Corona Daily 156: BFF

Ilse Kohn and Anne Marie Wahrenburg were born in 1929, in Germany. After their first meeting in the school courtyard, they were inseparable. They shared a bench in the classroom, went to ballet class and synagogue together. Jewish girls were banned by the German government from playing in the parks, bicycling, visiting theatres or swimming pools. While their Aryan schoolmates went about freely, the two girls spent time in each other’s houses. The Nazi regime in a strange way bonded Ilse and Anne Marie closer.

In November 1938 the infamous Kristallnacht (night of broken glass) happened. Jewish homes, hospitals, schools were attacked, looted and demolished. In total 267 synagogues were destroyed. More than one hundred Jews were killed, 30,000 arrested and sent to concentration camps. Historians consider Kristallnacht as the starting point of the holocaust that murdered six million Jews.

Anne Marie’s father was arrested and sent to a concentration camp. Both girls were told it was too dangerous to live in Germany, and escape plans were hatched. In the spring of 1939, the girls met for the last time. Ilse’s family managed to buy tickets on a ferry to Shanghai. China took in Jews without visas. Ilse and Anne’s last meeting was traumatic. They promised to keep in touch, and meet again.

Ilse’s family fled to China. Except her parents and Ilse, everyone in the extended family was killed by the Nazis. In China, life was difficult, with not enough food, no medicines. Ilse got married and became Betty Grebenschikoff. Soon after, China had a communist revolution. Eight months pregnant, Betty had to flee again, along with her husband. The family finally settled in the USA.

*****

After that fateful day when they parted in Berlin, Betty never learnt anything about her friend Anne Marie. Whenever databases appeared, she looked for her friend. As a holocaust survivor, Betty gave speeches about her experiences and life in Nazi Germany.

In 1993, at the age of 63, Betty published a memoir (Once my name was Sara). It had an entire chapter devoted to Anne Marie and their friendship.

Steven Spielberg has founded the USC Shoah foundation which collects audiovisual testimony of holocaust survivors. Its archives have more than 55,000 video testimonies. In 1996, Betty recorded her testimony for four hours. In that interview she says: “I had one particular girlfriend whose name I always mention. Her name was Annemarie Wahrenberg. I never knew what happened to her…She probably died in the war but I’m not sure.”

*****

Ita Gordon is an indexer in this foundation. Organizing and cataloguing testimonies is her job. Last November, she was invited to attend a webinar hosted by the Latin American network for the teaching of the Shoah (Hebrew for holocaust). In normal times, the speeches happened in person, and there was no question of Ita attending a speech in Chile. But the pandemic had converted all lectures to webinars allowing anyone in the world to join. A 91-year-old survivor was telling the story of how her family fled Berlin for South America after the 1938 Kristallnacht pogrom. The Spanish speaker’s name was Ana Maria Wahrenberg. She mentioned her childhood friend Ilse Kohn.

*****

Ita, a professional indexer, with a phenomenal memory, sensed she knew a similar story, but didn’t know where or when. When she tried different searches with a variety of spellings, Wahrenberg appeared in a single four-hour interview from 1996. Ita sat listening to the interview, and heard: “I had one particular girlfriend whose name I always mention. Her name was Annemarie Wahrenberg.”

*****

Betty nee Ilse, 91, lives in Florida. Anne Marie, 91, lives in Santiago. On 19 November, they spoke on Zoom after a gap of 82 years. Ignoring the gap, they straightaway began talking in German, reminiscing. They spoke for over two hours.

Betty has five children, seven grandchildren and six great-grandchildren. Anne Marie has two children, six grandchildren and ten great-grandchildren. Most of them were mute spectators on that zoom call with eyes wet. Then they raised champagne glasses on their respective screens.

Betty and Anne Marie now connect on phone and zoom regularly. Anne Marie plans to visit Miami for Rosh Hashanah (in September).

“I just want to hug her again.” Says Betty. “It would be a culmination of a lifelong journey.”

Ravi 

Corona Daily 157: The Emergent Story: Part Final

In 2017, just a year after threatening to go bankrupt if the government didn’t bail it out, Emergent spent $200 million acquiring Sanofi’s smallpox vaccine, and GlaxoSmithKline’s anthrax treatment, two products with established pipelines to the stockpile. Eyebrows were raised and questions were asked as to how a poor and nearly bankrupt company could spend $200 million.

The company’s financial disclosures show it has received since 2017 a half-billion dollars in federal research and development funding. “We know ahead of time when funding opportunities are going to come out. When we talk to the government, we know how to speak the government’s language around contracting.” Said Emergent’s VP in 2017.

*****

Dr Nicole Lurie from the Obama administration had tried to reduce the BioThrax purchases. Trump replaced her with Dr Robert Kadlec, a biodefence expert obsessed with biological and chemical weapon threats. He repeatedly said Mother Nature was not a thinking enemy capable of inflicting harm to the USA. It was the man-made threats the stockpile should focus on.

Under the guise of removing bureaucracy, Dr Kadlec concentrated all decision-making in his own hands. He dismissed warnings from scientists that a natural pandemic could also be devastating. Citing limited budgets, Kadlec cancelled an Obama-era $35 million initiative to build a machine to produce 1.5 million N95 masks every day.   

It must be mentioned here that in summer 2012, Kadlec and El-Hibri had formed a biodefence company together. El-Hibri is the founder and managing director of Emergent. Later, Kadlec worked as a biosecurity consultant for Emergent. In July 2017, when Trump nominated him, he was required to fill the questionnaire for the Senate interview. He was asked to mention any work with companies that would create a potential conflict of interest. Kadlec wrote: none. He reported all jobs since the 1980s, but forgot his consultancy work with Emergent.

As soon as the Senate confirmed him, the stockpile focus began to shift further from infectious diseases to man-made threats. Large transparent gatherings were replaced by secret meetings for decision-making. “There has been foreign penetration by hostile governments stealing our national security information. So, we don’t hold it in the open anymore.” Said Kadlec.

*****

In July 2017, four days after Kadlec’s nomination, Emergent acquired the rights to a smallpox vaccine from the government’s previous supplier. Sanofi, the supplier, was charging $4.27 per dose.

The CDC in August 2018 said it intended to sign a five-year contract with Emergent for the smallpox vaccine. A month later, Kadlec declared the contract with Emergent was for ten years, and Emergent would be paid $9.44 per dose in the first year, a figure that would rise in succeeding years. Smallpox remains a potential threat to security, he said.

CDC mentioned on its website USA had enough smallpox vaccine for every American. In effect, every year the oldest stocks expired, were destroyed, and replenished by new stocks.

Kadlec also awarded Emergent a contract for $535 million to supply a product to take care of the side effects of smallpox vaccination. Another $67 million were paid to Emergent for a drug to treat cyanide exposure.

In March 2020, when testifying before Congress, Kadlec said he had not fully accounted for a scenario like the covid-19 crisis. “We thought about vaccines. We never thought about respirators being our first and only line of defence for health-care workers.” He said.

*****

In the last twelve months, Emergent has signed collaboration agreements with Novavax, J&J, and AstraZeneca for Emergent to manufacture their covid-19 vaccines at the Baltimore plant. Emergent petitioned and was approved to manufacture those vaccines. For the 2020 elections, Emergent handsomely contributed to both Republicans and Democrats.

*****

If you live in a country outside the USA, and are ashamed of the level of corruption in your country, you don’t need to be. Developed countries have more developed and sophisticated ways of corruption. Through checks and balances, independent judiciary, media scrutiny; corruption finds its way and prospers year after year. That is another issue the pandemic has succeeded in highlighting.

Ravi   

Corona Daily 158: The Emergent Story: Part Two

In 2007, an expert firm was invited to analyse the benefits of anthrax vaccines. Its analysis showed antibiotics were important in an anthrax attack, vaccines didn’t add any real additional value. Over the next ten years, analysts wrote the same conclusion: anthrax vaccine benefits were marginal.

The Emergent spokeswoman, while dismissing the analysis, said the government considered “many different factors” before making the purchase.

The stockpile always had a goal of maintaining a minimum of 75 million doses of the anthrax vaccine, which considering anthrax was not infectious, was a very high figure. What was the science behind this figure? NYT’s interview with Dr Kenneth Bernard, a biodefence advisor to George Bush, revealed it. He recalled a casual meeting after the 2001 attacks. One person at the meeting said he couldn’t imagine the terrorists attacking more than three cities simultaneously. So, they took the population of a large city (say, New York: 8+ million) and multiplied it by three to get 25 million. Since the anthrax vaccine needed three doses, the figure became 75 million. This informal talk from 2001 led to a contractual commitment to Emergent.

*****

To the media, and the stock markets, Emergent kept hammering the message: If you ask the head of the House intelligence committee what worried him most, he would say: Number one – anthrax. Number two-anthrax. Number three-anthrax. (Parallelly, work was carried out to influence the intelligence committee so they should really start believing in it).

Emergent’s board openly said they had no marketing expense, only lobbying expense. Since 2010, Emergent spent $3 million a year on lobbying, an enormous budget considering the size of the company.

In 2015, in view of the tight budgets, the stockpile managers recommended reducing anthrax vaccine purchases and using the money for other needs. That year, Emergent spent $4 million on lobbying. Lamar Alexander, a Republican senator, was an influential member of two committees overseeing the stockpile. His private firm was appointed to lobby against the proposals. Alexander received campaign contributions. In the USA, lobbying and campaign contributions legitimize and purify corruption.

The Emergent spokeswoman said the lobbying was necessary because government investment in biodefence had not been as strongly prioritized as it should be.

Chris Frech, who worked for George Bush, was appointed Emergent’s chief-in-house lobbyist. That year, Emergent contributed to the campaigns of all Democrats and Republicans on key committees that mattered.

When the Obama administration tried to reduce the purchases of anthrax vaccine, the Republican Congress accused them of going soft on terrorism.

The 2015 lobbying proved effective. Senate overseers opposed the reduction, and bought $300 million worth of BioTherax vaccine that nobody really needed.

*****  

In 2016, CDC announced the new contract would be for six rather than nine million doses. Emergent stock price plummeted. Emergent lobbyists promptly swung into action. They reached out to Senator Roy Blunt, the head of the committee controlling the stockpile budget. The same week, Emergent donated $10,000 to Blunt’s re-election campaign. Through the media, Emergent warned of job losses and ruin for the company if contract volume was reduced. Michigan, where Emergent was situated, was a swing state, and job losses there would hamper Hillary Clinton’s chances in the state. The US government gave in, and offered a $100 million bailout to Emergent, and retained the volumes.

*****

In the same year, 2016, one company had pitched a reusable mask for the stockpile. Federal officials were interested, but had no money. In April last year, the US government placed an order for 10 million masks with the same company. Faced with manufacturing challenges, it was unable to supply and the deal was cancelled. The current goal of the stockpile is to have 300 million respirators. When coronavirus emerged last year, the stockpile had 12 million.

*****

(Third and final part tomorrow).

Ravi 

Corona Daily 159: The Emergent Story: Part One

Tomorrow, on 10 March, the US president Joe Biden was scheduled to visit Baltimore. A company called “Emergent BioSolutions” has started producing the J&J and AstraZeneca vaccines in its Baltimore factory. Emergent promises to produce one billion doses a year. Biden planned to tour the factory tomorrow.

The visit was announced last Friday. Yesterday, it was cancelled.

******

Because on the weekend the New York Times published a story about Emergent. The story is big, and may be turned into a novel/movie in the future.

The story surprisingly begins with Bill Clinton reading a thriller in 1998. Clinton himself has written two thrillers in collaboration with James Patterson. (His second novel The President’s Daughter will be published in June this year.) In 1998, he read The Cobra Event by Richard Preston. A mad scientist cum bioterrorist creates a virus named Cobra and launches it on New York City. Such stories are nightmares for sitting presidents.

Until then, the USA had an emergency healthcare stockpile for military personnel, but not for civilians. It would be great for America’s preparedness to have a stockpile of masks, ventilators, PPEs, drugs, vaccines that can immediately respond to a man-made or natural crisis. This project eventually took the shape of the Strategic National Stockpile (SNS). If a year ago, the stockpile mechanism had functioned as it was supposed to, the USA could have had enough masks, protective gear, and ventilators and a few thousand lives could have been saved.

*****

Those old enough to remember 11 September 2001 may also recall the Anthrax bioterror attack that soon followed it. Media offices and a few senators received the anthrax virus by post. The packages killed five and infected seventeen people. Coming so soon after 9/11, the bioterror attempt terrified the nation and some senators became paranoid about opening their postal packages. It must be noted this was the last Anthrax incident in the USA.

Emergent BioSolutions became the sole company to supply anthrax vaccines to the US government.

*****

In 2020, at the beginning of the pandemic, US health workers didn’t have enough masks or protective gear. Some of them substituted trash bags for masks. State governors were screaming for ventilators. The pandemic has so far claimed more than half a million Americans.

While this was happening, the US government paid $626 million to Emergent for anthrax vaccines.

*****

The Stockpile and its twelve locations are a secret. The US government contracts with companies such as Emergent are also secret. The volumes, value or inventory are not in the public domain.

The New York Times investigative journalists studied 40,000 documents and talked to more than sixty people with inside knowledge of the stockpile.

In 2015, the US government had approved a plan to buy tens of millions of N95 respirators, lifesaving equipment for doctors and nurses. But there was no money for it. Already Emergent was paid more than $1 billion for anthrax and smallpox vaccines.

Emergent has only a single customer. The US government. And US government has agreed to keep buying Anthrax vaccines only from one supplier. Emergent. This monogamous relationship has allowed Emergent to increase their demands every year. It insists the government must increase investment to keep it safe from terrorists. If-you-don’t-invest-more-we-will-go-bankrupt is one of the negotiation tactics they use. When threatened, the government has obliged by paying them $100 million more.

In 2016, the stockpile already had enough doses to vaccinate 10 million people against anthrax. Anthrax is not infectious; it doesn’t spread like covid. Since 2012, not a single intelligence report mentions anthrax as a possible threat. The risk is possible, but not large enough to have an emergency stockpile filled with nothing but anthrax vaccines.

*****

2020 was the strongest and most profitable year in Emergent’s history – thanks to the anthrax and smallpox vaccines. Last month, the founder and the chairman cashed in their shares and options worth $42 million. Since then, the share price fell by 30%.

*****

(continued tomorrow)

Ravi 

Corona Daily 160: Girls not Brides

There is no joy in reading the UNICEF report published this morning to coincide with International Women’s Day. The report describes the huge threat posed by Covid-19 to wipe out the progress made in fighting girl child marriage.

Worldwide, 650 million girls and women are married while underage. The UN definition includes both formal and informal child marriages. In many countries, underage marriages are illegal, but they still happen without being registered. An unregistered marriage of a minor girl equally damages her life. Each year, about 12 million minor girls get married. These five leading countries account for more than half of them: India, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Ethiopia and Brazil.

Worldwide efforts on several fronts had reduced the numbers by some 15%. In the last decade, an estimated 25 million girls were saved from premature marriages. A single year of the pandemic has changed all that. Now it is feared we will see an additional 10 million child brides in the next ten years.

*****

An underage girl thrust into a marriage is robbed of her childhood. Her education stops. She starts living in a family of strangers. Traditional families expect her not to work outside the home. There is family pressure and societal expectation for her to get pregnant. She is neither physically nor mentally mature. In developing countries, many young girls die of pregnancy complications or during childbirth. If she survives the childbirth, housework and children become her function in life. This allows patriarchal societies to perpetuate the gender imbalance and remain backward.

The same girl, by postponing marriage for another ten years, can graduate, become employable for a decent job, be financially and psychologically independent, and able to control her life and maternity better.

*****

Covid-19 has shaken the life of a child girl more than we can imagine.

School closures are perhaps the biggest factor. In many developing countries, schools provided meals and security. Maharashtra, the Indian state I live in, provides free education to girls until 18 years of age. Uninterrupted education is a major tool for women empowerment. Some schools also provide sanitary products. Their supply became unreliable during the pandemic. Even in richer countries like Australia and Ireland, women reported price rises and shortages.

Economic shocks have contributed. Poor people have lost jobs, and must feed children who would have received meals at schools. For these families, education and marriage compete, rather than complement. It is convenient to give off the daughter and reduce the burden. With girls not going to school, the risk of sexual violence is high. S0me parents arrange a daughter’s marriage in the belief it will protect her from violence from other men in the community. In countries like India, where weddings are expensive, dowry is prevalent, parents are taking advantage of lockdowns to arrange an economical wedding and avail dowry discounts. In the marriage market, the younger the bride, the lesser the dowry.

Support services are interrupted. Several helplines and support centers normally exist to prevent child marriages, to counsel the girls about contraception and pregnancy, to dissuade parents from giving away their minor daughter, offer financial support. In the lockdown, many such services were inaccessible. Schools were often a good mediating point. Contraception supplies became erratic. Unwanted teen pregnancies sometimes translated into unwanted marriages.

*****

India has done good work in the last few decades in terms of incentivizing parents who keep their daughters in education, starting helplines for girls, running awareness campaigns. In many families, tradition is still stronger than the law. Every year 1.5 million underage Indian girls are thrown into a marriage. In the pandemic, reports say there are instances of 12/13-year-old girls marrying.

India and all developing countries in Asia and Africa should focus on reopening schools. Immediately. They have been shut for nearly a year now. The virus damage as a result of schools reopening can’t be worse than a child marriage. Because nothing can be worse than a child bride.

Ravi   

Corona Daily 161: A Bright Orange Label 139

Christians, Muslims and Jews generally bury their dead, Hindus and Buddhists cremate them. A rumour says the resurrection of Jesus Christ provoked burials, with every Christian hoping to emulate the feat of Jesus. A more likely explanation is a practical one. When space for the living is limited, they can’t keep sharing it with coffins and tombstones. In China, since 2016, “vertical” burials are encouraged to save space. No Resting In Peace, I don’t think. Indian churches usually shift the bones to a pit after 2-3 years to make space. An Indian court has recommended building multi-story graveyards. In the pandemic, since March 2020, Sri Lanka forced Muslims and Christians to cremate. WHO has clarified burials of virus positive bodies don’t really pose a risk. After domestic outrage and international criticism, Sri Lanka amended the law last week to allow burials.

***** 

In the USA, many families are dispersed. Some have attended funerals on zoom, memorial services have been delayed or cancelled. In 2020, more than 3.2 million Americans died, an all-time record. Unusually, more than half were cremated. (In 1960, only 4% were cremated).  

USPS, the official federal service is the only post allowed to send the “cremated remains”. The box carries a bright orange sticker, with Label 139 printed on it. Label 139 increases visibility during processing and transportation. A sealable plastic bag, bubble wrap and cardboard box is the special kit for human ashes. Sent by priority express mail, it requires a signature before the box is handed over. It would be too cruel to come back home, and find cremated remains in the post-box.

Though it is ‘priority express’ mail, Americans are facing inordinate delays. The USPS website warns about delays because of the sheer volume. One Charlotte man lost his mother in September. This was followed by lockdowns and winter storms. Then he lost his mother again, when the post misplaced the box. He finally received it a week ago. In some cases, people have received wrong boxes. Apparently, after cremation due to its high temperature burning, DNA testing can’t tell whose ashes are in the box. At an additional cost, one can ask for a witness cremation, where the tag and the loved one are identified before going to the cremation chamber.

Stan Reese, 56, has started a new business called “Eternal Alaska”. He personally collects ashes, and hand carries them to scenic places. On a video call, he scatters them for the relatives to see.

*****

Finances play a role. Casket and a cemetery plot are prohibitively expensive for many. Cost of dying keeps going up as well. An average funeral in the USA costs $9000. After housing and car, death care services are said to be the third costliest expense in life (or afterlife). Funeral poverty is a term increasingly used in pandemic times. The US government has set aside $2 billion to help with funeral costs. It promises to reimburse up to $7000.

Cremation, on the other hand, is simple and inexpensive. Unlike a buried body, ashes are portable (can be sent by post), divisible, and easily scattered.

American people who were married a few times, often request to divide their ashes and give equal share to each spouse. (When the spouses die, in ash form, they can be united with each of them). Parents’ ashes are usually divided when given to children.

Many cities have created scattering gardens. In particular, ashes are scattered in the garden which was the favorite of the departed soul. Boat owners ferry families three miles off shore (requirement of the environment protection agency) in case they wish to immerse ashes in a river or sea. In view of the shift to cremations, cemeteries are now planning to build more columbarium, structures with individual niches for a person’s ashes. Designers are developing new urns made of classic Carrara marble boxes or other custom-made designs.

With the post office delivering cremated remains (called cremains), the cremation stigma doesn’t exist any more. The shape of the post-pandemic world for the living is hard to predict. For the dead, though, it looks like cremation would become the first choice.

Ravi 

Corona Daily 162: Your Car is not Safe

Last month, Michael Kevane, an economics professor living in San Jose, California, parked his 2005 Prius out on the driveway. Next morning, when his son went to start it up, it sounded like a drilling machine. All the neighbours in the block could hear it. Two days later, the professor’s sister Jean, who lives in Los Angeles, had an identical experience with her 2003 Honda Accord LX. This can’t be a coincidence, thought Michael Kevane.

In another American state, Minneapolis, Andrew Reichenbach’s repair shop has had three Mitsubishis come in with their exhaust pipes sawed off. In recent months, dozens of cars were landing at the repair shop with the same limb missing. Mitsubishis seem to be the new target, said Reichenbach. He called it a pandemic within a pandemic.

This international crime wave is reported in the USA, Europe, UK, India and other places. The cars’ catalytic converters are being stolen.

*****

Catalytic converter is the exhaust emission control device.  It reduces toxic gasses and pollutants. America, Europe, Asia and China keep on raising emission standards.

This device is located under your car. A professional thief can unscrew the device in minutes, and take it away. But most thieves in pandemic times are not professionals. They come with a pipe-cutter or a saw and while cutting the converter also cause much damage to other car components, such as the alternator, wiring or fuel lines.

What is so attractive about Catalytic converters right now?

*****

They have a mix of precious metals such as platinum, palladium and rhodium. Except those with PhDs in chemistry, few would have heard of Rhodium (Rh).

Rhodium (meaning rose in Greek) is a silvery-white material, mainly used in the automobile industry. It is the best-known metal to remove the most toxic pollutants from the vehicle exhaust. As regulations on emissions become stricter, the demand for rhodium grows.

Rhodium’s price in August 2016 was $625 an ounce. Today, it has skyrocketed to $29,000 per ounce. (Making it 17 times more expensive than Gold, which is $1700 an ounce). Since the start of the pandemic, it is steadily climbing, making our cars (or rather one of their components) more expensive. And accordingly, prone to be stolen.

Why is the Rhodium price rising, and will it come down?

*****

South Africa is the key producer of Rhodium. If their mines were to produce more Rhodium, the prices can come down. But they won’t. Because Rhodium is not produced by itself, it is a byproduct. Each unit of ore mined typically contains 60% platinum, 30% palladium and 8% rhodium. Unless platinum is mined, rhodium can’t be produced. And currently platinum and palladium suffer from excessive supply. Rhodium shortages are estimated to be over 150,000 ounces, and expected to grow until a substitute is found or vehicles switch over to electric. The price is expected to keep rising till 2025. The risk to our cars as well.

*****

Since 2020, many thieves have become unemployed, and some unemployed have become thieves. Pockets are more difficult to pick in lockdown times. Cars are stationary, and some thefts are not noticed for weeks. Law enforcement is slack. A few minutes’ work under the car can fetch you over $500. The thief sells the anonymous converter in the black market, the scrapyard sells it to recyclers who extract the metals. Older cars tend to contain more of the precious metals than newer ones. Hybrid cars (using a combination of petrol/diesel and electric) contain more precious metals. Honda Jazz, Toyota Prius, Toyota Auris, Lexus RX and Mitsubishi are some of the reported popular models.

*****

Because no other party is involved, like in an accident, insurance generally doesn’t cover this theft. The car owner loses about $2000. It is important to park your car in secured places, and get effective alarms. If you see someone suspiciously under any vehicle, call the police.

Though they are not PhDs in chemistry or MBAs in finance, thieves worldwide have learnt to keep an eye on the price of Rhodium.

Ravi 

Corona Daily 163: The Pope in Iraq

Pope Francis arrived in Iraq today for a three-day visit.

The coronavirus cases in Iraq have surged from eight hundred a day in January to five thousand a day now. Vatican’s ambassador in Iraq, Mitja Leskovar, has tested positive, and won’t be allowed to see the Pope. On Wednesday, there were rocket attacks, including one near Erbil airport, where the Pope will arrive on Sunday. The US embassy in Iraq issued a warning today to American citizens: “Attacks may occur with little or no warning, impacting airports, tourist locations, transportation hubs, markets/shopping malls, and local government facilities.” Not known whether the warning had anything to do with the papal visit.

*****

In July 2019, Iraq’s president Barham Salih had invited Pope Francis. Then the pandemic happened, and the Pope went into a year-long isolation. The invitation must have been open-ended.

In 2000, Pope John Paul II sought to make a pilgrimage to Iraq. But negotiations with Saddam Hussein’s government failed. John Paul wept, according to Pope Francis. Benedict XVI was invited in 2008, but having no suicidal tendencies, he didn’t visit in the middle of a war.

Pope Francis said he didn’t want to disappoint the Iraqi people. He was perhaps emboldened by the two Pfizer shots he received. His entourage is vaccinated as well. Iraq hasn’t yet got any vaccines.

Today, he became the first Pope to visit Iraq. More than 1000 Christians and 2000 Muslims received him at the airport. Baghdad roads were cleaned and full of roses. Curfew was in place anyway for coronavirus. Large posters of the slain commander Qassim Soleimani and Iraqi militia leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandid have been temporarily replaced by the smiling photos of Pope Francis. Pope Francis left the airport in a bullet-proof black BMW. During his trip, he will tour Iraq in cars, helicopters and flights.

*****

Christianity’s roots in Iraq date back to the first decades of the faith. The tombs of biblical figures such as Jonah and Joshua are believed to be here. On Saturday, the Pope will attend an inter-religious meeting at the Plain or Ur, the home of Abraham, the patriarch of Judaism, Christianity and Islam. (My short story Baqri-Id was based on the Abraham story told in Bible as well as Koran).

Until 2003, Iraq had nearly 1.2 million Christians. Saddam Hussein offered them protection; he even had a Christian deputy PM.  Between 2014 and 2017, the Islamic State tried to eliminate Christianity from Iraq. The Jihadists gave the Christians three options. Leave, convert to Islam or get killed. So many fled that the latest estimate is around 250,000 Christians.

*****

Earlier on Saturday, Pope Francis will fly to Najaf, the holiest city, for a meeting with Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani. Pope Francis is 84, whereas the Grand Ayatollah is 90. This is a mild Ayatollah, proposed for a Nobel peace prize a few times, without getting it. In Iraq, they don’t have the celibacy nonsense. Ayatollah is married and has two sons. He and the Pope will meet by themselves (one assumes with interpreters) for peace talks.

*****

In June 1999, I stood for a few hours on the central street of Warsaw to see John Paul II. I was only a few feet away from him when his bullet-proof glass chariot rode past. What astounded me that day was the level of security. Snipers were placed on rooftops. The Pope is one of the highest security risks in the world.

Though Vatican has said social distancing, masks and curfew will be observed, it is unlikely to happen. Today, more than 10,000 security forces are deployed on the streets. Biden, only the second Catholic president after John Kennedy, will need to be careful not to drop any retaliatory bombs on Iraq until Monday. On Sunday, when Pope Francis performs at a soccer stadium, the roads and stadium will be full. Christians out of devotion, and Muslims out of curiosity will crowd the streets.       

Iraq is controlled by six different militia groups. Talking to the 90-year-old Ayatollah is unlikely to solve any problems. The intent of Pope Francis's visit may be good, but its timing is bizarre and irresponsible. 

Ravi                                                                                                                            

Corona Daily 164: Bee Dot One Dot Three Five One

Scientists and the World Health Organisation are genuinely worried. About the complete chaos in naming the different coronavirus variants. I wrote earlier about the 2015 WHO guidelines that prohibit places or animals when naming viruses. Nobody had imagined then that not only a virus, but its variants may have to be named.

Names should be simple, easy to pronounce, type and memorise. This is how we name our children (Elon Musk the only exception). Look at SARS-CoV-2. It looks more like a strong password. People prefer to use the imprecise Covid instead.

*****

It would have been all right if only the public and media were confused. But the scientists too are confused about naming the variants. One scientist said: You can’t track something you can’t name.

The dangerous variant colloquially called “the UK variant” is named VOC 202012/01 by Public Health England. VOC is Variant of Concern. A group of scientists call it B.1.1.7. Some English tabloids call it the “Kent variant”.

“20H/501Y.V2”, “VOC202012/02” and “B.1.351” (pronounced bee dot one dot three five one) are three names for the same variant popularly known as the “South African variant”. Like with a password, if you miss a single digit or dot, it may become another variant.

*****

It is dangerous to name the variants after nations, as is done currently. These nations have identified these variants, they didn’t necessarily start there. UK and South Africa have more advanced genome surveillance. But fearing the transmissibility of the “UK variant” some countries may be tempted to ban travel from the UK. Worse, stigmatizing places would mean their scientists would be reluctant in future to declare new variants. Expressions such as “the South African variant of the Wuhan virus” may also encourage xenophobia and racist attacks.

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When WHO didn’t exist, the world managed to come up with simple names. ‘Cancer’ is Greek for crab, because Greek physicians found some tumours similar to crabs. Asthma was the Greek word for panting. Plague was the translation of stroke or wound. Diabetes meant “to pass through”, to describe excessive discharge of urine. Influenza, an Italian word, referred to an outbreak. Its short form “flu” is a wonderful example of how easy a name can be.

Scientists the world over are trying to grapple with the naming crisis. One proposal suggests naming the variants in chronological order, V1, V2, V3 and so on. This unimaginative solution may find a few supporters. Hurricanes, Greek letters, birds, animals (though banned by WHO), local monsters are some others. Colours is another option.

One group of scientists tried to convert the scientific names into mnemonics: D614G became “Doug”, N501Y “Nelly” and E484K “Eeek”. (Eeek makes the virus less susceptible to vaccines). The last one was supposed to be called Eric, but that was the name of one scientist in the group, so they settled for Eeek.

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GSAID (Global initiative on sharing all influenza data) is a database for naming. It would have been wonderful if it was the only one. But there are two more: Pango and Nextstrain. All three competing systems follow their own methods. A mutant is a virus that has in its genetic code mutations, different from the wild genotype acquired via errors. A variant is a mutant, and a strain is a variant with a markedly different manifestation (transmissibility, lethality, effect on immunity or vaccines). Apparently, even scientists are not precise about using those terms.

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Sickened by the whole mess, on 14 January WHO held a meeting to discuss a new standardized naming system for variants. It is hoped the system will be generated before the pandemic is over.

Ravi 

Corona Daily 165: The Foetal Issue

Yesterday, the US conference of Catholic Bishops asked Catholics to avoid the newly approved Johnson & Johnson vaccine. The vaccine was termed morally corrupt, because it uses cells derived decades ago from an abortion.

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The Vatican and Pope Francis have been more practical. Considering the severity of the pandemic, and the remote connection with abortion, Vatican declared it was morally acceptable to take vaccines for the greater good. This didn’t make abortion any less evil, it added. Pope Francis took two Pfizer shots. All five thousand Vatican employees are asked to be vaccinated. Those who don’t are threatened with the loss of their jobs.

When Vatican issued the statement, the Johnson & Johnson vaccine was not yet in the picture. Pfizer and Moderna use different technologies.

What exactly is the issue with foetal tissue?

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Way back in the 1960s Dr Leonard Hayflick, an American scientist, first used cells derived from foetal tissues in clinical research. The cells were created from an aborted four-month gestation foetus. That cell line was successfully used to create a plethora of vaccines against rubella, rabies, polio, measles, chickenpox. Human foetal tissue has also been used to study HIV/AIDS, birth defects, Parkinson’s, Alzheimer’s and many other diseases.

Most of the Covid-19 vaccines use only two foetal tissues, both created in the labs of the Netherlands. One (HEK-293) is a kidney cell line derived from a foetus aborted in 1972. The other (PER.C6) is the one used in the J&J vaccine. That was created from the eye cells of an 18-week foetus aborted in 1985. Just two foetuses, one from 1972 and another from 1985. Both abortions were voluntary, requested by the parents.

It is important to note those foetal tissues are not used in the vaccines, but foetal cell lines. Foetal cell lines are grown in a laboratory. They descend from the 1972 and 1985 cells. But over the last forty or fifty years, the current foetal cell lines are thousands of generations removed from the original tissues. They hardly contain any tissue from a foetus. This is what Vatican probably meant when it talked of the vaccines’ ‘remoteness’ from aborted foetuses.

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Vaccines such as the J&J vaccine use altered adenovirus, which cannot replicate by itself. The foetal-derived cell line provides the replication machinery that allows generating vast amounts of the virus. Animal cells are not as effective in generating a robust and specific immune response as human cells.  Pfizer and Moderna did perform confirmation tests using foetal cell lines. The J&J vaccine used the foetal cell lines in production as well. That makes it morally corrupt.

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In 2019, the Trump administration banned use of foetal tissue from abortions in research. But the policy allowed use of decades old foetal cell lines. That is why we have covid vaccines today. Trump himself was treated with a cocktail of monoclonal antibodies that he described as “cure”. That and Remdesivir, the drug given to him, were both developed using cells from aborted foetuses. Republicans talk of the sanctity of human life and promoting guns in the same breath. Trump, in his last days as a president, obsessively carried out three executions, despite knowing his successor planned to abolish the federal death sentence.

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The case of Savita Halappanavar, a 31-year-old dentist in Ireland, is well known. She died unnecessarily, begging for an abortion. Catholic Irish laws didn’t allow abortions. She and the unborn baby both died.

The catholic priest sex abuse report mentions several instances of the priests asking the nuns they have impregnated to go for quick abortions.

The final decision to abort must belong to the pregnant woman, not to an organization that allows only men in their hierarchy.

Ravi