a single vacancy, hundreds or thousands of applicants, everyone thinking he or she is most suited for the job, apply. How to select that one candidate?

*****

United States of America is by most counts the best place for college education. Harvard, MIT, Stanford, Ivy colleges in general attract the best youth not only in America but from around the world. Despite the high costs, interest is huge. For years, standardized tests called SAT and ACT were used to assess students. The scores in such tests contributed in a big way to enrolling or rejecting students.

Due to the pandemic, SAT and ACT are now waived or made optional. This is a revolutionary change.

*****

SAT (Scholastic Aptitude Test) is a major source of competition and student stress. Unfortunately, the SAT scores were highly correlated with wealth. The higher the family income, the higher the SAT score. Well-off families use private test-prep courses and tutors. Places like Manhattan have tutors charging $1000 per hour for one-to-one tutoring. As the competition for college admissions has intensified, tutoring and SAT preparation have become a billion-dollar industry.

A study suggests that if you come from a family with an annual income greater than $200,000, your chance of scoring 1400 (out of 1600) was 20%. If you came from a poor family (less than $20,000), your chance was 2%. At Yale and Princeton, only one student in fifty comes from a poor family.

*****

Wherever demand exceeds supply, educational institutions conceive clever ways of eliminating students. Mathematics is a good example. That subject is universally used not necessarily because it is useful in the course the student is planning to study, but to eliminate students from the competition. SAT served a similar function. It allowed a quantitative measure that could legitimately throw applications out.

*****

Now with the cancellation of standardized tests, suddenly thousands of students think they have a chance to get into the top universities. “The Common Application”, an online portal, reported that one million students applied ahead of January deadlines. Harvard has got 42% more applications this year. Cornell received 17,000 extra applications. Colgate in New York, a lesser-known college, got 103% more applications.

Small universities and colleges less famous have their mailboxes empty. Many of them have lost all additional sources of revenue such as food or athletic events. Programs are slashed and faculty laid off, creating a vicious cycle making the college less attractive.

Faculty and administrators at Cal Poly Pomona spent December calling students who had saved applications but not submitted. They also called students they had rejected in the past. Cal Poly Pomona had already lost $20 million in state funding.

Among the applicants, low-income and minority students show the largest declines. Pandemic has forced many of them to consider work first. Some of them lack online access.

*****

Higher education at the elite institutions was always a sort of scam. Harvard, Cambridge, or Indian IITs use cutthroat competitive exams to intake the cream, the brightest of the bright. The success of the student in academics and life can in large measure be attributed to this selection process rather than the academic institute. The virtuous cycle further enhances the reputation of the university.

With the disappearance of the standardised tests in the pandemic, it will be curious to see how the college admission process will be handled this year.

Ravi 

Corona Daily 174: Dear Comrade Kim Jong-un

Kim Jong-un, the 38-year-old Supreme Leader of North Korea, is perhaps the most paranoid ruler in the world. A terrible historical accident after WWII split Korea into two parts, the democratic South later becoming one of the world’s most prosperous economies and the cult-driven autocratic North, an impoverished country.

How to find out the pandemic’s effect on this secretive country? Well, some institutes share satellite images. Occasionally, Dear Comrade Kim Jong-un (that is how he must be addressed every time) releases a video, or there are foreign ambassadors who may offer candid interviews.

*****

North Korea’s border with China is porous. Chinese tourists can visit Pyongyang easily. Though North Korea has denied it, it is likely the virus had entered the nation early. It became among the first nations to close all borders in both directions. Reportedly 180 North Korean soldiers died in Jan-Feb, and 3700 soldiers were under quarantine. Schools were shut on 20 February, and a year later, still remain shut.

In early March, missile tests were conducted, the military fired five missiles. The supreme people’s assembly was announced in April. These measures were meant to show confidence that the nation was handling the virus well.

In March, the Royal United Services Institute shared satellite imagery that showed the illegal traffic of coal and other goods had stopped. Commercial vessels were seen idle at the ports. In March, the official export to China was $610,000, down 96% from the previous year.

Between April and June, three months combined, Dear Comrade was seen only seven times. On average he had made 46 appearances during that period in the past years.

In August, an official who tried to bring goods to Sinuiju from across the Chinese border was executed for violating covid-19 restrictions. On 22 September, the crew of a North Korean patrol boat killed a South Korean fisheries officer who, by chance, came close to the coast. They torched his floatation device. Both these acts were as prescribed by the covid-19 emergency orders. On television, Kim Jong-un expressed regret for the death. The incident should not have happened, he was disappointed, he said.

*****

It is difficult to imagine further isolation of North Korea, but it was managed; by the ruler himself. China offered 110,000 tons of rice which never left China’s port of Dalian because North Korea feared the coronavirus could enter with the shipment.

Alexander Matsegora, the Russian ambassador, trapped inside the Russian embassy in Pyongyang now for more than a year, confirmed even basic items such as soyabean oil, sugar, flour, pasta have not been supplied. North Korea doesn’t produce, but imports them from China. Where available in black markets, the prices have gone up at least four times.

In rural areas, households get two hours of electricity a day. Fertilizer shortages could aggravate the food situation further. Typical of communist States, North Korea believes in specialized giant factories. Many of them rely exclusively on China for spare parts. For want of spare parts, many factories are closed, including the nation’s largest fertilizer plant. Power plant output has become unreliable. Production is halted at coal mines and other mines.

*****

 In the winter of 2020, Kim Jong-un introduced a new law against “reactionary thought”. It made listening to, recording or distributing foreign radio broadcasts, videos, books, music illegal. Those caught can be sentenced to death. Any citizen using South Korean expression or speaking with a South Korean accent will be sent for two years to a hard labour camp.

An official State TV footing from 11 February showed an angry Kim yelling, finger pointing and striking the podium as he addressed the ruling party’s plenary meeting. He fired Kim Tu Il, the Economic Director.

Dear Comrade, however, continued to declare North Korea’s victory by claiming the nation didn’t have a single covid-19 case.

Ravi 

Corona Daily 175: Sound of Music (2020)

The Marsh family is from Faversham, Kent, about fifty miles to the east of London. Dr Ben Marsh, 44, is a professor in American history at the University of Kent. If you read his biography, he comes across as a serious researcher and academic. He met his wife, Danielle, 42, at the University of Cambridge where they were both students. She is now also a professor at the University of Kent. Alfie, 13, Thomas, 12, Ella, 10, and Tess, 8, their four children attend school or rather did before the start of the lockdown in March 2020.

In March, Danielle’s mother had a birthday. It was impossible to meet or to celebrate the day with her. The family decided to send her a virtual gift. Children had no schoolwork; the professors didn’t have any papers to mark. Music became a welcome distraction for the family.

*****

Their living room became the stage, flowery curtains and family photos the stage background. Bathrobes and pajamas were the costumes. The six-voice musical ensemble was born.

Dad Dr Ben picked up “One Day More” from the musical Les Misérables and wrote lockdown lyrics where the parents complain about online grocery shopping, and the children lament: “Our grandparents can’t Skype, we’re brokenhearted,” and “watch our daddy drink, see our mummy sigh”.

Their clip posted on FB attracted 400,000 views in the first week. (Only the children’s grandfather protested saying he can Skype and Zoom).

*****

This was just the beginning of a long journey. By day six of the lockdown, the Marshes sang a song dedicated to the NHS, teachers and community heroes. It was the remake of “When will my life begin” from Disney’s Tangled, praising workers for all the chores they were doing.

On Twitter, Bonnie Tyler herself admired the family’s rendition of the reworked “total eclipse of the heart”.

So far, the family has posted twenty videos. The latest video, “have the new jab” (to the tune of Leonard Cohen’s Hallelujah) has been watched four million times. The lyrics encourage listeners to go and get the vaccine. Several TV channels interviewed them on Zoom. Jimmy Kimmel invited them to appear on “Good morning America”.

Fans compared them to the Von Trapps made famous by the Sound of Music. Danielle Marsh objected to the comparison saying she is definitely not a nun, neither can she make dresses out of curtains.

In the clips, the family not only sings and plays on the instruments, the children have dramatic moments of bickering and improvised dances.

All proceeds raised from the videos are directly donated to the WHO’s Covid Relief Fund.

*****  

Though none of them have music as a profession, reworking lyrics was a family hobby even before the pandemic. In the car, they usually sang songs.  For a non-professional family, their performances are of a pretty decent quality. Now that they have become a global sensation, would they consider turning this into a profession? Not really. The parents are keen to get back to the university, the kids to the schools. Schools in England are expected to begin on 8 March.

But Dr Ben says with a straight face they want to leave their options open. “Nobody’s job is secure in the post-pandemic world.” He explains.

Ravi 

Corona Daily 176: Ten Km in Snow

Fran Goldman was twenty-five years old when the polio vaccine was rolled out in 1955. Three years before that, 60,000 American children were infected and more than 3000 died. Thousands, including Franklin Roosevelt, the American president, were paralyzed by the dreadful virus. Parents anxiously tried to protect their children from the crippling disease, ordering them to stay away from swimming pools and movie theatres. Children were asked to wash hands repeatedly. Some polio-afflicted children were consigned to life in an iron lung, a type of ventilator that enveloped a child’s body to ease breathing.

Fran Goldman lived in Cincinnati then. She remembers taking her children to the local school. The vaccination was extremely well organized, the children were lined up quickly and it was over. It was hard to believe those few seconds would protect her children’s lives, they would be able to play, go to the pool and cinema without fear.

*****

Fran is now 90 years old and lives on her own in Seattle. Since the covid vaccines became available, she had been trying to get an appointment. After hours on the phone, if she managed to get through, she heard sorry not yet possible. Her daughter Ruth living in Buffalo, and a friend in Arizona tried to do it online. Fran also tried the local grocery stores with in-store pharmacies. Nothing. Finally, last Friday, on 12 Feb. after answering several questions, she got a Sunday morning appointment, fairly unexpectedly. This was a moment she had waited for, for weeks.

That same evening, a snowstorm started. Outside her condo building, foot-high snow gathered. She looked out and realized it would be impossible to drive (yes, she still drives). The Seattle children’s hospital where she had an appointment was 5 km (3 miles) away. On Saturday morning, she decided to go for a practice walk. To see if she could walk the following day for vaccination. She put on her boots, grabbed two walking sticks and set out. She had undergone a hip replacement surgery last year.

*****

Sunday, 14 February was equally bad. This was declared as one of Seattle’s snowiest weekends on record. Fran had covered two thirds of the distance yesterday, and confident she could do it on the hilly, un-ploughed roads had returned home. On Sunday morning, she dressed in fleece pants and a short-sleeved shirt so that the nurse could reach her arm easily. Over that a fleece zip-up, then a down-coat, and a rain-jacket on top. She put on her snow boots, grabbed the two walking sticks and headed out. Yesterday’s footmarks and tracks had disappeared, covered with more snow.

The trail was challenging, but she made it to her appointment, just five minutes late. That was lucky, because had she reached early, as per protocol, she would have been asked to wait in a car. And there was no car.

She waited for fifteen minutes after the shot, as required. Putting on the three layers, she walked back the five km once again. The ten km walk would not have been as difficult, she said, if she didn’t have a replaced hip.

*****

Compared to the polio vaccine experience in 1955, this year’s has been far disorganized, and messy, she felt. But it was as critical for her to take the covid vaccine as it was for her kids to take the polio vaccine then. In a month’s time, she is due for a second shot. If weather doesn’t allow it, she is willing to walk the ten km once again.

Since the pandemic began, Fran has been ordering food online and picking it up in her car. She has taken a variety of Zoom classes (currently learning about post-World War II China). She hasn’t yet seen Silas, her great-grandson born six months ago. Neither has she held Logan, another great-grandson, two years old. The vaccine was important for her to feel comfortable. “I can’t wait to be able to hold them” she said.

Ravi 

Corona Daily 177: Bonnets, Gloves and Glasses

“How do I look?” She asked first adjusting her bonnet, and then putting the glasses on. “I found these old glasses in the garage. I think my granny wore them. So thick and ugly. I can’t see much. But they should do, shouldn’t they? How do I look?” She asked again.

The older lady stared at the image in the mirror and said, “Looks ok. But I think you will need to apply some makeup, a little more. Like last time. Even with the glasses you look too young.”

The lady in the bonnet took out her i-phone 12. On the screen, she opened her photo and using an app, began rapidly altering her image. This, this, this…. Would I look older with thicker eyebrows?”

The two ladies left the house two hours later.  “I will wear the glasses once we reach”, said the lady in the bonnet. On the car GPS she set the Orange County convention center as the destination. The center is only some ten miles from Orlando’s Disney World. The newspaper reports don’t mention their names, just ages – 34 and 44.

*****

The Canadian newspapers, on the other hand, are not shy of mentioning the names of Rodney Baker, 55, president and CEO of a Canadian casino company, and his 32-year-old Russian wife, Ekaterina Baker, an aspiring actress. The Bakers first flew from Vancouver to Whitehorse, a good four-hour flight. Canadian law required them to self -isolate for 14 days. However, they took a charter flight to Beaver creek, a small community of about 100 people near the Alaska border.

Yukon’s rural communities are a priority group because they are more vulnerable to Covid-19. They are so remotely located; they have little access to health services or a hospital. The government has organized mobile vaccination clinics especially for the Yukon residents.

Rodney and Ekaterina Baker went to one such mobile clinic.

“Both of us work at a motel nearby.” Ekaterina gave the name of the motel and a charming smile. Both were given the Moderna vaccine.

They then began asking for a ride to the airport from passing cars.  “Airport?” people wondered. Why would anyone wish to go to the small airport in this lockdown time? An enforcement unit person called the airport and asked them to check who the couple was. A mobile clinic member called the motel, who said no such people work there. The couple was charged $2300 penalty.

“We didn’t anticipate anyone would go to this length to effectively deceive the team to get vaccinated.” The government official said.

*****

Let me continue with the story at the beginning of this article, which happened on 17 February with the two unnamed ladies. On reaching the center, the 33-year-old put on her granny glasses. At the counter, they showed their appointment letters and the CDC cards.

“Your driving licence, please”, the man at the counter said.

“When we got the first shot, nobody asked us for a licence.” Said the lady making her voice as trembling as possible. “You see the CDC card shows we have had our first shot. We have come for the second.”

The staff member insisted on seeing both the driving licences. He then called his manager. This center was allowed to vaccinate only people older than 65. The geriatric disguise still couldn’t beat the ages on the driving licences.

Trespass warnings were issued against them. Since the ladies were not charged, their names can’t be disclosed. By the way, they were denied the second shot they had come for.

*****

Newspapers in the USA and Europe are full of such stories. Vaccines are a scarce commodity, and hundreds of people are using every available trick in the book to getting vaccinated at the expense of someone more in need.

But then, they are simply following the example of their nation. The world’s richest countries have reserved one billion more doses than their citizens need. Africa, as a result, may not receive any vaccines this year.

Ravi                                              

Corona Daily 178: Grey’s Pandemic Anatomy

Prime time TV shows now face a huge dilemma. Should the scripts reflect pandemic reality? Should the characters wear masks? Or should the covid-fatigued viewers be treated to fantasy life by creating content without coronavirus?

Grey’s Anatomy, a globally well-known show, decided it carried a responsibility to include the pandemic, the story of a lifetime for most people. It spent the entire season battling the pandemic, with several lead characters, including Ellen Pompeo’s Meredith Grey getting ill with covid. Many indoor scenes were moved to a lawn outside the writers’ bungalow, which now doubled up as Meredith Grey’s backyard.

Masks are another serious problem for actors. To deliver facial expressions and lines in close-ups is a challenge. Grey’s Anatomy gave its doctors clear plastic coverings to talk to the patients. Through the plastic face shields, the actors’ faces were completely visible.

*****

There is a significant time lag between scriptwriting, shooting and the show going on air. Scripts written in winter may appear the next summer or autumn. That has been another challenge showrunners have confronted. When writing stories for a long season, generally scriptwriters know what the world is going to look like in the future. But in 2020, particularly before the announcement of the vaccines, scriptwriters didn’t know the shape of the future. Shows had three choices: make pandemic the theme, give it a background role, or ignore it.

Most sitcoms, particularly the new series, went for the third option, because they are hopeful of re-runs in future. Chuck Lorre, the creator of The Big Bang Theory, said he has always been a believer in making comedies that do not carry a heavy time stamp. That is why he would avoid pandemics and bell bottoms.

Mr Mayor, a show that premiered on NBC last month decided to include a punchline: “Dolly Parton bought everybody a vaccine.”

*****

Last Man Standing, a family sitcom, decided to skip ahead and show the events happening from 2023 onwards. Kevin Abbott, its showrunner, felt most decent pandemic jokes would have been told by then. Anyway, the script was not particularly suited to include pandemic references.

The Good Doctor went for a compromise. It showed two episodes focused on the coronavirus and then jumped ahead a few years to a normal world.

Superstore takes place in a store. The producers felt it would be odd to show business as usual. It’s a sitcom, so they handle the pandemic lightly. They shifted many scenes to a huge airy warehouse set so the characters could observe social distance.

Some writers have been creative. They show seaside fantasy sequences, or dreams or flashbacks to allow romance and passionate hugging and kissing without masks.

*****

This Is Us had completed its fourth season just before the lockdown last spring. Episodes of the fifth season were already written. Considerable rewriting was needed to include the pandemic. Family members casually flying here and there were suddenly stopped from travelling and sometimes couldn’t see one another. Stories of pregnancy and adoption underwent adjustments.

In general, currently there are more outdoor scenes and fewer interior location shoots. Courtroom dramas include fewer jury trials. Crowd scenes are limited, extras in the background are reduced or reused.

*****

With India’s strict prolonged lockdown, many Hindi serials were cancelled and taken off air for good. Family dramas now often actively propagate masks, sanitisers and social distancing. In Yeh Rishta Kya Kahlata Hai (What does this relationship stand for) characters interact while wearing masks. In one episode, the husband offers his wife a sanitizer bottle, and then helps her wear gloves and a face shield. That is the scriptwriter’s way to show intimacy in corona times.

Ravi