Corona Daily 002: Flashback: Part Five

At the beginning of March 2020, life was absolutely normal in Bombay, students going to school or preparing for exams; traffic jams, pollution, packed parks; malls, crowded trains, cinemas and theatres. Sunday, 8 March, after my long run, I was chatting with my runner friends at the local park. That day, I think, was the first time we discussed the virus.

“Nothing will happen in India.” Said a fellow-runner. “Our immunity is very strong.”

“True”, another friend said. “This happens in cold countries. Hot weather kills all viruses.”

“And we have got the triple vaccine as children. That protects us against most diseases. All this talk of a deadly virus…. mark my words, we will not have a single case in India.”

I corrected him saying India has already had cases. I had read enough to feel the danger was global. But all of us had just run 21 km. When you are in good shape and form, your sense of danger is low.

*****

The Indian government had proposed a new law that planned to find the “illegals” in India, and deport or imprison them. By offering amnesty to non-Muslims, the law had targeted Muslims. As mentioned earlier, protesting Muslim women had blocked a central street in Delhi. On 8 March, a local newspaper had published my half-page article explaining the nuances of the discriminatory law. The government machinery planned to run a six month campaign from 1 April to find the “illegal Muslims” (mainly former Bangladeshis and their progeny).

The egg-seller near my house is a bearded Muslim. I had discussed this issue with him to learn his views.

“Allah will not let it happen.” He said.

“But the campaign to find the illegal Muslims begins on 1 April”. I said.

“Allah will not let it happen.” He repeated, confidently.

A year later, when buying eggs from him, I reminded him of that conversation.

“Yes, Allah is almighty. I hope the Indian government learns its lesson now.”

*****

Things started moving rather fast after that. Tom Hanks tested positive in Australia. I am a Tom Hanks fan, and I earnestly hoped he was stronger than the virus.

On Thursday, 12 March, the stock markets crashed. They apparently act as a measure of the global sentiment. In a week’s time, I predicted the markets will further fall by 30% before starting to slowly climb again. I am left with egg on my face, rather a whole egg omelet. The world’s longest running pyramid scheme continued to prosper. Bitcoin shot to the moon. Bored young people put their stimulus money in the casino. New platforms such as Robinhood allowed people to trade stocks with zero commissions. The markets showed they had little connection with the real world.  Markets can reach their records at the height of the pandemic, and may crash once the pandemic is over. I have stopped making any market-related predictions, thank you.

*****

On 13 March, Trump, perhaps shocked by the market crash, declared a national emergency.

17 March was the day when newspapers in North America and Europe talked almost exclusively about coronavirus. It is noteworthy that the first vaccine trials by Moderna began on the same day. This was an absolute record in vaccine development needing only 66 days from the virus’s genetic sequence to the first human injection. The credit went to earlier epidemics like SARS and MERS, when scientists spent much effort in development, but the epidemics ended prematurely.

On 18 March, the tables turned. Deaths outside China overtook those inside China. China, in fact, started preparing to get back to normal. Except Wuhan, travel restrictions would soon end. In two days, Italy became the no.1 coronavirus victim. Already, some 500 Italians were dying daily.

*****

On 19 March, PM Narendra Modi addressed India. India would completely shut down for a single day, on Sunday, 22 March.

“Why is he doing this?” Said a runner friend the next day. “There is nothing here. Our immunity is so strong. And the virus doesn’t survive in our hot climate.”

“This is just a trailer.” I told him. “The film will begin soon thereafter, and I am afraid it is going to be a rather long film.”

*****

Ravi