Corona Daily 373: Operation Warp Speed

In April 2020, the Trump administration announced project “Operation Warp Speed” that aims to deliver 300 million doses of an FDA-approved Covid-19 vaccine by January 2021. The administration, perhaps a little prematurely, described OWS as one of the greatest scientific and humanitarian accomplishments in history. Trump compared it to the Manhattan project (developing the A-bomb).

The project pours enormous money into select pharma companies for the development, manufacturing and distribution of vaccines. Normally, these are sequential processes, meaning production capacities are built only after a reliable proven or approved product is at hand. Considering the emergency, OWS tries to make these processes parallel. It is accepted that just one or two vaccine candidates will succeed, and a large portion of money invested in development may go waste.

Till today, some $13 billion has been committed. Out of the long list, five companies are the finalists: Moderna, Oxford/AZ, Johnson and Johnson, Merck and Pfizer. Moderna and Oxford have started large-scale trials.

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How excited should we be? If you are an American, you should be more excited. End of June, the USA bought all stocks of Remdesivir (Gilead) until end of September. This drug has shown some positive results. On 7 July, OWS signed a half billion dollar deal with Regeneron, locking its potential reg-cov2 therapy for three months. No other country will be allowed to buy it during that period. The OWS mission of producing 300 million vaccine doses obviously matches with the USA population. Simultaneously, USA is taking steps to withdraw from WHO, an organization that plays a key role in the fair global distribution of vaccines. With the “America first” approach, universal vaccination in rich countries may take priority over high risk populations in poor countries.

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Is OWS political? Of course, it is. Because at the outset, it has refused to consider any candidates from China. Moncef Slaoui, the head of OWS, has been accused of conflict of interest. He was on the Board of Directors of Moderna just before joining OWS. A positive announcement by Moderna, with a dramatic rise in its share price gave him $3 million in one day. He sold his Moderna stock for $12 million. Most OWS candidates had their share prices going through the roof. Stock options of the Vaxart CEO were $4.3 million. A month later, they were worth more than $28 million. Novavax is another company that has not delivered a single vaccine to the market. A New York Times study showed that the executives of these companies sold shares worth $1 billion at super-inflated prices.

The next time you read exciting news about a vaccine progress, please bear in mind a possibility that the news may just be a get-richer-quick scheme of some executives.

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The fastest developed vaccine in medical history, for mumps, took four years. Trump has only 100 days. He has a weapon called the ‘Emergency Use Authorization’ at his disposal. Pressured by him, FDA gave EUA to Hydroxychloroquine on 28 March. After serious cardiac events, and serious side effects, EUA was revoked on 15 June. EUA simply requires it is “reasonable to believe” that the “vaccine may be effective”. Bill Gates has also started several vaccine projects. But Trump can give an EUA, Bill Gates can’t.

My prediction is that some vaccine will get an Emergency use authorization in October. The world, not knowing the difference between an approval and EUA will be overjoyed, markets will go up. Trump may get reelected. Once the election results are out, the authorization can be revoked. After the elections, it doesn’t matter whether the vaccine works or not.

Ravi

Corona Daily 374: A Vaccine Guinea Pig’s Firsthand Experience

Richard Fisher is a science journalist with the BBC. In May, he came across a tweet of an Oxford University philosopher who had enrolled for the vaccine trial. Fisher, his journalistic curiosity aroused, signed up on the website, filled out a questionnaire about his medical history and got an appointment in St George’s Hospital in south London.

On 26 June, a masked hospital attendant holding up a sign “vaccine trial” welcomed him. In the neurology ward, now redone for the Oxford trial, Matthew Snape, a leading scientist made a presentation on a large screen. Snape explained what the volunteers can and can’t do, the science behind the vaccines, possible side-effects, experimental and control groups.

Snape also explained how they took a flu virus from a chimpanzee and genetically altered it to make proteins from the Covid-19 virus.

The volunteers were briefed about the risks, and the theoretical possibility of the vaccine making the effects of the coronavirus worse.

After the video presentation, Fisher was questioned in-depth about his medical history, if he had symptoms of coronavirus. He gave his blood sample, and signed a consent form with various undertakings, e.g. he won’t donate blood in the next twelve months. (A woman, as I wrote yesterday, must undertake not to be pregnant in the next twelve months). One line on the form says: ‘I agree that the samples collected will be considered a gift to Oxford University.’ This made Fisher smile knowing some participants would be asked to give stool samples.

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A week later, on 3 July, Fisher once again appeared in the windowless room at St George’s. Once again, they went through his medical history, then took more blood. Galiza, a pediatric vaccine researcher came in with a vial. Smiling through her mask, she injected the trial vaccine in Fisher’s arm. Neither Fisher nor Galiza knew whether it was the test vaccine ChAdOx1 nCoV-19, or the dummy vaccine. (The trial is using MenACWY vaccine given against meningitis or sepsis as a control vaccine.)

Fisher became part of the 10,000 volunteers who risk encountering the killer virus for the greater good of the world. Apart from the UK, similar large-scale trials are happening in Brazil and South Africa, with USA next on the agenda.

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Seven days later, on 10 July, Fisher needed to rub his tonsils with a cotton bud swab, without touching his teeth or tongue, and then stick the same stick deep up his nose. Once the uncomfortable nasal swab was taken, he sealed it and placed it into a security-sealed box “Biological Substance Category B”. Royal Mail UK has provided those special boxes for home tests. Along with the swab, he also answered a questionnaire about his behavior in the previous week. Did he use public transport? Did he spend more than five hours with anyone from outside his family? etc.

A few days later, he got a text message saying he tested negative.  

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Richard Fisher is required to repeat this routine once every week for at least four months, and visit the hospital regularly for blood tests over the next 12 months.

His firsthand account gives us some idea about the tediousness of the vaccine process. Before developing a level of confidence to give a shot in the arms of a few billion, the world will need lots of data and lots of patience.

Ravi

Corona Daily 375: Human Challenge Trials

The world is excited about vaccines. Optimists, even those not remotely connected to medicine, are predicting a vaccine arrival in the next six months. As of today, 226 candidates are competing, with 195 of them at pre-clinical stage, and only four in phase III. The width and speed of the virus is such that in desperation mankind has agreed to conduct human challenge trials. What are these?

Any drug or vaccine can have its intended effects and adverse effects. Before approving, the authorities must ensure vaccines are capable of preventing a disease, and also safe. A wrong vaccine can harm healthy people. Once a vaccine is developed, it is tested on laboratory mice. A few weeks later, the mice will be deliberately infected. This may be followed by a trial on chimpanzees or other apes. This research can take months, if not years. By that time, Covid-19 may kill a million people.

The world has agreed to a pragmatic compromise. To go ahead with trials on human guinea pigs, without necessarily completing animal trials. AZD 1222 (Oxford/AstraZeneca), the leading candidate, having finished a trial on 1000 people, is now going for a large scale trial with 10000 volunteers each in a few countries. In the 1940s, Americans had conducted mass trials on prisoners. The Nazis’ infamous medical experiments made the civilized world establish rules for human challenge trials. Those participating must participate voluntarily, must be well informed and understand all the risks, and give a written consent. They are also free to leave the trial at any stage.

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Volunteers must commit to do or not do certain things for a long time. Women participants, for example, must undertake not to become pregnant for 12 months. Half of the participants are injected the real vaccine, and half of them a placebo. (Usually some other real vaccine that has nothing to do with Covid-19).  But neither the volunteer nor the researcher knows which is which. For a few weeks, they are monitored for side effects, headache, nausea, fever. Human brain is such a weird thing even a placebo can create an adverse effect.

The next step is to infect them. Fifty percent of them have had the unproven Covid-19 vaccine. If the vaccine is any good, it will work and resist the virus or the volunteer may escape with mild symptoms. If the volunteer was given a placebo, he has no protection other than nature and his luck. In theory, volunteers with a non-working vaccine or a placebo, when infected, can get seriously ill or in a rare case, die. That is why the name Human Challenge.

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With no drugs available, deliberately infecting people for vaccine testing is a complex ethical issue. Fortunately, the novel coronavirus is not lethal against the young. Oxford vaccine trials are restricted to the age group 18-55. (Imagine an ad seeking volunteers for an AIDS/HIV vaccine trial. Would anyone really volunteer for it?) Between 23 April-21 May, 1077 volunteers, with a median age of 35, almost all of them white, took part in Oxford’s earlier phase. There is a long way to go between 1000 participants, and a few billion in the real world. Also at some stage, effectiveness will need to be tested on the vulnerable groups, the old, those with medical conditions, and vulnerable non-whites.

Tomorrow, I will describe the firsthand experience of a British volunteer who participated in the latest Oxford trial.

Ravi

Corona Daily 376: Minimalist Hajj

A very different Hajj pilgrimage begins today.

Last year, 2.5 million Muslims from all over the world attended the five day pilgrimage, an obligation for every spiritual Muslim. Saudi Arabia, which calls itself ‘the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques’, earned $12 billion from it. After oil, Hajj and Umrah (Mecca visits outside Hajj days) are the biggest contributors to the Saudi treasury.

Hajj is allowed only to Muslims. Muslim women under 45 can go only if accompanied by a male relative. Those over 45 must carry a notarized No Objection Certificate from male relatives. Nine months ago, Saudi Arabia had liberalized certain rules. (If the word liberal can be applied in the Saudi context). This year would have been the first Hajj when women were allowed to visit Mecca without a male relative or his legalized consent. Many young Indian Muslim women had registered. They looked forward to that singular opportunity.

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The Hajj pilgrimage, lasting for 5-6 days, is a packed ocean of humanity. A square meter has an estimated nine people during prayers. It’s terribly hot, traditional garments expose men’s upper bodies. There is much skin-to-skin contact. Pilgrims share food; men share razors for shaving heads. Exhaustion and dehydration can lower immunity. It is an ideal breeding ground for viruses and infections. In 1821 and 1865, tens of thousands of Hajj pilgrims had died in cholera epidemics. Umrah is translated as ‘visiting a populated place’.

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Saudi Arabia has decided to make this year’s Hajj minimalist. No Muslim from abroad is allowed. Only 1000 lucky applicants residing in Saudi Arabia will attend. 70% of them are foreign nationals from 160 countries (such as diplomats from the Pakistani embassy). When selecting Saudi citizens, priority was given to health care workers and security staff, particularly those already recovered from Covid-19. Nobody above 65 or with health conditions is allowed.

All 1000 Hajj pilgrims are required to observe a 7-day quarantine at home before travelling to Mecca. They must also test negative. After arrival in Mecca, they will be tested again, and given a GPS bracelet for contact tracing. Face masks are mandatory. Touching or kissing the Kaaba is forbidden. Pilgrims must maintain a distance of five feet during prayers. Access to holy sites at Mina, Muzdalifah and Mount Arafat require a special permit which will be issued very selectively. After the end of the Hajj on 2 August, pilgrims should observe another 7-day quarantine at home. Fines and jail sentences are prescribed for those trying to attend Hajj without a permit. Where sentences are concerned, nobody doubts the seriousness of the Saudi authorities.

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A Kenyan computer engineer, Ahmed Al Haddal, has created an app called ‘Hajplication’, which is a livestream experience. He is also developing an app called iVatican.

Muslim scholars and commentators are not too happy. Pilgrims are meant to suffer (in 40 C heat) the discomfort of travel, wear prescribed clothes, not trim nails, shave their heads, none of which is possible if you are sitting in your air-conditioned living room with your Apple computer. A British professor, Jonathan Wilson, compared it to a virtual swimming experience.

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This week, we will learn how successful the virtual Hajj experience is. In theory, more than a billion Muslims will be able to experience Hajj on their screens if it were to be telecast live.

However, if the livestreaming app is successful, the Saudi prince will make sure it is banned. With falling oil prices, the royal family can’t afford to lose its last source of income.

Ravi

Corona Daily 377: Asimov Now, Part Final

This series on robots cannot be concluded without mentioning Erica – ‘the most beautiful woman in the world’ according to her creator, Hiroshi Ishiguro. Ishiguro is the director of the Intelligent Robotics Laboratory. He studied images of several Miss Universe pageant finalists and created Erica. She is fluent in English and Japanese. In April 2018, she was hired by Nippon TV network as a newsreader. As one of the top 25 announcers on the network’s talent page, she is the only one with “Nil” appearing after her education and blood type.

Erica now gets her biggest break. She will play the lead role in a $70 million Sci-Fi film called “b”. An Android heroine in the celluloid world. Hailed as Hollywood’s first autonomous AI actor, she will play the role of “b”, an artificially intelligent woman, who can enter the body and mind of a human host. In the storyline, a scientist finds a perfect way to replicate human DNA. Once he realizes the dangers Erica may face, he helps her run away from the laboratory.

Erica differs in a major way from the robots we have seen in earlier films. She is not an animated character. She will not be performing based on a remote control run by a human being. The producers want to train her and let her act all by herself based on artificial intelligence.

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That is proving difficult. Matthew Helderman, the producer, tried the Marlon Brando method, whereby the star draws on her own life experience to create the character. Erica has no life experience and no emotional memories. Memorising lines is easy. She will be able to recite the entire film script if needed. But she can’t improvise. When directed, she doesn’t understand why she should say certain lines softly and others loudly. Khoze, another producer, is teaching her dialogue in one session, work on emotions in another session, and character development and body language on another day.

When Ishiguro created her, he didn’t know she would be cast in the leading role in a Hollywood movie. When walking, her air compressor joints make a robot-like movement, not very feminine. The producers have decided to shoot many of her scenes with her sitting down.

Currently three supporting human lead actors are auditioning. Some robots will be in support roles as well. One robot is part of the crew.

Erica’s biggest qualification, of course, is that she is immune to coronavirus.

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In 1970, another Japanese roboticist Masahiro Mori proposed a theory called “the uncanny valley”. The theory says that humans will react positively to a robot that looks and acts like a human – only up to a point. If the robot resembles a human too much, it triggers a sense of revulsion or eeriness.

A few years ago, another robot “Sophia” designed to resemble Audrey Hepburn was described by her maker as an evolving genius machine. In 2017, Saudi Arabia offered Sophia citizenship, making her the first robot with a human passport. Possibly as a result of Mori’s theory, people found her scary and repulsive and she disappeared from the news.

The gimmick of casting Erica for the key role may meet the same fate. Would I want to see this film? No, not at all. This is one area where I wouldn’t like robots to replace us, pandemic or no pandemic.

Ravi

Corona Daily 378: Asimov Now, Part III

China was the first country affected by Covid-19, and the first country to recover successfully. When reopening the economy, China focused on factories with a high level of automation and robots. Cobots are collaborative robots who share tasks and space with humans.

In Dallas, Axis Machining, a metal fabrication company, has eight robots performing machine-tending, sanding, deburring, inspection, laser marking. A couple of supervisors team up with the robots. The pandemic convinced the company that using robots is now cheaper. The use of robots has doubled company productivity with the same headcount. The company spent $85000 per robot, and will recover it in five months.

Another popular cobot by the Danish company Universal Robots, the market leader, costs $35000 and the payback period is 3-4 months. Normally, companies employ temporary workers to deal with the surge in orders. But in Covid times, bringing in new workers and keeping them socially distanced is both risky and less productive. Californian company DCL logistics found that robots led to a 300% increase in productivity and 60% savings in labour costs.

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Some dystopian sci-fi movies show robots taking over control of the world. Is that threat real?

I don’t think so.

Way back in 1992, a factory manager took me around British American Tobacco’s Southampton factory. It was part of my induction. ‘Fifteen years ago,’ the lady manager said with a sigh, ‘this part of the factory had 1500 workers, now we have only six.’

‘How has that affected the productivity?’ I asked.

‘We are now producing 20 times more cigarettes with the six workers.’ She replied.

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Automation is a process that has never stopped. Take the example of an ATM. In the first half of my life, if I needed cash, I had to visit my bank, take a metal token, queue up, and then collect the cash from the human teller. The Automated Teller Machines changed all that. I don’t think even diehard communists would like to abolish ATMs and go back to human cashiers. The emergence of ATMs created many new jobs. Now delivery vans are needed to input cash into ATMs, security guards as escorts, engineers to develop and technical staff to maintain the machines.

We get more worried if a machine looks and talks like a human being. We call them robots. ATMs look different, but they have taken away millions of cashier jobs.  

Why should people do the jobs that machines can do better and safer? Surgeons now routinely use laser precision machines to operate. The role of modern pilots is essentially to supervise and control mechanical systems in the plane. The same goes for driving. A hundred years hence, humans driving cars may be considered primitive. It is unsafe for those who drive and for others. Delivery robots are essentially driverless cars that transport packages. In one of the future articles, I will give details of the project of self-driven electric cars that is expected to put an end to ownership of cars. The pandemic is a godsend for these benign initiatives to be speeded up.

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We should be thankful to robot butchers and robot gutter-cleaners. Whatever jobs machines can do should be delegated to machines. That leaves human beings to invent and progress to jobs that are more developed. The human race has managed that process for centuries.

Philosophically speaking, what is the point of a human life if it must be wasted in working as a robotic slave?

Ravi

Corona Daily 379: Asimov Now, Part II

In Japan, some students didn’t miss their graduation ceremonies. Ohmni Labs’ Newme robots replaced the locked down students. The telepresence robots were draped in academic gowns. Each student appeared via Zoom in the robot’s head, which was a computer tablet, smiled and received the degree from the chancellor. A similar ceremony was held at the Nanjing University in China.

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Talking about education, the Roybi robot designed to teach kids age 3-7 is selling well. Listed as a great invention by Time magazine, Roybi teaches languages, science and math. Powered by Artificial Intelligence, it tailors its lessons to the child’s style of learning. It recognizes the child’s emotions, and accordingly teaches content the child can enjoy the most. The versatile Roybi can tell stories, sing songs, or explain theorems. This cute robot costs $189.

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In Singapore, a robot hound called Yellow Dog (made by Boston Dynamics) is equipped with many cameras and censors. The hound goes around the park warning walkers walking too close to each other, or not wearing masks.

Aibo, Sony’s robot dog can learn to recognize and respond to over 100 different faces. The pet costs $3000 but no maintenance costs thereafter. It is helpful for people who need a companion or have dementia.

By the way, if you are locked down or quarantined, you don’t need a dogwalker any more. A drone, remotely operated by you, can take your (real) dog for long walks.

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An earlier post talks about the awful conditions in the meat processing plants in the USA. Before 6 June, 20400 Covid-19 infections were recorded in 216 plants in 33 states, with 91 workers dying. ‘Tyson foods’ is now investing speedily in “robot butchers”. They can’t yet match the finest human motor skills such as gristle removal and filleting without cutting bone. But more routine tasks like splitting carcasses are easier for the robots. In Europe, the more advanced robots use optical eyes and lasers to sort cuts of meat.

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In the USA, ‘Harvesting Croo Robotics’ has introduced Berry 6 that has 16 robotic heads, and six arms. The arm cameras scan fruit, estimate its 3D location, assess whether it is ready to be picked. Picked berries are assessed for ripeness, defects, and weight and automatically sorted into different chambers. The robot currently takes 20 hours to pick what 30 human workers gather in a day. The robot maker promises the productivity will keep improving.

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In Russia, the city of Perm in Siberia has a woman humanoid with long blond hair and brown eyes. The company ‘Promobot’ machine-analyzed thousands of Russian female faces to create an average looking female clerk. She wears a white shirt and brown waistcoat and can recreate more than 600 facial expressions by moving eyes, eyebrows, lips and face muscles. She is connected to a scanner and printer and to the document database. She asks and answers generic questions, verifies the database and issues certificates about criminal records, drug use or other commonly needed documents.

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In August, a robot resembling a Kangaroo will start stacking sandwiches, drinks and ready meals at Japanese convenience stores. Telexistence, the maker, felt Japanese customers are put off by robots that look like humans. Following the trial, the chain Family Mart plans to roll out the robots to twenty Tokyo stores.

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Tomorrow I will talk about cobots, and discuss the long term risks of robots replacing human beings.

Ravi

Corona Daily 380: Asimov Now

They don’t cough or sneeze, shake hands or hug, get sick or tired, form trade unions, or ask for overtime. The robots are here. The robot revolution has started and is unlikely to stop post-pandemic.

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China’s Foodom Tianjiang Kingdom is a new robot restaurant complex where both chefs and waiters are robots. It claims to be the world’s first restaurant where customers have no human contact. Once customers place orders on their smartphones, the chef gets activated. One arm is engaged in stir-frying, the other adds spices. (Like Indian gods, robots can have several arms). The dish, with its precise proportion of ingredients, is ready in minutes. The chef doesn’t have the unhygienic practice of tasting what he has prepared. Chefs can easily flip burgers, bake bread, make salads. The waiter robot then delivers food to the customer’s table. An increasingly popular place, Foodom served more than 10,000 customers on May Day holiday.

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Fairfax city in the USA is using small cube-shaped robots that mechanically walk on the sidewalks and streets. Starship technologies, their creator, operates a fleet of delivery robots. They deliver from restaurants and grocery stores. Business boomed after they began delivering alcohol. Currently Starship robots serve 180,000 customers in five countries.

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India, even India, with its 1.4 billion population is not spared. Milagrow, an Indian robot maker, has launched four humanoid robots.

RoboDiCaprio is the Guest Relations Robot, 155 cm tall, recognizes masked faces. (Many robots in the world are now retrained to use voice recognition). It interacts with guests entering hotels, and serves their basic needs at the reception counter.

RoboJulia, also 155 cm tall, is capable of serving in restaurants. She explains the menu, takes orders, and brings food to the tables. Unlike a human, she can serve food to three tables at once.

RoboNano is a personal companion, who can work in corporate offices as well as help individuals. He is equipped with Amazon’s Alexa. He can order your pizza online, book your Uber, track your fitness stats, operate your TV, and play the music of your choice.

Roboelf is the healthcare robot. He is already deployed at hospitals in Delhi and Mumbai. 92 cm tall, he moves at a speed of 3 km/hour but with his censors won’t ever collide with anyone. He costs $8000.

All four robot types can work non-stop for 12 hours on a single charge. Then it takes four hours to recharge them. (Just like humans requiring eight hour sleep).

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Humanoid robots are used in a big way to disinfect floors, check temperatures. In Denmark, robots are taking swab tests, without wearing PPE. As a result, since June, Denmark is the world leader in the number of tests per 1000 people. In UK’s Derby, UV-C emitting robots are disinfecting wards in a hospital in minutes. The hospital is so happy they would want to use them forever. In the coronavirus battle, robots are playing a major role in the health care industry.

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At a baseball game in Fukuoka, Japan, Softbank’s humanoid robots called ‘Pepper’ occupied the stadium stands. With incredible timing, the “fans” danced, screamed, cheered the players. They performed the choreographed dance that Softbank Hawks fans usually do.

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The revolution is pervasive. Stay tuned for more robot news tomorrow.

Ravi   

Corona Daily 381: Cuddle Puddles

Since 2004, when two relationship coaches founded a Cuddle Party in New York, professional cuddlers and cuddling organizations have been doing good business. Cuddle parties also known as cuddle puddles or snuggle parties have girls and guys cuddling together for extended times. Usually written consent is essential before a session starts. Everyone must be fully clothed. No sexual touching is allowed. (There are other parties and clubs for that).

Cuddling allows our bodies to release a hormone called oxytocin. That in turn helps reduce blood pressure. In the absence of physical contact, people may experience loneliness, depression, anxiety disorders and stress.

Social distancing is the enemy of cuddling. Lockdowns have presumably locked down the oxytocin within us, raising our blood pressure. Cuddle parties have stopped. Now professional cuddlers are trying to arrange virtual cuddling sessions. Cuddle Sanctuary will run a virtual cuddling workshop on 30 July. Its certified professional cuddlers normally charge $80- $100 per hour for one-on-one cuddle sessions. Now they are training their clients to simulate an embrace on Zoom. Franzblau, Cuddle Sanctuary’s founder, asks clients to lie on their side with one arm stretched under their head and the other near torso. In that position, clients are requested to recall a pleasant cuddle from the past. Some cuddlers are suggesting an eye-to-eye contact on the screen. If done deeply, the eye cuddle may create an emotional togetherness to a level where oxytocin is released.

The benefits of virtual cuddling are unknown, but Cuddle up to me, Cuddlist, Lovedome, Cuddleparty are trying to make the most by charging clients in these pandemic times.  

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In Israel, the Apollonia national park has advised people to cuddle trees. Trees after all are living organisms. The park now arranges daily tours for tree-huggers, giving the word a new positive meaning.

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A group of psychotherapists conducted a study in June to find out whether sleeping in a cuddled state has any benefits. They took a dozen couples, and asked them to sleep together for a few nights, and alone for a few. Both times, through attached censors, they were subjected to polysomnography. The study found that co-sleeping allowed 10% more REM (rapid eye movement) sleep. REM is the part of our sleep where we dream. Sharing a bed improves sleep for both partners, according to the study.

My one concern with the study is that all selected couples were in an age group 18-29. What happens to older couples? I remember reading somewhere that in Buckingham palace nobody shares a bed. They visit the room of their spouse when required, but return to their own room to sleep. I wonder if Prince Charles has any problems with his REM sleep.

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One practical and useful invention of the pandemic is the Cuddle Curtains. They are essentially plastic sheets with armholes. Usually made from shower curtains, the lockdown-friendly cuddle curtains are fast gaining popularity in Europe. Particularly in nursing homes. A British plasterer Anthony Cauvin uploaded a clip showing him hugging his grandmother on Youtube.  A social media sensation, the touching video got more than eleven million views in the first week.

Ravi 

Corona Daily 382: White Flags

In August 1998, Russia was hit with its worst financial crisis. Banks became bankrupt. Inflation was a record 84%. Pensioners could buy one loaf of bread and two liters of milk with their monthly pension. I lived and worked in Moscow then. My house was only a couple of miles from the Red Square. I often took evening walks to the Kremlin and back. Once I was returning via Bolshaya Nikitskaya. It was cold and dark as it generally is during autumn.

On that relatively empty street, I saw a row of young Russian women standing. Probably in their twenties, some even underage, they stood next to each other. The display of white Russian women was half a mile long. As I learnt the going rate was $10, because the supply far exceeded the demand. Most had arrived from neighbouring suburbs or small towns, many from decent families. Lots of them would not dream of doing anything similar before the financial crisis.

That long line of young Russian women is a flashbulb memory I cannot forget. It made me understand what hunger means. It can destroy human dignity. It can make a woman solicit clients on the street for ten dollars.

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In Guatemala, for the past few months, people stand on the streets waving white flags to denote they are hungry. Passing vehicles or pedestrians can offer food or money. With 65% population in poverty, the poor have neither savings nor social security. The emergency is colour coded by flags. White is hunger, red for medicine, and black/yellow/blue signal a woman, child or elderly person in danger of violence.

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Chronic hunger is defined as going to bed hungry. (Citizens of many rich nations have a reverse problem). 821 million in the world are chronically hungry. 265 million faring worse are on the brink of starvation. If not addressed urgently, the hunger crisis generated by the pandemic may result in 12,000 people dying of hunger every day. That is twice the number of people dying of Covid-19. United Nation’s goal of eradicating hunger by 2030 is in serious danger. UN has requested $10.3 billion to fight pandemic hunger.

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UN proposal for global ceasefire during pandemic was wilfully vetoed by USA. In the world’s hot spots, including Yemen, Afghanistan, Syria and South Sudan, the food crisis is aggravated by border and supply route closures. In Yemen, people are surviving on bread and tea. Unable to access even potatoes, they are scared of the food prices, not the virus. These four countries along with Congo, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Sudan, Nigeria and Haiti have the worst hunger crisis. Their combined population is 135 million.

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Many of us are exposed to media owned by USA or Western Europe. We look at their news, their stock markets. Don’t get fooled by those numbers. USA, EU and UK have given unprecedented aid to their citizens and companies. That creates an illusion of life returning to normal. But 86% of the global population lives outside of North America and EU/UK. Life can be very different there.

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Even in the USA, a staggering 43 million now receive food stamps. If the current $600 a week aid is not extended beyond July, another 20 million will join the queues for food. India has wisely announced free wheat, rice and pulses to 800 million till November-end.

Throughout the pandemic, the world must focus on providing free food to as many people as possible. Making people beg, or making women sell their bodies for food is inhuman. 

Ravi

Corona Daily 383: Should Schools Open or Not?

Currently, the raging debate is whether to reopen schools. Yesterday, parents and teachers jointly sued the Florida governor over the order to reopen Florida schools. England has announced every school will open on 1 September. At present, 107 countries have country-wide closure of all schools and colleges. More than a billion students are affected.

Much is written about distance learning, and the unequal access to it. The mental health of children stuck at home for months. Cancellations of exams and fear of missing an academic year. The plight of special or disabled children. Domestic violence. In poor countries, children missing free meals at schools.  

The politicians debating this issue rarely have children in mind.

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Politicians are worried about the economy. About GDP numbers, houses and cars sold, unemployment rate. For the economy to work, factories and offices must function smoothly. Transport must run. For workers to report to work, someone must look after their young children. In developed nations, the family size is small. Sometimes fathers drop the kids to school on the way to work; mothers pick them up on the way back. This arrangement works very well in normal times.

Traditionally, there are more women in nursing jobs than men. As a result, 70% of health care workers are generally women, many of them mothers. With schools shut, doctors and nurses have been unable to report to work. This was the key reason behind Sweden’s risky gambit of keeping the country open. It paid a heavy price.

More than education, it is child care that is the major political/economy issue. Not everyone can work from home. Even those who can are developing children fatigue. They are tasked with looking after children 24 hours, in some cases giving them home education. One American woman was fired because her kids were making too much noise during her business calls.

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There appears to be a consensus that the virus risk for children is low. But their ability to transmit the disease is being investigated.

In a smaller German study, 1500 children (age 14-18) and teachers from 13 schools were tested. Out of 2000, only 12 had antibodies.

South Korea this week published an important large scale study. It covered 65000 people in total. It concluded that children between 10 and 19 can spread the disease just like any adult.

England and America talk of sending the entire class or school into home quarantine if a certain percentage falls sick.  In such cases, what are the parents supposed to do? Take leave from their work? Run the risk of catching the infection from their own child?

Denmark and Norway are the only two countries that have somewhat successfully reopened schools. Israel opened and shut them again.

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Several ideas are floating around. One suggests opening up safe centers for online learning. These can be opened in empty stadiums or wedding halls. Students go there with a laptop to take online lessons, allowing parents to go to work. Meals are provided for. Teachers are not necessary, just some facilitators helping the students with seating and Wifi.

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The suggestion by the US public health seems the most sensible. In your locality (not country), if the positive test rate is 5% or below, open the schools. It means the average infection rate among those tested should not exceed 5%. Florida’s is 20%. If this standard is applied, most big cities in India and the USA should not open schools yet, no matter what anybody thinks.

Ravi