Corona Daily 192: Year of the Ox

If not for the pandemic, the world’s largest human migration would be taking place this month. Next Friday, on 12 February, begins the Chinese New Year (Year of the Ox, last year it was the Rat) known as such everywhere except China, where it is called Chunyun, the Spring Festival. During a forty-day festival period (28 January- 8 March) in a normal year 3 billion trips happen. It’s not only a family festival. People can visit relatives and friends uninvited. 

China has a large population of domestic migrants, 300 million. Mostly rural, the workers move to bigger cities to earn higher wages, leaving their families behind in the villages. Chunyun is the only time of the year when they return home. (Indians will recognize the migration phenomenon.) Chinese bureaucracy makes the migrant workers second-class citizens. They must register in the city of their job to access medical and social facilities. The registration system is strict making it difficult for people like factory workers to visit their families any other time of the year.

In 2020, the Year of the Rat had started on 25 January. Following the Wuhan outbreak, China had suddenly introduced travel restrictions before Chunyun. Some workers who had managed to reach their homes were stranded there for a few months. The Chinese State was unhappy that Beijing and Shanghai factories couldn’t run at their full capacity due to the stranded workers. Many suffered severe pay cuts.

Nearly half of the migrants were stranded in the town of their work. They have not seen their families since 2019. Some fathers haven’t seen their newly born children. They terribly fear not being able to go this year either.

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China fears Chunyun will be a superspreader event. This year is the 100th anniversary of the Communist Party of China, and the Party would have liked to arrange spectacular celebrations. Instead, China has come up with a strategy that tries to dissuade citizens, migrants and tourists alike, from travelling. The three-pronged plan is based on stick, carrot and emotional appeals.

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People visiting rural areas are subjected to a 14-day quarantine. They must produce a negative test and pay for it themselves. The health code on the app must be green. Some have to carry a ‘community acceptance certificate’ from the village leaders. Railway stations and airports have stepped up their precautions. The two-way quarantine and the tests may make the trip too expensive or impractical for many.

Normally, more than seven million Chinese tourists travel to Thailand, Japan, Vietnam, Singapore and Malaysia during Chunyun. Fortunately for China, all five countries have shut their borders this year.

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The list of incentives is long. Workers staying back will get gift baskets, shopping discounts. In Shanghai, officials will pay the phone and medical bills of those forgoing trips. Companies in Beijing will pay overtime, house maids will receive an extra $60. In Tianjin, the government will give subsidies to businesses for every worker who doesn’t leave for a holiday. Hangzhou, Zhejiang, Ningho and Quanzhou will issue “red packets”. Red packets were traditionally envelopes with money given to employees or children or surprise gifts. Now that happens digitally. WeChat is the most popular app in China on which those red packets can be transferred.

The city of Yiwu offers free admission to cultural places, free winter camps for children, and free subscription to online films.

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And there are campaigns to appeal to their sense of morality and patriotism.

“Mask or a ventilator? Choose one.” Reads an outdoor hoarding. “If you come home with the disease, you are unfilial.” Says another. “If you spread the disease to your parents, you are utterly devoid of conscience.” “Don’t leave Beijing unless necessary.”

Last year, with the sudden lockdown, the total number of trips (cars, trains, flights) was 1.5 billion. The Chinese administrators are practical and know their people well. Due to all persuasive and dissuasive measures, they forecast the total trips this year will be 1.7 billion instead of the 3 billion in a normal year.

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Ravi