Yesterday, British and Russian vaccine makers announced their plan to create a joint vaccine. In a few months, the world may see the sovereign Boris Johnson and the eternal Vladimir Putin triumphantly presenting the Sputnik-Oxford vaccine on TV.
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The Oxford/Astra Zeneca vaccine was leading in the
vaccine race for most of the year. It was cheap, traditional, easy to transport
and store (at 2c-8c). Britain ordered 100 million doses, 30 million to be delivered
by September. India’s Serum institute has gambled and produced millions of doses
without any approval. In May, USA’s Operation Warp Speed made its biggest
investment. Though AstraZeneca had little experience in vaccines, USA poured
$1.2 billion for development and production in exchange for 300 million doses.
AstraZeneca’s stock skyrocketed.
The Oxford/AZ vaccine was expected to have 60% worldwide
share among the Covid-19 vaccines.
Things went downhill there onwards. A British
participant developed neurological symptoms in July. The trial was paused, but
FDA not informed. The US trial was halted for 47 days, restarted only by end October.
Earlier, I have explained AstraZeneca’s errors and attempts to cover-up things.
The Lancet article published last week added another twist. Some participants
received the second dose after three months, instead of one month as planned.
This shows a high level of carelessness in clinical trials.
What is the solution found by the British company? To
join hands with the Russian vaccine maker.
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With Pfizer and Moderna reporting efficacy above 90%,
there is pressure on other vaccine makers to produce higher numbers. Oxford/AZ
in the best-case scenario is 70% effective. Russia’s Sputnik-V is reportedly 95%
effective, though the reports are not backed by any data.
Now, Oxford-AZ wants to mix and match those two
vaccines. This concept is known as a heterologous (rather than homologous)
boost. A person will receive the Oxford shot first and after a month the Sputnik
shot (or the other way round). Oxford uses a Chimpanzee adenovirus, whereas
Sputnik uses a human adenovirus. Such diversity, it is hoped, will produce a
greater and longer immune response.
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In business, the product itself is only part of the
consumer attraction. The price, reputation, advertising and other factors
influence demand. The Pfizer vaccine, though possibly an excellent product,
suffers from logistical problems. Trust in the vaccine is an important factor.
What’s the use of a superlative product, if people don’t trust it?
Russia and Soviet Union before that are not famous for
product quality. (Soviet microprocessors were the largest in the world, Zenit
cameras the heaviest and watches the fastest). I have already written about the
Gamaleya Institute not being able to produce a single effective vaccine.
In one of the great geopolitical puzzles, India has
been buying Russia’s Mig fighter aircraft for the past forty years. They
fall more than they fly. Every few months, a Mig crashes killing young
Indian pilots. (Today, Navy commander Nishant Singh was cremated. He died in a
Mig-29K crash). India doesn’t need enemies or wars, simply buying Migs does
the job. On the other hand, Russia’s deadliest nerve agent, Novichok, fails to
kill the targets. (Instead of using Novichok on them, former Russian spies or
opposition leaders can simply be flown in a Mig-29.)
With products impacting life-and-death, the reputation
of Russian brands is suspect. Vaccines are one of those products.
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That is the reason I find the British company’s strategy
bizarre. It is like trying to combine two average minds to create a genius. Oxford/AstraZeneca
appears to be confused and desperate. Their vaccine was meant to be the savior
of the poor world, the most widely used covid vaccine in Asia and Africa. Sputnik-V
has not reported scientific data and is not approved outside Russia. New large
trials will need to be run that will take months. In covid times, vaccine
manufacturers must keep things simple. Joining hands with Sputnik may discourage
regulators to approve it. Many countries may prefer Chinese vaccines. China’s
product quality reputation is not as bad as Russia’s.
Ravi
My head is spinning!
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