Corona Daily 067: The State of New Jersey vs Josephina Brito-Fernandez

Following are the facts of the case.

Josephina Brito-Fernandez, 49, is a home health aide. This is a versatile job that combines qualified nursing with cooking and cleaning. Originally from the Dominican Republic, she is a legal permanent resident of the USA, living in New Jersey with her husband and five children. She speaks only Spanish, her knowledge of English is less than basic.

She had been working for a family of five that included an 80-year old lady. Josephina bathed, fed, cooked and cleaned for the family. For the services, she earned $11 an hour from a staffing agency.

On 16 April 2020, Josephina was tested for covid-19. At the beginning of the pandemic, everyone who was tested was given brochures in English and Spanish. Later when detectives interrogated her, Josephina admitted not reading them, although she can read Spanish. Between the test and the result, the brochure required her to go into isolation. She didn’t.

On 17 April, she came back to the house. The in-house video recording shows she cared for her elderly patient by feeding her, giving her a sponge bath, and taking her vital signs. The same video confirms she was wearing neither PPE nor mask inside the house. Her staffing agency said they expected the staff to wear PPE.

After a few days, the 80-year old lady contracted the covid-19 virus, and was hospitalized. The other four members of the house tested positive as well. The old lady died in the hospital.

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On a complaint filed by the sister of the old lady, police detectives investigated the matter. When probed by them, Josephina acknowledged she understood covid-19 was a serious illness, and that elderly patients were at an increased risk.

On 14 May 2020, Josephina was charged with five criminal counts. The first accusation was that she had knowingly engaged in conduct which created a substantial risk of death. The other four counts related to the other four members of the family, who tested positive, and recovered without hospitalization. Here she was accused of serious bodily injury to four people by visiting victims in their own residence one day after being tested for covid-19.

Her acts were considered felonies, not misdemeanors. In the USA, felony is a serious offence that is punishable by death or imprisonment longer than a year.

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At around the same time when Josephina was charged, the co-owners of a nearby New Jersey gym staged a protest live on Fox News. All the protesters were unmasked. In the live telecast, police told the unmasked crowd they were violating the law, and then said “good day” to them. Later, the gym owners received a misdemeanor ticket.

In the same month, President Trump refused to wear a mask, and encouraged his admirers to follow suit. Months later, in a superspreader event organized in the White House Rose Garden, most attendees were sat without masks very close to one another. The video recording of that event is available.

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There is no mention of whether Josephina had tested positive. Her crime was to visit the family between the test and the result. Felony charges allow the State to deport legal residents. Josephina spent nine months in a terrified state, with the prospect of imprisonment followed by deportation. Though her lawyer felt the prosecution case was weak; the risk was too high for a non-white, non-citizen woman. Juries are unpredictable, or rather predictable when the defendant is poor and black or Hispanic.

A compromise was reached with the prosecution, whereby Josephina would permanently lose her licence to work. Had she been convicted, she would have lost it anyway. She is put on probation in lieu of imprisonment. As an offender, she is ordered to follow a set of conditions set by the court, under the supervision of a probation officer. If she breaks any rules, she will be sent to prison.

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This is the only known case in the civilized world where suspicion of virus transmission became a serious criminal offence.

Ravi 

Corona Daily 068: Tomorrow’s Breakfast will be More Expensive

Last week, the United Nations issued the latest Food Price Index. Food and Agriculture organization (FAO) is UN’s specialized arm that deals with global food security. Its motto is “Let there be bread (fiat panis)”

The report analyses food prices into five groups. (a) Cereals (b) Vegetable Oils (c) Dairy products (d) Meat (e) Sugar.

Overall food prices in May 2021 were nearly 40% higher than a year ago. Rising every month during the pandemic, the price index was the highest since September 2011.

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Among the cereals, international maize prices rose most dramatically, 90% more than a year ago, and reaching their highest since January 2013. USA may be able to maintain its production, but Brazil’s weather is predicted to result in a heavy maize shortfall. Wheat prices, despite a good crop in EU and America, grew by almost 30% in a year.

Vegetable oil price inflation is driven by rising palm, soy and rapeseed oil prices. Palm oil inventories are low, thanks to the slow production in Southeast Asia. Soybean oil is becoming more expensive because in addition to food, it is now used as biodiesel.

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Dairy products also became almost 30% more expensive. Skim milk powder was the inflation leader. You may want to replace cheese with butter in your sandwich. Cheese became dearer due to lower supplies from the EU. Butter prices fell on increased exports from New Zealand.

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Cereal prices usually push meat prices higher, because animals consume a lot of vegetarian food. Meat prices have been growing for the past eight months, and are 10% higher than in May 2020. The closures of slaughterhouses during the early months, and general slowdown in production of bovine and ovine meats have shifted demand to poultry and pig meats in certain countries. As Europe and North America come out of the pandemic, and start eating out, the demand will grow further.

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Sugar prices have remained relatively calm, growing only in the past two months, and reaching the highest level since March 2017. Brazil is the world’s largest sugar exporter. Prolonged dry weather has affected the crop development. Brazilian Real became stronger (because USD became weaker), hampering exports. Fortunately, Indian sugar exports have shot up capping the international sugar prices.

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Food prices are rocketing globally. The World Bank estimates pandemic has added 120 million ‘new poor’, those below the extreme poverty line ($1.90 a day). In Nigeria, food inflation rose to 23% in March. In Indonesia, tofu costs 30% more than a year ago. In Lebanon, with half the country below the poverty line, food is five times more expensive than in 2019. In Russia, food prices rose 7.7% in 2020, forcing Putin to order his ministers to check inflation. In the UK, 10% people used food banks.   

As if this was not enough, an American survey of 4,000 consumers shows a boom in unhealthy eating. During the pandemic, Americans increased their consumption of junk snacks, desserts and sugary drinks. A 2007-2009 survey of 60,000 Americans had concluded: “dietary quality plummeted along with the economy.”

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Other than the laws of supply and demand, two factors contribute to the global food pricing. One is climate change. With global warming, drier and hotter weather, food production is projected to be affected. With population growth, the next big threat is food insecurity.

Oil price is the other key factor. On 20 April 2020, crude oil futures dropped below $zero for the first time in history. By October 2020, it had recovered to $35. Today, at $70, it is already double that. In the previous global food crisis a decade ago, oil prices were close to $150 a barrel.

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Why is the issue of Food prices important? Because beyond a certain point, they cause riots and social unrest. In 2008, the food price spike had started bread riots. Bahrain, Yemen, Jordan, Egypt and Morocco saw food demonstrations. Food prices played a major role in the Arab Spring, the political uprising three years later.

To resolve the food price crisis, the world can’t wait till the end of the pandemic.

Ravi 

Corona Daily 069: Why Did We Become Unfit So Quickly?

In 1987, I was a student volunteer in Austria. Our group was building a house 110 km from Vienna. On a free day, I had borrowed the camp organiser’s bicycle and was gleefully riding it through Austria’s breathtaking landscape. It was a hill of some sort, and I immensely enjoyed going down at a speed more appropriate for a motorbike. When I started my return journey, I realized what uphill meant. (The bicycle had no gears). After a brief struggle, I got off and walked all the way up, dragging the bicycle alongside. I took twenty minutes to go down, and four hours to climb up the same distance.

Stock markets offer similar rides. If the $100 share you hold goes down by 50%, its value becomes $50. If it then goes up by 50%, the value becomes only $75. To restore the original $100, the share must shoot up by 100%.

Going down is easy and fast. Climbing up is difficult and slow. In the pandemic, everybody’s fitness level has gone down. Recently, two professors at Anglia Ruskin University - Dan Gordon (Cardio respiratory exercise physiology) and Justin Roberts (Health and exercise nutrition) analysed the speed at which we become unfit.

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How do we increase our fitness? By doing something more than our body is used to. The body takes stress, then adapts to it, leading to higher fitness. When a marathon runner’s weekly mileage goes gradually from 10 km to 80km, at every level they feel fitter. Fitness is the greatest reward for such craziness.

VO, max is one of the modern measures of fitness. (V=volume, O=oxygen, M=maximum). It measures the amount of oxygen a person can use during exercise. The higher it is the better. The average untrained healthy male has a VOmax of 35-40. This value exceeds 80 for elite marathon runners, racing cyclists or Olympic skiers.

Fitness is an outcome of a combination of exercise, diet, rest and sleep. It requires hard work and commitment. Losing it through de-training happens rapidly.

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The professors took the case of a marathon runner running regularly, about 90 km per week, for 15 years. If he stopped training completely, as happened to many runners during strict lockdowns, the fitness levels came down within weeks. When training was stopped, in the first four weeks, VO2 Max declined by 10%. It continued to go down, at a slower rate over a longer period.

For average people engaged in some sort of fitness training, VO2 max falls sharply and in eight weeks they go back to pre-training levels. In other words, the effect of all that exercise in the past may be wiped out. (Sounds scary).

The reason is the reductions in blood and plasma volumes by 12% in the first four weeks. This happens because we no longer put the stress we used to on heart and muscle during exercise.

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Talking about strength, for an average person, 12 weeks without training causes a significant decrease in the amount of weight we can lift. (Ask me, with my gym closed; I have gone for 64 weeks without weight training). Fortunately, research shows that you retain some of the strength you gained before you stopped training.

When we don’t work our muscles hard, they become lazy, many muscle fibers decrease, resulting in the inability to lift as many weights as we could pre-pandemic. After just two weeks of no weight training, number of muscle fibers goes down by 13%.

When the lockdowns forced us to reduce or stop our exercise, we started losing our fitness levels within 48 hours. But it took two to three weeks for us to feel the effects on cardiovascular fitness and around 6-10 weeks for strength fitness. The professors say that the rates of de-training for men, women and older athletes were similar.

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The lesson is to keep doing some exercise, any exercise, which is permitted. And when eventually gyms and swimming pools open up, and roads welcome marathoners and cyclists, we will need to put in a lot more effort to regain our pre-pandemic fitness level.

Ravi 

Corona Daily 070: Professor Van Ranst in Hiding

Marc Van Ranst, 55, the chief virologist of Belgium, is hiding with his family in a “safe house” in a secret place.

On 17 May, Jurgen Conings, a military shooting instructor, stole a rocket launcher, machine gun and other ammunition before disappearing. The ex-soldier had served in Afghanistan. Before he made himself AWOL (Absent Without Official Leave), he wrote a letter to his girlfriend. In it, he said “I could no longer live in a society where politicians and virologists have taken everything away from us.” Conings, known for his far-right leanings, is a man of action. On twitter he posted: “Who has Van Ranst’s address?”

It transpired that the heavily armed Conings was waiting on professor Ranst’s street, right in front of his house on 18 May. He had waited for the epidemiologist to return from his work. That day, fortunately, the professor had returned home early, and was with his family.

Belgian authorities now admit Conings was already on a terrorism watch list because of his extremist messaging. It was a mistake to allow such a man access to a weapons store.

Earlier this week, Facebook shut down a 45,000 member support group for Conings. However, such groups now use the Telegram app, which wants to grab market share from WhatsApp and Messenger. Telegram is lenient, and known for its encrypted messages.

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This week, 250 police officers and 150 army men have been combing the Hoge Kempen national park near the Dutch border. The German and the Dutch police are supporting the action. Two helicopters, armored carriers and heavy vehicles are deployed for this national manhunt.

On 4 June, a magistrate has launched an investigation for attempted murder, terrorism and possession of weapons.

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While Marc Ranst faces a lockdown triggered by a terrorist, Japp Van Dissel, his Dutch counterpart is the victim of a hate campaign that claimed he was a pedophile. Professor Dissel was not threatened by a gunman, but by two women.

A 54 year old woman shared the professor’s home address on Telegram and urged followers to “bring bricks on his birthday”. The woman was arrested, tried, and sentenced to eight weeks in prison.

Another lady, a 53 year old, circulated a vicious video stating that Van Dissel was a pedophile. She was given six weeks.

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Each democratic country has a leading epidemiologist since the beginning of the pandemic. Names like Dr Fauci in the USA or Dr Neil Ferguson in the UK are known internationally. As experts, they appear on television, in some countries on a daily basis, and explain the situation and measures taken. They are as prominent as the country’s leaders.

In fact, I would say the presence of the chief epidemiologist is a measure of the nation’s democracy. An authoritarian political leader doesn’t like to create another power center. If you struggle to name the chief epidemiologist in your country, you can assume democracy is absent or in danger.

In civilized nations, prominent epidemiologists have been villainised. They are accused of being responsible for lockdowns, masks, isolation, travel restrictions and business closures. Bild, the well known German newspaper, blamed professor Drosten, Germany’s chief epidemiologist, for closure of schools and kindergartens. Dr Fauci faces rants, criticisms, accusations and death threats. In some cases, frustrated people who have lost their jobs may vent their anger. A Belgian chef had asked on his Facebook wall if anyone could put a bullet in Van Ranst for his scaremongering. His restaurant was shut as a result of the lockdown announced by Ranst. Next day, though, the chef apologized for his emotional outbreak.

Most epidemiologists worldwide have been provided with police protection. The situation with Professor Van Ranst is an extreme one where a trained sniper is out to kill him, and Belgium is on an unprecedented manhunt.

For the sake of science and humanity, we have to hope the terrorist is arrested and that professor Ranst and his family can return to a reasonably normal life. If virologists are subjected to constant death threats, who would want to take up that job when the next virus pops up?

Ravi 

Corona Daily 071: Dr Tomoaki Kato

Dr Tomoaki Kato, 56, was among the first Covid-19 patients in the USA. He had spent his entire adult life in hospitals, without ever being a patient there. He was fit and healthy, seven New York marathons to his credit. One day in March 2020, suddenly feeling breathless in the shower, oxygen level dangerously low, he reluctantly admitted himself to the same New York hospital where he worked. Once on the ventilator, he lost consciousness. Weeks passed without any signs of improvement or consciousness.

The doctors, his colleagues, were depressed. Even if Dr Kato were to survive, would he be a doctor again? There was a long waiting list of patients, and Dr Kato was irreplaceable.

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Dr Tomoaki Kato is the surgical director - adult and pediatric liver and intestinal transplantation. He is the innovator and practitioner of  “ex vivo” operations.

In his first year, Dr Kato and his team operated on Heather McNamara, a 7-year-old girl. She was told by several hospitals her abdominal cancer was inoperable.

As a transplant surgeon, Dr Kato knew organs can survive outside the human body for up to ten hours before going to a recipient.

He clamped the arteries of the little girl and removed her stomach, spleen, liver, small and large intestines and pancreas. The abdominal organs were put in a cold-preservation solution. Once out of the body, it becomes easier to reach and remove the tumours. Dr Kato cut out the tumour in the arteries, reconstructed her blood vessels using synthetic materials, replaced the organs and reconnected the arteries. It was like an organ transplant with the same person as donor and recipient.

When Dr Kato took out the organs, the anesthetized girl was lying on the table, with nothing in her body cavity. Though an empty abdomen was a familiar sight for Dr Kato, his colleagues found it unreal.

The organs were out for 19 minutes. It took an hour to sew them back. Another two hours to re-establish blood flow. The total surgery took fifteen hours. Heather went home in three weeks. She was the first child in the world to undergo multi-organ ex-vivo surgery. Ten years later, she is fine, studying in a college.

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 Over the years, Dr Kato had performed hundreds of complex operations. His operations were also marathons, requiring anywhere between 12 and 20 hours. While the team worked in rotation, Dr Kato stayed alert and in charge throughout. His surgical innovations, skilled hands and superhuman stamina had made the soft spoken surgeon a hero for his colleagues and god for his patients.

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In March, Dr Kato’s chest x-ray confirmed his covid was severe. Initially he had bacterial infections, then sepsis, followed by his kidneys failing, requiring dialysis. After four weeks of unconsciousness, he was put on ECMO, the machine that pumps oxygen into the patient, and sucks out CO2. This is the last resort.

Like many serious covid patients, he had frightening and vivid hallucinations and delusions. Scans found a blood clot and a brain hemorrhage. His hair had fallen out. Finally he woke up, a tube still feeding him. He had no strength and had lost 25 pounds.

It was two months before he could go home. When he left on a wheelchair, 200 staff members gathered around, chanting: Kato. Kato. Kato.

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In August, he started performing surgeries again. First few surgeries he performed sat in a wheelchair, with his sore shoulder wrapped in athletic tape. In two months time, he was performing liver transplants. By March this year, he completed over 40 transplants and 30 other operations.

Now he feels more driven to teach his art to other surgeons. If he died, and nobody else has picked up his magic, it will be a problem, he knows.

He also now understands better how patients feel. When he encouraged them to take a feeding tube, and said it might look like hell, he didn't know what hell meant. Now he does. He had experienced a near-death. “I was there”, are very powerful words for patients, he says.

Ravi 

Corona Daily 072: A Chip In Your Shoulder

On 7 May, a group of Columbia University engineers published a paper about a microchip designed by them. This microchip can sit inside the tip of a needle. That photo with accompanying captions like “I am not getting chipped by the government”, “Make sure to get your vaccine!!” “Now you know why the magnet sticks” went viral on Facebook. A “magnet challenge” competition alleged that a strong magnet will stick to the arm where the covid-19 vaccine was injected.

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James Heathers is the Chief Scientific Officer of a data company making wearable devices. He holds a doctorate in physiological-signal methodology. For the last fifteen years, he designs and sticks tech devices on or in people. Yesterday, in the Atlantic, he analysed the chip in the shoulder hypothesis.

First, he says, the syringe filling operation is visible to anyone who cares to watch it. Empty syringes are filled from vials, six shots per vial drawn out for Pfizer. Nurses fill the syringes; other nurses take the trays of prefilled syringes to tables, another nurse administers the jab. Pfizer syringes are Monojects (maker Cardinal Health). This needle snaps after a single use. To avoid injuries to nurses.

The Monoject needle is narrow, 25 gauge, its diameter about one quarter millimeter. Bigger needles, 16-gauge, are used for blood donation. Smaller, 30-gauge for injecting insulin. The bigger the gauge, smaller the needle.

The needle’s length is 1.5 inches, to make sure that on big arms, it can reach the muscle through skin and subcutaneous fat. Other than the nurse injecting, there is no human contact. No hugs, no handshakes. Everyone is masked. Little opportunity for micro-chipping at the vaccination center.

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The chip with 5G functionality is ruled out. The size of a penny, it can never fit inside a needle.

If some evil-schemer, whether named Bill or otherwise, wants to use a real tiny microchip, and inject it into billions of arms, he might consider pre-filling the syringes, not the vaccine vials, with the microchips.

Now there is a problem. If a vaccine liquid in a vial has six microchips, it is near impossible to draw it into six syringes so as to have one chip in each. Dr Heathers has calculated the vial must contain 26 chips to improve the chances of each person getting at least one chip in the arm. The evil Bill will have a real problem dealing with people with several microchips inside them.

The only possibility, Heathers says, would be to preload the tiniest microchip into the barrel of each syringe, and then hope it ejects itself when injected into the arm.

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Assuming that is done, the system needs to be somehow powered. Microchips of that size can’t have in-built batteries; an external source must power them. This requires a pretty hefty energy source very close to the injection site. Maintaining secrecy of the microchipping operation would not be easy.  

The other technical issue is how to get the data off the chip. A microchip or an RFID tag can function only if it can communicate through an inch of muscle, fat and skin. A muscle is a bag of fluid, known to obstruct radio signals. (GPS animal tracking usually involves attaching the GPS tracker to a radio collar, not insert it inside the animal).

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Dr Heathers rests his case here. He doesn’t even want to think of the other questions such as: how to make billions of such high-end chips in times of severe semiconductor shortage? How to persuade giant listed companies to risk committing an act of secret micro-chipping? How to offer an after-injection-maintenance? Etc.

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The Columbia Engineering group has since clarified their research has nothing to do with covid-19 and vaccinations. The microchip made by them uses ultrasound and can measure only temperature. Temperature of the rats. The microchip has been tested only on rodents, not on humans. Human testing will not happen any time soon.

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If you are already vaccinated, be happy. Nobody has planted any microchips inside you.

Ravi 

Corona Daily 073: Zoo Baby Boom

This pandemic has brought some delightful news from all around the world - animals are producing far more babies than usual. Several animals in zoos gave birth for the first time.

Tourism is a key income source for Sri Lanka. Its zoos have been shut since March 2020. For the first time, the Sri Lanka Zoo witnessed the births of a black swan, a white peacock and a Nilgai, Asia’s largest antelope. In addition, an Arabian oryx, black duck, scimitar-horned oryx, a zebra, and three lion cubs were born. In the absence of visiting crowds, animals moved around more freely and successfully consorted with mates.

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In the San Antonio Zoo in Texas, the arrival of a baby bird called Micronesian Kingfisher was a surprise. It was thought to be extinct. Two near-extinct aquatic species of pupfish gave birth in the zoo’s aquarium. The last sighting of a La Palma pupfish in the wild was in 1994, and that of the Charco Palma pupfish in 1995.

Seven Tasmanian Devils were born in Australia for the first time after 3000 years (imported earlier). They are the world’s largest carnivorous marsupials. As native predators, they are capable of controlling the populations of feral cats and foxes.

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Kenya has had an elephant baby boom. A record breaking 248 baby elephants were born in Amboseli national park alone. The lockdowns were not responsible for the conception, since elephants are pregnant for about two years. In a drought, females stop their cycles. Kenya had a terrible drought in 2017, and in 2018, the elephants started mating. The pandemic helped, because poaching and killing of animals stopped.

Conservationists don’t name the elephants till they are four years old, because of high infant mortality. Out of the 248 babies born, 240 have survived. Twins are rare, because the mother struggles to give milk to two hungry babies. In the pandemic baby boom, two pairs of twins have survived beyond six months, the critical mark.

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Animals in Palestine are perhaps safer than people. At a Palestinian zoo, peacocks, ostriches and baboons joined a baby boom that produced three times more than the usual animals. With people visiting the zoo daily, in normal years an ostrich laying eggs could rarely incubate them properly. This year, she produced eleven eggs, and with no people around, was able to build a nice nest.

In Siberia’s Krasnoyarsk zoo, the rare births included Egyptian goslings, reindeer calves, llama crias and a brown weeper capuchin monkey. Only the zoo’s herd of camels seems to be missing visitors. In a confused state, they followed every zoo employee walking past their enclosure.

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Spring is usually the best season for fertility in the animal kingdom. More food is available. With more rainfall, more sunlight and longer days the animal parents in the wild have more time to hunt and nurse their babies. Warm weather helps to protect the babies.

Zoos in North America usually celebrate zoo babies’ month in May. Now all zoos are expecting a large second wave of births.

As compared to humans, the pandemic had a reverse effect on animals. Instead of distancing, they came closer. Giant pandas, generally lacking the drive and skill, managed to mate and produce babies in America and Hong Kong. At the Houston zoo, three weeks is all it took for one male bongo to impregnate three females.

Houston zoo, not wanting more mouths in the pandemic, separated a pair of hedgehog tenrecs. The couple was separated for 89 days. The zoo specialists thought 42 to 49 days was the gestation period. To their shock, after 89 days, the female gave birth to three babies.

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What the pandemic has made obvious is that animals need privacy just like we do. It is known that cheetahs, white rhinos, Yangtze turtles, whooping cranes and giant pandas have great difficulties conceiving in captivity. Shutting down zoos for visitors and jungles for poachers has worked wonders for the animal kingdom.

It may be better to free endangered and near-extinct species from zoos. Perhaps in the wild, they can more easily be fruitful and multiply.

Ravi 

Corona Daily 074: The World Filled with Ex-Health Ministers

The pandemic for health ministers began with Yelzhan Birtanov of Kazakhstan. Holding the post since early 2017, he tested positive in June 2020. He tweeted he had developed pneumonia which required serious treatment, and resigned.

The next month, David Clark, New Zealand’s health minister took his family to the beach. They also drove to a mountain biking track. In his professional capacity, Clark had imposed border closures and strict lockdown measures. When found out, he called himself an idiot, and resigned.

Also in July, Zafar Mirza, Pakistan’s de facto health minister was accused of having a foreign passport. In his asset declaration, he had not revealed it. His dual nationality doomed his job.

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In January 2021, USA’s Alex Azar had to go along with Trump. Strangely, his resignation letter included text urging Donald Trump to promote a peaceful transition in view of the Capitol riots the previous week.

In the same month, protests erupted in Mongolia. The nation saw the inhuman treatment of a covid-19 patient and her newborn baby. Video footage showed the patient, in her nightgown and slippers, was forcibly relocated with her baby to a quarantine facility. Both the Prime Minister and the health minister of Mongolia resigned “assuming responsibility upon themselves and accepting the demand of the public.”

In February, Latin America had a large wave, in which the health ministers of Ecuador, Argentina and Peru had to resign.

Ecuador’s Juan Carlos Zevallos resigned after his interference in the vaccination trial was revealed. Among other things he had conducted inoculation at his mother’s nursing home from the vaccine trial doses.

Gines Gonzales Garcia, Argentina’s health minister, started the vaccination drive with his friends, associates and other political figures. This didn’t go well with the public.

In a similar case, Peru had vaccinated 500 government officials secretly before the public. Pilar Mazzetti, a lady health minister said she didn’t know anything about it. She not only knew, but was vaccinated secretly herself. She had to go.

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In March 2021, in Jordan King Abdullah and his son were visiting a hospital where at least seven people died when their oxygen supply ran out. The king was very angry and said things can’t be dealt with this way. Following that Nathir Obeida, the health minister had to resign accepting moral responsibility for the incident.

In the same month, Marek Krajci, Slovakia’s health minister was ousted. The entire cabinet including the prime minister had to resign following the scandal about secret imports of Sputnik V. I have covered this story in detail earlier.

 In April 2021, an oxygen tank exploded causing a fire at a Baghdad hospital. The fire left 82 people dead. Hassan al-Timini, the health minister of Iraq offered his resignation.

In the same month, Rudolph Anschober, (photo above), Austria’s health minister resigned. He had taken up this job a few weeks before the start of the pandemic. He said his 15 months felt like 15 years. He was overworked and exhausted. Facing death threats, he was under police protection since November. His blood pressure and sugar had gone up, and he was diagnosed with an early stage tinnitus. This was the occupational hazard for any health minister in a pandemic.

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In the competition for the highest number of resignations, Czech Republic currently leads Brazil. Vojtech was the first to go for lack of a pandemic strategy. Roman Prymula was dismissed after he was photographed visiting a restaurant that should have been shut. Jan Blatny was fired over his handling of the pandemic. Last week, Petr Arenberger resigned. The tax department found his income and assets grew suddenly after he became a minister.

In Brazil, so far, three health ministers have lost their jobs.

The list is longer with Poland, Paraguay and others. UK’s Matt Hancock saved himself – yesterday was the first day in a year when UK had not a single covid death.

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Harsh Vardhan (India), Mikhail Murashko (Russia), Saeed Namaki (Iran) and Jorge Varela (Mexico) have been the health ministers of their respective countries throughout the last eighteen months.

The reasons for their not resigning are not known.

Ravi 

Corona Daily 075: Turning Boardrooms into Bedrooms

What was suspected a year ago is now reality. Some big names in America and Europe are giving up their office space. JPMorgan Chase, Ford, Salesforce, Target are reducing their real estate. The CEO of JP Morgan Chase, the largest private employer in New York City, said the bank will keep about 60 seats per 100 employees. United Airlines is giving up 150,000 sq feet at Willis tower in Chicago. Salesforce is subletting 225,000 sq feet.

What is going to happen to all the surrendered space in New York and London? The plan is to convert the office space into residential housing.

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Three types of conversions are planned. Offices into residences. Hotels into residences. And hotels into offices. The last category is about renting or leasing hotel space for staff to meet or to use as a co-working hub.

Converting office buildings into residential is an architectural challenge. Office building floor plates are usually large and deep to provide layout and partitioning flexibility. Elevators may need to be ripped off. A fat office building’s interior may be too dark and airless for someone to live in. Natural light and ventilation, fire and smoke protection, plumbing, electrical installations, an energy efficient wall-to-window ratio are matters that make the conversion challenge daunting. Other than architecture, it will be good for the new housing block to have grocery stores and public transport nearby.

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The office building can be demolished and a new residence block built. That seems like a solution. But usually excavation, foundations, superstructure and elevator shafts account for 30 to 40% of the building’s value. Preserving them saves a lot of money. Moreover, in many places regulations don’t allow change of façade.

For a developer, this is expensive. He must pay for the acquisition of the building and for its conversion. In current times, it is not easy to organize finance. The governments are keen to convert the offices into affordable housing.

In the past, offices and hotels were turned into luxury residential complexes. The 22 floors of New York Telephone Company were transformed into 156 condos, each priced at $4.5 million. The Bank of New York and New York public library at 61 Rivington are now residential.

The suggested solution is that the government should buy the distressed commercial buildings and then give them to developers for conversion.

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UK has a law called PDR (permitted development rights) where converting offices or shops into residences doesn’t require planning permission. This has proven to be controversial, because people living in former shops are stuck with big floor-to-ceiling windows and fully glazed doors. They have little privacy, overheating in summers and freezing in winters.

Recently, in Leicester’s shopping street, a developer planned to convert a chip shop into single room flats of 7.7 sq meters. That would be about 9 feet by 9 feet, with the resident barely moving inside. The UK government has now modified the law to prescribe 37 sq meters as a minimum for a converted one-person home, and 50 sq meters for two people.

In London and other English cities, availability of commercial space rose by 30%, in New York by 17%. In Manhattan, rents have dropped by more than 10%. Value of office space has gone down by 25%. In the last thirty years, such availability has never been seen.

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Landlords are genuinely worried. By law, they couldn’t evict tenants or leaseholders. But the bills are mounting. In New York, hotels have not paid $1.8 billion, in Chicago $1 billion. Sixty American hotels sheltered 9500 homeless people during the pandemic, which was noble, but it hasn’t helped their balance sheets. The New York governor is worried because commercial property accounts for 41% of the property taxes.

Some people compare the situation with the Spanish flu epidemic. By 1923-24, everything was normal. However, 100 years ago, there was no internet. The last year has shown work can be carried on without a large office building. Back-of-the envelope calculations show 3% to be the expense on real estate. Many companies plan to reduce office space by 35% and simply transfer the saved 1% to the bottom line.

In the pandemic, homes are getting converted into offices. Now we know the reverse is also true.

Ravi 

Corona Daily 076: Whatever Happened to the Covid Apps?

Do you remember the variety of contact tracing apps launched a year ago? Download the app and keep Bluetooth on. One fine morning you may get an alert saying a passenger (complete stranger) in your bus has tested positive. Could you go into self-isolation for ten days please?

India’s Aarogya Setu (Health Bridge), with 50 million downloads in the first two weeks, became the world’s fastest growing app, beating Pokemon Go.

In April 2020, Google and Apple, the two giants – competitors – improbably came together to develop an app. Their systems run 99% of the world’s software.

The vision or dream was that the elderly and vulnerable stay at home, everyone else goes about business as usual. Only those getting an alert go into isolation. Modern technology would keep the economy and businesses running. Except the people in isolation or quarantine, life would be normal.

The vision turned out to be a fantasy.

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Bluetooth was capable of producing a huge number of false alerts. GPS-enabled smartphones are accurate up to a 16 feet radius under the open sky. But the social distancing guideline was six feet. You could end up in isolation thanks to a person waiting at the bus stop on the opposite side of the road.

One challenge for the apps was that they must run 24x7 to be effective. The battery started running out rapidly, some android manufacturers shut down the apps to save battery life.

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Google/Apple mechanism made certain improvements. A log entry was added to the phone, only if the two smartphones were in proximity for at least five minutes.

The software relied on the Bluetooth signals to estimate the distance without needing to know people’s locations (a privacy concern). And rotating IDs were used, instead of real names. They called it “exposure notification” rather than “contact tracing”, which was more intimidating.

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Strangely, no country attempted to run trials. Just like medicines and vaccines, a covid app is a health related product.

The software privacy features meant no studies could be conducted to check if alerts really helped reduce virus transmissions. Researchers need names of people to talk to, not rotating ID numbers.

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South Korea treated contact tracing as a detective job. They combined the app with CCTV footage, credit card records, GPS data from the cars and phones. South Koreans’ smartphones vibrated when a new case was discovered in the district. The apps detailed the hour-by-hour, minute-by-minute timeline of infected people’s travel. Which buses they took, where did they get on and off, whether they were wearing masks.

South Koreans ordered into self-quarantine had to download another app. That app showed if the person violated the quarantine. The fine was $2500, payable online.

Alipay, a Chinese app generated a QR code in three colours. A green code on your smartphone meant you could move freely. A yellow code must stay at home for seven days. Red meant a two-week quarantine. (See clip above: passengers must show green code on smartphones before boarding an underground train).

Relative success in South Korea and China could be attributed to large scale; rapid testing, quick results without which contact tracing is not effective. More importantly, South Koreans were voluntarily willing to sacrifice their privacy. In China, privacy concerns didn’t cross anybody’s mind.  

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It is not known to what extent the apps helped China crush the coronavirus. If they did, people living in constitutional democracies may feel angry about the inability and unwillingness of their States to enforce the measures, and the citizens to accept them. In the USA, UK, Europe and India, hundreds of thousands of lives may have been lost because privacy and freedom are more valued than unproven apps that allow the governments to get greater control over our lives.  

Yes, freedom always comes at a price. And usually the price you pay for it is permanent. Once freedom is taken away, it is rarely given back.

Is it worth losing lives for concerns over privacy and government controls? In my view, it is. Because life itself is not life without freedom.

Ravi