Corona Daily 093: Ten Million and Counting

Yesterday, a Russian friend from Moscow’s Ballet on Ice called. Once upon a time, I had worked as the Russian interpreter with that group. The former ballerina told me about the death of a ballet dancer, our common friend. She has been hearing about so many untimely deaths. Everyone she talks to tells her about three or four people they have lost.

I could relate instantly with her. In Bombay, every day on average I hear about someone dying from covid, a relative’s relative, a friend’s friend, my mother’s student. If 4000 Indians are falling victims to covid daily, and I know one of them, my network has to be fantastic. (Mathematically, I should know 350,000 Indians). The dark possibility is the gross undercount of deaths, both in India and Russia.

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The Economist has been systematically tracking the excess mortality data from the pandemic’s start. It has now completed a robust analysis using available reliable data. For other countries, the model uses 121 different variables to come up with the best estimates.

First the headline numbers. The total number of pandemic deaths are somewhere between 7.1 million and 12.7 million, the central number being 10 million. That is more than three times the official count.

If you look at worldometer, parts of Asia and Africa appear to have escaped the brunt of the virus. Not true according to the Economist. In poor and middle income groups, under-reporting is huge, giving a deceptive picture.

In the USA, the difference between official data and the model output is only 7%. In Romania and Iran, the deaths are more than double the government figures. And in Egypt, excess mortality is 13 times bigger. Peru’s pandemic, even today, is 2.5 times worse than India’s. Nepal and Pakistan also have a suppressed covid count.

For sub-Saharan Africa, the estimated death rate is 14 times the official number.

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What sort of intelligent estimation has the Economist model made?

As a rule, in places where lots of tests come back positive, it is safe to assume that the testing focuses on those seeking medical treatment or have symptoms. Lots of infections are missed in those countries.

Serosurveys show the percent of population with antibodies.

Other indicators are the steps the governments take to curb the pandemic; the extent to which people move around physically (satellite pictures or phone data); systems of government; media freedom, demographic factors; and geographic location.

Russia, where media is controlled by the state, has excess deaths that are 5.1 times greater than official covid deaths. Instead of the 100,000 deaths that Russia reports, more than 500,000 Russians have died. That is why the Russian ballet dancer was surprised at every Muscovite knowing someone who has died.

Closure of schools is a good indication that the actual picture is worse. Indian schools have been shut for over a year. In January, when PM Modi declared victory over coronavirus, he would have reopened the schools if it was a genuine victory.

Demography matters. If two populations have the same level of health care, the one with more elderly people sees more deaths. The risk of dying from covid is 13 times greater in Japan (median age 48) than Uganda (median age 17).

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As per the model, India is seeing between 6000 and 31000 excess deaths daily, not 4000 as reported. It is in line with the epidemiologists’ estimate – between 8000 and 32000. Only in 2021, around one million Indians have already died of covid.

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The methodology of the Economist model is here. The raw data is here. You can check your country’s data here. (Sorry, India is missing).

Under-reporting for whatever reason is a menace. It means not enough ICU beds, not enough ventilators, not enough medicines, and bodies thrown in rivers.

The under-reporting countries, including India and Russia should closely look at the Economist model, and either scientifically refute it, or try to budget medical stocks for the higher figures.

Ravi