*****
The world population is close to 8 billion.
Immunologists feel at least two Covid-19 vaccination doses will be needed, doubling
the requirement to 16 billion. Currently, the world’s total manufacturing
capacity is 6.4 billion a year. Remember, this capacity is needed to fight diseases
like polio, flu, chickenpox, diphtheria, hepatitis, and measles. To prevent one
disease, you can’t allow an outbreak of another. In essence, globally an incremental capacity of 16 billion doses
needs to be built, a near impossible task. Based on the efforts so far, in
2021, some 2 billion doses will be produced. Who gets them first? The richest
countries, of course. They pay for the vaccine development, and lock up millions
of doses for their own people.
*****
In 2007, Indonesia, one of the hardest hit countries,
could not buy H5N1 influenza (bird flu) vaccine, because the rich countries had
signed advance purchase agreements to buy the entire stock. The virus was
raging in one country, and shots were given in another. (Indonesia tried getting
back by temporarily not sharing the virus samples).
In 2009, it happened again. Rich nations bought the
entire stock of the H1N1 influenza vaccines, initially leaving nothing for poor
countries. Fortunately, in both cases, the epidemic did not last long.
If two doses were blocked by the USA and EU/UK, almost
nothing will be left for others, including Brazil and India, currently in the
top three countries affected.
A vaccine effort is always global, not local. India is
the world’s largest vaccine manufacturer (not a developer). Ebola vaccine was
invented by Canadian researchers, licensed to a multinational American company,
and produced in Germany.
*****
COVAX (Covid-19 Vaccines Global Access) is a global initiative to ensure fair and equitable vaccine distribution across the world.
80 rich countries (called “self-financing”) including EU, Japan, Canada,
Brazil, Korea, Singapore, UK, and 92 countries (called “funded”) including (a) low
income countries like Afghanistan, Nepal, and many African countries and (b) lower-middle
income countries like India have shown willingness to join COVAX.
The rich countries will subsidize the poor countries.
A dose will likely cost $25-$40 in rich countries, middle income countries like
Turkey will pay $10-$16, and India, other parts of Asia, and Africa will pay
$3-$5. No country can receive more doses than to cover 20% of its population.
The vaccines will be offered to all countries in proportion to their
populations. Health care workers will get priority, followed by vulnerable
groups, including the elderly and those with medical conditions. Further doses
will be available based on the country need, and Covid-19 threat. A buffer
stock will take care of severe outbreaks anywhere in the world.
On the supply side, COVAX has already signed
agreements with nine main vaccine makers, two from China, two from the USA, one
each from Korea, UK, Germany, Australia, and one multi-national.
The goal of COVAX is, by the end of 2021, to deliver 2
billion doses of safe, effective vaccines equitably across the world. The
deadline for confirming commitment is 18 September, and upfront payment from
rich countries (without which the project is not possible) is due by 9 October.
*****
The White house spokesman Jude Deere issued the
following statement yesterday: “The
United States will continue to engage our international partners to ensure we
defeat the virus, but we will not be constrained by multilateral organizations influenced
by the corrupt World Health Organization and China.”
Ravi
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