Since last March, there is another epidemic taking place – that of academic studies and research papers. Since we live in emergency times, every researcher is keen to come up with creative ideas, test them quickly, and get a paper published. Normally, reputed science journals insist on greater scrutiny and peer reviews. Not any more. Just like drugs and vaccines, research papers are granted emergency authorizations.
Many studies, though of little practical relevance,
are highly amusing. A paper published on 17 September 2020 described the effect
of singing and talking on the spread of covid-19. Twelve volunteer singers,
including seven professional opera singers (2 basses, 1 baritone, 2 altos, and
2 sopranos) were invited. I presume the researchers as well as the opera
singers were out of work. The researchers, who were from Sweden’s Lund
university, observed the trajectory of aerosols emitted by the twelve singers
singing different songs. During the tests, singers sang into a funnel. The
aerosol particles were measured at the other end of the funnel.
At the beginning of every epidemic, scientists ask
people to wash their hands thoroughly. To time the hand washing with soap, you
are expected to sing the ‘happy birthday’ song in full.
The September study discovered that the happy birthday
song can cause wider transmission, because the lyrics are heavy on consonants,
and the hard Ps and Bs send more droplets into the air.
*****
Compared to
that entertaining study, the paper published this week is serious and clever. In
an intelligent way, it investigates what might
have happened in three million American households without entering a single
house.
The researchers gathered private health insurance data
from nearly 3 million households in the USA. The data included the birthdates
of everyone in the house. This was the first data point.
They also collected the administrative health care
data giving the covid-19 positive test records. The time frame was 1 January to
8 November 2020. This was another data point.
This large scale study was approved by authorities for
waiver of informed consent. The data was de-identified, meaning researchers
knew only code numbers and not the names of the individuals.
The two data points, birthdays and the covid-19
positive tests were studied together to see if there was any correlation
between them.
*****
The data analysis revealed that in counties with high
rate of transmission, households were 30% more likely to test covid positive
within two weeks after someone had a birthday. In households where a child’s birthday occurred, the incidence was even higher. Out of 10,000 people, almost
6 excessive positive tests were found within two weeks of an adult’s birthday, and
nearly 16 excessive positive cases after a child’s birthday.
In formal settings, such as corporate or political meetings,
people take more precautions, with masks and distance. However, when we are
with our close family or friends in an informal setting, our guard is down. It
is harder to imagine our infecting our own family members.
The world has been focused on mass gatherings, crowds
and superspreader events. This study showed that even under strict lockdown
conditions, a large number of American families was secretly celebrating
birthdays, particularly kids’ birthdays. After the child blew out the candles spreading
aerosols on the large cake, the family and friends sang the happy birthday song
with its hard Ps and Bs, completely contaminating the room.
*****
From a researcher’s viewpoint the beauty of the
birthdate is that everyone has one. In places where infections are still
raging, people will do well to read this research paper. That should hopefully
stop them from arranging a secret birthday party during a red-level lockdown.
Ravi
You would not believe how much controversy the restrictions on singing raises in the UK. People love singing and cannot bear that for instance, people are now allowed to go to football matches, but choirs cannot sing.
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