Pending on 31st December

You can’t imagine the number of photographs we have at our house. The oldest, I think, is a group photo that features my great-great-grandparents. In effect, we have photos taken over 100 years or so. And they are all over the place. What I want to do is to systematically organise them. Buy albums of the same size, the modern ones you know where it’s easy to insert pictures without dirtying your hands – arrange them either yearwise or think of some themes. Birthdays, Ganesh festivals, our trips et cetera. Label each of the albums and number them. I can imagine how nice they’ll look ranging from number one to say two hundred – all standing like army soldiers in the showcase. I want to do this. It’s simply a matter of finding time. In fact, I would love to scan them as well. Maybe not all – but certainly the oldest ones. The yellowing ones. It’s such a wonderful gift of technology. It’ll take only a few seconds to convert to electrons the picture of my great-great-grandparents. Next Sunday, after lunch I must try to do that.

 

Same Sunday I want to write down all the numbers in my cell phone. My cousin had his phone stolen last week. It reminded me I’d planned to do this for a long time. If my phone is stolen god forbid I’ll lose some of my friends for ever. I want to note down all the numbers, and yes I want to delete all unnecessary messages. I think my box is full. That should be easy. I can do it when sitting in a traffic jam. But noting down the numbers somewhere is a priority. Someone said you can transfer them directly to your computer. Yes I remember that’s the reason why I postponed writing them down. But I need to find out which cable to use. And how. I have no idea how to do it myself.

 

My cell phone and our television’s remote control look very similar. And they both keep getting misplaced inside the house. No problem if I can’t find the cell phone. I simply go to my landline, and call myself on mobile. I know it sounds silly, and I must be the only person in the world to call myself from one phone to another. It’s such a pleasure to anticipate the familiar ringing from some corner of the house. Normally the mobile is hidden under a newspaper or my wife’s purse or something like that. Once, to my embarrassment, I found it in my trouser pocket. (Yes, I was wearing those trousers). Finding the remote control is more painful. We must search and find it because the knobs on television are no longer working. (If we press the volume up, it goes down.) Remote control is the only thing that keeps our TV going. Which reminds me I have to change its batteries. They are smaller in size. Every time the remote becomes dysfunctional, I take each battery out and rub its head on my shirt - vigorously. You will be surprised how well batteries get charged by rubbing them on a cotton shirt. I’m afraid one day they won’t respond to my shirt. I’ll then change them.

 

It’s strange how you find things – when you are not looking for them. The other day I was searching for the remote control and I found the manual for my digital camera. This manual I’ve been searching for more than a year now. Since the time I bought my Sony digital. My brother tells me I don’t use more than 5% of the functionality. That may be true. For more than a year, I’ve kept the initial setting. I must say I do manage to get the pictures. I take them only in the daylight. That’s why I wanted to read the manual, understand all the different signs (P, S, A, M, setup, AE lock, Ω, SCN, ∆… so many of them). I must read the manual to start using my camera properly. I tried once or twice to press the Menu. Whenever I press the menu, what was working also stops working – be it the digital camera, remote control or computer.    

 

Talking about the computer, I must call a computer doctor. Every time I open my computer, there is this message flashing – your system may be at risk. This copy of windows did not pass the genuine validation. I don’t want that message. It keeps appearing every few minutes. What’s the point in telling me what I already know? I keep deleting it. I want the computer doctor to clean up my computer; I think it has far more temporary files than permanent. I wonder if he can help me unblock my blog as well. That is another embarrassing thing – like finding the cell phone in my trouser pocket. I had a blog, and I wrote on it on and off. I came back from a two week trip and tried to log in. I couldn’t remember the password. I have so many logins and passwords now – and they are all fairly similar to one another. I haven’t written them anywhere, because you’re not supposed to write down passwords. Now my own blog has got blocked and I don’t know what to do.

 

Talking of passwords reminds me of the bank matters. The three-digit security code at the back of my credit card is apparently a huge risk. I’m told waiters note that number and start using your card in the internet. I don’t know if I can scratch the three digits off. If I do, I’ll have to remember the number, because I can’t write it down anywhere. And remember it for each of my credit cards. Currently I pay my restaurant bills by cash – until I find a solution. There is the HDFC bank matter to be settled as well. The bank sent me a card without my asking for it– must be six or seven years ago. I never used it. But in the first year, they still charged some amount. And now each year I get a bill with 18% added. This year it’s become a sizeable amount. I write to the bank every year denying all this, cursing the manager and the bill keeps mounting. That’s one thing I must sort out-urgently.

 

The other urgent item is the dentist. I haven’t been to the dentist for, I think, more than a year now. I read somewhere you should go every six months. But it doesn’t happen if nothing happens. Now, though, I feel something is wrong in the upper left corner, I hope it’s not a cavity. It’s not hurting or anything – just a funny feeling when I eat on the left side. I must take an appointment urgently. For the last four months I’ve been eating exclusively on the right side of my mouth.

 

If I get an appointment this week, I could also go to the car mechanic next to the clinic. Both the back doors have child locks, even when we don’t want them. (My daughter sits in the front). The other day, I wanted to escape from a wedding and go to the gym. I’d decided to change to the gym clothes in the car. I changed at the back side of my car, and then couldn’t get out. Somehow I squeezed myself over the top of the gearbox to fall in the driver seat, but my back is still hurting. I must get the child locks unlocked.

 

Dentist. Car mechanic. Plumber. I must not forget. They’re all located one after the other. For months now, the tub in the bathroom is leaking. I can’t see where the leak is. But it must be fixed. Of course, tub bath is out of question. But I’ve found an angle. If I take shower from that angle, the water doesn’t leak. I don’t know what the connection is. This is only a temporary solution. I must call the plumber to get the leak fixed.

 

These are small matters, and given time most of them will get sorted out quickly. I’ve now made a file in my computer where I note the pending item, and write a deadline by which it must be resolved. Some are pretty minor. Like buying a pen stand. I’ve decided I must have a pen stand next to my land line. Or maybe hang a pen to a string next to the phone. Alternatively I can buy some twenty cheap pens and keep them in the drawer below the phone. And a notepad next to it.

 

In the computer file, everything I have mentioned here has a deadline of 31^st December. But today is 31^st December. And I’m busy. I’ve to attend a party this evening. I’m afraid the new deadline will have to be the end of January.

 

Ravi 

The Ethics of Nuclear Bombing

My rambling this week, and a genuine rambling it is, is based on random thoughts generated while doing research for the Hiroshima/Nagasaki article last week.

Quotes, snippets and Bhagvad Gita

Before boarding the plane leaving on a mission to bomb Hiroshima, Dick Nelson, a 24 year old kid then, an old man now, recalls:

“You knew it was big, you just didn’t want to mess anything up… When we were in the air somebody said… this bomb costs as much as an aircraft carrier…well … then you really get the monkey on your back.”

Van Kirk, another crew member, also 24 at that time, remembers the late-night scene just before departure. Spotlights had lit the aircraft up. Van Kirk compares the atmosphere to a Hollywood premier. Dick Nelson thinks of a supermarket opening,

“Klieg lights and all kinds of photographers… you’re almost embarrassed.”

The glorious event in America’s history needed to be documented for posterity.

The most famous photo is that of a grinning Paul Tibbets, the pilot of the plane that dropped the Hiroshima bomb. Just before departure, he is seen waving, delight on his face, to the night-time crowd. Tibbets had named his plane “Enola Gay”, his mother’s maiden name. This was his way of honouring her.

Bernard Waldman, a physician, was part of the crew with the task of taking live photographs of the historic explosion. The Hiroshima mushroom cloud pictures we see today were taken by his Pentax camera that could take 7000 frames per second.

Robert Oppenheimer, father of the atomic bomb, and a philosophy scholar; on hearing the Hiroshima bombing described his feelings by recalling a verse from Bhagvad Gita:

“Now I am become Death, the destroyer of worlds.”

[Bhagvad Gita, chapter 11, verse 32]

It’s said Oppenheimer had quoted another verse in regard to the explosion itself:

If the radiance of a thousand suns were to

Burst forth at once in the sky, that would

Be like the splendour of the Mighty One.”

[Bhagvad Gita, Chapter 11, verse 12]

The prophetic Bhagvad Gita has it all. In Mahabharata, the Indian epic probably five thousand years old; the two armies of warring cousins are ready to begin the battle. Arjuna, a master archer, one of the central heroes of the epic, a conscientious man; suddenly (in chapter 11) develops moral doubts about the whole exercise. He wants to put the weapons down to stop the potential slaughter. His chariot is driven by God Himself. Lord Krishna, his charioteer and advisor, boosts his morale by doing two things. Krishna first reveals his divine form to Arjuna. (Form comparable to thousand suns bursting in the sky at once. See verse above).  Secondly, he explains to Arjuna his duty in the battlefield. “I am become Death, the destroyer of worlds. Whether you kill them or not, they’re all going to perish one day. Remember, only bodies can be killed, the souls are immortal. So please, dear Arjuna, do your duty without worrying about the consequences.”

[Nothing much seemed to have changed in 5000 years since the Bhagvad Gita. The civilians in Hiroshima, and later Nagasaki, were going to die one day anyway. And only their bodies got radiated and pulverised. The souls of the Japanese – like those of other humans – are immortal.]

And finally, President Truman ordering no more nuclear attacks without his explicit approval. He said he was tired of killing, particularly all those kids.

***

The Ethics of killing Civilians with A-bombs

In school, I remember some teacher telling us about the pilot who bombed Hiroshima feeling remorse and committing suicide later. That is patently untrue. Both pilots repeatedly said how proud they were of their patriotic heroic actions. (Sweeney, the Nagasaki pilot died in 2004; and Tibbets, the Hiroshima pilot, is 91 and alive).

Which brings me to the question of ethics of atomic bombing. For most Americans involved in the creation and use of a-bombs, it was not an ethical issue at all. I think I understand their psychology.

In WWII, the professional warriors were engaged in destroying the enemy. Allies wished to kill as many Japanese, civilians and combatants alike, as possible.  Killing them one by one with 200 pound bombs was a time-consuming activity. It also risked American lives.  The A-bomb was 200,000 times more powerful. It was simply a far more efficient weapon. It destroyed in few seconds what normally took months. So the issue was not moral or spiritual, it was one of economics and cost of production.

My personal view is that nuclear bombing is as ethical or unethical as ordinary bombing, or use of a handgun. Only the scale is different. Human race, as it progresses, strives to benefit from economies of scale. Technological inventions make this feasible. I can send this essay to 100 readers worldwide through a click. My grandfather would have spent a year to achieve similar results. The same with nuclear weapons. They are more efficient, and offer better value and quicker results for materials and labour expended.

The second moral issue is that of killing civilians. Again, in modern times, I personally don’t differentiate between killing of civilians and military. The combat is no longer face-to-face with primitive weapons. Deception and surprise attacks are a norm of the 21^st century warfare. Moreover, many uniformed combatants are conscripted (drafted) against their wishes. Russian kids, unwilling and untrained, sent to die in Chechnya are a good example. For me, in a surprise attack, killing of a civilian or of a man in uniform is ethically equal. If you don’t agree with me, please compare the 11^th September attacks on Pentagon and the World Trade Center. Was killing of the military personnel at Pentagon less unethical than killing the civilians in the World Trade Center?

Uniform by itself does not make the action of killing ethical. 

For Americans in the Second World War, atom bomb was not a moral problem. Neither it is, I suspect, for the present American government.  In Afghanistan and Iraq, nuclear weapons are not used, only because they are not necessary. There is no need to kill a million Iraqis for controlling oil in Iraq. (On the contrary, nuclear explosion may endanger the oil reservoirs.)  

At least 50,000 Iraqi civilians are confirmed killed to-date, for a loss of 2811 Americans and 120 British, which though not as efficient as the 911 ratio (on 9-11, each suicide bomber took 150 lives of the enemy) is fairly decent at about 17:1. (Vietnam was about 40 Vietnamese corpses for each American corpse.)  For expediency, I will call it the Corpse ratio. Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombing had produced the best corpse ratios in the history of warfare.  If you ignore the small number of unfortunate Americans stationed there, the two bombs killed more than 200,000 enemy bodies without losing a single of their own.

***

A Million to One Ratio

These days, imperialism is rarely a declared motive for a war. In recent wars, after a few years of fighting, no-one understands or remembers the war objectives any more (Americans in Vietnam, Russians in Afghanistan). If you ask an American or a British soldier in Iraq today what exactly he is fighting for, improving the corpse ratio is the only rational answer he could come up with. If we accept ratio analysis as the basis for war, we can analyze the following three situations of a nuclear attack:

(a) A Nuclear State against a Nuclear State

(b) A Nuclear State against a Non-Nuclear State

(c) Terrorists with nuclear weapons against any State

In the first scenario, say America striking China, they’ll have an excellent corpse ratio for a short time. Until China strikes back. The ratio will keep fluctuating with each strike. Because of China’s population, America will be in a favourable position. However, when both countries are obliterated, the war would have produced at best 4:1, too low a ratio to be acceptable. Owing to the deterrent nature of the mutually iterative operation, one nuclear State striking another is unlikely.

In the second scenario, the Hiroshima/Nagasaki scenario; countries like America could use a-bombs or Hydrogen bombs if a particular situation warrants terrorising a country into submission. N-programmes such as the ones developed by North Korea and planned by Iran could trigger such a threat. However, as the examples of Afghanistan and Iraq have shown, conventional weapons are strong enough to achieve the objectives. This chess board contains material so unequal on two sides, that the game is not interesting. This scenario, as things stand today, is also unlikely.

Terrorists using the nuclear weapons is the most likely scenario. Human casualties are most important to terrorists. Corpse ratio most relevant for them. Even at the 9-11 ratio, Al Qaida would need 2 million suicide bombers to expunge American population. A nuclear weapon, on the other hand, could achieve an impressive million to one ratio.

***

Population Density

Any weapon, including nuclear bombs, targets an area, not people. The stronger weapons destroy more square miles. People just happen to be part of that area. Hence, population densities become important in a war game. Some readers (you can guess from where) have asked me why I keep harping on about Manhattan being a high-risk proposition. The answer is its density. Manhattan has a density of 66,950 people per sq. mile compared to say Los Angeles (8,190). Terrorists always want value for money. Blowing the weapon in Manhattan makes eight times more sense than in Los Angeles. Then again, Manhattan or Central London for that matter, being working places, the threat enhances dramatically during working hours. I can say with certainty no major terrorist attack will happen there in the night-time or on a Sunday. (Note 1: Hiroshima was bombed on Monday, Nagasaki on Thursday, and 9/11 happened on Tuesday. All three acts took place during office hours).

(Note 2: If the USA wanted to destroy the military infrastructure in Japan as claimed, the ethical route was to (a) warn first; (b) allow Hiroshima, Nagasaki to be evacuated and then (c) bomb them. Unfortunately; Americans knew that destruction, without human casualties, does not have the same psychological impact.)  

***

Can the Terrorists get their hands on it?

The nuclear virus exists. In several forms. With the collapse of the Soviet Union, three new nuclear states had emerged in a day: Ukraine, the third biggest nuclear power after US and Russia; Belarus, no.4 and Kazakhstan, no.8. Allegedly, all three are now denuclearised. Not without creating a black market for spare parts and technical know-how. Fifteen years after the Soviet demise, Americans are still doing book-keeping; trying to reconcile the missing inventory. You also have the Soviet scientists, their brains still functioning. Not all of them are taken good care of by the societies they live in. As the example of Pakistani Dr Abdul Qadeer Khan showed, smuggling of know-how or parts is as dangerous as smuggling of actual weapons. 

A palm-sized i-pod today easily contains 2000 songs. Like laptops, nuclear weapons keep increasing in power and reducing in size. Eventually, the suitcase n-bomb in the James Bond films must become reality.

http://lugar.senate.gov/reports/NPSurvey.pdf  is a survey collating opinions of 85 non-proliferation and security experts. It says the possibility is real and increasing every year. The risk of nuclear attack in the next 10 years is estimated to be 29.2%. (That of a Radiological attack 40%). A majority of the group designated a black market purchase as the most likely method by which terrorists could obtain the weapons or fissile materials.

http://www.icrc.org/Web/eng/siteeng0.nsf/htmlall/review-859-p497/$File/irrc_859_Egger_Wirz.pdf

This link from a scientific year-old report is benign. Trusting it will make you feel comfortable. The report gives in detail why manufacture of a nuclear weapon or use of a stolen one by terrorists is improbable. It, however, concurs with the earlier link that risk of radiological terrorism is high.

Nuclear explosion: Manhattan.

http://www.atomicarchive.com/Example/Example1.shtml

This link offers a wonderful, if wonderful is a word I could use, simulation of terrorists detonating a nuclear bomb in the heart of Manhattan. The nine slides give a ball-by-ball commentary on what happens in the few minutes after the explosion.  20 sq. miles of property get destroyed; 800,000 killed and 900,000 injured.

For comparison, I attach another example, this one of a nuclear accident near San Francisco.

 http://www.atomicarchive.com/Example/SF_Example1.shtml

Due to lower density; though 105 sq. miles of property get destroyed, only 224,000 are killed and 175,000 injured.

***

PNAC: Launch of World War III

The United States of America had two options.

One option was to concentrate on economics and material prosperity of America, non-aggression towards others, non-interference in the running of other sovereign nations.

The second option was the one they have chosen. Of starting World War III.

In 1998, Usama Bin Laden issued a fatwa declaring war against America. Few people know America had declared their desire for war a year before, on 3 June 1997 – through the “Project of the New American Century” (PNAC). (http://www.newamericancentury.org/). The project signatories attempt to make a case for the global dominance by America and aim to rally support for it. They believe America has a vital role in maintaining security and peace in Europe, Asia and the Middle East. They want America to create an international order – friendly to American security, American prosperity and American principles.

Signatories include some familiar names: Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfield, Jeb Bush, Paul Wolfowitz and John Bolton.

Careful analysis of the vocabulary used by modern American rulers shows how the current war is cleverly juxtaposed with the World War II. I’ll give here only two examples that are widely known.

On and after 11^th September 2001, the term “Ground Zero” was extensively used. The current generation is unlikely to know its etymology. The expression was used first in 1946 by New York Times in connection with the Hiroshima bombing. Oxford Dictionary explains: “Ground Zero is that part of the ground situated immediately under an exploding bomb, especially an atomic one.”

America calls its coalition partners “Allies”, again a WW terminology. The World War II was fought between Allies and the Axis powers. The Axis of evil then was: Germany, Japan and Italy. Bush has contemporarised the term using replacements: Iraq, Iran and North Korea.

America has subtly begun the third World War. God bless America, and may they win the war against terror. I’m not a technical expert to calculate the probability of terrorists acquiring or blowing a nuclear bomb. But my analysis confirms to me that once it is technically possible, the political probability of it happening is high. Once America has declared a “War on Terror”, its opponent - “Terror” - is forced to think of counter-moves all the time.

In this World War III, the Mighty One may come from the wrong end.

Ravi

How are Targets Selected for Atomic Bombing?

Every few months we read about some psychopath in America going on a murder spree before killing himself.  The victims are random. They simply happen to be at the ill-fated place at the time of massacre. Sometimes the venue of the multiple-murders is spontaneously decided as well.

Professional terrorists, on the other hand, give considerable thought to the targets they plan to hit. The venue selection is an outcome of ruthless logic.

This week’s diary is a historical account of how, and why, Hiroshima and Nagasaki came to be the targets for the only two atomic weapons ever used.

***

Einstein letter gets the Atomic ball rolling

The atomic history begins with a letter dated 2 August 1939 by Albert Einstein to Franklin Roosevelt, the American president.

It’s often believed scientists invent for the sake of science, and then others – politicians or businessmen – abuse the inventions. Alternatively, politicians set an agenda (for example, sending man on the moon), and ask the scientific community to work on the brief. With atomic bombs, neither was the case. A renowned scientist, representing a group of refugee scientists, took the initiative and approached a politician. Einstein the pacifist urged Roosevelt to create a structure of administrators and physicists working together on nuclear chain reactions. Einstein believed Germany may reach there before, and wanted United States to develop the weapon for defence. (As a Jew, he was blacklisted in Germany.) Within less than a month, on 1 September 1939, Germany invaded Poland to officially start the Second World War.

As a response to Einstein’s letter, a Uranium committee with a budget of six thousand dollars was formed in October 1939.  The politicians may have confused the smallness of atom as a substance and the size of budget required to make it react. Anyway, the Uranium committee got the atomic ball rolling.

***

The Manhattan project

Progress of the World War II and news of nuclear research from Europe may have convinced Roosevelt of the urgency and scale required.  The project – later named the “Manhattan Project”, employing 130,000 people and with a budget of two billion dollars – held its first meeting on 6 Dec. 1941. By a spooky historical coincidence, on the following day, Japanese attacked Pearl Harbour, killing 2500 Americans. On 8 Dec. 1941 America declared war on Japan. The massive rallying of the American population behind the President, the enormous public hatred towards the enemy, and the overall emotional aftermath of Pearl Harbour were comparable to another surprise attack on America that was to take place sixty years later. Pearl Harbour united the divided nation.

Two men in their prime were key in the Manhattan project structure. General Leslie Groves, in his forties, was its military head and the overall project leader. His drive and energy, military experience, organisational ability and unwavering confidence gained for the project the speed and support it required. Robert Oppenheimer was the scientific director, who later came to be known as the ‘father of the atomic bomb’. Born to wealthy Jew German immigrants, Oppenheimer was one of the most brilliant physicists in the country. In his late thirties at the time of appointment, he had varied interests outside physics. Philosophy, poetry and religion interested him. At Berkley, he had learnt Sanskrit and read some Hindu scriptures in original.

The scientific process is, unfortunately, very lengthy. More so, when it must be carried out in secret. It was only three years later that Groves and Oppenheimer began feeling optimistic they had succeeded in developing earth’s loudest gadgets.

***

A tumultuous month

In April, 1945 all of a sudden things began to happen. The long serving Roosevelt died on April 12. Mussolini was killed on April 28. Hitler committed suicide on May 1. In three weeks, three major war powers had lost their heads.  On May 7, Germany surrendered officially, and the war in Europe ended. Harry Truman, the vice-president, succeeded Roosevelt as the President of the United States. Both Truman and Roosevelt belonged to the Democratic Party. Curiously, Truman – until he became America’s President – was not made aware of the Manhattan project.

You have here a 61-year old man who on becoming the President is told his country has secretly developed, after toiling for over three years, miraculous toys.

We don’t know if the toys work unless we use them. Could you, Mr President, please sanction urgently their use? Before it’s too late?

Truman must have been of a decisive nature. He quickly chose to throw the A- bombs on Japan. The decision was taken in less than a month since his becoming America’s president. It was taken in less than a month since his learning the secret. Not known if Roosevelt would have taken such a decision, but that was irrelevant. Roosevelt was dead. Einstein’s letter to him had recommended creating defence against Nazi Germany. The Germans had surrendered and by now it was confirmed they didn’t have atomic bombs. The war in Europe was over. Testing the new toys on Japan was the best available option. The “Japs” were a different race anyway. It’s easier to loathe people from other races. Many American military men referred to Japs as “monkeys in trousers”. Time was running out. If the bombs were not used, the 2 billion $ gamble would be investigated and debated for a long time to come. Bombing must happen before the Japanese surrendered. Leslie Groves, Harry Truman and every patriotic American who knew of A-bombs hoped the opportunity to test them would not slip.

***

And the Winner is…

On 10/11 May, 1945, the target committee comprising of a general, a colonel, a captain, a major and nine nuclear scientists gathered in the office of Dr Oppenheimer.

One Dr Stearns described his meticulous work on target selection. The committee agreed the following criteria for the targets:

(a) They be important targets in a large urban area of more than three miles in diameter.

(b) They be capable of being damaged effectively by a blast.

(c) They are unlikely to be attacked by August, the projected month of bombing.

(d) They should obtain the greatest psychological effect against Japan.

(e) They be spectacular enough to be internationally recognised.

The committee agreed the weapon will not be used against any strictly military target.

[In 1939, the British Prime Minister Chamberlain had told his parliament. “His majesty’s government will never resort to deliberate attack on women and children, and on other civilians for the purposes of mere terrorism.” Though Churchill as ally was to approve the atomic bombing, no British was part of the target committee.

A few years later Harry Truman was to write in his published memoirs: “The final decision of where and when to use the atomic bomb was up to me. Let there be no mistake about it. I regarded the bomb as a military weapon and never had any doubt it should be so used. In deciding to use the bomb, I wanted to make sure it would be used as a weapon of war in the manner prescribed by the laws of war. That meant I wanted it dropped on a military target.”]

In May 1945, the target committee decided the target will not be small and strictly military, because god forbid if the bomb were to miss the target, the expensive weapon would be wasted. Three years of hard work turning futile in a matter of seconds.

Kyoto was the unanimously agreed first choice. It was the cultural centre of Japan. It had about 2000 Buddhist and Shinto temples, palaces, gardens and beautiful architecture. A former capital of Japan, it was now an urban industrial area with more than one million people living in it. People were moving to Kyoto as other parts of Japan were getting destroyed. Kyoto was not yet firebombed. (Tokyo was disqualified since it was extensively bombed anyway. Tokyo firebombing in March 1945 had killed 100,000 as a result of firestorms).

As the target committee mentioned in the minutes “from the psychological point of view there is the advantage that Kyoto is an intellectual center for Japan and the people there are more apt to appreciate the significance of such a weapon as the gadget.” [Presumably it meant people who will survive are more apt to appreciate the significance: R.]

Kyoto met all the criteria. It was an ideal target. The Manhattan committee members, with great enthusiasm and excitement, visualised the day when their first baby would be dropped on this intellectual city.  Kyoto received the AA status – the primary A-bomb target. Gen. Groves approved it. What remained now were the execution plans.

***

Secretary of War

United States of America, a constitutional democracy rather than a military dictatorship, prefers that critical decisions are taken by civilians and not military. General Groves, head of the Manhattan project, was therefore made to report to a civilian boss – Henry Stimson.

Henry Stimson (born 1867), a lawyer by profession, had the singular distinction of serving as the Secretary of War in both the world wars. He was a conservative republican. Stimson maintained a diary on the Manhattan project which has been de-classified since. An excerpt of an entry dated 1 June 1945 reads:

“Then I had in General Arnold and discussed with him the bombing…… in Japan. I told him of my promise from Lovett that there would be only precision bombing in Japan…… I wanted to know what the facts were. He told me that the Air Force was up against the difficult situation arising out of the fact that Japan, unlike Germany, had not concentrated her industries and that on the contrary they were scattered out and were small and closely connected in site with the houses of their employees; that thus it was practically impossible to destroy the war output of Japan without doing more damage to the civilians……than in Europe. He told me, however, that they were trying to keep it down as far as possible. I told him there was one city they must not bomb without my permission and that was Kyoto.”

The target committee continued to support Kyoto as the primary target, and Gen. Groves kept arguing with his boss for the next six weeks.

In his diary on 21 July, 1945 Stimson wrote:

“Massage and dinner, and then in the evening about ten-thirty two short cables came…… indicating that operations would be ready earlier than expected, and also asking me to reverse my decision…… [Gen. Groves requested again to make Kyoto the primary a-bomb target: R.]. I cabled, saying I saw no new factors for reversing myself but on the contrary the new factors seemed to confirm it.”

Three days later, on 24 July, in his meeting with Truman, Stimson emphasised that

 “……the bitterness which would be caused by such a wanton act [destroying Kyoto: R.] might make it impossible during the long post-war period to reconcile the Japanese to us in that area rather than to the Russians.”  

Truman agreed. On 25 July, an order was signed to use the atomic bomb with a tender name “Little Boy” as soon after August 3 as weather permitted. The primary target was – the city of Hiroshima.

***

Pu follows U

The “Little Boy” dropped on Hiroshima at 08:15 am on 6 August 1945 succeeded in killing instantly 80,000 people. (By the end of the year, another 60,000 were to die of injuries and radiation poisoning.) The Americans were jubilant. Victories are in numbers. Except the negligible matter of Hiroshima getting wiped out instead of Kyoto, everything had gone exactly as per plans. Not even suicide pilots were needed for the mission. (Unfortunately, as many as 11 Americans – war prisoners – got killed in Hiroshima. They would be grieved over and monuments built to commemorate their stunning sacrifice.)

The “Little Boy” was gone, and a “Fat Man” waited in the wings. (Little Boy was a Uranium weapon, Fat Man plutonium based. Fat Man with a diameter of 5 feet was twice as wide as Little Boy with a diameter of 28 inches; hence the names). Buoyed with the success of the Uranium A-bomb, the Americans were keen to test the Plutonium-based weapon. They prayed silently against any premature surrender by the Japanese.

On the morning of 9 August, the air force bomber Bockscar carrying the Fat Man took off for the second mission. The target given was the ancient castle-town in Japan – Kokura. 

***

Clouds the Spoilsport

09:20 am on 9 Aug 1945: Bockscar, after flying for more than six hours arrived at Kokura. To the disappointment of the crew, the city was covered with clouds. The plane rotated on top of Kokura three times, hoping for the clouds to clear up. A snag developed in the fuel transfer pump meant the plane didn’t have access to all its fuel.

10:02: Kokura unfortunately was still covered with clouds. Fuel must be conserved. The weather looked bad. The plane couldn’t possibly keep on making runs on top of Kokura. Reluctantly, it was decided to head to Nagasaki, a back-up, 95 miles south of Kokura.

10:46: The plane arrived at Nagasaki, which goddamn it, was also covered with clouds. This was truly frustrating. The instructions in case the clouds remained, were for the plane to fly back to Okinawa, and dispose of the a-bomb in the ocean. Major Sweeney, the pilot, could not imagine wasting a whole expensive plutonium bomb in the ocean. During the two runs on top of Nagasaki, the clouds still prevented any action. Americans cursed their luck and prayed at the same time.

11:00: The prayers of the flying Americans were answered. The cloud cover briefly cleared up. The Fat Man was dropped. At two minutes past eleven, it exploded generating an estimated 7000 degrees Fahrenheit heat, and 625 miles per hour winds.  

The bomb instantly killed 70,000 and injured 60,000.

Both missions were resounding accomplishments. On 14 August, 1945 the Japanese Emperor Hirohito surrendered. The Second World War was over.

***

Clouds

Clouds saved Kokura and their clearing up doomed Nagasaki.

What saved Kyoto?

It transpired that the Secretary of War Henry Stimson had had his honeymoon in Kyoto. So many fond memories were attached to that place. Using the privilege of his position, Stimson kept striking Kyoto out of the target list under various pretexts.

Clouds saved Kokura. (In Japanese, there is an idiom now: Kokura’s luck)

Sentimentality of a powerful American spared Kyoto.

Ravi

North Korea: A Belligerent Rabbit

Why North is not East?

In the 1980’s, Moscow’s Pushkin Institute of Russian Language offered me lessons in geography that no textbook had ever managed to.  Since USSR was communist and wished to propagate communism to others, all communist and capitalist countries; including the two Germanys, and the two Koreas; were represented at Pushkin Institute.

I knew I was in Eastern Europe. I knew what the West or Western democracies meant.  In 1987, I visited both Germanys myself. East Berlin was a breath-holding adventure. The GDR [German Democratic Republic; communist dictatorships often call themselves either democratic or ‘people’s’] authorities controlled my every movement. I felt relieved when I returned to West Germany. West Germany was the affluent, free, healthy, clean place shining with electronic billboards; East its poor, authoritarian, paranoid, gloomy counterpart. I think around then the question about Koreas sprang to my mind the first time: why when Germany is divided – so logically – in East and West; Korea gets split in North and South? If the places were unintentional guinea pigs to test the battle of the West vs East; why wasn’t Korea divided vertically like Germany was? 

I found the answer in the 1990’s when I visited Khabarovsk, a town in the Russian Far East.  When studying its map, I was jolted by a geopolitical epiphany. 

Germany was divided into East and West because the USSR was to the East of Germany. Korea was divided into North and South because the USSR was to the North of Korea!

***

The blue suits

Pushkin Institute had at least forty North Korean students, all male and all fairly short.  One thing was visibly unusual. They were dressed formally all the time, in blue suits – with a lapel pin on chest displaying a photograph. Throughout the year, they attended classes wearing suits. One of them lived on my floor. He gave his name as Lee. I asked him why they couldn’t wear normal student clothes – like we did. Lee said he was representing North Korea. The Group Leader (a North Korean spy who accompanied them to Moscow and lived in the same hostel) had prescribed blue suits as a uniform even before leaving Pyongyang.

“And whose picture are you advertising here?” I pointed to his lapel pin.

“Don’t you know?” Lee asked, thinking I was joking. “You really don’t know? The whole world knows him. He is the “Great Leader” – Kim II Sung.”

***

The North Korean president

Kim II Sung (born 1912) was the president of North Korea then – in 1987. He is the president of North Korea today. And unless international community does something about it, he will still be the president fifty years from now. Surprised?

In the 1930’s; Kim, a communist guerrilla, fought in northern China against Japan. He rose in ranks and became a commander in 1941, before the Japanese drove guerrillas away from China. Kim escaped to the abovementioned Khabarovsk (USSR) and served in the Soviet Red Army until the end of World War II. Stalin rewarded him by making him the head of North Korea. 

In the fifty years since the WWII, Kim II Sung managed to become an absolute dictator, a supreme and brutal repressor. He ran the country in the best Stalinist traditions, killing free market and free speech. A self-proclaimed god, he converted North Korea into a private empire by introducing dynastic rule.  (Reminds one of Saudi Arabia, or even Iraq. If not killed, one of Saddam’s sons would have succeeded him. We see dynasties in Muslim dictatorships, sometimes even in constitutional democracies (Kennedy, Bush, Nehru-Gandhi); but North Korea is the only communist country ever to establish a dynastic rule). 

In 1994, Kim II sung died – in the sense generally understood. His son Kim Jong-il announced official mourning for three years. Not showing grief became a punishable crime. The junior Kim replaced the Gregorian calendar with a Korean calendar that begins with the birth of Kim II Sung. Not surprisingly, Kim’s body was embalmed and a mausoleum built, but Kim Jong-il went a step further in showing creativity. Lenin’s mummy had remained a spiritual force for the USSR after his death.

Kim Jong-il defied death. He announced his father was, is and will remain the president of North Korea. For ever.

***

A Matter of Chance

Our lives are a matter of pure geopolitical chance. If you are born on the wrong side of the border, your life takes a very different course.

Until 1945, Korea was one. One of the oldest civilisations, the Korean peninsula was annexed for most of its existence by the Chinese or the Japanese.

In 1895, the Japanese killed the Korean empress Myeongseong as part of a strategy to capture Korea, then under Chinese influence. Japan fought two wars: with China (1894-95) and Russia (1904-1905), and obtained control over Korea. In 1910, Korea became an official Japanese colony to be brutally exploited and shamelessly looted for the next thirty years. In 1945, the Japanese were defeated in the WWII and the Koreans thought they would be free. They were wrong.

The Soviet Union and the United States agreed to occupy Korea, only temporarily, as trustees. Kim II-Sung, nominated by the soviets, began implementing the Soviet model in the North. The Americans wished to see a capitalist, democratic, united Korea in due course.  Kim began rapid militarization and in 1950 Stalin approved invasion of the south. In the war that happened between the North and the South (1950-1953); USSR and later China supported the communist North; USA and allies supported the South. The Civil war stopped after 2.5 million Koreans were killed. In 1953, two nations were officially endorsed.

For Koreans, particularly those close to the middle of the country, it was a 50:50 chance they would be part of the northern or the southern state. Until 1945, people on both sides had lived similar lifestyles, followed the same customs, spoke one language. Their history was common.

Today, in 2006; no matter where we live, our homes are likely to have things made in South Korea – maybe Samsung, LG, Daewoo or Hyundai. South Korea is now a democracy practising free market economy.  It’s one of the elite 15 countries whose GDP exceeds one trillion USD (North Korea GDP: 40 billion USD). 35% of South Korea’s economy is made up of exports, mainly electronic goods, cars, steel, ships and semi-conductors.

North Korea, on the other hand, is a highly secretive and isolated state that spends one third of its GDP on military. Every fourth North Korean serves in some military capacity. Satellite pictures show surreally empty roads. Since 1990, hunger has killed 3 million people. Availability of electricity and water is sporadic. Torture, public executions, slave labour, forced abortions and infanticides in prison are common. North Korea reportedly has 200,000 political prisoners. Radio and TV sets are pre-tuned to listen to the state propaganda. Media and press sing daily eulogies dedicated to the legendary father and son. Reporting of famine or hardships is prohibited.

In 2005, the World Food programme reported that an average 7-year old boy in North Korea weighs 20 pounds less and is 8 inches shorter than his counterpart in the South.

Before the collapse of the Soviet union, North Korea relied on the two communist giants for sponsorship and forced barter trade. Since 1990, China, the only big brother left, is confused and occasionally reluctant. Collapse of the USSR was a key reason why 3 million North Koreans have died of starvation since.

What are the ways in which North Korea currently makes money?

(a) Aid, some humanitarian. This is procured mainly by threatening to go nuclear. Now that they have gone nuclear, the threat will change its format.

(b) Illicit arms dealing: North Korea has no qualms about supplying to any state sensitive weapons and technology, including delivery vehicles for nuclear weapons. Pakistan and Iran are interested partners. Reportedly, the Ghauri missile which Pakistan successfully test-fired in 1998 was made in North Korea.

(c) Counterfeiting: During my tobacco days, I had seen quality samples of counterfeit cigarettes (meaning packs, not cigarettes – the product was awful) coming out of North Korea. A more lucrative business is printing of 100$ notes, technically called “Supernotes (or Superdollars)”. The counterfeiting specialists acknowledge their almost identical nature. North Korean diplomats and Europe’s underworld were used for distribution of superdollars. Since 2004, the USA has launched attack on the operations and closed at least one bank (Banco Delta Asia, Macao) engaged in money laundering. The United States have threatened sanctions irrespective of the nuclear scenario. Nuclear threat is a potential threat. Superdollars are a real menace.

***

Dear Leader

Sixty years after the Second World War, half of the Korean Peninsula is thus blessed with a modern concentration camp that boasts of more than 20 million starving prisoners ruled over by their own Hitler and their own Nazis.

Kim Jong-il (born 1941), the ruling son of the eternal president, is described as a reclusive playboy with bouffant hair. Embarrassed with height of 5’3’’, he walks on platform shoes. Hennessy VSOP cognac claims he is their number one customer in the world. Vain, paranoid and a hypochondriac; Kim Jong-il fears air travel. During his train travel of thousands of miles between Moscow and Pyongyang, he had live lobsters and roasted donkey air-lifted to the train every day, and he ate them with silver chopsticks. (Apparently silver makes it easy to detect poisonous materials). In the train, he had surrounded himself with a bunch of beautiful female companions. Indeed, he has established “pleasure brigades” of teenage schoolgirls whose job is to help him and his officers relax.

Kim Jong-il has written six operas (Hitler was a prolific painter) and a book on films. He reportedly loves films. In 1978, he kidnapped a famous South Korean film director and his actress girlfriend, and forced them to make films for North Korea. Kidnapping is not his only hobby. In 1986, he arranged the bombing of the South Korean Jet in which 115 people were killed.

He was born in Siberia, while his father was in exile. But now his birthplace (on top of Korea’s highest mountain Paektu) and year (1942, being more auspicious) are fabricated to make him a legend. “Dear Leader” is the title by which the North Korean population calls him – several times daily as prescribed. He and his father are omnipresent – in portraits, monuments, bridges, lapel pins. There are two or three candidates from among his army of sons, legitimate and others, groomed to succeed him.

The Dear Leader, like the country he rules, is secretive. His voice has never been broadcast since 1992.

***

Axis of Evil

Now that this madman has conducted a nuclear test what should the international community (read USA) do?

After the dissolution of Soviet Union, Koreas should have been united just like Germanys were. The incompetence and inhuman-ness of Soviet system did not require any further proofs.  Unfortunately, China happened to be North Korea’s key neighbour. Communist-imperialist States traditionally like buffer states around them. That ensures own security and also stops citizens from fleeing the country easily. China, the surviving big brother, is now confused because it doesn’t understand how to handle its irritating sibling. Russia and South Korea, the other neighbours, are keen to avoid war in the neighbourhood. Japan is close enough to feel threatened. The Japanese remember the brutalities perpetrated by their ancestors on Koreans in the first half of the 20^th century.

[In one of the rare accounts of a personal visit to Pyongyang http://www.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/asiapcf/09/13/nkorea.dougherty.notebook/index.html

Jill Dougherty, a CNN managing editor, narrates how her guide explained Korea to her. “Korea is like a rabbit. Its face is toward China. Its back is toward United States. Its ass is toward Japan. Its mouth is toward Russia.”]

The rhetoric used after every nuclear test is as hypocritical as the “Nuclear Proliferation Treaty.” Nations owning and building warehouses of nuclear toys condemn the country acquiring its first toy. India and Pakistan were condemned, economic sanctions imposed on them. Now it’s all forgiven. The USA may sign a civilian nuclear deal with India soon. The nuclear powers have no moral right to condemn or impose sanctions. (Technically: India and Pakistan did not sign the treaty, so they were all right. North Korea withdrew from the treaty in 2003. So there is no breach).  

Having said that, the world has changed since 11 September 2001. The threat is not of North Korea possessing nuclear weapons. The threat is little of North Korea attacking South Korea or Japan. The greatest threat is the money-starved nation and its egomaniacal despot selling nuclear weapons to terrorists. There is some evidence of North Korea supplying arms such as rocket propelled grenade launchers to terrorist organisations in Burma and Sri Lanka. Al Qaida may offer more money.  

Nuclear arms work as deterrent; only when they are owned by tangible, visible, bombardable states. Pakistan knows if they wipe out Mumbai, India could wipe out Pakistan in retaliation. So neither party is likely to take the first step. This is not the case with faceless, landless, faithless terrorists. One doesn’t know whom to bomb in retaliation. Nuclear weapons in the hands of terrorists are not for deterrence. They serve either to terrorise or blackmail.

In Russian, there is a proverb: Having said “a”, you must say “b”. In January, 2002 George Bush announced North Korea was part of the Axis of Evil along with Iraq and Iran.  In Iraq; the USA failed to find weapons, but succeeded in throwing out Saddam and killing his two sons. Iraq was attacked based on a mere suspicion of possessing weapons of mass destruction. With North Korea it is no longer a suspicion, it is actuality. Logic dictates if Iraq was attacked, North Korea must be attacked and denuclearised. Currently USA is stretched, so they will need to play the time-buying game. Before South Korea and Japan insist on owning nuclear weapons, as they must to protect themselves, USA will have to consider the military option. The objective will be three-fold: (a) denuclearisation (b) regime change (c) absorbing it in South Korea. Unlike Afghanistan or Iraq, there is a capable government ready to take over the running of North Korea.

The alternative is to risk New York in the long run. The prospect of North Korea selling a nuclear bomb to Al Qaida, and Al Qaida blowing it on Manhattan to flatten it, is technically unrealistic today, but not impossible a few years from now. A century after Hiroshima, the impact of New York perishing is bound to be more spectacular. Unlike on 9/11, this time CNN cameras may not be able to capture all action live.

Ravi