Saturday, July 10, 2021

Corona Daily 036: Will Tobacco Save Us?


In April 2020, just at the start of the pandemic, an announcement caught my eye. It was from my former employer British American Tobacco, the maker of brands like Lucky Strike, Dunhill, and Benson & Hedges. BAT through its subsidiary had jumped into the vaccine developing race. The vaccine would be produced using a tobacco plant. Most people found it counter-intuitive that tobacco should be used to save lives.

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Conventional vaccines are expensive to make, their technology is complex. They need trained human resources, strict quality control. In non-pandemic times, it is difficult to find investors for vaccines. As we know; cold chain, maintaining a constant temperature from the factory to the human arm, is essential. Vaccines like Pfizer and Moderna require specialized freezers making them unsuitable for the developing world.

What is the solution? Use plants to make vaccines.

The theory was developed some thirty years ago. For proof-of-concept, scientists have used potatoes, rice, spinach, lettuce, corn and other plants to make vaccines for dengue, polio, malaria and plague. In 2006, a vaccine was approved for a disease infecting poultry. But no vaccine is yet successfully developed for humans.

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Conventional vaccines need lab-controlled live cells (from monkey kidneys, insects, hamster ovaries etc.). These cells are infected with a virus or a viral genetic code that tricks the cells to make copies. The cell lines are incubated in large, metal bioreactors for weeks. Later, they undergo a lengthy and complex purification process before the vaccine soup is packaged into vials.

These bioreactors are expensive and need specially trained staff to handle them. The risk of contamination is high, so bio-reactors require a separate building and tightly controlled sterile conditions.

Plants eliminate the need for bioreactors, because they themselves are bioreactors. Plants can be grown in greenhouses to keep them safe from pests, but they don’t require sterile conditions. Plants were known to be a rich source of pharmalogically important compounds. But only recently, thanks to biotechnology, plants can be modified in a targeted way. This is called “pharming”. The modified plants are the lab mice of the plant science world.

If this technology succeeds, vaccines can be mass produced in any part of the world, fairly cheaply.

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Two biotech companies, one in Canada and the other a BAT subsidiary in the USA, are using the tobacco plant, Nicotiana benthamiana as bio-factories.

To make the vaccine, tobacco seeds are first planted in a greenhouse. When the plants are 25 days old, they are dipped into a solution containing agro-bacteria. These are micro-organisms to infect plants. Under the current project, they are modified to contain instructions for making a protein from the coronavirus. The plants follow these instructions.

Seven days later, the plant is harvested. It goes through an extraction and purification process, and at the end of the cycle, produces 99.9% pure protein.

Another set of plants produces a tiny particle for packaging the viral protein. The two components are chemically attached to each other. The resulting compound can be injected into a human as a vaccine. When presented to the body, it looks and generates a response like a virus, though it has no genetic material inside.

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Why tobacco? Tobacco has all the properties to become an ideal pharming platform. It grows quickly, is leafy, and is a widely known plant internationally. In laboratories, it has managed to produce antibodies against HIV and Ebola.

With the cigarette markets shrinking in the developed world, tobacco farmers are worried. They want to maintain their profits, and de-stigmatise the crop if possible.

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British American Tobacco’s covid-19 vaccine is undergoing stage III trials. The company expects to offer the vaccine for approval later this year. There are more than a billion smokers in the world. If they learn the vaccine is made from a tobacco plant, they may happily come forward to take a shot.

Ravi 

Friday, July 9, 2021

Corona Daily 037: A Glass of Useful Orange Juice


In the UK, many school children are testing positive and missing schools.

UK has made testing easy and less expensive. The lateral-flow tests, rapid antigen tests, were known earlier for their common use in pregnancy testing. In that test, they detect presence or absence of a hormone in a woman’s urine. The simple device can also analyse other body fluids like blood or saliva.

To detect covid-19, one can take the sample of mucus from the nose or throat using a swab. This can be done at home. The sample is then mixed with the liquid solution given as part of the test. The diluted sample is placed at the end of a porous strip in a cartridge. The strip has a line of antibodies. As soon as those antibodies recognize the presence of the covid-19 virus, they cling to it. Just like a positive pregnancy test, a coloured band appears on the strip to indicate a covid-19 infection.

The tests are speedy and simple. Results are ready within fifteen minutes. The more common PCR tests look for the virus’s genetic sequence, these tests don’t. For a soccer match or a stadium concert, such tests can be done at the entrance. They are good at catching highly infectious individuals.

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Every school in the world has children who dislike going to school. Particularly, after staying at home for more than a year, it is a shock for some to restart hectic school life.

Some British children, perhaps with a scientific bend of mind tried different experiments. These were inspired by TikTok videos. They used fresh orange juice, coca-cola and other fizzy drinks and found they were getting a “positive red”. Delighted, they produced the results of tests done at home. In some schools, the bubble policy sent the entire class home.

Children, not aware of the government regulations, realized their quarantine and joy were short-lived. UK government requires that anybody producing a positive result in a rapid test must undergo a more robust PCR test in a lab for confirmatory result.

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Mark Lorch is a chemistry professor at the University of Hull. He read about this epidemic of fake positive tests. He had also seen an Austrian politician performing a Coca-cola positive test in the Austrian parliament to claim that those rapid antigen tests were worthless.

Professor Lorch decided to find out for himself. First, he tested with bottles of cola and orange juice. Just like the school children, he was able to get the red lines.

Antibodies are incredibly discerning. The sample collected by the swabs includes all sorts of things. Antibodies, focused on the virus, ignore them all. So why were they reacting to the ingredients of a soft drink, wondered the professor.

The most likely explanation was that something in the drinks was affecting the function of the antibodies. Fruit juices and colas were both strongly acidic. In these harsh conditions, antibodies were unable to function.

In fact, the liquid solution that comes as part of the kit serves to maintain the functioning of antibodies. What the school children and the Austrian politician had done was to not use the liquid solution at all.

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Professor Lorch knew antibodies are capable of regaining their functionality under the right conditions. He took a “positive” test with cola and washed it with the liquid solution. The immobilized antibodies functioned again, and gave a negative test result. It was like washing away the school children’s sins.

The professor has applauded the ingenuity of the truant schoolchildren. He has requested them to test his hypothesis by carrying out experiments. He promises to publish the results in a peer-reviewed scientific journal.

Ravi 

Thursday, July 8, 2021

Corona Daily 038: The Ideal Pandemic Sport


With most other sports shut down by the coronavirus pandemic, one sport that prospered was golf. It was the safest sport, played outdoors, with more than the required social distancing and the players still able to compete athletically.

Across the USA, in 2020, the rounds of golf were up 32%. Golf clubs said they had never seen the tee sheets fill up as far in advance. As per the records of the National Golf Federation, 3 million new golfers across America hit the course for the first time. Many people dusted off their golf clubs, unused for several years. Now they had time on hand. Grips, shafts, club heads, even push cart sales boomed. Like for bicycles, buyers needed to wait for a few weeks to get the ordered push cart.

In the UK, 2.3 million extra golfers got on course. The average age of participants went down by five years to 41. Golf is one game that can be played till the end of one’s life. The pandemic brought many young people to the golf course. Those who could afford golf found it better for mental and physical health. 25% of female golfers in the UK tried it for the first time because of the pandemic.

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Lucas Herbert, 25, is an Australian professional golfer. A two time winner of the European tour, he won the Dubai Duty Free Irish Open this week.

When the pandemic started, Lucas was in Orlando, Florida. His coach Dominic Azzopardi lives in Queensland, Australia. Australia’s strict regulations made it impossible for Lucas to go back. He was separated from his coach for the first time.

The two started using Skillest, a golf teaching app. The app filmed Lucas’s swings. For live sessions, Lucas was swinging at 08.30 in the morning, while Dominic, his coach watched the live session late at 10.30 pm. The system worked surprisingly well. The coach could see the swings on the app, draw lines on them, and do a voiceover. The time zone difference turned out to be a blessing. Dominic had enough time to analyze what Lucas was doing right and wrong. His detailed feedback would reach Lucas much before the following morning session. It was different from the instant feedback that the two were accustomed to over the years.

The Skillest app also allowed the coach to save all the videos of Lucas’s swings, go to that library and analyse when he was playing well and when poorly. Even professional players have bad days, sometimes bad seasons. The library had everything: putting, chipping, everything else.

The use of this app has tripled during the pandemic. Elite players usually seek daily coaching. The stay-at-home orders forced them to seek feedback remotely. It also opened up new avenues for coaches and players to seek anyone from the world. Some players admitted they had not thought of paying for a foreign coach, because before the pandemic, the thought of a smartphone coach was not popular.

Golf coaches are traditionally not as hands-on as the coaches in soccer or tennis. They use their eyes, and analytical brain. Last year, many of them started using the camera instead of eyes.

It is not only the elite players, but also the novices who benefit from having coaches. The online golf coaches belong to a rare profession that flourished during the pandemic.

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Golf clubs are hoping that a sizeable chunk of the golf newcomers would continue playing golf after the pandemic. For those who get hooked, golf can be as addictive as any other sport.

Ravi   

Wednesday, July 7, 2021

Corona Daily 039: Out with Bolsonaro


This is the story of how Indian vaccines may bring down the Brazilian president. I have written earlier about Jair Bolsonaro. He is Donald Trump with a military background.

Covaxin is a 100% Indian vaccine developed by Bharat Biotech. The company representatives visited the Brazilian ministry of health in November 2020. Covaxin was not yet approved in India, the phase III trials had just started. On 3 January 2021, the Indian government gave Covaxin an accelerated approval (given before trials were complete). The data submitted by Bharat biotech was patchy.

 The same week, a team from Brazil’s Precisa Medicamentos visited the Bharat Biotech facility in India. Bharat biotech signed a deal to export the vaccine to Brazil.

Pfizer has proven to be one of the more effective covid vaccines. The Pfizer management had been offering Pfizer to Bolsonaro. Reportedly, the offer was never taken up.

On 4 Feb 2021, the Brazilian government declared it would buy Covaxin for public use. Private hospitals in Brazil could buy it once it was approved by ANVISA, the Brazilian regulatory authority. A deal was signed. The Brazilian health ministry would pay $324 million to Precisa Medicamentos, Bharat Biotech’s representative in Brazil, for 20 million doses. Covaxin had not yet completed the phase III trials.

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On 20 March, Luis Claudio Miranda, a lawmaker from Bolsonaro’s party, and his brother Ricardo Miranda, a health ministry official, met Bolsonaro privately. They warned him about a series of irregularities in the Covaxin deal. They expected the president to start an investigation.

Towards the end of March 2021, ANVISA denied permission to import Covaxin. Its officials found that the factory in Hyderabad did not meet GMP (Good Manufacturing Practice) requirements. Without that an emergency authorization cannot be given.

In April, when asked about ANVISA’s report, Bharat Biotech’s managing director Krishna Ella said “it was a product of Brazilian nationalism, and a desire to keep an Indian vaccine out of the country. Each country wants to defame (sic) the other countries and their vaccine strategies. It’s a global phenomenon. We don’t have to worry about it.”

The Indian magic or the Brazilian compassion worked. On 4 June, ANVISA gave Covaxin an Emergency Use Approval. The approval had certain conditions attached. Bharat Biotech should export only 4 million doses. ANVISA would analyse the data before allowing any further imports.

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A congressional commission dealing with covid-19 became suspicious of the whole affair. They gave several reasons. (1) Brazil had ignored repeated offers from Pfizer, an established company that had offered millions of doses. The Covaxin deal was speedily signed. (2) Covaxin had not yet completed clinical trials. (3) Prices were higher than initially quoted and (4) the sale was effected through a middleman.

A stormy debate began in parliament. Luis Claudio Miranda was called as a witness. He wore a bulletproof jacket when giving his testimony. He narrated the March meeting with the president. He described the extraordinary pressure on the health ministry to buy Covaxin.

The committee found no evidence that the president had ordered any investigation.

On 25 June, a Supreme Court Judge requested and the attorney general’s office began an investigation into president Bolsonaro’s role in the vaccine corruption scandal. A group of 100 legislators presented draft impeachment articles.

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President Bolsonaro didn’t dispute government officials may have acted unlawfully. But it had nothing to do with him. “I have no way of knowing what’s happening in the ministries.” He said. “I am incorruptible.”

On 26 June, several Brazilian cities had large scale protest marches shouting “out with Bolsonaro.” One large sign said: “The people only take to the streets in the middle of a pandemic when the government is more dangerous than the virus.”

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On 29 June, the Brazilian government announced suspension of the contract. On 30 June, Bharat Biotech released a statement saying the procurement process was misrepresented in the media. The company had followed its standard procedure and had offered the standard price.

In India, people wondered how Bharat Biotech planned to export vaccines when India has an export ban due to domestic shortages.

Ravi 

Tuesday, July 6, 2021

Corona Daily 040: Cuba: Museum of Communism


I call Cuba the museum of Communism. My Russian friends, who have visited Cuba, confirm it. Unlike China, Cuba has remained faithful to the Soviet communist model. The fall of USSR in 1991 was the first big shock to Cuba. The Soviets were always willing to finance and subsidize the island situated so close to their arch-enemy. The second great shock was last year, when the pandemic began.

Currently, Cuba faces an unprecedented food crisis. Grocery shops are empty. People try to find food in the black market, online or offline. 70% of the food is imported. With the Cuban peso going down, prices are prohibitive. Farmers refuse to sell because they want to eat the food they grow.

On 24 June, the UN general assembly condemned US sanctions on Cuba. All countries except the USA and Israel condemn the sanctions. Such condemnation changes nothing for ordinary Cubans. This annual ritual has been going on since 1992.

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In 2001, sanctions exempted food. US became the largest exporter of food to Cuba. In the last twenty years, exports were the lowest in 2020. Because the Cuban government has no hard currency to pay for food. Cuba relies on more than 4 million foreign tourists to bring in respectable currencies. Tourism, 10% of Cuba’s GDP, disappeared in the pandemic. Till last March, there were ten daily flights between Miami and Havana. Now, one needs to search for a flight.

As if this was not enough, Cuba suffered a drought last year. Dollar shortage already meant fertilizer and fuel shortage. Sugar harvest, Cuba’s main export, was the worst in the last 100 years.

Food producing companies in Cuba earn in Pesos, pieces of paper that are worthless outside Cuba. But the same companies must pay for imports in hard currency. Farmers, by law, must sell their harvest to the government at uncompetitive prices.

State owned bakeries, and most of them are state owned, are replacing imported wheat flour with local corn, pumpkin or yucca. Consumers complain bread now tastes like soggy corn. Some cities have banned sale of biscuits to save on flour imports.

Fuel and trucks are both in shortage. Domestic transport of the imported food is a challenge. What took two weeks from the USA in the past now takes four months. In the process, wastage is high.

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Government is becoming desperate for American $. Since February, foreigners and some Cubans must pay the seven day mandatory quarantine stay in US $. Cubans living abroad are encouraged to pay online in dollars to buy food or gifts for their relatives and friends in Cuba. (One consultant commented that Cuba has 11 million hostages, and Cuban exiles are asked to pay the ransom.)

On 10 June, the central bank of Cuba announced Cubans were prohibited from depositing US$ into accounts from 21 June. In a communist country, US$ is the currency of the black markets as well as savings of the ordinary people. The panicked Cubans queued outside banks for days. This was the government’s attempt to suck all the dollars into the banking system.

Cuba owes some $3.5 billion to foreign lenders. For the last two years, Cuba has been unable to make payments. In June, Ricardo Cabrisas, Cuba’s deputy prime minister, was in Paris trying to renegotiate the debt. An ultimatum from the creditors was possibly the reason behind Cuba trying to collect US $ from ordinary citizens.

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The silver lining is Cuba’s health system. Cuba is the world’s smallest nation to develop vaccines, not one but many. Its ambition is to produce enough to inoculate its 11 million citizens, and then export to friendly nations like Venezuela and Iran. (Enemy’s enemy is a friend).

Since Fidel Castro’s time, Cuba has invested disproportionately in public health. The government spends $300-400 per person on health care. Unfortunately, a Cuban doctor is paid $64 a month, and told he belongs to a noble profession.

Trump, in his last weeks in office, reclassified Cuba as a State sponsor of International terrorism. This has restricted its access to simple things like syringes. Cuba requires 30 million syringes for its vaccination campaign, but has managed to procure only 10 million.

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Cuba is a tragic example of how ordinary citizens suffer in a defective political system. Ideology can never feed people.

Ravi 

Monday, July 5, 2021

Corona Daily 041: Value of Life


Now that most of the world is on the descending side of the virus curve, economists have started evaluating the pandemic actions. Were the lockdowns really worth it? Was saving lives more important than saving economies? The latest Economist opens up the debate lives versus livelihoods by citing dozens of papers published during the pandemic.

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For most people from Bill Gates to a man on the street, the question was a no-brainer. The economy can bounce back; a life gone can’t be revived. Human life is priceless, said politicians before announcing total shutdowns.

Supporters of lockdowns claimed people were so scared they would have shut themselves anyway. If at your office or factory, colleagues were reporting ill every day or falling dead; would you be keen to continue working? Before the vaccines, a lockdown was the only preventive tool available, they said.

Opponents said lockdowns destroyed livelihoods, without controlling the virus spread. Officially four million people have died, and in reality perhaps 10-20 million. Many nations suffered heavy tolls despite strict lockdowns. Children in many countries will probably miss in-person classes over three academic years.

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Let me ask a hypothetical question. If covid-19 was known to be dangerous exclusively for people aged 100 and above, would the world have taken any action? Probably not. There are about half a million centenarians alive, and they have so few years left, it is not worth shutting down anything, or even investing heavily in vaccines. Evidently we are willing to sacrifice 100+ year olds (unless we are one ourselves).

Here, I would like to discuss two concepts mentioned in the Economist article. One is VSL (Value of Statistical Life).

Economists must keep aside emotions, and ruthlessly put a value on a human life. I will offer an example where we subconsciously attach some kind of a monetary value to our own life. A family of four is planning to go on vacation. A ticket on Qantas, Lufthansa or Singapore Airlines is $1000 more expensive than say on Malaysian airlines, Ethiopian airlines or Asiana airlines. The head of the family decides to buy the cheaper tickets and save $4000. By opting for a less safe (actual or perceived) airline, the family has put a lower value on their lives.

The American regulatory agencies consider the value of an American life to be $11 million (VSL). The VSL concept helps policy makers conduct the cost-benefit analysis. For example, USA can invest $11 trillion as stimulus to save 1 million American lives. The underlying assumption is that those one million Americans will be able to recover that amount by their future contribution to the GDP.

The downside of VSL is that it doesn’t differentiate between young and old. QALY (Value of a Quality Adjusted Life Year) is a better measure.

In 2008, Stanford economists had calculated $129,000 as the QALY for someone on kidney dialysis. Meaning, each $129,000 spent would add a year to the dialysis patient’s life. Once this was known, the insurance company and the state could decide whether to offer the treatment and at what cost.

For the Covid-19 pandemic, Britain has decided the QALY to be GBP 30,000 per annum. In other words, if covid death is going to take away ten years from someone’s life, the value of that saved life is GBP 30,000x 10=  GBP 300,000 ($417,000).  

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There is no official data about the value of human life. One good measure is to see how much a nation pays if its soldier dies in a war. USA pays $500,000 to the families of soldiers dying in Iraq or Afghanistan, $100,000 to those in other combats. India pays $40,000.

It should be evident that poor countries have a lower VSL. The lockdowns (statistically) become worthwhile for rich nations, because they place a higher value on the lives of their citizens. Every life saved offers a greater economic benefit.

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It is easier for economists to do these ruthless cost-benefit analyses. A lot more difficult for those who govern. However, since the pandemic is still on, governments would do well to conduct the trade-off exercise. It can improve their decision-making.

Ravi 

Sunday, July 4, 2021

Corona Daily 042: Deforestation


An extreme heat wave is currently on in the western part of America and Canada. Canada recorded an all-time high of nearly 50C (122 F) this week. At least 500 people have suddenly died due to heat. Lytton, a Canadian village in British Columbia, caught in a natural wildfire, was almost entirely burnt down.

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Forests are our key weapon in the fight to slow the Earth’s warming. Trees absorb carbon dioxide, older trees have greater ability to absorb and lock up CO2.

2019 was the second or third warmest year in recorded human history, depending on the source of data. It was expected that during the pandemic, the process of de-forestation would slow down. What happened in reality?

In yesterday’s article, I mentioned that in 2020 the global carbon emissions came down by 7%. That was the good news.

During the pandemic time, the world lost more than 100,000 square miles of tree cover. (The area of Italy or New Zealand). Tree cover loss in Russia alone was 21,000 sq miles (the size of Switzerland). Russia was followed by Brazil (13,000), Australia (9,100), USA (7,600) and Canada (4,600). In the tropics which include Brazil, India and Africa, more than 16,000 sq miles of forests vanished, a 12% increase over 2019. This was despite severe shutdowns.

The pandemic summer months saw massive wildfires in Russia, Australia and the USA. Droughts and insect infestation also played their role. Tropics, on the other hand, had mainly man-made disasters. It is either the inability to control wildfires or the deliberate expansion of agriculture, and illegal grabbing of forest land. Brazil has the worst record in this respect.

Global pandemic shutdowns reduced carbon emissions by 2.4 billion tons (7%). The loss of trees resulted in 2.6 billion tons of emissions in the atmosphere.

The deforestation more than wiped out the pandemic carbon savings.

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The forests lost in wildfires can grow back. From the carbon viewpoint it is not the same, though. A newly planted sapling will take decades to acquire the CO2 absorption capacity of a 100-year old tree.

Forests lost in the tropics rarely come back. The destroyed forest lands are generally used for cattle ranching or growth of crops like soy. In the southern Amazon, Brazil has illegally claimed large swathes of land. Wildfires in Brazil often happen when humans light fires to clear land, and then can’t control the fire. Last year, in Brazil’s vast western wetland region known as the Pantanal, out-of-control fires consumed a mindboggling 30% of the rich forest land.

Deforestation sets up a vicious cycle. The destroyed forests raise the carbon emissions making the earth hotter still. The hotter Earth causes more wildfires ravaging more forests.

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Every year, the ever-growing world population creates millions of extra mouths to feed. More meat-eating requires even higher amount of vegetables (because some animals we eat consume multiple times more vegetables).

Climate experts suggest (a) checking the growth of the world population through consistent family planning strategies; particularly in Asia and Africa (b) learn to increase the efficiency of existing agricultural land. Produce more in the same plot. (c) Reduce food waste. This is something we can do at our homes and when we eat out. (d) Shifting human diets to include less meat and fewer dairy products. The vegetarian and vegan movements are not ideological. Their success will certainly restrict agricultural land expansion. (e) Planting massive new forests, a process known as “afforestation”. This could remove substantial amounts of CO2 from the atmosphere each year. However, doing this on a massive scale could result in a sharp increase in food prices, according to a report.

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Our destruction of nature is the root cause of pandemics. Razing forests and hunting wildlife bring people into contact with the viruses and microbes animals carry. This is well known.

Destroying trees and forests also cause irreversible climate change. The covid pandemic showed that the loss of forests increases CO2 emissions that can’t be saved by the world’s strictest lockdowns.

Ravi   

Saturday, July 3, 2021

Corona Daily 043: Build Back Better


Last year in March, Bombay, like most of the world, suddenly joined a historic natural experiment. Roads became deserted, planes stopped flying, we could see the horizon with the smog clearing up, world’s most crowded city trains became static, not only shops but factories and mills were shut, noise levels plummeted. Air felt, and was, cleaner. In a selfish way, some people secretly prayed for a continued lockdown.

Climate scientists became excited. They could now see how CO2 was changing. The arithmetic was simple. If a severe lockdown in a city brought carbon emissions down by x million tons, the city generated that many tons of carbon emissions during that period.            

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French climate scientists showed the calculations were more nuanced. Even with uniformly strict lockdowns, there were wide variations in emission reductions in various cities of the world.

They compared Paris with New York. In March 2020, Paris saw a drop of 72% as compared to normal, while New York City only 10%. Why such a huge difference?

Professor Philippe Ciais explained that Paris doesn’t have any fossil fuel power plants, or industrial sites, New York City still does. The other key difference is the way buildings are heated. In France, 70% of buildings are heated with clean nuclear based electricity. New York City heats with fuels; and much of its CO2 emissions are related to the heating of buildings. Even during severe lockdowns, these buildings continued to be heated the same way, with no reduction in emissions. The fossil fuel plants within the New York City limits were the major culprit. Cars made up a much smaller proportion of overall energy use.

Even when New York City was completely shut down, it continued to emit more than 80% of the previous level. Personal behavior in New York or many other megacities is not going to fix the carbon emission problem. The way energy is generated and transmitted is crucial. Governments will need to systematically make energy cleaner.

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2008 was the earlier major crash for the European electricity industry. That was not health related, but a financial crisis. Demand for power fell sharply. Post recession, when the demand picked up, solar and wind supplied the growth. Europe’s use of fossil fuels never returned to the pre-2008 levels.

Experts believe the same thing can happen with the coronavirus pandemic. It can trigger governments to move to cleaner energy.

C40 is a climate change network of the world’s megacities. Mark Watts, its head, feels the change will be driven by cities, rather than countries. During the pandemic, mayors of big cities have been meeting virtually twice a week to discuss ways to manage a green recovery.

Sally Capp, the mayor of Melbourne, was already committed to climate action. However, covid-19 has made her greatly speed up her environmental improvement plans. She is rolling out her bicycle lane plans in twelve months, originally planned to take ten years. Melbourne has committed to planting 150,000 trees, shrubs and grasses in the next six months.

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The worldwide shutdown was imagined to be the biggest carbon crash ever recorded. By December 2020, the global carbon emissions went down by 7%. However, they are recovering much faster than the recovery of the society and economy. Unfortunately, the pandemic pause will have no real effect in the short or long term. Scientists now estimate that by 2030, the global temperature will be 0.01 C lower as a result of Covid-19. In short, negligible.

Since the mid-1850s, carbon emissions have driven temperatures up by 1 C. If CO2 levels are not dramatically reduced, they are expected to rise by 3-4 C by the end of this century. Today’s toddlers will experience many genuinely unbearable summers.

Several findings suggest climate is as serious a crisis as covid-19. There is a sense that not individuals, but governments are the biggest actors in the climate change process.   

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The covid-19 emergency prompted most governments, albeit reluctantly, to put health and lives ahead of the economy. Governments need to do the same for the climate change crisis.

Ravi                           

Friday, July 2, 2021

Corona Daily 044: The Euro 2020 Virus


Do you know who has travelled to all eleven European cities, and was present at each football game in the Euro 2020 tournament? Coronavirus. First time in the past ten weeks, coronavirus cases are rising across Europe. Is it any surprise?

Tomorrow, on 3 July, England will play Ukraine in Rome. Yesterday, the Italian government shocked English fans holding confirmed tickets by asking them not to come to Italy. Until 9 pm yesterday, they could pass on their tickets to friends in Italy, or surrender them to claim a refund. Italy has a five-day quarantine requirement. The Italian government was confident the English fans had ignored it. Considering that England is a potential opponent in the final for Italy, this could be strategic warfare rather than a health measure.

Meanwhile, from tonight Portugal has imposed a nighttime curfew. This is to discourage the gathering of young people at night, said a cabinet minister. Portugal only recently had reopened the economy to prepare for summer tourists. It is suggestive that the curfew was thought of only after Portugal lost to Belgium on 27 June.

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Germans are furious. Yesterday, Horst Seehofer, Germany’s interior minister said England’s plans to have 60,000+ spectators for the semi-finals and final were “utterly irresponsible”.

Karl Lauterbach, a parliamentarian said, “UEFA is responsible for the deaths of many people.”

All matches in Munich were played before only 14,500 fans, everyone required by German regulations to wear masks, and give a negative test result before the match. Whereas the England-Germany match in Wembley with 42,000 fans was the largest pandemic crowd in England. Both the semifinals and the final will happen in London’s Wembley stadium. For the finals, Wembley will take more than 60,000 unmasked spectators.

We have no ability to know what happens in the parallel universe. The German criticism from ministers and health experts began after Germany lost 0-2 to England on 29 June. Germans are not expected to lose, and certainly not to England. Had Germany won, would any German minister have talked about football causing deaths?

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This week, Scottish officials have linked 2,000 cases to Euro 2020. Most of them had travelled to London for Scotland’s game on 18 June. Others had caught the virus at a fanzone in Glasgow or participated in a match watching party at pubs or someone’s home.

Scotland was qualified to play in the Euro after 25 years. One can’t really blame the Scottish fans for risking attending an event that is only slightly less frequent than a pandemic.

When Scotland-England played at an early stage of the tournament, Scotland’s midfielder Billy Gilmour tested positive. After a thorough health review, two players of their opponents were sent into self-isolation. I have wondered how this contact tracing happens. Did they replay the match on video and noted the players who came closer than six feet to Gilmour? How was it that two English players and no Scottish player were sent into isolation? The only possible explanation is that the three players belong to the same club, Chelsea.

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Russia’s St Petersburg is hosting the Spain vs Switzerland quarterfinal today. For each of the last three days, Russia has posted record virus deaths. St Petersburg itself had 107 covid deaths yesterday, a daily record for any Russian city.

Earlier, more than 300 Finnish fans returned positive after watching matches in Russia. This was a particular tragedy since the fans had to witness Finland losing twice in that city.

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Katy Smallwood, WHO’s emergency officer,  said yesterday authorities must properly weigh the public health risk. She said it was not just the crowds at the stadiums but the mixing connected with the games. She asked several questions: Are people travelling in crowded buses? Are they wearing masks, and maintaining distance? What’s happening after the games? Are they going into crowded bars and pubs? Are those not vaccinated going out to watch?

I wonder if Ms Smallwood has ever attended a football match.

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There are still eight surviving teams in Euro 2020. You can expect more criticism from countries after their team is knocked out. After the 11 July final, Europe can announce a two week lockdown, allowing infected fans to watch the match recordings during home isolation.

Ravi 

Thursday, July 1, 2021

Corona Daily 045: Extra Screen Time


With no commute, no holidays, no restaurants or bars, and no parties; the world spent excessive time glued to a screen. Now with vaccination and easing of lockdowns, what will happen to those habits? Is our screen time or music listening likely to go down dramatically? An article in the Economist tries to answer these questions, based on the lockdown and post-lockdown data.

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A full-time worker by saving on the commute roughly got 15% more time. The fortunate workers who retained their jobs saved a lot more money. Americans’ spend on recreation and holiday went down by 30%. Time and money going up together is a rare event. People in rich countries, and well-off people in other countries, switched the saved time to screens. In Britain, time spent online went up 20% to 5 hours a day. Before the pandemic, 10% British people had no internet, now only 5%.

Smartphone users installed 143 billion new apps, in the process more than doubling the growth rate of the previous year.

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TV and video viewing went up by 80 minutes every week. Video-gaming had the biggest jump. Youngsters spent 30% more time on games. While music listening grew modestly by 5%, audio books and podcasts listening rose by 25%.

Surprisingly, people read more printed books as well. Young women were the heaviest readers. Some read to kill time, but usefulness was important. Cooking and gardening books were bought in record numbers. In children’s books, parents preferred “home learning” books.

Netflix was a pandemic success story. Possibly as a result, in those countries where cinemas are open, new releases are happening at the same time on the giant and the small screen. Earlier, producers wanted a window before releasing the movie in the web.  

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Technology was a booster to screen time. As little as fifteen years ago, we had dozens of devices in our house for entertainment. Television, DVD player, CD (or audio cassette player), computer, music stereos, video gaming console. A mobile phone was for communication, rather than entertainment.

Now a smartphone or tab has replaced all those devices. We can have non-stop entertainment without ever leaving the device or our sofa. Earlier, bored people switched from one TV channel to another. Now, they can effortlessly move from a Netflix series to a game to news to music to reading a Kindle book.

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Research shows audio listening boomed. People listened to more of everything, music (5% increase), podcasts and audio books (25% up). This trend is probably supported by the marketing efforts of streaming companies. For licensed music, they have to pay hefty fees. They are commissioning podcasts themselves. In April 2021, podcasts continue to eat into the share of music. Recognising the trends, Amazon has launched Audible, its audio-book company.

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The biggest lockdown boom was “Gaming”. Last year, people installed 56.2 billion gaming apps, tripling the year-on-year growth. Gaming is essentially popular with Generation Z, the under 25s. This is one habit that is considered a “sticky habit”. In 2021, the apps downloading continues to surge. Roblox is a popular platform on which youngsters make and share their own games. In the first quarter of 2021, players spent nearly 10 billion hours on this platform, compared to 5 billion in the first Q of 2020.

Deloitte’s survey found something interesting. American generations other than generation Z named TV and films as their favorite form of home entertainment. Generation Z ranked them last, after video games, music, web browsing and social media. The survey will make TV and movie producers nervous.

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People spent an extra 40 minutes a week on social networks, and 30 minutes more consuming news, mostly through the social media platforms. Last month, Facebook said the increased levels of engagement during lockdown have started falling now.

For dating apps, such as Tinder, sign-ups fell in every wave, in line with a wave. The latest data shows people are making up for lost time. The owners of Tinder have told the shareholders to look forward to a “summer of love”.

Ravi