Without context, some numbers appear to be very big.
As of 29 March
2020, nearly 32,000 people have died from Corona, making the monthly average
around 16,000.
True this virus is a wanton globe traveler, capable of
infecting an American beggar as well as a British prince. The deaths it causes
are unnecessary and traumatic. Its prowess scares because none of us wants
ourselves or our families to fall victims. Also the big unknown is the scale of
the eventual collateral economic destruction and deaths. Having said that, the
panic that the daily updates of figures creates is unwarranted. In this year of
postponed Olympics, some people watch the Worldometer link as if it were the
medals tally table.
*****
The current world population is 7.8 billion, including
5.8 billion above 15 years.
In 2019, more than 5 MILLION PEOPLE died EVERY MONTH.
That figure included:
* 1.7 million dying from cardiovascular diseases
(heart attacks, strokes),
* 900,000 from cancer
* 600,000 from respiratory diseases and infections
(flu, pneumonia)
* 117,000 from road accidents.
Remember these are monthly figures. (The worldwide
lockdown in fact has saved hundreds of thousands from dying on the road. No
plane crashes either).
As per the deadliest estimates, Corona virus is
capable of killing a 100 million people. (50% adult population infected
worldwide, with 3.4% deaths).
With the current mortality rate of 16,000 a month, the
global lockdown is a major victory so far. Even if the monthly rate climbs to
100,000 deaths, as it may, it will take the virus 84 years to kill a 100
million people. Viruses don’t last that long.
Lockdown, social distancing, slowing the monthly
deaths, and flattening the curve as they call it, will allow the world to
produce enough ventilators and a competent vaccine. In that sense, the current
numbers are encouraging rather than the other way round.
Ravi
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