Corona Daily 431: Virus Eradicated from Italy?

‘In reality, the virus clinically no longer exists in Italy.’ Announced Dr Alberto Zangrillo, triumphantly, on Sunday. He heads the intensive care unit at a hospital in Lombardy, Milan, Italy’s pandemic hotspot. Italians know Dr Zangrillo as the personal doctor of Silvio Berlusconi. ‘Experts are too alarmist about predicting a second wave of infections.’ He added.  For him, the Italian government’s plan to add another 150,000 IC beds makes no sense. Holding the country hostage to such predictions must stop. SARS and MERS disappeared, so will this virus. Dr Matteo Bassetti supported him by saying the virus had weakened and today Covid-19 was different.

Italians watching the TV interview and the Corona-skeptics slept wonderfully on Sunday night.

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Monday, 1 June, brought a wave of reactions from doctors and professors in the UK.

Prof. Francois Balloux, UCL, London: There is no evidence the virus has lost its ‘strength’. The outbreak in Italy is waning, but we should definitely not rule out a second wave later this year.

Dr Elisavetta Groppelli, St George’s, London: In Italy, the age of confirmed cases has been decreasing. Disease severity is less in the younger groups. The virus genome is being monitored worldwide. Consensus is there is no evidence for change in virus features.

Prof. Martin Hibberd, London: Even among symptomatic patients, 80% have mild disease. During a major outbreak, those cases are overlooked. When the number of severe cases falls, those with mild symptoms get more attention – giving the impression the virus is changing. 

Dr Oscar MacLean, Glasgow: These claims are fairly implausible on genetic grounds. Making them on the basis of anecdotal observations is dangerous.

WHO too jumped in, cautioning world leaders about reports that the virus was “losing potency”. That is not the case at all, said WHO.

Maria Van Kerkhove, the WHO epidemiologist said: The virus has not changed either in terms of severity or transmissibility. This is still a killer virus, and thousands of people are dying daily.

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In April and May, the two strictest lockdown months worldwide, Coronavirus killed 6000 people every day. (Compare SARS outbreak 2002-2003 had 8000 confirmed cases and 774 people died in total).

The arrival of summer and relaxation of lockdowns create a feeling that the worst is over. But seasonality of the virus is not known yet. And when the northern hemisphere has summer, the south has winter. Last week, Mexico touched a daily 500 death figure. Yesterday, Brazil had 1232 Covid-19 deaths.

Yes, Italy is waning, but more than 50 Italians still die every day. Unless a 12-month cycle is gone through, it will be premature to claim victory. Unfortunately, every summer is followed by a winter. The cases may rise again in the fall itself.

Among politicians and masses we see many self-proclaimed virologists who equate Covid-19 to the flu, who think the lockdown business is complete nonsense, who refuse to wear masks, who recommend preventive drugs, who want the world to run as always by ignoring the virus. The virus will miraculously disappear, most likely once the sun is up, they think.

I have made a request to those skeptics. Please go to your neighborhood hospital and work as volunteers in the Covid-19 wards. Volunteers are needed desperately.

Not a single person has taken up that challenge.

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Ravi