Corona Daily 015: Fake Corpses and Suspended parliaments

Six months ago, in “A Riotous January”, I described how 2021 had started with riots and violent protests in at least seven countries. This weekend’s Economist tells us how matters have become worse, particularly in middle income countries.

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Thailand has adopted a new form of protest. Fake corpses are spread across central Bangkok. White sacks are stuffed with hay, and sprayed with red paint to denote Thai covid victims. A giant portrait of Prayut Chan-o-cha, the Thai Prime Minister, is displayed next to the corpses. Protesters set fire to the PM’s portrait.

The protests began on 18 July, with the Delta variant spreading rapidly, causing Thailand’s worst wave. Only 5% of the population is fully vaccinated, hospitals are overwhelmed, the economy is sinking.

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The Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), a think tank based in Sydney, found that in 2020 civil unrest rose by 10%. It tabulated over 5,000 instances of pandemic-generated violence in 158 countries. After 2008, last year witnessed the most violent protests as well as peaceful demonstrations. In the first year of the pandemic, another NGO logged 51,549 demonstrations/riots.

In a paper “A vicious cycle: how pandemics lead to economic despair and Social unrest”, published in October 2020, the authors analysed data from 133 countries over the past twenty years. They found that social unrest starts to increase 12-14 months after the onset of an epidemic (meaning May 2021?) and peaks after two years (meaning March 2022?). This conclusion is based on epidemics such as Zika. Covid-19, being far more severe, longer and global, may produce worse disruption and after-effects.

The direct cause of protests, the paper says, is economic hardship. Earlier this month, I wrote about Cuba. A week later, on 11 July, thousands marched in more than 50 Cuban cities, chanting Freedom and overturning police vehicles. In the last sixty years, Cuba had never seen such a massive show of anti-government anger.  

In Belarus as well, the father of the nation Mr Lukashenko dismissed covid-19 as mass hysteria. It could be cured with vodka, a steam bath and riding a tractor, he said. The Byelorussians came out on the streets to stand up against the regime. Though they haven’t yet succeeded in toppling Lukashenko, the masses could sense solidarity and an opportunity to rebel.

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South Africa is in bad shape, too. Jacob Zuma, the jailed ex-president is trying to provoke his supporters to demonstrate. Protests this month culminated in mass looting and burning of shops and businesses. The main reason was the growing unemployment and poverty.

South Africans are sick of the draconian and sometimes silly restrictions. For a few months, buying “open-toed sandals” was banned. While rich Africans have well stocked cellars, the periodic bans on alcohol have deprived the poor of a key pleasure in life. When the riots happened this month, liquor shops were the first to be looted.

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In Malaysia, people hang white flags in windows to seek food and help.

Now the young Malaysians have started a black flag (Bendera Hitam) movement. The educated young are venting their frustration at the government’s incompetence. Like in many countries, delay in vaccine ordering, vaccine shortages, new waves, lockdowns, and the economic slump make people furious.

Meanwhile, this week; an emergency, a presidential rule, has been imposed on Tunisia (Tunisia appeared in my January article as well). Kais Saied has suspended parliament for thirty days, and sacked the Prime Minister. Ten years ago, Tunisia had succeeded in getting rid of its dictatorship. Ten governments in ten years have failed to reduce corruption or improve the economy. In the pandemic, the economy shrank by 8.6%. In the new wave, the health system has collapsed. Oxygen is in shortage and expensive. Every day, over 200 Tunisians are dying of covid-19.

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Freedom House, a watchdog, says 158 out of the 193 UN countries have placed new restrictions on public protests. Most governments are using Covid-19 as an excuse to lock up opposition and suppress dissent. While anti-government demonstrations are banned, the governing party is seen holding huge rallies in some countries.

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The mass protests would be worthwhile if they can topple a couple of dictatorships.

Ravi 

Corona Daily 016: A Violinist and a Nigerian

Violinist Philip Payton, like most musicians who play in an orchestra, was neither rich nor poor. Playing regularly in Disney’s musical “Frozen” allowed him to pay his bills, and have a summer vacation. March 2020 shut down the orchestra. Philip applied for unemployment insurance. From April, he started receiving $504 a week, and an extra $600 authorized by the Congress. That is the good thing about America. It takes care of every citizen in crisis times. Philip could live normally. Locked up in the house, his expenses had come down anyway.

In the middle of September, the weekly payments suddenly stopped. The pandemic was on, the orchestra was shut, no reason why payments should have stopped. Philip contacted New York’s Department of Labor. He was told the payments had stopped because he was claiming the allowance in another state. For two months, nobody told him what the whole thing was about. He stopped receiving any money.  

By January 2021, his only success was to learn the name of the state where he was reportedly claiming the unemployment allowance –Texas. It took him another couple of months to reach the Texas commission. The commission told Philip he was on the black list of people who had tried to claim the benefit in several states.

In all, Philip Payton didn’t get his unemployment allowance for eight months, though he was out of job for the entire period. His name had a “fraud block” placed on it.

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Abidemi Rufai works as a senior special assistant to the governor of a Nigerian state. On 14 May 2021, with a first-class cabin boarding pass in hand, he was ready to board the flight at John.F. Kennedy international airport. Rufai’s brother lives in New York. Before he could board, FBI agents arrested him, and charged him with stealing more than $350,000 in unemployment benefits from Washington State alone.

Rufai used stolen identities to claim unemployment benefits in 11 states, including more than 100 applications in Washington. State auditors found 250,000 potentially bogus claims totaling $1.1 billion.

Rufai used variations of his email sandytangy58@gmail.com. Gmail allows its user to place, move or delete the dots in any place. The Gmail owner still receives emails irrespective of the dot placement. Rufai modified the mail address into variations like san.dyta.ngy58@gmail.com or sa.nd.ytang.y58@gmail.com .The state servers treated each as a separate person, allowing such addresses to be filed in several states. Rufai could still carry out the correspondence from a single email thanks to the Gmail feature.

Rufai and his allies asked the states to pay benefits into “Green Dot” online banking accounts, a popular fintech platform reportedly loved by criminals. Alternatively, they used “money mules” ( Last September, I wrote about this mechanism).

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FBI found in Rufai’s email account a mind-boggling amount of stolen information, including passwords to people’s email accounts, security questions and answers, driver’s licence numbers, bank accounts and routing numbers, and more than 1000 stolen tax returns.

Rufai has pleaded not guilty. In the bail application filed in June, his lawyer said Rufai has no criminal record. The prosecutors are deliberately offering false information and exaggerating the alleged crimes. They are trying to malign the reputation of a well-respected Nigerian government official.

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ProPublica is a New York based organization that produces investigative journalism in the public interest. It has won five Pulitzer prizes for its stories.

This week, ProPublica has published a detailed report on how unemployment insurance fraud exploded during the pandemic. They feel this is perhaps the largest fraud wave in history. For those interested or curious, I recommend reading the article by Cezary Podkul in ProPublica.

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Ravi 

Corona Daily 017: Pandemic Playmates

Only a fence separates the homes of Benjamin Olson and Mary O’Neill. Benjamin is 2 years old, and Mary will celebrate her 100th birthday in December this year. Benjamin lives with his parents. Mary lives on her own since she lost her husband 37 years ago. Though the Olson family lives next to Mary for the past twelve years, they have had little interaction.

Before Benjamin could talk, the pandemic began. At first, Mary began waving at the toddler from behind her window. Once the lockdown started, with nowhere to go and no one to meet, she started spending more time in her backyard to get fresh air. On the other side of the fence, she saw Benjamin walking his first steps. Mary started saying hello to him.

Mary uses a cane. Once, Benjamin threw a ball that landed close to the fence. With her cane, Mary reached over the fence and hit the ball towards him. Then Benjamin threw it back. That’s how their first sports activity began. Mary called it the Cane-ball game.

In a few weeks, Benjamin learned to open the gate separating him from Mary.

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In the spring, Mary gifted Benjamin her late son’s toy truck collection. It was lying in the basement for years. Benjamin loved the toys, and he began to recognize colours from the toys.

After receiving the toys, Benjamin decided to give Mary something in return. He grasped a pile of dirt and with a smile handed it over to Mary. In his little hands, sometimes he carries leaves, sometimes dirt.

Mary talked to him all the time. Despite Benjamin’s age, she found his understanding was excellent. He didn’t talk much, but it was clear he understood what she was saying.

Recently, Benjamin started speaking more words. He called her “Mimi”. He would say Mimi, and his parents knew their son was planning to visit the neighbor.

Playing with a two year old, Mary rediscovered her childlike spirit. The pair is often seen playing with bubbles and water guns.

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Mary, who lives in Minneapolis, has two children, four grandchildren and six great-grandchildren. However, all of them live in other states, far from Mary. In the pandemic, it was impossible for her to see any of them.

If not for her young friend, the months of pandemic isolation would have been a lot lonelier. ‘I wouldn’t have had anything to do’, Mary said. Playing with Benjamin was something she looked forward to every day.

Mary keeps careful count of Benjamin’s milk teeth, and progress of his walk and talk. He is the nearest thing to a grandchild, she says.

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Recently, NBC interviewed Mary and Benjamin’s mother, Sarah Olson.

Mary said she missed Benjamin on the days when it was too cold or rainy to go outside. She looked forward to meet her young friend every day.

Sarah said her son’s friendship with the neighbor was formed naturally. “We didn’t have to work on it at all, it just happened really naturally.” Sarah said she was teary-eyed when listening to Mary. Mary is fiercely independent, and doesn’t show emotions easily. “Mary really is Benjamin’s best friend. She’s his first best friend.”

The Olson family has been invited to Mary’s 100th birthday. Her friend, 98 years younger than her, will surely bring her more leaves and dirt as a birthday gift.

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Ravi 

Corona Daily 018: Chaos in Dushanbe

Last week, on 20 July, the younger sister of the president of Tajikistan died. Her three sons immediately attacked the country’s health minister and a senior doctor. The two severely beaten gentlemen sustained serious injuries, have been hospitalized, and not been seen since.

Tajikistan is one of the ex-Soviet Muslim republics north of Afghanistan. Dushanbe is the capital. Emomali Rahoman, the 68-year old dictator has been ruling the country since 1994. He has nine children from the first lady Azizmo Asadullayeva. Rahoman’s extended family and network of friends control every business, from airlines to banks. Opposition parties are either banned as extremist, or the opposition leaders assassinated. Rustam Emomali, the president’s son will replace his father when he eventually dies.

In April 2020, when other countries were locked down, president Rahoman continued to appear at large public gatherings, surrounded by dozens of women dressed in Tajikistan’s traditional attire.

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On 26 January this year, president Rahoman made a remarkable announcement in the parliament. Tajikistan became the first country in central Asia to eradicate covid-19. All cases had either recovered or died.

Tajik media is owned by the state. Independent television and radio stations focus on entertainment programmes. They lose their licences if they try to air independent views. Radio Ozodi (liberty) run by RadioFreeEurope tries to broadcast real news about Tajikistan from abroad. Some brave Tajiks anonymously write comments on social media.

The government said that for half a year, from 1 January to 20 June, there was not a single covid case in the country. The health ministry spokesman Emomali Mirzoyev told Radio Ozodi that people may have symptoms, but the tests were all negative. “Many people, during the heat of early June, drank excessively cold and even ice-cold water and swam in cold water.” That was the reason they were running high temperatures, nothing to do with the coronavirus.

Some unpatriotic people tried to post their positive results online.

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On 5 July, President Rahoman’s mother-in-law Uzbekbi Asadulloeva, 88, died of covid-19. This was not officially announced, but the local media reported it.

Few days later, a prominent imam called for prayers for the president’s son-in-law, a powerful business tycoon, Shamsullo Sohibov, who was down with covid-19. He was reportedly flown in the president’s plane to Germany for treatment.

The president’s influential brother-in-law Hassan Asadullozoda runs a bank, the national airline and many other businesses. He is reported to be in serious condition as a result of the coronavirus.

President’s younger sister Qurbonbi Rahmonova, was infected by the same eradicated virus. Medical experts from Germany, Russia and Uzbekistan were flown in to treat her. However, on 20 July, she succumbed to covid-19.

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Right after her death, and before the burial on the following day, her three sons went to attack Jamoliddin Abdullozoda, the health minister. Once he was thrashed to their satisfaction and sent to the hospital, the three got hold of Kholmuhammad Rahimzoda, the chief of the presidential hospital, and assaulted him. He landed in the ICU of the hospital he headed. Several other doctors escaped with minor injuries.

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In the news conference on Monday, 26 July the deputy health minister Gafur Mukhsinzoda blamed the reported wave of infections in Tajikistan on the delta variant, which he said probably entered Tajikistan from Russia. He offered no explanation for the absence of his boss, the health minister. He was not aware as to why he was not present at the press conference. When asked about the low numbers of cases and deaths in Tajikistan, he said all countries in the world had problems with counting the cases accurately.

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Though the presidential palace is infected, president Rahoman is reportedly fine and going around his business as usual. Coronavirus has so far maintained social distancing from all the dictators.

Ravi 

Corona Daily 019: A Minor Consent

An interesting debate has started in the USA this month. So interesting, it has gone to a Law Court.

In October 2020, the Washington D.C. municipality passed an Act that allows children as young as 11 to get vaccines without their parents’ knowledge if a doctor determines the child is capable of informed consent. The law was passed before any coronavirus vaccines had become available. Now, as you know, USA has vaccines available for anybody 12 and above. There are several parents who for religious or other reasons don’t want their child to get the shot. But what if the child wants to get the vaccine?

Last week, four parents of children who attend the Washington D.C. public schools sued the mayor and the municipality saying the law subverts the right and duty of parents to make informed decisions about whether their children should receive vaccinations. The law violates their religious liberty and their fundamental right to direct the care and upbringing of their children.

The parents are particularly upset because the new law allows the doctors to leave students’ immunization records blank (so that the parents don’t know about the vaccine).

The lawsuit was brought by the anti-vaccine activist, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr, one of the disinformation dozen I wrote about earlier.

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Such laws were mainly created for the HPV or meningitis vaccine. HPV vaccine protects teenagers against a sexually transmitted infection that can cause cancer. Teenagers having sex and wanting to protect themselves by taking a shot, rarely wish their parents to know about their sexual life. In developed countries, as a rule, young teenagers make their own decisions about contraception and sexually transmitted infections. The doctors, schools and authorities are usually protected for advising or treating the children without the parents’ knowledge. Courts have also allowed minors to seek treatment for anxiety or depression when a parent objects to psychotherapy.

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Elizabeth’s (who allowed the newspaper to publish only her middle name) parents are divorced. She is 17. Her mother supports vaccinating her daughter, but the father is a staunch anti-vaxx. He has threatened her mother against attempts to vaccinate Elizabeth. The laws of the state require Elizabeth has consent from both parents. She somehow managed to get vaccinated. She has kept it a secret from both.

Now she is in a real fix. Her school requires all students to get vaccinated for the fall semester. Her father has started a fight with the school, he may even go to the court. If the school learns she is vaccinated, she will be disciplined for deceiving vaccinators.

The web is full of such stories. Isabella, another teenager, whose mother didn’t allow her said, “it’s my body.” The mother said, “It’s my body until you’re 18.”

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Kelly Danielpour, 18, daughter of a pediatric neurosurgeon and an intellectual property lawyer, has started a website VaxTeen.org. It offers guides to state consent laws, links to clinics, resources on information about covid-19 and advice for how teenagers can engage parents. Kelly started the website before covid, when she realized most children were not aware of the legal rights they have or about recommended vaccine schedules.

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In the UK, where the issue will arise once vaccines are approved for 12+, the law seems to be clearer.

Children below 16 can consent to their own treatment or vaccines if they are believed to have enough intelligence, competence and understanding to fully appreciate what is involved in their treatment. This is known as being “Gillick competent.” (Ironically, the test is named after Victoria Gillick, an activist, who campaigned against a minor’s consent.)

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16, 18, 21 are arbitrary numbers defining legal adulthood. Every new generation is physically and intellectually maturing earlier. The debate is not merely about vaccines. How long do parents have a right to insist their children are vegetarians/non-vegetarians? Religious/atheists?

If in such matters 12 year old children hold opposing views to their parents, they are probably mature enough to take their own decisions. In this, civilized laws and courts should support the child.

Ravi 

Corona Daily 020: Covid and Manhood

In yesterday’s Washington Post, Gary from Virginia State asks: “Does Covid-19 cause erectile dysfunction?” (More commonly known as impotence).

I checked if this was in the newspaper’s humour section. It wasn’t. Usually in British tabloids, people address their most personal and intimate problems to Agony aunt or Ecstasy aunt or someone like that. It was surprising to see the question in the coronavirus section. “Possibly”, replied the Washington post reporter. “Not certain, but erectile dysfunction may be one of the rare covid symptoms”.

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Pandemic has triggered a high level of creativity among researchers. There are three research papers which as a matter-of-fact study the relationship between covid-19 and a phallus.

In March, seven Italian scientists decided to find out if Covid-19 causes impotence. Believe it or not, the title of the paper is: “Mask up to keep it up.”

 The group started an online research project called Sex@COVID study. It was an anonymous questionnaire to investigate the psychological, relational, and sexual health of Italian subjects. In total, 6821 Italians (4177 males and 2644 females) age range 21-44 took part. All of them provided informed consent, and the local Ethical committee approved the study.

985 sexually active men were identified, 25 of them reported they had tested positive for Covid-19. SHIM (Sexual Health Inventory for Men) alternatively known as IIEF (International Index for Erectile Function) is the clinical measure. Scores of 21 or below suggest ED (a man’s inability); scores 22-25 are considered normal.

Scientific method requires presence of experiment and control groups. Once the 25 Covid positive Italian men were identified online, the researchers selected 75 negative men (from among the 985 sexually active men), making sure that the negative and positive men were similar in age, body mass index, physical and mental health. (Don’t know what questions the Italian females answered. Maybe they had to vouch for their partners’ functionality or lack of it).

The prevalence of ED was higher in the men who had covid-19 (28%) as compared to men who didn’t. (9%).

The Italian researchers also suggest the reverse correlation. ED, it seems, can be accompanied by a range of other risks such as diabetes, hypertension. That makes the ED men more susceptible to Covid-19. In short, erectile dysfunction can be both a cause and consequence of Covid-19.

One hypothesis advanced by the team was that covid-19 might interfere with the levels of testosterone.

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In March 2021, two scientists from Texas published a paper called “Testosterone’s role in COVID-19”.

Why are males, and elderly males in particular dying disproportionately in the pandemic? Does it have to do with the falling levels of testosterone in aged males?

This pair of researchers suggests men with low testosterone may benefit from testosterone replacement therapy.

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The third relevant paper was published in May 2021 by a group of Miami scientists. The title: “histopathological, immunohistochemical, and ultrastructural study of the Human Penis.

This bunch didn’t rely on any online survey. They actually collected penile tissues from patients undergoing surgery for penile surgery for severe ED. They found two men with a history of Covid infection, and two men who never had covid. (All four men had severe ED).

The researchers proudly claim their study was the first to demonstrate the presence of the covid-19 virus in the penis long after the initial infection. They also suggest Covid can contribute to ED. They recommend further studies to evaluate the mechanisms of how covid-19 leads to ED.

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Honestly, I think the papers have entertainment rather than any scientific value. To give sexual dysfunction scores based on what anonymous men and women say online is amusing. In my view, such studies are an outcome of bored (and unemployed) researchers and bored people online answering their questions.

If you are proud of your mastery of the English language, please read those papers. They will make you humble. Look at this sample: “The testicular injury could be a consequence of alterations in the coagulative status, resulting in development of ischemia at a microvascular level. Independently of the etiology, it can lead to a development of a form of hypergonadotropic hypogonadism.”

Stephen Colbert, the American TV comedian, when talking about the result of those studies quipped: “The doctors really mean it when they say the hard part is over.”

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Ravi 

Corona Daily 021: The ROC Swimmer

Ilya Borodin, 18, according to his family and coaches, is a born swimmer. He belongs to a sport family; his father plays volleyball and practices shooting. His mother excelled in basketball. Inspired by Ilya, his younger brother also trains long hours in the water, dreaming of Olympic gold medals, just like Ilya does.

Ilya Borodin has been swimming since the age of seven. His singular focus was the 2020 Olympic gold, making his family and country proud. When watching earlier Olympics on TV, he imagined himself on the podium, a gold medal around his neck, the Russian anthem playing, and the Russian flag flying high.  

Since 2013, when Tokyo was selected as the venue for the 2020 Olympics, Ilya had often Googled Tokyo and Japan. Would it be too hot in July for the swimmers? What sort of food can one eat in Japan? How expensive is Tokyo? As a member of the strong Russian contingent, he didn’t need to worry. He had the ability to get gold medals, and the first place where he would get them was special.

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In December 2017, Ilya Borodin spent a few sleepless nights. Most Russian athletes did. For its state sponsored doping programme, the IOC (International Olympic Committee) suspended Russia. Ilya was clean, many Russian athletes were clean, but what happens if Russia itself is banned?

Over the next two years, the Russian athletes lived on hope. Surely Russia was a superpower and it was difficult to imagine no Russians in the Olympic Games. The World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) completed its investigations in 2019. WADA found that the Russian authorities had manipulated the doping data to protect athletes who had participated in Russia’s state-sponsored doping scheme. In December 2019, WADA banned Russia for four years, sending Ilya Borodin and others into chronic depression. In a few weeks, the coronavirus pandemic started. Was Russia so lucky that the 2020 Olympics would be cancelled altogether, making the doping ban irrelevant? Ilya wanted the Olympics to happen, with Russia an active participant. 

Russia appealed. Meanwhile the Tokyo Olympics was postponed to summer 2021. In December 2020, the ‘international court of arbitration for sport’ gave its verdict. The ban on Russia remained, but clean athletes like Ilya Borodin would be allowed to take part as “neutral athletes”. It was agreed they would be from “ROC”.

ROC is not the Republic of Congo, but the Russian Olympic Committee. The court said ROC can be used, but not its full form, because it has the word Russian in it. Neither Russia’s flag nor anthem can be used anywhere.

This week, when an ROC neutral athlete wins a medal, Pyotr Tchaikovsky’s Piano Concerto No.1 will be heard in place of the Russian anthem.

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Ilya Borodin got back to his winning ways. In the 400 m individual medley, he was the Russian champion in 2020 as well as 2021. Before the Olympics, he won gold at Budapest, winning the European championship. His timing matched with Michael Phelps’ when Phelps was his age.

In Russia, supply of vaccines far exceeds demand. Like most Russians, Ilya didn’t know what was more dangerous - taking two shots of Sputnik V or not taking them. He decided not to take them.

Vladivostok is seven times zones and nine hours flying away from Moscow. Japan is only 1,000 km away from here. For acclimatization, Russia decided to take all the ROC athletes to Vladivostok for a few days. They all lived in a bubble. Ilya was wearing a mask even in the hotel lift.

His first test was negative, just like everybody else’s. He tested positive the next day. Absolutely no symptoms. He was in his best physical form. It must be a false positive, everyone thought. Over the next two days, one after another, he did three tests. All of them were positive.

The large ROC delegation left for Tokyo, with the exception of Ilya Borodin. The doctor checked him, but couldn’t prescribe any medicine. Ilya is now isolated in his Vladivostok hotel room. Will he watch the swimming races on TV, he was asked. He couldn’t answer that question.

Ravi 

Corona Daily 022: Are Children Next? (Conclusion)

British Scientists have conducted some of the most comprehensive studies of Covid-19’s impact on children.

A full year study covering March 2020 to February 2021 found that 251 children were admitted to ICU with covid (one in 50,000 chance). During the period, 25 children died. With 12 million children in England, 25 deaths translate into a mortality rate of 2 per million.

 If you tell a mother, any mother, that the chance of her child dying of covid is two out of a million, she wouldn’t want to hear it. She is concerned about her child, and would like the probability to be Zero.

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The American CDC has presented comparative statistics of the annual deaths among American children. Covid-19 death data covers 10 April 2020-10 April 2021, whereas all other data is from 2018.

For the age group 1-4, death by drowning (28 per million), vehicle accidents (23), homicide (22), cancer (20), even flu (8) are more lethal than Covid (2).

For the 5-14 age group, suicide (15 per million) gets added to the list.

For infants under 1 year old, the biggest deaths happen by suffocation (254 per million), followed by heart diseases (105), murder (70), flu (46).

In essence, parents should take more care to ensure the infant doesn’t get suffocated, and very young children don’t get drowned or killed in road accidents. Even flu causes more deaths among children than Covid.

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If the risk of a child dying is 2 in a million, the risk of damage to them because of closure of schools, inability to play with other children, obesity is 100%. Children in the developing world are likely to miss three whole academic years. This is far more damaging to their psychological and physical wellbeing than Covid-19.

Some scientists have raised the issue of possible “long covid” among children. Will children suffer long-term symptoms over months or years? Long Covid is a concern more relevant to adults, and in the coming days I will present the available data and analysis. Currently, there is no robust data to suggest such a risk exists for children. Of course, Covid-19 is a fresh disease, and there can’t be enough long-term data yet. Missing school for three years, in my view, will have a long-term impact.

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Last week, WHO released the data of children missing regular childhood vaccines. In 2020, 23 million children missed out on basic vaccines, the highest number since 2009.

In India, 1.4 million children had missed the first dose of DTP-1 (diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis) in 2019. In 2020, 3.04 million children missed this dose. India excels at vaccine manufacture, distribution and children’s vaccine campaigns. Three million children missing DTP-1 is a far bigger concern than Covid risk for children.

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Vaccines for 12+ are already approved in the USA. Pediatric covid vaccines are being tested and likely to be approved in 2022. The WHO chief Tedros Adhanom said wealthier countries vaccinating children at the expense of health care workers and high-risk groups in other countries is ethically wrong. When nation-states exist, this argument doesn’t hold water. When available for children including infants, North America and Europe will reserve as much stock (and more) as will be needed.

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Based on the research and reports read so far, following is my conclusion. (This is a personal view).

All schools should be re-opened for in-person education. Teachers and other staff, by now fully vaccinated, don’t face the sort of risks they faced a year ago. Where necessary, children can wear masks and follow other restrictions based on the local infection rates.

Covid pediatric vaccines, when available, should be prioritized for children with health complications and lower immunity. Many children who died of covid had life-limiting or underlying conditions. Immuno-compromised children may benefit from covid vaccines.

Developing countries must re-focus on basic vaccination programs such as the DTP. These are proven vaccines offering life-long immunity.

My feeling is that the pandemic will be over before pediatric covid vaccines become available globally. By then covid will be as mild as flu, and only those countries and parents who consider flu vaccines essential for children may consider the covid vaccines.  

Ravi 

Corona Daily 023: Are Children Next? (Part One)

In April, an American family of three flew to Hawaii for a long awaited holiday. The parents were fully vaccinated. Their ten-year old son was not eligible for any vaccine. In Hawaii, the boy developed covid symptoms, and in a few days, died. It must be mentioned the child had underlying health conditions.

Anywhere in the world, where vaccines are available, adults are rushing to get vaccinated. The USA has given emergency approval for shots for everyone from 12 years of age. In most places, young people have difficult access to vaccination, and teenagers, young children, and infants remain unvaccinated. The age ‘de-escalation’ is common for clinical trials. However, for a long time, we may have a situation of vaccinated parents and unvaccinated children. Last year, adults were worrying about their elderly parents. Now, they are worried about the children instead.

With countries gradually freeing themselves, covid guidance may require kids to wear masks indoors, while parents lead a normal pre-pandemic life. On flights, the airhostess asks the passengers to first take care of themselves in case of low oxygen. First mask yourself and then think about putting mask on your toddler. For most parents, that is counter to their natural reflex. The vaccine strategy has followed a similar line, inoculating adults before children.

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Of course, the risk for children and young people is low this time. But it is not the same with every disease. When in 1950s, the polio epidemic was raging; it essentially sent children to wheelchairs and made many wear lifelong crutches. The alternative name for polio was ‘infantile paralysis’.

This month, after decreases in the past few months, child cases are increasing in America. This week 23,500 child cases were added. In states like West Virginia, proportion of cases among people under 20 has gone from 16% to 26%. In most states of America, every fourth infected person is likely to be young, under 20. Just one year ago, child covid cases made up only 3% of the USA total.

There are three main reasons for this. With adults getting vaccinated, their proportion from the infected population is going down. As it becomes difficult for the virus to penetrate the adult population, it tries to attack the younger lot. Secondly, new covid-19 variants, delta in particular, are spreading among the young. Third, in developed nations, in-person schools have started.

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In the USA, until 22 July 2021, there have been 34 million covid-19 cases and 609,000 deaths. These figures include 4.09 million cases and 346 deaths among children.

Children have suffered severely in Brazil, Indonesia and India.

The Brazilian children have complained of severe muscle aches, diarrhea, coughing, abdominal pain. As per the official data, 2,216 children aged between 0-9 died from covid. That includes 1,397 babies under one year of age. In the 0-9 age group, 67,000 children have been hospitalized. In 2021, a lot more young people are dying in Brazil as compared to 2020.

In Brazil as well as India, diagnosis of covid-19 in children often comes too late. It is assumed there is little or no risk for children. As a result, they are severely unwell, and treatment is more difficult, by the time they are admitted to a hospital.

India’s second wave saw a large number of positive cases among young kids and adolescents.

 One of the theories as to why children are less susceptible to the virus is that they have fewer receptors known as ACE2 in their respiratory tract. This is the entry point for the coronavirus which clings to those receptors. During India’s first wave, this was assumed to be the reason why cases among the young were low.

The strain in the second wave apparently bypasses this apparatus required for entry, and is able to evade the immune system better. The number of cases as well as the severity in infection has increased.

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(C0ntinued tomorrow)

Ravi 

Corona Daily 024: Did Not Start (DNS)

The Tokyo Olympics 2020 will finally start tomorrow. It is the first Olympic with no spectators at all. The Olympians present on the ground are not allowed to sing or shout to cheer their teammates, but they may clap instead. Winners are discouraged from excessive celebrations. Sportsmen and staff are urged to use Japan’s COCA exposure notification app.

Nearly 93,000 overseas athletes and officials are kept separate from the local population. Athletes are permitted to leave accommodation to go to the Official games venues. They are prohibited from using public transportation. No sightseeing, bars, restaurants, clubs or mingling with Olympians in other places, please. Athletes breaking the rules may face disqualification and financial penalties.

Everyone staying in the Olympic village will get their temperature checked every time they enter the village. All athletes and others associated with the games are subjected to daily saliva tests.

The International Olympics Committee offered to help with vaccines, but they are not mandatory. Restrictions and protocols don’t take into account the vaccination status.

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More than 22,000 athletes, journalists and game officials have entered Japan since 1 July. So far, 61 people have tested positive, 28 from overseas.

Coco Gauff, 17, an American tennis superstar, and a potential medal winner had to withdraw earlier following a positive test.

Last week, eight athletes have tested positive, three of them members of the South African soccer team. Two dozen South Africans, including the entire soccer team and the supporting staff are under individual quarantine.

The organizers are confident their test-quarantine method is effective. They promise “Covid-safe”, not “covid-free” games.

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What happens to the athletes who test positive?

They are not allowed to compete. They must begin isolation immediately in a secluded hotel where organizers provide them three meals daily. Based on the severity of their symptoms, Japanese health authorities will decide how long they should stay in isolation.

The good news is that no athlete or team testing positive will be designated as “disqualified”. Instead, in the record books, they will receive a “DNS (Did Not Start)”, a designation without any stigma.  

In this Olympics, one will not win until one actually holds the medal in hand. Similarly, one is not out even when one is out. Because, wherever possible, an athlete or team who can’t compete due to positive tests or isolation will be replaced by the next most eligible athlete or team. Meaning if you lost in the swimming heats, but before the next round swimmers who outpaced you tested positive, you will be reinstated.

If in a boxing final, one of the players tests positive, he will be given the silver medal, and the opponent will get the gold. I couldn’t find what happens if both of them test positive at the same time.

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Talking of the timing of the results, currently the Chess World Cup is being held in Sochi, Russia.

The matches begin at 3 pm local time. Last week, Susanto Megaranto, an Indonesian grandmaster started his game against the world no.2 Fabiano Caruana sharp at 3 pm. Chess requires a great level of concentration. Forty-five minutes into the game, the arbiter, looking frightened and confused, stopped the game. He told Megaranto that the result of his test had reached the organizers at 3.30 pm, and it is positive. “Sorry but you are out of the tournament.” Megaranto, in great health, left. His opponent Caruana, who had touched Megaranto’s pawn when capturing it, was sent into quarantine.

Imagine someone like Usain Bolt waiting for the sound of the gun before the 100 m sprint. Instead, someone walks up to him and says his positive test result has arrived.

Japanese are known for their punctuality and precision. I am certain they won’t let such a situation happen.

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Ravi