Corona Daily 082: Chinese Lab Leak Theory: Part One

In January 2020, from what we read in the news, the coronavirus first appeared at Wuhan’s Huanan seafood market. Wet markets around the world are literally wet because of live fish splashing in tubs of water, melting ice to keep meat cold and the blood and organs of slaughtered animals.

Wuhan’s market was not only a wet market, but a wildlife market. It sold exotic live and killed species: snakes, beavers, porcupines, baby crocodiles and others that people in other continents would not imagine eating.

The non-vegetarian food in Europe, USA or India is usually made from animals that are themselves largely vegetarian: cow, lamb, duck, chicken. Chinese, on the other hand, can eat carnivores. Some people wondered if this could be the cause of the virus appearing at the market. It is true that wildlife and human life should have some distance from one another, to prevent a virus spillover. In the beginning of 2020, the world demanded that China should shut its wildlife markets.

One question made me uneasy. Why now? Chinese people have been eating wild animals for over 1000 years. Earlier, China was extremely poor. For survival, they had to eat whatever moved on four legs. After developing a taste for centuries, the habit continued even for well-off Chinese. If the Chinese have been buying exotic animals for centuries and eating them, why should that cause a pandemic now?

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Trump called it the Chinese virus. Conspiracy theorists said this was China’s bio-weapon to become the ultimate superpower. Scientists analyzing the DNA of the virus said it was a natural virus, not made in any lab.

Now eighteen months later, more information is available. Last week, 18 leading biologists have published a letter calling for a new investigation. Once again the Chinese Lab Leak theory is in the news, big time.

It is like a murder mystery where only circumstantial evidence is available. The balance of probabilities can help us form a judgment.

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The four possibilities discussed last year were:

(a)  Natural: From the Wuhan seafood market or somewhere else. A few infected Chinese patients at the beginning of the pandemic had nothing to do with the seafood market. It is possible the food from the market reached and infected them. However, it is increasingly accepted the seafood market was not the primary source.

(b) Regular scientific work, but bad safety: The Wuhan lab may have been researching tests or vaccines, which is a legitimate activity. Accidentally, a breach caused the leak.

(c)  Bad intentions, and bad safety: Chinese scientists were trying to create an engineered bio-weapon. Just like nations developing nuclear weapons, without planning to use them. Sadly, an accidental leak occurred.

(d) China deliberately released the covid virus: This theory is considered unlikely. If it was deliberate, China didn’t need to launch the weapon in its own territory.

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In late December 2019, doctors at hospitals near Wuhan’s Huanan seafood market began seeing patients with a strange viral pneumonia. On 30 December, the Wuhan Municipal Health commission issued a warning. On the following day, WHO put out a global alert.

On 1 January, the Huanan seafood market was closed and hosed down with water. This was a crime scene that might have contained clues. Before the market closure, sellers were driven away with their animals. Some sellers may have had infected animals. Some live animals or fresh meat may have gone to other markets or in the trash. Customers left the market. And then the hosepipes cleaned it. The best epidemiological evidence was probably lost.

The Chinese health commissions then ordered diagnostic and genetic labs to destroy the samples of viruses they held, or pass them to the high level biosecurity lab. Most labs burned them. This was cited as a cover-up by the Trump administration. However, this is a standard safety procedure to prevent an outbreak. In 2014, CDC USA had given a similar order when Ebola was detected.

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(Continued tomorrow)