Corona Daily 434: What’s Your Corona Risk Score?

Irrespective of numbers, many countries plan to slacken the lockdown in June. After ten weeks of confinement, millions will begin jogging, hugging (privately), shopping, attending schools, going to offices, flying. The epidemic is global, but the medical risk is individual. Our actions, or inactions, must be dictated by our individual risk. This article explains the factors that influence the risk. Tomorrow, I will give a mathematical formula.

We must first distinguish between (a) the risk of getting infected and (b) the risk of dying. The second event is contingent on the first. One cannot die of Covid-19 without getting infected. The best strategy to lower the risk is of course to not get infected. But if you are locked down in New York, London or Mumbai, that is nearly impossible. One piece of advice I w0uld offer to the super-rich afraid of Covid-19 is to buy quality protective gear, fly to Vietnam, Bhutan or Mongolia, and settle there till the pandemic ends. (Immunity immigration visa?) Syria's infections are few as well, but the survival rate in general can be low there.

Significant data is now available from China, USA and the UK. Six key factors define your individual risk. (a) Age (b) Sex (c) Race (d) Health conditions (e) Location (f) Profession.

Age: For those below 45, with no health condition, the risk is almost non-existent. After 65 the risk starts growing, after 80 it is significant, and after 90, very high. Declining immunity in old age contributes to this risk graph. This doesn’t mean every 80+ is in danger. Healthy 100 year olds can survive this infection, and indeed have.

Sex: Men are far more vulnerable. In China, the risk of men dying as compared to women is 1.65 times, in New York, 1.77 times. In general, women have a longer life expectancy. (It is said men are more fortunate than women. They marry later and die earlier).

Race: I was reluctant to include this. But in the USA and UK, the death of blacks is disproportionately larger to whites.

Health conditions (Comorbidities): A super-important factor. Heart disease, diabetes, asthma, high blood pressure, cancer all add to vulnerability. For a patient with two or three conditions, the risk skyrockets. UK scientists have added obesity to this list.

Location (post code):  Location was initially important for your government’s strategy. In a complete lockdown, the risk of getting infected was 1 out of 100,000. Under mitigation strategy (testing/tracing/isolation), it was 1 in 10. In ‘do nothing’ strategy, it is about 8/10. Lockdown fatigue may convert communities to ‘do nothing’. Zip Code 11369 in Queens, NYC has half its population officially infected. Newham and Brent in London have suffered the maximum deaths in the UK. Mumbai, my home town, is a hot spot.

Profession: Will you work online or offline? If offline, how many co-workers and customers you will come in contact with? The risk score of workers in care homes and hospitals rises dramatically.

Based on these factors, tomorrow’s article will offer a formula to calculate our individual risk score. Our strategy and behavior should be based on that score. 

Ravi