This morning Donald Trump tested positive. In my article dated 18 June, I had raised the possibility of the virus playing an assassin if power-hungry candidates become reckless during the campaign. Trump is tested daily. As is well known, the cunning covid virus enters the host first, symptoms appear only later. We will need to wait until the next week to understand the gravity of the infection. Trump and Biden are high risk - jointly they have lived for more than 150 years. Trump is obese and information about his medical conditions may be locked up in the same safe where his tax returns are.
*****
What happens if Trump becomes severely ill?
Trump can invoke section
3 (amendment 25), by sending a written declaration to the Congress
appointing Mike Pence as an acting president. When Trump recovers, he can send
another letter, and take charge again. Reagan (1985) and junior Bush
(2002/2007) invoked this section before their colonoscopy operations.
Section 4
(amendment 25) allows Pence and the
cabinet to inform Congress about Trump being incapacitated, physically or
mentally. Funnily enough, if invoked because of Trump’s mental disorders, Trump
can contest. And the Congress must vote him out by a two-thirds majority. But
if Trump is on a ventilator or deeply sedated this section will be invoked, and
Pence will become the acting president.
*****
What happens if Trump dies?
There are four important dates that create different
scenarios. (I will refrain from using the word deadline). 3 November/ 14
December/6 January and 20 January.
3 November is the voting date to elect the President, the Senate
and the House of Representatives. It is the big day. But the American system is
bizarre, people vote directly, but they don’t elect. They send electors from the
state (in proportion to the state’s size) to vote for the president.
14 December: is when the electors will vote. By convention, they
must vote as directed by the people.
6 January: Congress, the newly elected and not the lame-duck Congress,
will count the electoral votes and declare the winner. At this point Trump or
Biden would become a president-elect.
20 January: With the inauguration, the president will assume
office.
*****
If Trump were to die before 3 November, the Republican Party National Committee will replace
him with another candidate. It doesn’t have to be Mike Pence. (Same with Biden,
Democrats will nominate another candidate).
There is no precedent. In 1912, James Sherman, a vice-presidential
candidate died six days before the election. His name was simply removed from
the ballot. However, his ticket lost the election, requiring no further action.
*****
If Trump wins, but dies before 14 December, it creates crisis and chaos. Laws of several states
compel the electors to vote for the winner, but voting for a dead person is not
really fashionable. The electors may agree to replace the dead man with the
Vice-president, but they may not. It will likely end up in the courts.
*****
If Trump wins, but dies between 15 December and 6 January, Congress may refuse to count the
votes given to a dead candidate. If the president-elect, House of
Representatives and senate belong to Republicans, the party may decide to
elevate Pence to the president’s position, but it may not. After all, American people
haven’t voted for Pence as a president.
*****
If Trump wins and dies any time after 6 January, 2021, before or after the inauguration, Mike Pence
automatically becomes the president. Lyndon Johnson became one when John
Kennedy was assassinated.
*****
Mike Pence/ Kamala Harris must hope and pray that
Trump/ Biden don’t succumb to Covid until 7 January 2021. After that, either
Pence or Harris has a good chance of becoming the President without anybody
voting for them as such.
Ravi
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