Corona Daily 078: Chinese Lab Leak Theory: Part Final

Eighteen months after its birth, there appears to be a consensus among scientists that the origin of covid-19 virus was the horseshoe bat. The virus spilled over into humans either directly, or more likely via another animal. The genome analysis suggests it could be a cross between a bat virus and say a pangolin virus, with some additional genetic sequence (called furin cleavage site) that makes it far more infectious for humans.

Such blending and spicing up can be done in labs. In 2015, Dr Shi’s team from WIV created a chimera from a bat coronavirus and a mouse coronavirus that was able to replicate efficiently in human airway cells. Those suspecting a lab leak suggest the engineering of the furin cleavage site could have been the product of WIV.

However, most scientists believe such engineering is more likely to happen in nature. Nature is the greatest designer.

The lab leak theory neither insists on a Wuhan lab designing the covid-19 virus, nor deliberately using it as a bio-weapon. The naturally created virus could accidentally slip from a lab through negligence, accident or sheer bad luck. Crashing of a Petri dish is not required. An infected bat, brought in for research, can transmit the virus to a lab employee, and start a global pandemic.

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In this mystery, where millions are killed, certain suppression of data raises doubts. China has the key epidemiological data on the first 174 covid patients in December 2019. The authorities refused to share it with the WHO delegation. Such data is critical for investigation, and can clearly tilt the balance towards one of the hypotheses.

China is in a difficult situation. If they keep the data secret, they will be assumed guilty. If they share it, who knows what will come out.

They have instead opted for whataboutism. A hawkish Chinese ministry spokesman has demanded the USA opens up its Fort Detrick (a US lab established to develop bio-weapons in the past, now runs a biological defence program) for international scrutiny. The biologist Dr Daszak reminds us that China is a sovereign country. Why should it open up its lab records to outsiders? Daszak must ask the coronavirus if it is aware of the concept of a country’s sovereignty.

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The stated objective of the virus re-engineering research (gain of function) was to prevent pandemics. The irony is that such research has not prevented, but may have caused the pandemic. Neither did the WIV manage to create covid medicines or vaccines as promised in its agenda.

Countries are now competing for virology research. There is no global authority or international treaty that sanctions such labs. USA already has more than a dozen BSL-4 labs, and more are planned. After the pandemic, more scientists will be keen to research dangerous viruses. That will mean more researchers going to the caves, coming into contact with BATS and other animal reservoirs of viruses, collecting samples, working on them in labs, upgrading them to make them potent killers, and in this entire process leaking them through accident or negligence.

The existence of such viruses is itself a major threat. Despite repeated requests to destroy them, a collection of live smallpox viruses is stubbornly held at Koltsovo (Russia), and Atlanta (USA). It just needs a single madman to use them. Both USA and Russia have shown capability of having madmen at the helm.

China should use this as a negotiation tool. To open up their records, they can insist on an international audit of all such labs in the world. That would be fair. Any lab leak can start another pandemic. An international treaty exercising strict controls and scrutiny over all bio-labs is essential. As critical as control over nuclear installations. Pandemics may be a greater threat than nuclear warfare. In the name of science, researchers can’t make the world a more vulnerable place. The gain of function research to make natural viruses more vicious should be banned. The smallpox viruses in Russia and USA must be destroyed.  

If such bargaining results in worldwide bio-safety lab reforms, China may be forgiven even if the lab leak theory proves correct.

Ravi