The Brexit Soap Opera: how will it end?

Let me take out all the clutter – referendums, extensions, backstop, Theresa May, elections, Boris Johnson, court cases, proroguing parliament – and reason logically to deduce how the Brexit soap opera would end.   

Remain in the European Union   

The British government is allowed to revoke the Brexit decision any time. It can be done in five minutes. EU will be happy, business world will be happy, 48% of the British voters will be happy; Pound will bounce up, the bad dream finally over. How likely is this to happen?

Unlikely.

Parliament, business circles and media, perhaps judiciary, may support revoking Brexit. But directly (referendum) or indirectly (general election), the final decision will be taken by the British voters. In 2016, more people voted to leave than to remain. In May 2019, the European Parliament elections in the UK were won by the Brexit party. This hard Eurosceptic party won more seats than Tory and Labour combined. True, this was not a domestic election. But the British voters have sent their message.

Can UK really revoke Brexit after three years filled with hate and bitterness? No. The national ego is unlikely to permit cancelling of Brexit.

Staying in the EU, though the best option, is unlikely to happen. The question then is what form does Britain’s exit take?

Sacrifice Northern Ireland

The next best choice is to allow Northern Ireland to be in EU commercially, but part of UK politically. This will be a clean break for the island of Great Britain. The border will be in the Irish Sea, making customs and checks easy. Irish border remains open, potential violence is avoided.

After Brexit, it is a mathematical impossibility for Northern Ireland to be part of the UK and EU at the same time, as far as free movement is concerned. Can the UK sacrifice Northern Ireland and accept borders in the Irish Sea?

Unlikely.

No country likes to voluntarily give up land, even for commercial purposes. The Unionist sentiment in Northern Ireland is high. They are opposed to being treated differently than the rest of the UK. In theory, at the Irish Sea checkpoint, a man from Belfast coming to Great Britain will need to show his passport. His luggage can be scrutinized by customs, manned by his fellow citizens. Goods and services in Northern Ireland will have different prices and standards than in the rest of the UK. In effect, the Irish Sea border will be an international border, with residents of Northern Ireland de facto foreigners.

Will English and Irish people be able to move freely as before (Common Travel Area)? No, they won’t. EU’s four freedoms of movement: people, goods, services, capital are a single bundled package. A country can opt for all four or none. EU can’t compromise, because Brexited UK can’t have more privileges than EU’s member states. Once Brexit happens, people will need to pass border controls just as goods.

Could UK opt for continuing with all four freedoms? The Norway model? No, because then the whole purpose of Brexit is lost. Unchecked migration of the Europeans is what Brexit wanted to attack in the first place.

Since the four freedoms are inseparable, and since UK is unwilling to sacrifice Northern Ireland, a deal with European Union is not possible no matter who the prime minister is and how many extensions are requested.

Brexit without a deal is, therefore, the only logical option.

Smugglers’ paradise  

Once a no-deal Brexit happens, EU will have no option but to erect an international border in Ireland. With the more than 200 crossing points, some of them going through houses and farms, guarding the 500 km border will be a nightmare. With different regulatory regimes and taxes on the two sides, smuggling will flourish. The island of Ireland will become a smugglers’ paradise.

Worse, the Troubles may be reborn. Violence will begin again, bombs will inevitably start exploding. Helmeted army will be installed at checkpoints.

Eventually, the people in Northern Ireland will get sick and exercise the right given to them by the Good Friday agreement. They will vote to leave the United Kingdom. This is the only way to stop violence and smuggling. They will realize it is better to be part of a 500 million strong market, than a 60 million market in chaos.

No-deal Brexit logically will lead to Northern Ireland opting out of the UK.

If they are allowed, why not we?  

Either following Northern Ireland’s exit or before that Scotland will opt to leave the UK through another referendum.

Northern Ireland and Scotland are the only two significant regions annexed by the British Empire which still belong to the British. If Northern Ireland is treated differently from the rest of the UK, Scotland would like to be on par. It is unlikely that Northern Ireland will leave UK and Scotland can tolerate being inside. Scotland’s leaving would create a new international border between Scotland and England. Goods and passports will be checked when travelling from London to Edinburgh.

Northern Ireland leaving the UK will be accompanied by Scotland leaving the UK.

At the end of this logical process, United Kingdom will be a nation made of England and Wales. It will be a small, economically shrunk, insignificant nation, but totally independent.

Summary:

Staying in the UK is the best option, unlikely to happen, because more voters want to leave than remain. 2019 Brexit party success confirms this.

Sacrificing Northern Ireland is the next best option, unlikely to happen, because no country likes to lose land. EU doesn’t compromise on four freedoms of movement. Without sacrificing Northern Ireland, a deal with EU is not possible.

Following a no-deal Brexit, Ireland will become a smugglers’ paradise and the Troubles will start all over again. Northern Ireland will get sick and leave the EU.

Pointing at Northern Ireland leaving, Scotland will leave through a referendum.

United Kingdom will become a tiny independent nation made of England and Wales.

As to whether this process will take five years or fifty years is unknown. Logic dictates this to be an inevitable direction.

Ravi