Corona Daily 111: Pandemic’s Huge Baby Bust

With couples locked down everywhere last April, the world expected a baby boom nine months later. 2021 will bring in millions of lockdown babies, cheerfully announced the social media experts.

That was a misconception. A year later, America and Europe are looking at an unprecedented baby bust. USA faces the biggest birth slump in 100 years. Brookings institute projected US births would fall by 300,000 - 500,000 this year. It’s a double whammy – covid is taking people away, and fewer babies are replacing them.

China had 11.8 million births in 2019, but only 10 million in 2020. (12% decline).

December and January statistics are out for most developed nations. Births have fallen between 7% and 22%. North America, Europe and rich Asian nations are likely to see a 15% decline in births in 2021. P&G, Nestle and Reckitt Benckiser are already revising their sales forecasts for diapers and baby formulas.

Google search provides collateral evidence. The search for ultrasound, morning sickness, Clearblue (pregnancy test) has fallen since the pandemic began.

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There are several reasons given:

Economic uncertainty and the challenges of lockdown parenting have dissuaded 34% of American women. They have either postponed the thought of children or reduced the number of children they expected to have.

The hardest virus-hit areas show the largest declines. Fear and stress resulting from a disaster can discourage pregnancies across national borders. The 1986 Chernobyl accident resulted in an unusually low birthrate in Italy nine months later.

Domestic violence made abused women choose abortion.

Levels of sexual activity have fallen. Those with young children and particularly school-age children report the largest declines in sex. There is a lack of opportunity, particularly for polyamorous active young people. Some people fear being unable to safely access pre-natal care or hospitals for deliveries.

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Will this bust be followed by a boom once the pandemic is over? Analysts look at history for clues.

Indeed, the Spanish flu pandemic, the Great Depression and the Second World War were followed by a baby boom, the last one giving us the term baby boomers. There are a few noteworthy differences, though.

In WWII, men had gone away on war. After the war, they reunited with their wives/partners and the boom happened. In the coronavirus pandemic, many couples were together, in fact locked in 24 hours.

Second, the 1918-1920 Spanish flu pandemic happened before contraceptives were born. Now in developed nations, most pregnancies are a choice rather than a surprise.

Third, Spanish flu pandemic was a health crisis. There is no record of it devastating economies. (Also because it coincided with the First World War, it was difficult to separate the economic impact of the pandemic and the war). The Great Depression, on the other hand, was an economic crisis. The current pandemic combines a health and an economic crisis. Its impact on reduced fertility is likely to be greater.

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It is not by chance that Joe Biden has included significant incentives for children in the latest stimulus package. Every year, each American child under six will receive an allowance of $3600 and there onwards $3000 annually until the 18th birthday. America and Europe already have declining populations. They can’t afford a baby bust.

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The picture in developing and poor nations is different. UN says the pandemic has caused 12 million women in 115 countries lose access to family planning services. This may result in 1.4 million unintended pregnancies.

India’s abrupt announcement of a national lockdown last year made migrants flee to their villages. They were united with their wives. Indian migrants usually meet their families once a year, for a month or so. India has never seen so many couples together for such a long time. Access to contraception, abortion and family planning was cut off.  The data is not yet out, but India is likely to have a baby boom.

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The potential simultaneous bizarre outcome of a baby bust in rich nations and an unwanted baby boom in poor nations will further change the demographic composition of the world.

Ravi