Corona Daily 043: Build Back Better

Last year in March, Bombay, like most of the world, suddenly joined a historic natural experiment. Roads became deserted, planes stopped flying, we could see the horizon with the smog clearing up, world’s most crowded city trains became static, not only shops but factories and mills were shut, noise levels plummeted. Air felt, and was, cleaner. In a selfish way, some people secretly prayed for a continued lockdown.

Climate scientists became excited. They could now see how CO2 was changing. The arithmetic was simple. If a severe lockdown in a city brought carbon emissions down by x million tons, the city generated that many tons of carbon emissions during that period.            

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French climate scientists showed the calculations were more nuanced. Even with uniformly strict lockdowns, there were wide variations in emission reductions in various cities of the world.

They compared Paris with New York. In March 2020, Paris saw a drop of 72% as compared to normal, while New York City only 10%. Why such a huge difference?

Professor Philippe Ciais explained that Paris doesn’t have any fossil fuel power plants, or industrial sites, New York City still does. The other key difference is the way buildings are heated. In France, 70% of buildings are heated with clean nuclear based electricity. New York City heats with fuels; and much of its CO2 emissions are related to the heating of buildings. Even during severe lockdowns, these buildings continued to be heated the same way, with no reduction in emissions. The fossil fuel plants within the New York City limits were the major culprit. Cars made up a much smaller proportion of overall energy use.

Even when New York City was completely shut down, it continued to emit more than 80% of the previous level. Personal behavior in New York or many other megacities is not going to fix the carbon emission problem. The way energy is generated and transmitted is crucial. Governments will need to systematically make energy cleaner.

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2008 was the earlier major crash for the European electricity industry. That was not health related, but a financial crisis. Demand for power fell sharply. Post recession, when the demand picked up, solar and wind supplied the growth. Europe’s use of fossil fuels never returned to the pre-2008 levels.

Experts believe the same thing can happen with the coronavirus pandemic. It can trigger governments to move to cleaner energy.

C40 is a climate change network of the world’s megacities. Mark Watts, its head, feels the change will be driven by cities, rather than countries. During the pandemic, mayors of big cities have been meeting virtually twice a week to discuss ways to manage a green recovery.

Sally Capp, the mayor of Melbourne, was already committed to climate action. However, covid-19 has made her greatly speed up her environmental improvement plans. She is rolling out her bicycle lane plans in twelve months, originally planned to take ten years. Melbourne has committed to planting 150,000 trees, shrubs and grasses in the next six months.

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The worldwide shutdown was imagined to be the biggest carbon crash ever recorded. By December 2020, the global carbon emissions went down by 7%. However, they are recovering much faster than the recovery of the society and economy. Unfortunately, the pandemic pause will have no real effect in the short or long term. Scientists now estimate that by 2030, the global temperature will be 0.01 C lower as a result of Covid-19. In short, negligible.

Since the mid-1850s, carbon emissions have driven temperatures up by 1 C. If CO2 levels are not dramatically reduced, they are expected to rise by 3-4 C by the end of this century. Today’s toddlers will experience many genuinely unbearable summers.

Several findings suggest climate is as serious a crisis as covid-19. There is a sense that not individuals, but governments are the biggest actors in the climate change process.   

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The covid-19 emergency prompted most governments, albeit reluctantly, to put health and lives ahead of the economy. Governments need to do the same for the climate change crisis.

Ravi