Corona Daily 015: Fake Corpses and Suspended parliaments

Six months ago, in “A Riotous January”, I described how 2021 had started with riots and violent protests in at least seven countries. This weekend’s Economist tells us how matters have become worse, particularly in middle income countries.

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Thailand has adopted a new form of protest. Fake corpses are spread across central Bangkok. White sacks are stuffed with hay, and sprayed with red paint to denote Thai covid victims. A giant portrait of Prayut Chan-o-cha, the Thai Prime Minister, is displayed next to the corpses. Protesters set fire to the PM’s portrait.

The protests began on 18 July, with the Delta variant spreading rapidly, causing Thailand’s worst wave. Only 5% of the population is fully vaccinated, hospitals are overwhelmed, the economy is sinking.

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The Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), a think tank based in Sydney, found that in 2020 civil unrest rose by 10%. It tabulated over 5,000 instances of pandemic-generated violence in 158 countries. After 2008, last year witnessed the most violent protests as well as peaceful demonstrations. In the first year of the pandemic, another NGO logged 51,549 demonstrations/riots.

In a paper “A vicious cycle: how pandemics lead to economic despair and Social unrest”, published in October 2020, the authors analysed data from 133 countries over the past twenty years. They found that social unrest starts to increase 12-14 months after the onset of an epidemic (meaning May 2021?) and peaks after two years (meaning March 2022?). This conclusion is based on epidemics such as Zika. Covid-19, being far more severe, longer and global, may produce worse disruption and after-effects.

The direct cause of protests, the paper says, is economic hardship. Earlier this month, I wrote about Cuba. A week later, on 11 July, thousands marched in more than 50 Cuban cities, chanting Freedom and overturning police vehicles. In the last sixty years, Cuba had never seen such a massive show of anti-government anger.  

In Belarus as well, the father of the nation Mr Lukashenko dismissed covid-19 as mass hysteria. It could be cured with vodka, a steam bath and riding a tractor, he said. The Byelorussians came out on the streets to stand up against the regime. Though they haven’t yet succeeded in toppling Lukashenko, the masses could sense solidarity and an opportunity to rebel.

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South Africa is in bad shape, too. Jacob Zuma, the jailed ex-president is trying to provoke his supporters to demonstrate. Protests this month culminated in mass looting and burning of shops and businesses. The main reason was the growing unemployment and poverty.

South Africans are sick of the draconian and sometimes silly restrictions. For a few months, buying “open-toed sandals” was banned. While rich Africans have well stocked cellars, the periodic bans on alcohol have deprived the poor of a key pleasure in life. When the riots happened this month, liquor shops were the first to be looted.

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In Malaysia, people hang white flags in windows to seek food and help.

Now the young Malaysians have started a black flag (Bendera Hitam) movement. The educated young are venting their frustration at the government’s incompetence. Like in many countries, delay in vaccine ordering, vaccine shortages, new waves, lockdowns, and the economic slump make people furious.

Meanwhile, this week; an emergency, a presidential rule, has been imposed on Tunisia (Tunisia appeared in my January article as well). Kais Saied has suspended parliament for thirty days, and sacked the Prime Minister. Ten years ago, Tunisia had succeeded in getting rid of its dictatorship. Ten governments in ten years have failed to reduce corruption or improve the economy. In the pandemic, the economy shrank by 8.6%. In the new wave, the health system has collapsed. Oxygen is in shortage and expensive. Every day, over 200 Tunisians are dying of covid-19.

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Freedom House, a watchdog, says 158 out of the 193 UN countries have placed new restrictions on public protests. Most governments are using Covid-19 as an excuse to lock up opposition and suppress dissent. While anti-government demonstrations are banned, the governing party is seen holding huge rallies in some countries.

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The mass protests would be worthwhile if they can topple a couple of dictatorships.

Ravi