The Offloaded Girl

                                 

Some short stories are local, some international. This story, true to the last detail, is an international story about a local girl. Gauri Godse belonged to my community and locality. Her mother and my mother were neighbours in Lokmanya Nagar, a well known housing society in Bombay.  

In her early twenties, Gauri left for the USA. This is not unusual. Most well-educated Indians choose that country for education, then employment and finally permanent residence. Her second serious job in the US took her to Austin, Texas. She was employed as a business analyst with Freescale Semiconductor. You may not have heard this name, but USA is full of giant multinationals that are not Apple or Microsoft. Freescale was one of the pioneer semiconductor companies. It employed more than 17,000 people worldwide. It operated in nearly twenty countries. But this story is about Gauri Godse and not her employer.

After Gauri worked for six months, the company sent her on a business trip to Kuala Lumpur. As a business analyst she was responsible for the global supply chain planning. She would attend a seminar for a week along with colleagues from different countries. After Kuala Lumpur, the delegation would fly to Tianjin in China, Freescale’s major chip making location.

Gauri’s colleagues were top class engineers. Though they were experts in chipmaking during day time, in the evening they were life-loving young men. When you are abroad on a business trip, your time entirely becomes company time. People working with you become your family. You eat three meals with them, drink with them, occasionally dance with them. Gauri, the only girl in the delegation, had bonded well with her colleagues. Days had flown quickly. On Friday night they all needed to be at the airport to fly back.

The multinational delegation was noisy when their bus reached Kuala Lumpur airport in the evening. Gauri had just about managed to pack her suitcase on time. She was still chatting with her colleagues and laughing loudly when her turn came at the airline counter. She pushed her Indian passport towards the girl, lifted the suitcase on wheels and though the company was paying for everything looked at its weight as a matter of habit. She hadn’t bought any gifts in Kuala Lumpur. Now the girl should wrap a tag around the suitcase’s handle, issue a boarding pass, show the direction in which Gauri should move; airlines the world over have become so predictable.

“Where is your Chinese visa?” The girl at the counter was flicking through the passport pages.

“Chinese visa?” Gauri said. “I live and work in the USA. I’ll be in China only for the next two days. Then I fly back to the US.”

“Your passport is Indian. You must have a visa to China.” The unsmiling girl at the counter said.

By now, Gauri’s colleagues had gathered around her. Someone mentioned a 72- hour rule.

“Yes, the 72-hour transit rule applies to certain nationalities.” The girl read from the computer. “Citizens from 51 countries are allowed to stay in China for 72 hours. But India is not included in that list.”

A senior executive from the delegation now came forward.

“Look. We are all together. Twenty-one of us. All of us work for the same company. I can vouch for this girl. We can give you a written undertaking it is our responsibility. You can see the company has booked a group ticket for all of us. If Americans can stay for 72 hours in China, she should be allowed. She is a resident in the USA.”

The airline girl handed Gauri’s passport back to her. She motioned her to remove the suitcase from the belt. Gauri’s Malaysian colleague intervened. He began talking to the airline girl in a local language. Though Gauri didn’t understand what he was saying, she could feel his anger. Everyone; Americans, Europeans, Chinese, Japanese, even Arabs had gone through smoothly. Only Gauri was stuck.

People in the queue were now complaining. They were keen to get on the flight. Suddenly, Gauri saw her suitcase at her feet. She was so tense she couldn’t properly absorb what her colleagues were saying to her. They were genuinely sorry to miss her. All of them had a wonderful time in Kuala Lumpur. A pity she couldn’t be at the Tianjin factory. But they surely would meet her again, in Texas perhaps. Suddenly all her twenty colleagues were gone.

Gauri dragged her suitcase. Between her fingers she held the blue Indian passport. At moments like this, even the most patriotic Indians wish they had some other passport, a normal passport that allows a smooth passage. The flight, not her flight anymore, was leaving on early Saturday morning. Which meant it was impossible to her to get a Chinese visa until next week. She wiped her tears, and decided to take the first available connection to Bombay. She would use the opportunity to meet her family, spend a couple of days with them. Then fly directly to the US.

*****

Gauri was fast asleep in her Bombay flat. Her fatigue, frustration and jet lag had combined to make her forget the world. Her parents’ first reaction was worry rather than happiness when they saw their daughter at the doorstep. She was not due in India until December, what happened? Gauri quickly explained she had missed her flight, and banged the Indian passport on the table. She ate very little before hitting the bed. She should have been in Beijing, her first time in China. Instead she found herself in the Bombay apartment. Once she slept, she would feel much better.

*****

It was Saturday, 8 March 2014. Gauri’s family hadn’t put the TV on earlier so that Gauri could sleep in peace. When Gauri woke up listening to her mother’s excited voice, it was late evening in Mumbai.

The TV channel was giving a Breaking News. A Malaysian flight MH 370 flying from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing this morning had disappeared. All its 227 passengers and 12 crew were missing.

Gauri’s suitcase stood in the corner, its lock intact. On top of the table next to it was her blue Indian passport.

Ravi 

The Dred Scott Case

Dred Scott was born a slave.  

At the end of the 18^th century, he was born in Southampton, Virginia, just 180 miles south of Washington D.C. He was an African, black, in his time openly called a Negro.

White Europeans had captured, enslaved and imported on ships millions of Africans to Europe and America. In the first quarter of the nineteenth century more than 100,000 slaves were brought to America alone. The conditions for transporting slaves on ships were abysmal. Many died before reaching the shores. The survivors spent the rest of their lives as slaves. Their children were slaves at birth, and without ever leaving America, could be slaves life-long.  

Slavery was accepted as part of life, particularly by the slave owners. Thomas Jefferson, President of the USA (1801-1809) authored the Declaration of Independence. He was inspired by the enlightenment ideals, the sanctity of an individual. Locke and Montesquieu were his favorite philosophers. The same man was a slavemaster who owned 600 Negro slaves. After Jefferson lost his wife, he began a relationship with one of the slaves and fathered six children from her. Of course, the six children lived as slaves. When Jefferson incurred heavy debts due to a lavish lifestyle, he offered his slaves as collateral to the creditors.

Dred Scott was the property of one Peter Blow. Scott was made to work on a farm, later at a boarding house. When he was thirty, Blow sold him to Dr Emerson, a surgeon. The new slavemaster was more distasteful than the earlier one. Dred Scott tried to run away, but was captured and enslaved again.

Dr Emerson worked with the US army. He moved places, and took his slaves along with him. When they moved to Wisconsin (today’s Minnesota), Scott married Harriet Robinson, another slave. Slave marriages had no legal sanction. Harriet’s owner transferred ownership to Dr Emerson, following which she, along with her husband, became Dr Emerson’s property.

Slaves could be sold, auctioned and rented as well. At times, Dr Emerson rented the couple to his friends or colleagues while he moved to another place. Renting slaves was a profitable business. When Dr Emerson married Eliza Sanford, he brought the Scotts back. Scotts had their first child on a boat, and named her Eliza in honour of their new mistress.

After Emerson’s death, his wife rented out Scotts for three years. In 1846, Dred Scott offered her 300 Dollars, his lifelong savings, a huge sum in those days, urging her to free him and his family. Eliza Sanford rejected the request.

The Scotts then launched a case to fight for their freedom. In the nineteenth century, slavery was not legal everywhere in America. There were 19 Free states and 13 Slave states. Living in a free state for a sufficiently long time entitled a slave to be a free person. The rule was ‘once free, always free’. Freedom was irrevocable.

Dred Scott’s owners had taken his family to the Missouri territory, which was “free”. They had lived and worked there for a few years. When the owners brought them back to a slave state, the Scott family sued them. By virtue of spending years in a free state, Scott should have been a free man, his family a free family. It was a clear cut case. Based on the facts, any court could have decided the issue quickly in Scott’s favour.

It took four years for the trial to begin. During that time, the Scott family was placed in the custody of a county Sheriff. The Sheriff continued to lease out their services as slaves. The initial case was launched by Dred Scott in 1846. The US Supreme Court gave the final verdict eleven years later, on 6 March 1857.

The Supreme Court said Dred Scott, a black man, was not, and could not be a citizen of the USA. Accordingly he had no right to launch a case. The Supreme Court could discuss, consider and evaluate cases only of American citizens. The majority verdict went against the Scott family.

This is what the USA Supreme Court said: “the question is simply this: Can a negro, whose ancestors were imported into this country, and sold as slaves, become a member of the political community formed and brought into existence by the constitution of the United States? And as such become entitled to all of the rights, and privileges and immunities guaranteed by that instrument to the citizen? (Dred Scott, 60 U.S. 403)

We think… that black people are not included and were not intended to be included under the word “citizens” in the constitution. … they were considered as a subordinate and inferior class of beings who had been subjugated by the dominant race, and whether emancipated or not, yet remained subject to their authority, and had no rights or privileges but such as those who held the power and the government might choose to grant them. (Dred Scott, 60 U.S. 404-05)

Now… the right of property in a slave is distinctly and expressly affirmed in the Constitution…. Upon these considerations, it is the opinion of the court that the act of congress which prohibited a citizen from holding and owning property of this kind… is not warranted by the Constitution, and is therefore void. (Dred Scott, 60 U.S. 451-52)

In its judgment, the Supreme Court talked about the Fifth Amendment. Dred Scott and his family was their owner’s property. It was the duty of the judges to preserve the rights of the property owner.

*****

This month, the Dred Scott case was mentioned by a UK lawyer arguing against Boris Johnson’s government. Johnson, UK’s prime minister at the time of writing this article, suspended the British parliament for five weeks. This was to enable the government bulldoze its way towards Brexit, a never-ending national crisis. Technically, the UK government was within its powers. The High Court in London had chickened out and said the case was not justiciable, meaning this was a matter for the politicians and not the courts.

 Across the world, several judges think interpreting the law as their basic function. They give excessive weight to the letter, not the spirit. This is cowardice. Dred Scott fought in the US Supreme court to gain freedom, not to learn he was disqualified to launch a case. (In 2017, India’s Supreme Court denied a woman her abortion right. The foetus was diagnosed with the Down syndrome. The judges relied on the existing letter of law. Five years before that, an Indian doctor died in Ireland due to the anti-abortion laws. You can read those two cases here.)  

People go to the courts to demand justice, not interpretation of words. Judges are not dictionaries or translators. They can simply be human, and offer judgments based on what is right and what is wrong.

*****

Fortunately for the UK, and for the civil world, the UK supreme court headed by the strong lady Hale, delivered a unanimous verdict against the UK government. In R(Miller) vs the Prime Minister, suspending parliament was termed unlawful. The court made the suspension void.

This week’s UK Supreme Court verdict was a victory for the spirit of justice.

Ravi

Tobacco. Alcohol. Drugs. Video games. Smart phones.

70% check their phones in the morning within an hour of getting up.

56% check their phones before going to bed.

48% check their phones over the weekend.

51% constantly check their phones during vacations.

44% said they would feel very anxious and irritable if they didn’t interact with their phones within a week.

(Note: This data is from a 2012 book Sleeping with your smart phone: how to break the 24/7 habit and change the way you work by Perlow Leslie, A. By 2019, all percentages would be closer to 100%, one assumes).

World Health Organisation (WHO) has a directory of diseases called ICD – International Classification of diseases. It is used by medical practitioners around the world to diagnose conditions. In June 2019, ‘Gaming Disorder’ (the Video Game addiction) was officially added as a disease. Smart phone use is not yet part of that directory, but will be; once sufficient evidence is gathered.

I am a teenager’s parent. In this article, I will restrict myself to the smart phone addiction among minors.

Indian adolescents have one of the higher addiction rates. This is what one research paper says: Indian teens love Smart Phones. Nokia research says an average person checks the phone every 6.30 minutes. In the 20-45 age group at least 10% face smart phone-related injuries. Users complain of their backs stiffening up, developing a stoop. Their necks ache. The tendons in their thumbs hurt when they text. Tendon injuries, carpal tunnel syndrome, radiation related problems, inattention blindness and computer vision syndrome are common ailments. By discouraging kids from physical activities, smart phones can cause obesity.

Nomophobia is defined as “the fear of being without your phone”. This problem is quite common in India.

*****

In terms of their addictive power, WhatsApp, Instagram and other apps are comparable to tobacco, alcohol or drugs. Children are hooked, their ears glistening blue, their fingers working exceptionally rapidly on the keys. In my school days, when friends left the house, they went home and that was that. Now the child’s friends are in her bedroom twenty- four hours, and indeed some children communicate round the clock.  If you take the child out for lunch, the first thing he wants to know is whether the restaurant has WiFi.

Though the addiction is seen, helplessly acknowledged by parents and schools; statutory bodies have failed to act. Until 18 years of age, one can’t smoke, drink, marry, drive, vote or be responsible for a crime, but one is absolutely free to get addicted to a smart phone. As adults, if the 18+ wish to ruin their education and life, it is up to them. But minors surely need some protection. I hope the world will understand one day that smart devices can make kids dumb. Governments will need to regulate minors’ use of smart gadgets.

I am writing this article on my 15-inch laptop, and perhaps you are reading it on a big screen as well. Many children and adults now read exclusively on a phone-screen. Well written letters are becoming extinct. Articulation is restricted to a text made of dozens of characters and a set of Smileys. After writing LOL, BTW, CUL8R, hahaha, !!!!!!!!!!! for years, when the child appears for an exam paper, he is shocked to see no auto-correct 0r spell-check. Emotions are expressed not with words but emoticons.

Nobody has time for thinking, for reflection, for enjoying the small joys of life. The new posture is that of a bent human focused on the phone, oblivious to other people, trees, nature or the sky. If this continues in the same vein, one hundred years from now, humans will be born with their heads lowered.

What can be done to combat this?

I worked for several years in the tobacco industry. With research backed knowledge, I can say smoking is reduced in developed countries as a result of restrictions on where to smoke – not much else. Health warnings, anti-tobacco advertising, counseling are of little help. But the ban – in offices, in trains, at restaurants, on flights, in public places, has been the biggest contributor. In some nations, home is now the only place where one can legitimately smoke.

Similar restrictions are needed on smart phones for minors. Many schools ban use of phones on the school premises. If teenage children can be made to hand over their devices to parents (hopefully their parents are less addicted) by say 10 pm, it would bring much happiness to parents, and much sleep to children. Sleep deprivation is a recognized torture technique. Modern children have opted to inflict it upon themselves. However, taking away phones from teenagers is not an easy thing to enforce.

A better idea is to force the phone manufacturers to design phones or apps specially for the minors. Parents should be able to monitor a minor’s phone activity. After all, parents pay for the phones, not the kids.

My daughter has a debit card. Last year, I gave it to her as a birthday gift when she turned 15. The Indian banking regulations allow a maximum of Rs 5000 (USD 70) spend per month on that card. Whenever my daughter withdraws cash or buys something, I get a text message on my phone detailing the transaction. If she wishes to buy something online, the one-time-password (OTP) comes to my phone. She can use the card online but not without taking me into confidence. This arrangement has worked fine. My daughter is happy she doesn’t need to ask for pocket money. I am happy she uses the card responsibly. If she wishes to avoid the parental control, she simply won’t have the debit card. Banking regulations have introduced these measures to protect minors.

The same thing can be done for smart phones - by Apple, Samsung and others. Parents should be able to switch off their minor child’s phone. Sensible parents would do this between 9-10 pm or at that time when the child should be in bed. Sensible children would accept it is part of the regulations. Parents should get the data automatically about the child’s screen time, sites accessed. Privacy is an important element in everyone’s life, including a child’s. However, when privacy can result into sleep deprivation, contact with strangers, numb fingers, failing vision, stiff back and obesity; it’s time to do something about it. 

Certain apps offering those functions exist. But due to lack of government regulations, they can’t be enforced.

Children below 18 are entitled to privacy. But a smart phone is like a pack of cigarettes or a bottle of whiskey. Enjoyable but poses dangers for health. The phone and app makers can take the first step of self-regulation by introducing phones designed for minors.

Ravi

Intelligence and expertise

This week, I read Looking for miss Sargam by Shubha Mudgal. She is a well known singer. This is her first book of fiction, a collection of short stories mainly of misadventures from the world of music. When reading the book, what struck me was the quality of the author’s intelligence. I could sense if not pinpoint intelligence evident through minute observations, non-biting satire, and her turn of phrase.

This article is not a review of that book, but a discussion on what intelligence is. It is not an easy term to define; even intelligent people have struggled to offer precise definitions. Intelligence can be felt. I infrequently come across books where I feel the author’s intelligence. It doesn’t necessarily mean the book is great. But it is delightful to see intelligence spread across the pages. I develop a closer bond to the author. I become confident I will see flashes of intelligence in the remaining pages. It is rare for an author to spray intelligence over the first few pages, to lose it later.

Here I would like to split intelligence into two categories. Profession-specific and overall. I will call the profession-related intelligence as “expertise”. Expertise is often confused with intelligence. It is unfortunate I will have to illustrate my point with names. Names of public figures. When something is hard to define, it is better understood through description and examples.

I will begin with Sunil Gavaskar and Sachin Tendulkar, two cricketing icons from India. One after the other, they dominated Indian cricket for nearly four decades. Equally exciting for spectators and statisticians, stadium stands are named after them in their lifetime.

Sunil Gavaskar has continued his association with cricket. He is perhaps the best TV commentator in terms of the insights he offers. It is not easy to offer fresh insights for nearly twenty years in a particular sport.

Most Indian cricketers, certainly those from Bombay, rush to him to check the contracts they wish to sign with sponsors. Gavaskar is not a trained lawyer, but he is trusted more to scrutinize a contract and give suggestions for improving it.

Since he was a young cricketer, stories were heard as to how he lingered at the airport after arriving from a tour abroad. If the plane landed at 11 pm, he would wait at the airport for more than an hour before passing immigration. This allowed him to be technically abroad for another day, taking him closer to the non-resident status that legitimately saved taxes on his earnings. His company reportedly delegates newspaper column writing to other cricketers. A lion’s share of those earnings goes to Gavaskar. For this year’s world cup in the UK, his company had offered expensive packages that included tickets to the semi-finals and final, along with guest houses. Well-to-do Indian fans bought those hassle-free packages. Sunil Gavaskar is everywhere, delivering lectures, inventing new projects, writing books, tweeting sharp observations, chairing technical committees, thinking about cricket all the time.

His stature was endorsed by the Supreme Court of India. When BCCI, India’s cricket body was in a mess, the Supreme Court sua sponte appointed Gavaskar as BCCI’s president, an incredibly unusual step by the court.

Though his activities revolve around cricket, Sunil Gavaskar’s intelligence is an all-pervasive intelligence. He is intelligent on the cricket field, and off it. If he was not a cricketer, he would have still succeeded in life, in some other field. The quality of his intelligence can be felt when you hear him, meet him or read what he writes.

Sachin Tendulkar, India’s biggest batting god, is a cricketing genius as well. He owns more records, fame, wealth and recognition than Gavaksar. But his intelligence is a profession-related intelligence. He is super-intelligent, a genius, when holding a bat in his hand. Out of a cricket field, retired from the game, he is simply an ordinary ex-cricketer as far as intelligence goes. This is not to demean him. He is a decent bloke, respectable, smart, smiling, pleasant, modest, and immensely likeable. But the quality of intelligence seen in Sunny Gavaskar is absent in Tendulkar.

Amitabh Bachchan is another example of an intelligent person. This is not only about expertise. In fact, there are several actors superior to Bachchan as far as acting goes. But Bachchan, like Gavaskar, shines with an all-round intelligence. Maybe it can be called a glint in the brain.

I had the fortune of briefly working with Amitabh Bachchan on an Indo-Russian film called Ajooba. I was working as the Russian interpreter. One morning, I found myself alone with him on the sets. He was super-punctual and so was I. A few skulls were lying on the set. They would be used in a scene that day. Having nothing to do, we were strolling on the set. Amitabh was picking the skulls up, observing them. He picked up the smallest one and said with a straight face, “this must be Dimple Kapadia’s.” This was not just humour. I felt only an intelligent man could conceive such a comment. (Dimple Kapadia, the film’s leading lady had absolutely stunning looks, and brains that came nowhere close).  

Rajesh Khanna or Aamir Khan became superstars. But their intelligence is clearly exclusively related to their professions.

When any person practices a profession for sufficiently long time, he develops insights; he becomes a master of that subject. This is expertise, not to be mistaken for intelligence. In India, getting into the top medical or engineering universities is diabolically cutthroat. Less than the top one percent qualifies for the super-competitive exams. Despite that, I have met several doctors and IIT (Indian Institute of technology) graduates who are positively unintelligent. They can skillfully conduct bypass surgeries or develop software for running of the city metro, but outside their expertise area, they can have a fairly low IQ.

Many Olympic gold winners or Grand slam winners in tennis may have little or no intelligence. Even brain sports may have nothing to do with intelligence.

I have been privileged to meet seven Chess World Champions. For a brief period, I worked with Gary Kasparov and Anatoly Karpov. Viswanathan Anand is a friend. In terms of intellect, I would rank Anand at the top, followed by Kasparov. Karpov gets the bottom place. A genius at the chess board, I found him fairly dumb otherwise. Dumb is rather a strong word for a World Chess Champion, but when you hear Karpov ramble, that’s the first word that comes to mind. Karpov’s intelligence is purely chess related.

My judgment is, of course, subjective. It is likely to offend the fans of Tendulkar, Aamir Khan or Karpov. Because people usually confuse expertise and intelligence. There is no shame in not being intelligent, just like there is no shame in not being good-looking or tall. Short or ugly people more easily accept their shortness or ugliness because they can check it in the mirror. Mirrors don’t exist for intelligence.

What can be done with this information? Or is it simply an intellectual exercise? Well, if you are a recruiter, you may want to check if a person is truly intelligent or simply a subject expert. In today’s world where technology changes rapidly, you need people who can adapt themselves well. Intelligent people can adapt more easily to change. One reason why Sunil Gavaskar and Amitabh Bachchan, both in their seventies, had such lengthy varied careers is that they have been reinventing themselves all the time.

When you wish to find a life partner, you may be better off looking for intelligence rather than expertise. Subject expertise (dermatology or chemical engineering) is fairly useless in making a marriage successful.

Companies and individuals must keep an eye for intelligent people. They are usually good company, because you can discuss everything and anything with them. One doesn’t need to be intelligent to recognize intelligence, but it helps.

Ravi

The Brexit Soap Opera: how will it end?

Let me take out all the clutter – referendums, extensions, backstop, Theresa May, elections, Boris Johnson, court cases, proroguing parliament – and reason logically to deduce how the Brexit soap opera would end.   

Remain in the European Union   

The British government is allowed to revoke the Brexit decision any time. It can be done in five minutes. EU will be happy, business world will be happy, 48% of the British voters will be happy; Pound will bounce up, the bad dream finally over. How likely is this to happen?

Unlikely.

Parliament, business circles and media, perhaps judiciary, may support revoking Brexit. But directly (referendum) or indirectly (general election), the final decision will be taken by the British voters. In 2016, more people voted to leave than to remain. In May 2019, the European Parliament elections in the UK were won by the Brexit party. This hard Eurosceptic party won more seats than Tory and Labour combined. True, this was not a domestic election. But the British voters have sent their message.

Can UK really revoke Brexit after three years filled with hate and bitterness? No. The national ego is unlikely to permit cancelling of Brexit.

Staying in the EU, though the best option, is unlikely to happen. The question then is what form does Britain’s exit take?

Sacrifice Northern Ireland

The next best choice is to allow Northern Ireland to be in EU commercially, but part of UK politically. This will be a clean break for the island of Great Britain. The border will be in the Irish Sea, making customs and checks easy. Irish border remains open, potential violence is avoided.

After Brexit, it is a mathematical impossibility for Northern Ireland to be part of the UK and EU at the same time, as far as free movement is concerned. Can the UK sacrifice Northern Ireland and accept borders in the Irish Sea?

Unlikely.

No country likes to voluntarily give up land, even for commercial purposes. The Unionist sentiment in Northern Ireland is high. They are opposed to being treated differently than the rest of the UK. In theory, at the Irish Sea checkpoint, a man from Belfast coming to Great Britain will need to show his passport. His luggage can be scrutinized by customs, manned by his fellow citizens. Goods and services in Northern Ireland will have different prices and standards than in the rest of the UK. In effect, the Irish Sea border will be an international border, with residents of Northern Ireland de facto foreigners.

Will English and Irish people be able to move freely as before (Common Travel Area)? No, they won’t. EU’s four freedoms of movement: people, goods, services, capital are a single bundled package. A country can opt for all four or none. EU can’t compromise, because Brexited UK can’t have more privileges than EU’s member states. Once Brexit happens, people will need to pass border controls just as goods.

Could UK opt for continuing with all four freedoms? The Norway model? No, because then the whole purpose of Brexit is lost. Unchecked migration of the Europeans is what Brexit wanted to attack in the first place.

Since the four freedoms are inseparable, and since UK is unwilling to sacrifice Northern Ireland, a deal with European Union is not possible no matter who the prime minister is and how many extensions are requested.

Brexit without a deal is, therefore, the only logical option.

Smugglers’ paradise  

Once a no-deal Brexit happens, EU will have no option but to erect an international border in Ireland. With the more than 200 crossing points, some of them going through houses and farms, guarding the 500 km border will be a nightmare. With different regulatory regimes and taxes on the two sides, smuggling will flourish. The island of Ireland will become a smugglers’ paradise.

Worse, the Troubles may be reborn. Violence will begin again, bombs will inevitably start exploding. Helmeted army will be installed at checkpoints.

Eventually, the people in Northern Ireland will get sick and exercise the right given to them by the Good Friday agreement. They will vote to leave the United Kingdom. This is the only way to stop violence and smuggling. They will realize it is better to be part of a 500 million strong market, than a 60 million market in chaos.

No-deal Brexit logically will lead to Northern Ireland opting out of the UK.

If they are allowed, why not we?  

Either following Northern Ireland’s exit or before that Scotland will opt to leave the UK through another referendum.

Northern Ireland and Scotland are the only two significant regions annexed by the British Empire which still belong to the British. If Northern Ireland is treated differently from the rest of the UK, Scotland would like to be on par. It is unlikely that Northern Ireland will leave UK and Scotland can tolerate being inside. Scotland’s leaving would create a new international border between Scotland and England. Goods and passports will be checked when travelling from London to Edinburgh.

Northern Ireland leaving the UK will be accompanied by Scotland leaving the UK.

At the end of this logical process, United Kingdom will be a nation made of England and Wales. It will be a small, economically shrunk, insignificant nation, but totally independent.

Summary:

Staying in the UK is the best option, unlikely to happen, because more voters want to leave than remain. 2019 Brexit party success confirms this.

Sacrificing Northern Ireland is the next best option, unlikely to happen, because no country likes to lose land. EU doesn’t compromise on four freedoms of movement. Without sacrificing Northern Ireland, a deal with EU is not possible.

Following a no-deal Brexit, Ireland will become a smugglers’ paradise and the Troubles will start all over again. Northern Ireland will get sick and leave the EU.

Pointing at Northern Ireland leaving, Scotland will leave through a referendum.

United Kingdom will become a tiny independent nation made of England and Wales.

As to whether this process will take five years or fifty years is unknown. Logic dictates this to be an inevitable direction.

Ravi

   

The Brexit Soap Opera: The origins

Britain’s geography, history and monolingualism

Britain’s geography and history are the two main reasons for Brexit, the desire of Britain to extricate itself from a 45-year old marriage to the European Union.

Great Britain, not to be confused with the UK, is an island, Europe’s biggest. (United Kingdom= Great Britain+ Northern Ireland). Two thousand years ago, it was termed ‘great’ simply to mean bigger than the ‘little Britain’ (either the Irish island or Brittany). Great refers to its relative size, not to anything else. As a result of living on an island, the English people developed an islandic mentality. They think they are intrinsically different than those on the European continent. They drive on the other side of the road, their signs show miles because Europe uses kilometers. They refuse to join Europe’s common currency. The Brits preserve a nonagenarian monarch, and pretend to seek her consent for every major political action. Though it takes only two hours to travel from Brussels to London by Eurostar, Brussels is overseas, because it is overseas. The sea separating Great Britain from Europe is the psychological factor behind Britain thinking of Europe as a different continent, Europeans as foreigners. The islandic mentality nurtured for sufficiently long time in sufficiently large numbers made Britain’s marriage with Europe an uneasy one.

Britain’s imperial history is the second reason. The British Empire was the largest empire in human history occupying more than quarter of the earth. That past has cultivated a sense of superiority and entitlement. English people as a rule know only English; they expect everyone else to speak in English. In my experience- I worked in a British multinational for a decade- British expats rarely attempted to learn the local language. My British colleagues would discuss cricket in groups that included French, Germans or Italians. It was not deliberate, I don’t think. They simply assumed that since Cricket was a game invented in England, everyone in the world must understand it.

Monolingualism inevitably produces nationalism. When an Englishman walking on Oxford Street hears the cacophony of foreign sounds, none of them intelligible to him; when a Polish waitress talks to him in a strange accent; when Romanian barbers chatter in Romanian while cutting the Englishman’s hair; he becomes truly nervous. His island has been invaded by aliens. Languagism and accentism are often underestimated as compared to racism and genderism. They can be more toxic. For foreigners to reach top offices in Britain, they need to speak like Brits. The UK government may allow ministers belonging to other races (e.g. Priti Patel or Sajid Javid) as long as they have the right British accent. If Poles or Romanians could speak English with the BBC accent, they would become more tolerable, too. But thanks to the EU, they enter the UK at whim with their foreign accents and deficient language skills.  

The funny thing is that the British accent itself changes every couple of miles. When I lived in Derby, I was shocked to hear ‘b-oo-s’ (bus), f-oo-n  and d-oo-st. It took me a few weeks to understand the British midlanders. (No subtitles when you speak with someone on the street). Derby accent, though, is an accepted British accent, however deviant. Cockney, Yorkshire, Essex are all different accents. Even Scottish and Irish can be endured, because they are formally recognized as British. But Hungarian and French accents definitely belong to aliens.

 The monolingual islanders with an inherent feeling of superiority and entitlement had to drive the aliens with strange accents out of their land. Observers say Cameroon’s announcing the referendum was wrong. It was simply a trigger. The UK-EU marriage has always been an awkward one. Way back in 1975, the Labour party had voted for Britain to leave the European Communities. Over the next decade that party remained Eurosceptic. Its current leader, Jeremy Corbyn, depending on the day of the week, either supports Brexit or is not opposed to it. UKIP (UK Independence party) was formed in 1993. Its successor, the Brexit party, has gradually increased its vote share to make it a leading party in the 2019 European elections in the UK.  

The other island

The Great Britain Island can easily exit from the European Union. But there is a problem. Look at the map. Part of the other island lying to the west of Great Britain belongs to the UK. This island was partitioned by the British Empire in 1921. The southern Ireland was predominantly Catholic; the Northern Ireland had a large percentage of Protestants. If the two parts had remained in the UK, Brexit was easy. If both parts were out of the UK, Brexit would have happened by now. But the southern part freed itself from the British Empire, and is now the Republic of Ireland. The Northern Ireland, on the other hand, decided to be part of the UK.

This was another uneasy arrangement. Because Northern Ireland has two types of Irish people. Irish nationalists who dream of a United Ireland and Unionists, loyal to the UK. The ambitions of the Irish nationalists (remember IRA (Irish Republican Army) or Sinn Fein?) provoked violence, bomb blasts and police brutality. “The Troubles” continued from the late 1960s to 1998. Finally, with the signing of the Good Friday agreement, peace was established. The agreement recognized Northern Ireland was part of the UK, but with close links to Ireland. Every Northern Ireland resident was given a right to become the citizen of the Republic of Ireland. In future, if majority so wishes, Northern Ireland is free to leave the UK and join the Irish Republic. A Common Travel Area (CTA) allows free movement of people between and within the two islands.

This international treaty is a role model for creating peace. It successfully stopped violence for twenty years. And then the Brexit referendum happened.

The curious division

The border between the two Irelands is not natural but man-made. One hundred years ago, it happened fairly arbitrarily. It is 500 km long, with over 200 crossing points. The road N54/A3 crosses the border four times within 10 km. The drivers don’t notice changing countries because the border is currently open. When the border was closed, one railway line between Clones, Monaghan and Cavan crossed the border six times in eight miles, with custom checks at each crossing.

The border also goes through some houses, libraries, farms. Imagine a house whose residents live and eat in Ireland but sleep in the UK. This is not a fiction, but reality.

The two Irelands are so closely linked that 30,000 people cross the border daily for work on the other side. Every month 177000 Lorries, 208000 vans and 1.85 million cars cross the border. How efficiently can these people and vehicles move once a new border comes up? And how do you erect an international border inside a house or a library?

The British Empire effected three partitions based on religions. Ireland (Catholic-protestant), Israel (Arabs-Jew), India-Pakistan (Hindu-Muslim). The Irish partition in 1921 was the oldest. It has now come to bite the UK. What goes around comes around.  

If the Irish border were to remain open, Northern Ireland will become a giant zone for smuggling. It will cause the collapse of the single market. EU can’t allow that. (For fifty years, contraceptives have been smuggled from Northern Ireland to the Catholic Irish Republic).

Following the referendum in 2016, Theresa May called for a new general election. She lost more seats and needed an alliance with a small party called DUP. DUP is the Unionist party of Northern Ireland. God is a great storyteller. Cosmic irony is the device used in the Brexit story. The Unionist party with its ten members refused to be treated differently.

Islandic mentality, superiority complex and monolingualism inevitably triggered Brexit. The Irish issue created a roadblock.

Thus began the Brexit soap opera, with no end in sight.

Ravi