Corona Daily 022: Are Children Next? (Conclusion)

British Scientists have conducted some of the most comprehensive studies of Covid-19’s impact on children.

A full year study covering March 2020 to February 2021 found that 251 children were admitted to ICU with covid (one in 50,000 chance). During the period, 25 children died. With 12 million children in England, 25 deaths translate into a mortality rate of 2 per million.

 If you tell a mother, any mother, that the chance of her child dying of covid is two out of a million, she wouldn’t want to hear it. She is concerned about her child, and would like the probability to be Zero.

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The American CDC has presented comparative statistics of the annual deaths among American children. Covid-19 death data covers 10 April 2020-10 April 2021, whereas all other data is from 2018.

For the age group 1-4, death by drowning (28 per million), vehicle accidents (23), homicide (22), cancer (20), even flu (8) are more lethal than Covid (2).

For the 5-14 age group, suicide (15 per million) gets added to the list.

For infants under 1 year old, the biggest deaths happen by suffocation (254 per million), followed by heart diseases (105), murder (70), flu (46).

In essence, parents should take more care to ensure the infant doesn’t get suffocated, and very young children don’t get drowned or killed in road accidents. Even flu causes more deaths among children than Covid.

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If the risk of a child dying is 2 in a million, the risk of damage to them because of closure of schools, inability to play with other children, obesity is 100%. Children in the developing world are likely to miss three whole academic years. This is far more damaging to their psychological and physical wellbeing than Covid-19.

Some scientists have raised the issue of possible “long covid” among children. Will children suffer long-term symptoms over months or years? Long Covid is a concern more relevant to adults, and in the coming days I will present the available data and analysis. Currently, there is no robust data to suggest such a risk exists for children. Of course, Covid-19 is a fresh disease, and there can’t be enough long-term data yet. Missing school for three years, in my view, will have a long-term impact.

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Last week, WHO released the data of children missing regular childhood vaccines. In 2020, 23 million children missed out on basic vaccines, the highest number since 2009.

In India, 1.4 million children had missed the first dose of DTP-1 (diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis) in 2019. In 2020, 3.04 million children missed this dose. India excels at vaccine manufacture, distribution and children’s vaccine campaigns. Three million children missing DTP-1 is a far bigger concern than Covid risk for children.

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Vaccines for 12+ are already approved in the USA. Pediatric covid vaccines are being tested and likely to be approved in 2022. The WHO chief Tedros Adhanom said wealthier countries vaccinating children at the expense of health care workers and high-risk groups in other countries is ethically wrong. When nation-states exist, this argument doesn’t hold water. When available for children including infants, North America and Europe will reserve as much stock (and more) as will be needed.

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Based on the research and reports read so far, following is my conclusion. (This is a personal view).

All schools should be re-opened for in-person education. Teachers and other staff, by now fully vaccinated, don’t face the sort of risks they faced a year ago. Where necessary, children can wear masks and follow other restrictions based on the local infection rates.

Covid pediatric vaccines, when available, should be prioritized for children with health complications and lower immunity. Many children who died of covid had life-limiting or underlying conditions. Immuno-compromised children may benefit from covid vaccines.

Developing countries must re-focus on basic vaccination programs such as the DTP. These are proven vaccines offering life-long immunity.

My feeling is that the pandemic will be over before pediatric covid vaccines become available globally. By then covid will be as mild as flu, and only those countries and parents who consider flu vaccines essential for children may consider the covid vaccines.  

Ravi