Corona Daily 302: Comb. Brush. The Sink.

This summer, an American woman was getting ready to celebrate her tenth wedding anniversary. In the mirror, she suddenly noticed a bald spot on her scalp. Her thick long hair had started falling in clumps, it was everywhere. In the comb. Brush. The sink. Earlier, in April, she had been hospitalized for two weeks with coronavirus symptoms.

There is a Facebook group of Corona-19 survivors. It essentially comprises of the “long haulers” – the ex-patients who continue to experience a variety of symptoms for a long time. When the American lady joined the FB group, she found hundreds of others talking about the shocking shedding of an abnormal quantity of hair. Women from different continents were vocal about it. For women, balding or thinning of hair is far more traumatic.

In a July survey among 1567 covid-survivors, 423 members reported unusual hair loss.

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Humans normally have between 100,000 and 150,000 hairs on their head. A normal and healthy hair cycle has three phases: growing, resting, and shedding. At any time, up to 90% of the hairs are growing, 5% are resting, and up to 10% are shedding. It is normal to lose 80-100 hairs every day.

Some Covid-19 ex-patients experience a large chunk of hair moving from the growing to the shedding phase. As a result, only about 40% are in the growth phase, 50% in the shedding. When shedding outnumbers growing, hair becomes thinner, and bald patches can appear.

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Why is this happening?

There are three different types of conditions. Telogen effluvium. Alopecia areata. Trichotillomania.

The type most covid-19 patients have is telogen effluvium, a temporary loss of hair caused by physical or emotional stress, high fever, illness or weight loss, many of the symptoms common with the virus. Far more than 100 hairs are lost daily. It is not just on the crown like a typical male bald patch, but all over the head.

This condition happens to some pregnant women. They experience similar symptoms after delivery. The hair loss usually lasts for about six months, then head reverts to its natural state.

In alopecia areata, the other hair loss condition, the immune system attacks the hair follicles, starting with a patch of hair on the scalp or beard. Again, it relates to psychological stress.

Trichotillomania, the least common condition, is when people start pulling their hair as a response to stress. Some people chew nails, some binge eat, and believe it or not, some pull their hair. It is a disorder in which there is an irresistible urge to keep pulling hair out from the scalp.

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In the lockdown, and generally in the pandemic, many people are less disciplined about their hair grooming habits. If pre-pandemic, you shampooed your head daily, and now do it every 3-4 days, you will find more hair in the brush or the sink. Instead of 100 hairs a day, it will be like 250-280 hairs every third day. That is no cause for worry.

In all other cases, it is stress. Stress is now omnipresent. Those who have been ill with covid and those who haven’t can experience loss of hair. Experts suggest good nutrition, vitamins, yoga or meditation to reduce stress. However, yoga or meditation will not help people who have lost their jobs, become bankrupt, lost someone close or have other pandemic related worries. Some women also fall prey to the self-fulfilling prophecy. They worry about the loss of hair so much, it causes undue stress, resulting in further loss of hair.

The good news is that in most cases, this loss of hair is temporary. It will last for 6-12 months, and the condition will disappear. Stay-at-home makes it easier to bear that period with equanimity.

Ravi      

Corona Daily 303: No Words Left

Aritana Yawalapiti, 71, one of Brazil’s influential indigenous leaders died of covid-19 in August. A quiet, dignified man, the tribal chief was successful in resolving conflicts between tribes and dealing with non-indigenous people.

“Awiri Nuha”, said the dying man to his son, in Yawalapiti, “take care of the people. Take care of the land. Take care of the forest.” With Aritana’s death, his language moved closer to extinction. Only two people in their late seventies speak it, but they live in different villages. With chronological precision, covid-19 picked off Aritana’s mother, then uncle, aunt and finally Aritana himself.

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India has more endangered languages than Brazil. India’s Andaman and Nicobar Islands are home to some of the oldest tribes in the world. Two years ago, on the Sentinel islands, (part of the Andaman range), a young American missionary went to save the souls of the tribals. They instantly killed him with an arrow. They have been practicing social distancing for centuries.

Mrs Licho, a resident of Port Blair, recently died in a hospital there. In her sixties, she was the last speaker of “Sare”. The language Sare was 70000 years old, and with Mrs Licho’s death, it is now extinct. Mrs Licho often spoke to birds and animals in her language. She said they were her ancestors who understood what she was saying. When a single speaker is left, it is a tragedy for her not to be able to converse in her native tongue.

Each language has special words that highlight subtle nuances about the community. Sare had a word ‘raupuch’ for a person who has lost his/her sibling. In our languages, we have widow/widower (loss of spouse), orphan (loss of parents), but rarely loss of a sibling. It tells us how important the sibling relationship was among Sare speakers.

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The world has around 6800 languages. Almost 600 are critically endangered. Nearly 150 are spoken by no more than ten people. As a rule, those are elderly people, in fact they are called ancients. Covid-19 threatens to speed up the process of making them and their languages extinct. In the state of Mississippi, Choctaw Indians is the only recognized native American tribe. It has lost 81 members so far to the virus. Navajo nation, America’s largest reservation, has recorded more than 560 deaths.

In Australia, Peter Salmon, an 86-year-old man is the last fluent speaker of two languages, Warriyangga and Thiinmato. Recently, a group of linguists had planned an expedition to meet him to record those languages. They cancelled it for fear of infecting the old man.

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When a language dies, the world loses a lot more than merely words. The concepts. History. Philosophy. Stories and fairytales. Lullabies. Music. Nuances.

My mother, 82, is a Sanskrit professor. She is among a few hundred survivors who can speak the language. Sanskrit has at least 20 different words for the sun, the moon, water, a mountain or a river. How many words does English have for them? This nuance tells us that Hindus, even the priests who spoke in Sanskrit, and the sages who created the Vedas were pagans. Nature was probably more important for them than Gods.

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When an animal species becomes extinct, it is immensely sad. We don’t want to live in a world that has only dogs, cats and rats. It is the same with languages. Bigger languages gradually crush the minor languages. But the death of any language, however small, is a loss for the human race.

Ravi 

Corona Daily 304: No Time to Release

I haven’t seen a James Bond film in five years, an intolerably long time. Since March, cinemas in Bombay have been shut.  “No time to die”, Bond no. 25 had postponed its worldwide premier from April to November. I was hoping the multiplexes would open by then, allowing me to attend the first show.

This week, the James Bond release was postponed to April 2021. That announcement acted like a nuclear bomb for the cinemas. Cineworld, world’s second biggest chain, closed all its 663 theaters. 40,000 employees in the USA and 5000 employees in the UK are in danger of losing their jobs. Odeon, the UK chain, declared many of its theatres will be open only on weekends.

James Bond rescues gorgeous women, British dignity, civil society, but this time his job was to rescue the worldwide cinemas. He failed.

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Since the beginning of the pandemic, most cinemas remained shut. Movie lovers grudgingly shifted to binge watching on Netflix or a similar platform. In places where cinemas opened, there was a 25-50% cap on occupancy for social distancing. Theatre owners were expected to invest in santisters, masks, improved ventilation, providing popcorns in pre-packed boxes, temperature checks. Viewers, despite everything, don’t feel confident yet.

Then Hollywood began cancelling releases. Cinema theatres live on blockbusters. Either the production or the release of Mulan, Black Widow, F9 (fast and furious), Wonder woman 1984 (Gal Gadot), Mission impossible: 7/8, Batman were postponed.

Warner brothers risked releasing “Tenet” in the summer. That was a guinea pig for Hollywood and for the exhibitors. In pre-covid times, the Christopher Nolan film would have grossed $50 million on the opening weekend, just like his previous films. It debuted over the labour day weekend, and still made less than $10 million. This scared the James Bond producers.

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The last Bond film, Spectre, grossed $879 million, 77% of which was made outside north America. It is a truly global series running for nearly sixty years. No Time to die has a reported budget of $250 million. In normal times, it would have earned $1.5 billion dollars, despite the falling standards of Bond movies.

But Hollywood’s mecca and medina, Los Angeles and New York are still shut. Bollywood’s Bombay is shut. Places which buy the costliest tickets are the worst affected by coronavirus. For once, James Bond decided not to risk it.

“We are like a grocery shop that doesn’t have vegetables, fruit, meat,” said Mooky Greidinger, the Cineworld CEO. “We can’t operate for a long time without a product.”

India, in its green zones, will open cinemas from 15 October with a 50% cap, and a long list of restrictions. It will face the same problems. Because Bombay is shut, the blockbusters will not be released. And without blockbusters, viewers don’t think the risk-reward equation works. (Some theatres in Europe and USA are showing classics. That niche is not helping them break even.)

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A question has been raised - will the pandemic kill cinemas? I don’t think so. Cinema is a different medium than the small screen. A visit to a cinema theatre is an event. You can’t possibly ask a new date to watch a movie together on your laptop. Movies like James Bond or 3-D movies are made for the giant screens. One can replay them at home or on a flight, it’s not the same. If the cinema theatres are shut for ever, so will James Bond.

China has recovered, new blockbusters are released. Chinese cinemas are full, their revenue gone back to pre-covid levels. That gives me hope the same thing will happen worldwide. I don’t fancy travelling to China to watch a Chinese James Bond.

Ravi 

Corona Daily 305: Big Brand Tyranny

Amazon acted fast. When the USA was in the grip of historic unemployment, Amazon hired 175000 warehouse workers. Though they were given zero-hour contracts, meaning contracts that didn’t guarantee a minimum number of weekly hours, Amazon paid them an extra $2 per hour until May. In June, a one time thank-you bonus of $500 was paid to full-time warehouse associates.

Jeff Bezos’s mind is on Blue Origin, the rocket company that one day will take him to the moon or mars. His other priorities are Alexa, which has 10000 employees working fulltime on it; and expensive Hollywood productions that can be watched on Amazon Prime. Online retail business is the cash cow. And yet, Jeff Bezos and the top bosses of Amazon spent every day discussing emergency covid strategies to maximise opportunities.

They were lucky to get more opportunities. Italians love to visit shops. Between March and May, more than two million Italians tried e-commerce for the first time. During the lockdown 75% Italians shopped online, sales grew 26% to a record 22.7 billion Euros. A sad Italian described the future of an Italian village as “a village with couriers and without shops.”

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The key reason for Amazon prospering, though, is that such brands have become monopolies, commercial tyrants.

Concentration of power is always dangerous. In politics, civilized societies create checks and balances. The law-makers, the governing powers, the judges, the media are expected to act as one another’s auditors. This is why a US president runs out of power after eight years. A president or a Prime Minister can be impeached or removed, or in extreme cases tried in courts. When politicians, even in democracies, attack the checks and balances mechanism, democracy gives way to dictatorship.

In business, this function was expected to be served by the anti-trust and anti-monopoly bodies. What do we see in practice?

With the Indian economy becoming liberal, Coca-Cola entered India, bought the company which made Thums-up, (a local Cola), which in every consumer research was preferred to Coca-cola. Coke bought Thums-up so as to stop its production. This is not how capitalism is supposed to work.

WhatsApp is an amazing invention. Billions fell in love with it for business and pleasure. As soon as it became successful, what happened? Facebook bought it. As soon as Instagram became successful, what happened? Facebook bought it. Anti-monopoly laws are not supposed to allow such acquisitions.

I have a few Apple devices in my house. Each device has a unique charger with a pre-programmed short life expectancy. And each charger is super-expensive. Unless I update whatever Apple wishes me to update, and digitally sign whatever it wants me to sign, my i-phone stops functioning. This is not how consumer protection is supposed to work.

Granted Bill Gates, Mark Zuckerburg and Jeff Bezos are geniuses who have revolutionized the world. That doesn’t mean they should be allowed to become business tyrants. Google, Amazon, Apple and Facebook are currently being investigated by the American Congress. Sweeping reforms and antitrust laws are being talked about. Unfortunately, those tech-monarchs have enough financial muscle to buy off protesting politicians.

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Today, PriceWaterhouseCoopers and UBS, the Swiss bank, published a report “riding the storm”. In the pandemic, total billionaire wealth reached $10.2 trillion, an all-time record. Between April and July, the wealth of billionaires went up by 27.5%. The superrich benefited from the crisis, because they had “the stomach” to buy more shares when equity markets crashed. Shares in Amazon and other technology companies rose very sharply.

Concentrated, unchecked power in the hands of politicians or businessmen creates dictators. Amazon now qualifies as one.

Ravi 

Corona Daily 306: One Click Shopping

Sometime in March, I ordered a pack of Gillet fusion blades. Then India went into a lockdown for nearly two months. In June and July, I was still waitlisted for the blades. Finally, I cancelled the order. Amazon stocks more than 100 million items with a promise to deliver most of them in forty-eight hours. In the USA, more than 100 million households are Amazon prime members.

Amazon, like most of the world, relies on Chinese manufacturing. China is the largest source of consumer goods. Even when things are manufactured locally, they may depend on China. A factory in Sacramento, USA makes ketchup, but the tomato paste, bottles and caps are imported from China. Cowboy hats and cowboy boots ($85), classic American symbols, are exclusively made in China. In late January, China went into a lockdown and the country’s manufacturing came to a sudden halt for weeks. For the last thirty years, companies like Walmart and Amazon have focused on “just in time” by excelling in logistics. The stocks started depleting.

In February and March, toilet paper orders jumped 186% on Amazon, year on year. Cough and cold medicines orders went up by 862%. Americans started ordering popular card games for the lockdown. They were told Amazon couldn’t supply those games any more. In Europe, consumers were trying to order wine and ham, web cameras, printer cartridges, fitness equipment. Orders for standing desks and inflatable swimming pools, particularly for kids, went through the roof. But many of these items were out of stock.

Because when the Chinese manufacturing resumed, goods still needed to be shipped from China to the USA and other countries. The shipping industry had a labour crisis with thousands of workers stranded on the ships because their countries wouldn’t open the doors for them.

Packaging was another issue. What we order on Amazon is packaged in plastic pouches, bottles, aluminum cans, cardboard boxes, bubble wraps. All these materials must be manufactured as well, before a product can be shipped. The liquid hand sanitizer was produced in three shifts, but the bottle manufacturing lagged much behind.

Once the products and packaging were made and shipped to the ports, trucks must distribute them to warehouses and stores. But long-distance trucking had become complicated. Lockdowns had imposed serious restrictions on vehicle movement. The cafes and hot meal stalls on highways, so essential for the long rides, were shut.

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Workers at Amazon warehouses were falling ill or just staying at home. In the UK, unions called their working conditions “hellish”. In April, workers in the USA staged a mass protest demanding immediate closure of more than 50 warehouses with positive cases. Amazon fired six workers who spoke against the company. The reasons given ranged from vulgar language to not following social distancing. Tim Bray, the vice president, resigned disappointed with the level of toxicity in the company culture.

By 22 May, eight Amazon employees died of Covid-19. A lawsuit was launched against Amazon in New York on 4 June.

Last week, Amazon officially admitted a total 20,000 of its employees tested positive between 1 March and 19 September.

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Despite all this, Amazon became the biggest winner of the pandemic. Jeff Bezos, the richest man in the world, made $88 billion in the course of the pandemic. Sales went up by 40%, and profits doubled. As to how or why this happened, I will discuss in tomorrow’s article.

Ravi

Corona Daily 307: London Marathon at Home

Yesterday, on a gloomy, wet and dark Sunday morning, world’s marathon record holder for women, Brigid Kosgei, was woken up at 03.30 by her alarm. The English hotel she stayed at was allowed to host marathon runners exclusively. The elite men and women who run like cheetahs had been living in a bio-secure bubble for the past two weeks. Each athlete was tested every day. They were allocated a 40-acre ground for practice runs. Each wore a ‘bump device’ around the neck. If two runners came dangerously close to one another (meaning within six feet), both devices lit and emitted a loud alarm. The same device would later let runners know if anyone who came close to them had tested positive. During the training, runners were given individual changing rooms, and individual toilets. This was in London.

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Throughout yesterday, 43000 runners from 109 countries had set their alarms at their convenience. They had paid £25 to download an app (created by the Indian company Tata Consulting Services) that would track their time from start to finish. They could run the 42 km on the streets, woods, beaches, parks or even around their house. On crossing the finish line, as confirmed by the magical app, the runner received a digital certificate by email. In a few days, they will receive a branded t-shirt and an official London marathon medal by post.

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Like the grand slam venues in Lawn tennis, marathon running has six major races annually. London, Boston, Tokyo, Berlin, Chicago and New York. London has a beautiful route set on the river Thames, with views of the Tower of London, Big Ben, Buckingham palace, London eye. The race ends in St James’s park. The race is so popular, it’s difficult to get in. In 2019, 414000 runners applied, 56000 were accepted, and 43000 finished the race. The 50,000+participants and 750,000 spectators make the fourth Sunday of April a festival in central London. Well behaved crowds cheer the fastest men and women, uniformed volunteers stand with water bottles and sponges, medical staff is ready with sprays and stretchers.

This year, spectators were banned.

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Except the Tokyo marathon that happened in March, all other marathons are cancelled this year. London marathon decided to allow only elites, a handful of men and women, the fastest, to run roughly 20 laps of 2.15 km each around St James’s park. Prizes were half of last year. Usually, the flat course allows world records.

English weather is notorious. Yesterday, the marathon coincided with Storm Alex. It rained from start to finish, a unique and unpleasant experience even for the elite runners. Instead of spectators, large cardboard cutouts of the Queen, Prince Charles, Prince William were placed along the route. (Don’t know how that helps the runners).

Kenya’s Eliud Kipchoge, who for the last six years has won every marathon race he took part in, had his right ear blocked 15 km before the finish line, and it didn’t open. He came eighth. Kenya’s Brigid Kosgei, though, won as expected.

No matter where a race is, the winners, both men and women, are from Kenya or Ethiopia. It was the same, with one exception. An American white woman came second, a performance that showed to the world that “white runners matter”.

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Those who ran the virtual marathon enjoyed the race more, with the start time, pace, and route all decided by them. In 2021, London marathon will happen again in October. Encouraged by the response, the organisers have made the entry fee for the virtual marathon £125 the next year.

Ravi 

Corona Daily 308: Founding Father’s Flu

Illnesses of American presidents often change the course of history.

George Washington, the founding father, managed to experience malaria, smallpox, tuberculosis, dysentery, boils, loss of teeth (because he tried to break almonds) deafness, infertility, tonsillitis, depression, skin lesions, epiglottis and other ailments. We must remember Washington lived in the 18th century when illness was a default health setting. An accomplished horse rider and a fantastic dancer, Washington was fitter than this list suggests.

In 1789, an influenza epidemic started in New York, the temporary capital of the newly formed nation. Washington escaped the first wave. However, in late spring 1790, during the second wave, he “imprudently” set up a meeting with his advisor, James Madison. Two days later, Washington had difficulty breathing, sharp pains in the side, harsh coughing and blood in his spittle. Flu later combined with pneumonia.

Washington is the only US president not to have lived in the White House. (It was built after his death). When his health seriously deteriorated, a top doctor was smuggled into his house to avoid panic. But the grapevine was strong and people began speculating about his health. Washington’s personal secretary ran the government for a few weeks. In May, Washington took a turn for the better. He remained a president for another seven years, and died in 1799.

In 1790, the new constitution had no provisions for the incapacitation or death of a president. Historians believe Washington’s death in 1790 would have meant the United States dying along with him. The nation was still in its infancy.  

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In 1919, Woodrow Wilson caught the Spanish Flu. He still went for the critical post WWI negotiations to Paris. At the negotiating table, he had a high temperature, labored breathing, was disoriented and suffered hallucinations. His doctor lied telling the press the president had caught a cold from the Paris rains.

The French demanded war reparations, and military buffer zones with Germany. In his delirious state, Wilson accepted demilitarization of Rhineland and agreed to the French occupying it at least for the next fifteen years. The Treaty of Versailles negotiated by Wilson was so harsh and one-sided; it fuelled angry German nationalism, and contributed to the rise of Hitler and the Nazis. Back home, the ill president began campaigning for the League of Nations (predecessor to the UN). In September, he suffered a massive stroke and was paralyzed on the left side. His wife secretly became the de-facto president. Congress rejected the League of Nations. A healthy president might have succeeded in forming the League and avoided another world war.

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During the Second World War, Franklin Roosevelt, Stalin and Churchill were expected to meet to create a strategy to bring peace and freedom to Europe and the world. Stalin was paranoid about flying; he took only one flight in his entire life. He claimed his doctor didn’t allow him to travel to the USA.

Roosevelt, paralyzed with polio (which he always tried to hide), weak with congestive heart trouble, and with blood pressure 260/150 flew 6000 miles to Yalta, a resort in Crimea. In the negotiations Stalin managed to grab parts of Poland and bring chunks of Asia under the Soviet sphere, by promising free and fair democracies in those nations. Roosevelt went home and boasted of achieving global peace. Roosevelt was so weak; he gave the speech sitting down.

It may sound incredible but Stalin was a much bigger liar than Trump. He reneged on all his commitments, installed a Communist government in Warsaw. He accused the USA and UK of making a secret pact with the Nazis. The division of Europe and the Cold War began. Roosevelt died two months after the Yalta conference.

*****

Ravi 

Corona Daily 309: The President in Isolation

In 1863, President Lincoln was diagnosed with smallpox. The White house was converted into a quarantine smallpox hospital. Lincoln’s two private secretaries imposed strict restrictions on visits. Dr Stone vaccinated all White House staff against smallpox. Lincoln famously said: for once in my life as President, I find myself in a position to give everybody something.

Trump is now another USA president with something to give to everyone, but nobody keen to take it. The White House now has over one hundred staff. Add to that his large family, including five children. Somebody took a wise decision to move him to the Walter Reed Army Medical Hospital. Its ward no. 71 has two suites, one for the President and one for the First Lady. But Melania remains at the White House.

Outside Trump’s presidential suite, a team of secret service agents in black suits, striped red ties and sunglasses will keep a vigil. The danger is not about a sniper, but a photographer with a long zoom camera. Trump can’t be seen in anything except in a smart blue suit. Any newspaper would pay a fortune for a ‘Trump in pyjamas’ picture. An oxygen mask or a saline tube would ruin any remaining election chances.

An attendant carrying the nuclear football will stand at the window. The football is a large and heavy briefcase containing the how-to-manual and a card with authentication codes to launch a nuclear attack. This briefcase is carried by military aides-de-camp, who must at all times be within earshot of the president. Just like the secret agents, they are subjected to strict scrutiny before recruitment. If out of sheer boredom Trump decides to launch a missile on Iran or Mexico, he will call this gentleman.

Trump has a daily meeting with the counselor to seek political advice. Trump is consistent - his wives and counselors are usually former models. Unfortunately, the current counselor Hope Hicks is down with the virus, and was possibly the source. In the large suite in the hospital, Trump will miss her presence.

There is also the make-up-team. Just like the royal families, each member of the Trump family has their own makeup personnel. Before Trump leaving the white house, giving a rally speech, starting the debate, the make-up team works on his face and hairdo. They remove any excess hair in his ears and nose. (Because Trump is tall, excess nose hair would look awful to those coming close to him.)  They check the tie-knot is perfect. Trump will miss this team. Their absence is another reason why nobody should take a picture of him.

Another person he will miss is the Twitter assistant. The twitular king is prolific, but he can only post text, even in BOLD. He can retweet on his own. But for the attachments, and to maintain his Twitter account, he has a full time assistant. Research doesn’t disclose who the person is, but it could be a girl in her twenties who was a model before becoming the Twitter assistant. If you see fewer tweets over the next two weeks, that may have little to do with Trump’s health.

Naturally, Trump will not be expected to engage in cooking, cleaning or laundering. People in PPE will bring him cheeseburgers and cokes. Doctors and nurses will monitor him, again wearing PPE. The secret service agents, if they are smart, will make sure nobody carries their smartphones when entering the suite.

In his 74 years of life, Donald Trump will be imprisoned in an isolation cell for the first time. Even those who don’t like the man, can take pity on him.

Ravi 

Corona Daily 310: Something Positive about Donald Trump

 

This morning Donald Trump tested positive. In my article dated 18 June, I had raised the possibility of the virus playing an assassin if power-hungry candidates become reckless during the campaign. Trump is tested daily. As is well known, the cunning covid virus enters the host first, symptoms appear only later. We will need to wait until the next week to understand the gravity of the infection. Trump and Biden are high risk - jointly they have lived for more than 150 years. Trump is obese and information about his medical conditions may be locked up in the same safe where his tax returns are.

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What happens if Trump becomes severely ill?

Trump can invoke section 3 (amendment 25), by sending a written declaration to the Congress appointing Mike Pence as an acting president. When Trump recovers, he can send another letter, and take charge again. Reagan (1985) and junior Bush (2002/2007) invoked this section before their colonoscopy operations.

Section 4 (amendment 25) allows Pence and the cabinet to inform Congress about Trump being incapacitated, physically or mentally. Funnily enough, if invoked because of Trump’s mental disorders, Trump can contest. And the Congress must vote him out by a two-thirds majority. But if Trump is on a ventilator or deeply sedated this section will be invoked, and Pence will become the acting president.

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What happens if Trump dies?

There are four important dates that create different scenarios. (I will refrain from using the word deadline). 3 November/ 14 December/6 January and 20 January.

3 November is the voting date to elect the President, the Senate and the House of Representatives. It is the big day. But the American system is bizarre, people vote directly, but they don’t elect. They send electors from the state (in proportion to the state’s size) to vote for the president.

14 December: is when the electors will vote. By convention, they must vote as directed by the people.

6 January: Congress, the newly elected and not the lame-duck Congress, will count the electoral votes and declare the winner. At this point Trump or Biden would become a president-elect.

20 January: With the inauguration, the president will assume office.

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If Trump were to die before 3 November, the Republican Party National Committee will replace him with another candidate. It doesn’t have to be Mike Pence. (Same with Biden, Democrats will nominate another candidate).

There is no precedent. In 1912, James Sherman, a vice-presidential candidate died six days before the election. His name was simply removed from the ballot. However, his ticket lost the election, requiring no further action.

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If Trump wins, but dies before 14 December, it creates crisis and chaos. Laws of several states compel the electors to vote for the winner, but voting for a dead person is not really fashionable. The electors may agree to replace the dead man with the Vice-president, but they may not. It will likely end up in the courts.

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If Trump wins, but dies between 15 December and 6 January, Congress may refuse to count the votes given to a dead candidate. If the president-elect, House of Representatives and senate belong to Republicans, the party may decide to elevate Pence to the president’s position, but it may not. After all, American people haven’t voted for Pence as a president.

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If Trump wins and dies any time after 6 January, 2021, before or after the inauguration, Mike Pence automatically becomes the president. Lyndon Johnson became one when John Kennedy was assassinated.

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Mike Pence/ Kamala Harris must hope and pray that Trump/ Biden don’t succumb to Covid until 7 January 2021. After that, either Pence or Harris has a good chance of becoming the President without anybody voting for them as such.

Ravi

Corona Daily 311: Who Infects Who

 

India is generally associated with numbers that boggle the mind. It has 900 million voters, adds 13-14 million people every year, in ten years it will become the first country with 1.5 billion people. Not surprisingly, the largest contact tracing study ever was conducted in India. Its results were published yesterday. Researchers from American universities worked with the public health officials in two southern Indian states. Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu together have 128 million people, and are among the most affected, or infected, Indian states. The researchers analyzed nearly 85,000 cases and 600,000 of their contacts to understand who infects who.

The study has at least five important takeaways.

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First, the ability of a few to spread the infection widely. The study found that 5% were responsible for 80% of the infections, while 71% didn’t pass the virus to anyone else. The Pareto principle (80/20 rule, e.g. we wear 20% of our clothes 80% of the time, and 80% only 20% of the time) seems to apply to the virus-spreading. Immunity or the lack of it may explain the ability of the person to “take in” the virus. For reasons not known yet, some people have a superior ability to “give away” the virus. If we were to find a way to recognize such super-donors, it may become possible to isolate them to curb a surge.

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Second, deaths in these two states increased with age, as can be expected, but dropped off after 65. This is good news for the 70+ and 80+. The possible reason is India’s life expectancy which is 69. (USA is 79). Remember 69 is the average. Many poor people, or those with little access to health care, die by 65, with or without Covid-19. Those Indians who survive beyond 70 are relatively better-off, with access to India’s best doctors and hospitals. That may explain why many elderly Indians are surviving infections. In the two researched states, until 1 August, only 18% of the deaths were among individuals older than 75. (In the USA, 58% of the dead were older than 75).

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Third, among those who died, the time between hospitalization and death was only 5-6 days. (USA 14 days). It suggests patients are brought to the hospitals too late, or due to being overwhelmed, hospitals admit only the most serious cases.

Among the dead, 62% had at least one co-morbid condition (USA 22%). Nearly half of Indian patients had diabetes, and one third had hypertension.

The Death rate was higher among men, a well-known fact. Men accounted for 62% and women 38% of the deaths.

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Fourth, index cases, the initial infectors were mainly men. They passed it on to others younger. It is possible Indian men move around more than women. Also, when the contact tracers call over the phone, it is likely the men talk to them more often than the women.

The elderly passed on the virus to people their own age. Not surprising that people similar in age mix with one another.

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Fifth, children of all ages can get infected and can spread. More than 5300 children in the study had infected 2500 contacts. Again, just like the elderly, children spread the virus to other children of a similar age. Possibly important information for the education minister before reopening schools.

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The research reported that India’s strict countrywide lockdown benefitted in reducing transmission. Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh have better public health. The study must be considered as the best case scenario, before translating the results to another Indian state.

Ravi