Corona Daily 459: Professor Lockdown

On 5 May, 51-year old Professor Neil Ferguson, the UK’s most influential epidemiologist, scientist and architect of the UK lockdown resigned as a government advisor.

Prof Ferguson has more than twenty years of experience with pathogen outbreaks. His predictions have not always been accurate. In 2001, during the foot and mouth outbreak, he said 150,000 could die. Based on his advice, as a precaution, 6 million animals were slaughtered. In the end 200 people died. For his Foot and Mouth models, he was bestowed with the Order of the British Empire (OBE). During the 2002 Mad Cow outbreak, Ferguson feared up to 50,000 might die. 177 died. In the 2005 bird flu epidemic, Ferguson estimated 200 million could die. 282 died. In the 2009 Swine flu epidemic, he predicted 65,000 deaths. Final figure was 457. Epidemiology is not an exact science. Prof Ferguson has candidly said he doesn’t own a crystal ball. His track record was not the reason for his resignation.

Professor Ferguson is a deemed Patient Zero in Westminster. At 5 pm on March 17, he had a speech at 10 Downing Street. He greeted Boris Johnson and his cabinet (perhaps by shaking hands), gave his revolutionary speech and left. Next morning he woke up with a high fever and dry cough. On 19 March, he tested positive. On 26 March, PM Johnson, UK’s health secretary Hancock and Chief Medical Officer Whitty tested positive. By 30 March, half of the cabinet was infected. Johnson nearly died. But this suspicion of being the pioneer transmitter did not cause his resignation.

Before his revolutionary speech at Downing Street, UK had focused on ‘herd immunity’. Instead of suppression it relies on developing mass immunity by facing the music. Prof Ferguson singlehandedly changed it. He presented models which showed 510,000 British citizens could die, unless a strict lockdown is implemented. Not only did UK reverse its strategy, inspired by the Ferguson figures; France, USA and Germany went for strict lockdowns. PhDs from Oxford command worldwide respect. Based on the professor’s advice, Johnson addressed the nation on 30 March. He recommended the strictest lockdown. “You should not be meeting friends. If your friends ask you to meet, say no. You should not meet family members who don’t live in your home.” Aptly Neil Ferguson is nicknamed Professor Lockdown. He managed to put 66 million Brits under house arrest.

This week, the Telegraph revealed Prof Ferguson’s 38-year old lover has been visiting him secretly. Why can’t they live together, which is permissible under lockdown? They can’t. She lives with her husband and two children in another part of London. On 30 March, on BBC Today Prof Ferguson was telling the nation the criticality of a strict lockdown. Reportedly, when he was broadcasting, his lover was hiding in his bedroom.

The professor accepted he made an error of judgment. He deeply regretted undermining the clear social distancing message. He emphasized the government advice was unequivocal, it protects everyone. With that, he resigned.

Ravi