Corona Daily 080: Chinese Lab Leak Theory: Part Three

Suddenly the lab leak theory is in headlines everywhere, particularly in nations where life is becoming normal.

Yesterday, President Biden, speaking publicly, asked the US intelligence agencies to redouble their efforts to find the truth. He has given them 90 days to come back with a report.

Before that, on 14 May, eighteen scientists published a letter in a scientific journal urging further investigations into the origins of Covid-19. The WHO visit in March, and the delegation including the ever-present Dr Daszak, a man with conflicting interests; produced a report that did not satisfy anyone. The two theories were not given balanced consideration, with only 4 out of the report’s 333 pages talking about the possibility of a lab accident. The scientists now demand an investigation that is transparent, objective, data-driven, inclusive of broad expertise, subject to an independent oversight, and responsibly managed to minimize the impact of conflicts of interest. (Meaning all these factors were absent during the WHO visit).  

Taking cue, Facebook today lifted a year-long ban. From now on, your FB posts can say the virus was man-made. Earlier, this was considered misinformation that warranted removal of the post.

One possible reason for the revival of the subject is the World Health Assembly, which meets this week (24 May-1 June), virtually. This is a decision making body of the WHO. The theme of its weekly conference is: “Ending this pandemic, preventing the next: Building together a healthier, safer and fairer world.”

Of course, if the world knew how the current pandemic started, that will be a big help in preventing the next one.

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If prosecution (led by the USA) must present evidence to show the coronavirus leaked from a lab, the defense (China) can strengthen its argument by offering evidence of a natural spillover from animal to human.

Scientists have been skeptical of the lab leak theory because animal spillover has been common in most epidemics. Genetics studies show that nearly every disease mankind has faced has jumped from animals: bubonic plague from rats, measles likely from cows, whooping cough from dogs, and AIDS from Chimpanzees.  

SARS virus was transmitted to humans from civets and MERS from dromedary (Arabic) camels. This detection happened within four months for SARS and nine months for MERS. Now, eighteen months after the start of Covid-19, scientists have failed to discover an intermediary who has passed on the covid virus to humans.

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The bats blamed as the source live in Yunnan or Zhejiang province, both provinces nearly 1000 km away from Wuhan’s seafood market. Bats normally live in caves and trees and are not known to fly 1000 km to reach a densely populated town of 15 million. Research among Wuhan residents showed bats are neither eaten in Wuhan nor traded at its markets. If bats were a source, an intermediate host was essential. Pangolin was suggested in the beginning, but for want of evidence nobody is talking about it now.

The Wuhan Institute of Virology is the premier virology institute not only in China, it ranks among the top in the world. How did the coronavirus originating from bats located 1000 km away decide to infect people precisely in the town where China’s premier Virology institute is situated? Why did the epidemic not start in places between Yunnan and Wuhan? One possibility is that people in other places were infected, but because of top-class virologists, Wuhan managed to detect the virus first. (Like UK’s superior genomic surveillance ability allowed it to quickly find mutations). But the studies conducted in other Chinese towns/villages did not show any presence of antibodies outside Wuhan.

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None of this discussion suggests Bats were not the source, they probably were. Nor that the coronavirus was not natural, it could be. Still China in its defense must map out the route of the virus from the Yunnan caves to Wuhan. Its failure to do so makes the virus landing precisely in Wuhan a spooky coincidence. The logical alternative is that the virus existed in a Wuhan lab, and accidentally went out. More on that, tomorrow.

Ravi