Corona Daily 094: Indian Crisis is Global Crisis

In the last financial year, the Indian economy contracted by 8.5%. In the last twenty five years, this was the first time India plunged into recession. 2021 was expected to offer recovery; those hopes are now dashed by the onslaught of the second wave. For more than forty years after independence, India had quasi-communism, and a so-called Hindu Rate of Growth (3.5% and stagnant). Following the collapse of the USSR, India, to an extent, embraced market economy and globalisation. The pandemic threatens India’s ambitious growth plans. Not even the Hindu nationalist government would want to revert to the Hindu rate of growth. A CNN article this week points out why a crisis in India can be a global crisis.

*****

First, the supply chains. 80% global trade by volume happens on ships. India is a quality human resource provider for the shipping industry. Currently, couple of my neighbours, friends, and a nephew are sailing on container ships. They are either captains or chief engineers. Out of the 1.7 million seafarers, more than 200,000 are Indians. In terms of ranking, education and skills, the Indian percentage is high. Shortage of seafarers leads to disruption of supply chains. When countries outright ban flights from India, the Indian captains or chief engineers are unable to reach their ship. Alternatively, many can get stuck for months because the replacement doesn’t arrive. Last year, those cargo ships were called floating prisons. It can happen again this year.

Currently, UAE, Singapore, Hong Kong, and China have already imposed strict quarantine restrictions on vessels arriving from India.

*****

Second, generic medicines. The world by now knows India produces 60% of the world’s vaccines. Serum Institute of India was expected to export 200 million doses to 92 countries, the plan now blockaded by the domestic surge of cases.

India is also the largest supplier of generic (unbranded), cheap medicines. A prescription by an American doctor has 90% drugs made in India. One out of every three pills taken by an American is from India.

Now, there is a catch. India may be the world’s pharmacy, but 70% of the medicines’ raw materials come from China. For USA to get the Indian medicines, the China-India, and India-USA supply chains must function.

Two weeks ago, China’s Sichuan Airlines suspended cargo flights to India for fifteen days. Worried, India’s pharma community has written to the Indian ambassador in Beijing urging him to resolve the issue.

*****

Third, financial services. If other than medicines, India is not great at exporting goods, it is a powerhouse for export of services. As many as 4.4 million Indians work in IT and business process backend, most working for American or European companies.

Banks are encouraging staff to work from home, shifting work out of India, and extending project deadlines. Work from home is complicated because employees are falling sick, or are looking after sick relatives. Security and data protection are additional challenges. Barclays employs 20,000 people in India. In India, banks fall under essential services. Stanchart CEO said the bank has suffered disproportionate share of cases among its branch staff.

The Big Four accounting firms (KPMG, PwC, EY and Deloitte) and Accenture together employ 350,000 Indians. Ernst & Young activated its contingency plans to shift work from India to other geographies. Accenture employs 200,000 people in seven Indian cities. They also have a plan to shift functions elsewhere if necessary.

In addition to the banks and accountancy firms, Amazon, Twitter, Google, Microsoft, Zoom and Indian IT giants Infosys and Wipro have donated money, medical equipment, opened covid care centers, and offered paid sick leave to their employees.

With vaccine nationalism and superior medical infrastructure, ordinary people in America and Britain may be able to celebrate a normal summer this year. However, those engaged in business will pray for India’s recovery. Front office loses its glamour without a well-functioning back office.

Ravi 

Corona Daily 095: The More People Die, the Less We Care

The Syrian war began in 2011. Bashar Assad and his government started mass killing protestors. By 2015, nearly 250,000 died in the Syrian war, most of them civilians. There was little international interest. Those who analysed Google searches for Syria or refugees found zero searches for four years. That changed overnight when the picture of the drowned Syrian toddler (above) Alan Kurdi went viral internationally. Suddenly, the Google search for Syria and refugees zoomed. Donations to the Red Cross were greatly boosted by that single picture. Why did a single photograph manage to motivate when the death of a quarter of a million people didn’t?

*****

Joseph Stalin was a disgusting genocidal butcher. But he has some memorable quotes attributed to him. “One death is a tragedy; a million deaths is a statistic”, he had said.

This feeling of indifference was named “Psychic Numbing” by Dr Robert Lifton, a psychiatrist who studied this phenomenon among Hiroshima survivors.

Dr Paul Slovic, the psychology professor at the University of Oregon has devoted his career to research on this subject. He finds that our brains process situations through gut feelings, not logic. We don’t necessarily feel twice as bad when two people die, as compared to one. And as the numbers grow, numbness grows as well. We don’t notice the difference between 80 lit candles and 81. Similarly, our feelings don’t register the difference between 80 deaths and 81 deaths.

Every year, more than two million children die from diarrhea and eight hundred thousand from measles. Stalin starved seven million Ukrainians in a single year, and Pol Pot killed two million Cambodians. Did the world blink? The official coronavirus death count has passed 3 million. Will we feel any different when it crosses 5 million or 10 million? We likely won’t.

*****

Our capacity to feel is limited.

Many of us are willing to help a single suffering child. Studies have shown that a picture of two children brings down the desire to help. And if it is known that the child is one among thousands or millions, the charitable motive disappears. One life is valuable, but that life loses value, perceptually, if it is part of a larger tragedy. This is technically called the “compassion fade” and the “compassion collapse”.

Charities such as “Save the Children” have recognized it is better to endow a donor with a single, named child to support than to ask for a bigger cause. No matter where we live, we have probably seen a television story where a child falls deep into a narrow well or an abandoned shaft, and the live coverage of the rescue operation is watched by millions for two days. Those millions celebrate the triumph of that rescue because it is an individual story.

There is nothing new about racism in America. But the story and a 9-minute video of a white police officer fatally choking a black man by pressing his knee on him added new life to the “black lives matter” movement.

Abel Herzberg, a holocaust survivor has a famous quote: “There were not six million Jews murdered; there was one murder, six million times.”

*****

If three million people have died in the pandemic, what is there for us to do? We think our efforts are so puny, we end up doing nothing. This is called a “false sense of inefficacy”. It’s not correct to assume we can’t help, we can.

Awareness of the concepts of psychic numbing and compassion collapse is important. It makes us focus on individuals rather than abstract masses. Since the start of the pandemic, I have picked up two individuals in my neighbourhood, a cobbler and a car-washer. Every month, I partly compensate their monthly loss of earnings. They are happy, and I am happy. The joy of giving is no less than the joy of receiving.

Millions affected by the pandemic is a numbing concept. But any of us can help an identified one or two people. When you want to, help as soon as possible. Compassion also has a shelf life and an expiry date.

Ravi 

Corona Daily 096: Licence to Hug

The UK is the happiest nation today.

British are the most law abiding people in the world. And British lawmakers make detailed, fact-figure-and-distance based, precise laws clarifying every human act allowed or disallowed in this pandemic time.

Yesterday, Boris Johnson announced the single biggest step on the roadmap: People can now hug. After a year, hugging will be legal. (Hang on, don’t rush forward so quickly.) Hugging is allowed from Monday, 17 May. Just a little more restraint before you spread your arms.

Yesterday; England, Scotland and Northern Ireland reported zero coronavirus deaths. Wales reported four. In Wales, hugging may not be possible from 17 May, but that point awaits clarification.

Johnson, while making the delightful announcement, urged people to use caution and common sense before hugging. “Whoever I hug, I can assure you, it will be done with caution and restraint”, he said. He clarified hugging remains a matter of personal choice, which probably means it is not mandatory to hug simply because it is now lawful. The licence to hug has venue limitations. In shops, pubs, restaurants and offices, social distancing norms remain intact. Hugging there is not allowed, unless you know some technique of hugging by leaving a gap of one meter plus between the hugger and the huggee.

From 17 May, 30 people, including the bride and groom, will be allowed to attend a wedding. Downing Street confirmed all guests must sit at the tables, and dancing and hugging is not allowed. The same people can hug at home, exercising due caution and common sense, but not at the wedding. A new hashtag #whataboutweddings is trending on social media today.

*****

Health minister Nadine Dorris on BBC Breakfast said friends and families would be allowed to hug, but called for cautious optimism.

Professor John Bell from Oxford University agreed the country was in a strong position to move ahead with hugging. “I think we’ll still probably go steady, but perhaps a bit faster” he told Good Morning Britain.

Minister Michael Gove said government wanted to see “friendly contact” and “intimate contact” between family and friends.

Catherine Noakes, an airborne infection specialist from Leeds University was a spoilsport. She said we should hug in moderation. She offered valuable tips for moderate hugging: Ask yourself - who are you hugging? Are they close family? Friends? Whoever you hug, don’t do it frequently. Let every unavoidable hug be short. Avoid face-to-face hug. Wash hands with soap before hugging. And please keep the mask on while hugging.

Dr Hilary Jones agreed with Professor Noakes. Hugs should be short, selective. “hug your children, grandchildren, not promiscuous hugs we are talking about here, not hugging everybody, not getting too close for too long.” He warned.

*****

A couple of scientists have suggested a brief hug, ensuring not to breathe towards the other person. Maybe both can turn their faces behind while hugging. However, if you choose to hug, enjoy it, advise the same scientists.

Chief scientific advisor Sit Mark Walport said on radio that the UK has 35% unvaccinated adults, 60% with only one dose and the truth is that the virus has not gone away. Sir Walport would like you to remember this while hugging.  

Experts have clarified that like with anything in life, consent is key. Asking someone “may I hug you” before hugging would be polite. You can simply say “what about” and widen your arms, before judging the non-verbal signals from the other party as to whether mutual physical contact is acceptable or not.

*****

The point missed by many foreign readers is that the British have never been known as huggers. They are happy to acknowledge the presence of another person with a quiet nod, or at best a droopy handshake. Thanks to the coronavirus pandemic, for the first time, they get a license and encouragement from the government to hug. The coming months will show how heartily they embrace this newly acquired licence.

Ravi 

Corona Daily 097: Back to Prison

In April 2016, Gwen Levi's sisters applied to President Obama for clemency.

Gwen was 70, suffering from lung cancer. Her 90 year old mother was unlikely to see her again. Since Gwen is black, her family perhaps thought they had a good chance of presidential pardon from Obama. Obama didn’t grant the pardon, perhaps fearing criticism of racial favoritism.

With the pardon rejected, everyone knew Gwen would never return home. Even if she survived the lung cancer, her release date is 2033 when she would be 88 years old.

*****

Born in 1945, Gwen is one of the thirteen children raised by her mother. The father didn’t live with them, Gwen rarely saw him. At 25, she married a man who had three children from an earlier marriage. The couple had three children of their own.  Gwen looked after all six.

In 2000, she was arrested as part of a group selling a kilo of heroine. That crime carries a minimum punishment of ten years. The prosecutors tried to cut a deal, called plea bargain, with her. She should testify against her co-conspirators to get a lighter sentence. Not known whether she had good lawyers, and whether she understood the contractual agreement with the prosecution.

When she stood in the court to testify, one of the co-conspirators was her son. Her testimony would incriminate him. Gwen refused. The prosecution reminded her of her plea bargain obligation. She still refused. This turned out to be as serious a crime as the selling of heroine. Her co-conspirators got lower sentences than her, even those carrying guns. Gwen was not accused of any violence. She was sentenced to 400 months, which is more than 33 years in prison. Among developed nations, America has harsher sentences. It is a rare democracy that regularly executes people. In several cases, Blacks have got longer sentences than Whites for the same crime.

*****

The clemency letters were rejected in 2016. Four years had passed. Gwen’s mother had turned 94. And coronavirus entered America. Prisons were a dangerous area. Prison staff along with inmates was getting infected and dying. It was decided that 25,000 inmates would be transferred to home confinement.

Gwen Levi qualified under the CARES act. She was 75, was in cancer remission, posed no danger to anyone, her crime was non-violent, her conduct in prison was excellent, her disciplinary record spotless. In prison, she advocated for senior inmates, and trained to become a service dog handler. Her sisters were willing to accommodate her in their home. Gwen was keen to become part of society. In June 2020, she was finally going home.

She still needed to wear an ankle monitor, and give her work schedule regularly. However, she joined her sons, held her grandchildren, hugged her mother and sisters. Her bed and toilet were not in the same room any more. This is what rehabilitation was, Gwen thought.

*****

Donald Trump had shown his bloodthirstiness by executing three people during his last days despite knowing Biden intended to cancel their executions. Five days before Trump left office, his justice department issued a memo confirming that all released prisoners should be sent back to prisons when the pandemic in the USA ends. Gwen must go back to prison at some point, and serve out her remaining sentence till 2033.

*****

Out of the 25,000 prisoners sent home due to the pandemic, only 21 have violations that sent them back to prison. This is a high success rate. Male inmates who couldn’t find work are raising their children, while their wives work. Others are taking care of their parents. All of them must go back to prison, once the pandemic ends.

*****

Last month, 28 congress members urged Biden to reverse the “Trump administration’s cruel and misguided decision” saying a return to prison would harm families and waste tax dollars. People like Gwen were not told they would have to return to prison. Forcing them to do so would be cruel and devastating.

Gwen in her interview says she thought she was already rehabilitated. President Biden has a chance to prove her right.

Ravi

Corona Daily 098: The Black Blinding Fungus

India’s BBC correspondent reports on his interaction with Dr Akshay Nair, an eye surgeon from Mumbai. Yesterday, Dr Nair operated on a 25 year old girl who had recovered from covid three weeks ago. She was diabetic. The ENT specialist had inserted a tube in her nose, and was trying to remove tissues infected with mucor, a rare but deadly fungus. In the three hour surgical procedure, in order to save her life, Dr Nair had to remove her eye.

In April, Dr Nair saw forty patients with mucormycosis. Eleven of them (28%) had to have an eye removed.

*****

Mucormycosis, informally known as the Black Fungus, usually infects the sinuses and via the eyes rapidly moves to the brain. Patients typically have a stuffy and bleeding nose, swelling of and pain in the eye, drooping of eyelids, blurred vision. Black patches of skin can form around the nose. Mucor can grow behind the eye, and compress the optic nerve.

Suddenly, Indian newspapers are filled with reports of black fungus patients from around the country. The numbers are small by Indian standards, but that was the case when coronavirus started. Awareness is useful before things get out of hand.

Dr Shailesh Kolhatkar is a practising head and neck cancer surgeon in Nagpur. During the last twenty years, he operated on just 11 patients with black fungus. In the last two months, he is performing three to four surgeries every day. Similar stories are happening in several states. The Gujarat government has set up a special ward for mucormycosis, and bought 5000 vials of the expensive injection Amphotericin B for Rs 3.12 crore ($450,000). It can happen at any age, but most common is 35-65 years.

*****

Diabetic patients are in the high risk category. Mucor attacks people with uncontrolled sugar.  It rarely happens to non-diabetic patients, unless their immunity is severely compromised by AIDS or cancer.

The main reason behind a black fungus infection is man-made. Covid patients are given dexamethasone or other medicines that suppress immunity. Steroids have a tendency to increase blood sugar levels even in non-diabetics.

If such patients are exposed to wet surfaces, the chances of mucormycosis grow. Some covid patients are put on oxygen support, which has a humidifier containing water. If the water leaks from the humidifier, or general hygiene is not good, the fungus has ideal conditions to infect.

*****

This is a fast-moving disease with high mortality. It takes only a few days for the fungus to reach the brain.

If detected early, an anti-fungal intravenous injection costing $50 has to be administered daily for eight weeks. The total cost of the treatment is beyond the budget of an average Indian.

*****

In terms of prevention, doctors say it is important to keep the sinuses open. That can be done by applying steam. Diabetic covid patients should watch their sugar levels. Hygiene is important. Oxygen cylinders when required must be clean. Humidity can increase the risk. Black fungus is an invasive disease.

The most important preventive measure is to focus on the use of steroids. Some covid patients graduating from WhatsApp University are themselves opting for steroids when not necessary. The general advice is not to take steroids for the first five-six days of covid infection. Steroids should never be given in mild cases. The doses and duration of life-saving steroids must correspond to the severity of covid.

The medical community in general is trained to offer strong medical interventions. In covid times, there is little opportunity for doctors to diagnose and treat each patient individually. Indian standards seem to be more relaxed than in America and Europe. Recognising this, the Indian medical body issued altered guidelines in April. They recommend reduced uses of steroids based on the covid severity.

Not only for covid, but for any disease if, god forbid, you or your loved ones land in a hospital, you must always insist on knowing what medicines are administered. That is a patient’s right. Even for patients in the ICUs, that right should not be surrendered.

If the cure for Covid makes the patient blind, the virus can’t really be blamed for that.

Ravi   

Corona Daily 099: The Great Unwashing

As an Indian who lives in hot, humid, dirty, polluted Bombay; who gets drenched in sweat after a morning run; who after returning from a visit to the crowded vegetable market first rushes to wash up; who is among the privileged Indians to have access to water round-the-clock; I found the newspaper reports from North America and Europe shocking.

In the pandemic, people are taking fewer showers. Some Brits and Americans, displaying their names and photos in leading national newspapers, say that before the pandemic they were showering every day. Now they shower once a week.

In a major survey by the UK government, 17% of the population said it is showering less. Younger people, between 18 and 24, have a higher percentage of unwashing: 27%. In total, 28% are using less or no deodorants. 45% of generation Z and 40% of millennials are skipping deodorants. 30% of Britons are less inclined to put on fresh clothes. 25% have cut down on hair-washes. Women are delaying hair-washes twice as much as men, presumably because they have more hair to wash.

 The survey also includes stats about reduction in change of underwear and socks, but I will leave the more curious readers to probe those stats on their own.

Teenagers in America and Europe are dodging showers. After children reach a certain age, parents can’t force them to shower. Currently, that age seems to be nine.

*****

The less-washing people have made several observations. Many are happy they have one less thing to do. Ms W, 49, says she began thinking deeply about why she was showering every day before the pandemic (a truly philosophical question). Another lady, a school teacher said with British candidness that she takes a weekly shower, but washes essential parts at the sink. Her youngest kids at school would tell her if she didn’t smell good. Now they are learning remotely. Zoom hasn’t yet introduced a function where you can smell the person on screen. One man actually said he doesn’t shower until he smells.

Another person showers only when he leaves the building. In full lockdown, that person showered only once a month. He claims he started feeling grimy only after twenty-five days or so.

One interviewee says that with no one around except his flatmate, he doesn’t see the point in keeping clean.

Three in five people said they are using much less makeup in the pandemic, reducing the need for daily showers.

While reading the stories, I remembered a Swiss boy at my voluntary camp in Poland. The year was 1987, Polish summers were cooler. This boy arrived at a two week-camp only with a toothbrush. As an Indian, that was my first introduction to how customs can differ. The boy wearing the same t-shirt and shorts for a fortnight had chosen me as his roommate.

*****

Donnachadh McCarthy, 61, a Londoner, said showers are relatively new, a twentieth century phenomenon. Earlier, Britons had a bath once a week, usually on Sunday nights, and for the rest of the week washed only armpits and privates. Later, indoor plumbing improved, giving the middle class more access to running water. You were rich if you could bathe every day.

Some health experts call the daily showers aesthetic, unnecessary, commercialized by soap and shampoo companies, and even counterproductive. Washing with soap daily can strip the skin of its natural oils and leave it feeling dry.

Climate advocates love the concept of washing once a week, which they call environmentally friendly, practical and freeing. An eight minute shower uses 65 liters of water, according to the water research fund. (And a running bath ten times more).

The reduction in dating and overall sexual activity has also had its impact on the washing habits.

*****

Pandemic is clarifying which part of grooming we do for our own sake, and which for others. Men are shaving less. All are wearing formal clothes less. Women are giving up bras.

It seems, daily showering was another activity some people largely did for the sake of others.

Ravi 

Corona Daily 100: The Giving Wall

Miami is a former mining town with a population of 13,000 in Oklahoma State.

28 year old Jennifer White should be admired for her courage to open The Dawg House in September 2020, right in the middle of the pandemic. She sells hot dogs with extra meat, cheese, bacon, three-egg omelettes, and other hot meals.  

As if the coronavirus was not enough, Miami was hit with blizzards just like neighbouring Texas in February. The town was without power for a couple of days. The local mayor helped get homeless people into church shelters.

Jennifer wanted people in her community to be fed whether they had money for a meal or not. She came up with the idea of the giving wall. She put a sign near the entrance inviting her customers to buy receipts for extra meals and post the receipts on the café’s walls.

The mayor was the first to buy an extra meal and post the receipt on the wall. As the word spread, the café wall was filled with receipts within eight hours.

*****

Poor hungry people may not have money, but they have dignity.

They can simply come to the café, in an unobtrusive way pull off a receipt from the wall, sit at a table and get served a hot meal. The waiters are trained not to distinguish between guests who pay money, and those who pay with wall receipts. No questions asked. Tipping is not necessary. But some donors, who buy extra meals, attach one or two cash dollars as a tip to the prepaid receipt.

This infectious idea has spread to other towns such as Grove and Vinita in Oklahoma. Zack’s café has a notice that says: “If you are hungry or know someone who is… these tickets have been paid for in advance by previous customers. Please grab a ticket and eat!” The local church in Grove put up receipts worth $100 on the church wall.

Lasay Castellano, a nursing student who until recently worked as a manager of Zack’s café, said the diner serves about 600 people a day. She has been taping up receipts throughout the day for the last two months.

At Montana Mike’s, the general manager said she answered a call from a person from Chicago. He read the story about the giving wall, and wanted to purchase several meals and add them to the wall. He had never been to Oklahoma, but he loved the concept and wanted to be a part of it. People like him can keep the idea going, felt the manager.

In all these places, some people who were the beneficiaries of the giving wall, have now regained their lost jobs. They have come back to the same cafes, and bought an extra meal themselves.

*****

Jennifer White says among all the people who were the recipients of the free meals at The Dawg House, one family stood out. A couple and four daughters had quietly taken the receipts and sat at a table. “They were just so sweet, and their parents were beyond grateful and thankful.” Jennifer said. “They seemed like they had a lot going on and got to sit for an hour or so to just have a meal, have fun and laugh, and not worry about how much they were having to spend.”

*****

From each according to ability, to each according to need, a slogan by Karl Marx was dismissed as idealistic, impractical, and not consistent with human nature. Yesterday’s bicycle man and the giving wall stories suggest that human nature is still capable of being humane.

Ravi   

Corona Daily 101: The Bicycle Man

The elderly man wearing a cap stood outside the church – Light of the World – on Georgia Street. He looked fit and athletic for his age. It was Sunday morning and in this part of Maryland, church services were open. The churchgoers, wearing masks, and avoiding groups, were puzzled by the big sign next to him.

“Free Bikes”. Big Bikes, Little Bikes, Tricycles. All free.

People curiously looked at him, the row of bicycles next to him and wondered what sort of new scam this could be. Soon boys and girls, men and women, were seen talking to him, asking him questions. In a matter of minutes, all cycles were gone. The man adjusted his cap, and started walking home.

*****

The man’s name is Manuel Vera. He is 71, now in his fifth year of retirement. Even when he worked for a company, he loved to ride bicycles. He had taken part in triathlons and cycle races. Over the years, as is common with cycle racers, he had become a self-taught mechanic. He replaced tires, tubes, adjusted brakes, tightened cables, adjusted derailleurs and replaced shifters.

When the first lockdown started, he realized a bicycle was an ideal vehicle. (Last August, I wrote why two wheels were better in the pandemic, and also how a natural disaster had triggered the bicycle invention).

A lot of cycles must be lying idle, doing nothing, thought Manuel. Children outgrow the bicycles they ride. Adults with big houses keep buying new ones without getting rid of the old. And for many, the enthusiasm at the time of buying a bike is short lived, resulting in a decaying unused bike. In rich nations such as America; garages, sheds and basements are full of old bicycles. (In my apartment complex in Bombay, literally dozens of bicycles are parked in the courtyard, in special racks, where they rust and rot rapidly in the humidity.)

*****

Manuel started talking to his neighbours. Just like pianos, bicycles need to be tuned regularly. He said he would be happy to perform tune-ups on their bicycles. He began repairing 3-4 bikes every day. He asked the neighbours to pay for the parts to be replaced. His labour was free.

His corporate career had taught him to keep records meticulously. He tuned up 104 bicycles from his neighbourhood in the first few months.

In November, he sent a note around saying if people had any bikes that were simply taking up space; he would fix them up and give them away free. The response surprised him. He agreed with the local church to take the bikes there on Sunday mornings, and give them free to whosoever wanted.

Most recipients of the free bikes were blue collar workers, immigrants, poor teenagers, people who never thought they could afford to own a bike.

*****

In the first few months of the pandemic project, Manuel gave away 40 bicycles and spent about $300 from his pocket which he didn’t mind. Every day, he works on three or four bikes, clamped to a washing station in his backyard, before moving up to his deck to work on them. He now gets his donor bikes through a Facebook group called “Buy Nothing”. Now instead of the church, he stands outside the neighbourhood park, a location with a food pantry nearby.

He still rides, doing a 13-mile loop twice a week. Sometimes a bike passes by, and like a teacher recognizes past students, he immediately knows the bike that has passed through his hands. It was full of cobwebs, not ridden for ten years before he worked on it.

When he sees a child riding, he remembers his childhood in Peru. He remembers that moment when his father let him go. Little Manuel was surprised when he managed to balance himself on the bicycle for the first time. That moment, though some sixty-five years ago, is still fresh in his memory.

Ravi   

Corona Daily 102: Mexico’s Math Sleuths

Politicians, particularly the Presidents or Prime Ministers are rarely interested in giving accurate Covid-19 figures. High figures often reflect their handling of the pandemic. Donald Trump likely lost his presidency due to covid mismanagement. More heads will roll before the pandemic is over.

Excess mortality, the all-cause total deaths, is the tool journalists use to learn the scale of under-reporting. Last summer, BBC’s Persian service found out that Iran’s coronavirus deaths were three times the official numbers. In Nicaragua, a civic group counted 3,000 burials, when the official tally was 179. Russia classifies a death as covid only if post-mortem confirmed the virus presence. Different tricks are used to bring the real numbers down. Politicians are capable of flattening the curve for preserving their power.

*****

In Mexico, the covid mortality reports are produced, but released much later. And the daily count of deaths was always suspiciously low.

Laurianne Despeghel, 31, is an economic consultant. She graduated from the London school of Economics. Romero Zavala, 37, is a software developer. Both are fond of numbers. In May 2020, they met on WhatsApp, through a forum which was trying to track the real numbers of the covid toll in Mexico City. Both were keen to find the real picture.

In the middle of May, they got their first clue. “Mexicans against corruption and impunity”, a civic group, had obtained a set of leaked death certificates. Their authenticity was verified. The group estimated that the deaths were three times the official count.

*****

Mexico City, the capital of Mexico, has 52 civil registry offices to register death. Mexicans can simply type the number of the death certificate in the website and a copy pops up, a bit like typing a flight confirmation PNR number to get your air ticket on screen.

You need the info for each death certificate, Laurianne told Romero. Romero is an internet research fan. On a hunch, he wondered if a lazy programmer started the numbering from 1. Like lazy individuals who keep the password or pin as 1234. Surprisingly, that intuition was right. In each of the 52 registry offices, the first death certificate issued in 2020 was number 1. And the certificates were in ascending order. He simply needed to find the last number.

Romero wrote an algorithm. It would pretend to be a human asking for a copy of the death certificate. The true objective was to find the last number. Through repetitive trials (called the binary search), the algorithm found the latest certificate number for each of the 52 offices.

Romero discovered that between January and May 2020, Mexico City had 8072 excess deaths. The government had confirmed only 1832.

He did the same exercise for years 2019/2018/2017 and found that the officially reported numbers matched with the number of death certificates. What remained was replicating the method for the entire country.

*****

On 25 May, the findings were posted on a blog. That post went viral internationally. Two days later, when Romero returned to the civil registry site, he was greeted with a captcha, asking him to confirm “I’m not a robot”. The algorithm could no longer work. In subsequent months, Romero and Laurianne did their updates manually. By August, the excess deaths for the capital rose beyond 31,000. Under pressure, the city government posted in August its full database of deaths, scrubbing out the names and IDs. This would have normally taken two years.

*****

In March 2021, the federal government admitted the covid fatalities have been under-reported by at least 61%. On 29 March, the Health Ministry said the covid deaths exceeded 321,000, which at that point was second only to the USA.

Despite that, today the official figure for Mexico is only 217,000. The civil registry website is now improved. One must write the name and surname to get a copy of the certificate. The monthly updates have stopped.

Romero and Laurianne continue to look for new solutions. “I am now motivated by rage” wrote Romero on his blog post.

Ravi 

Corona Daily 103: When the Chips are Down, and a War Looms

The official name of Taiwan is the “Republic of China” (ROC). It is a relatively tiny island of 24 million, situated within breathing distance of the giant mainland, which goes by the official name of the “People’s Republic of China” (PRC).

China had a communist revolution in 1949. In the civil war, the nationalist government headed by Chiang Kai-Shek was driven to Taipei. This Chiang Kai-Shek had been declared a victor of the WWII along with Churchill, Roosevelt and Stalin. Taiwan alias ROC became a member of the United Nations, as well as the Security Council. Mainland China alias PRC was denied a seat, because there could be only one China, and that was represented by Taipei. The start of the cold war and the anti-communist feelings contributed to this bizarre turn of events. To recognize Taiwan as the successor state of China was as absurd as say terming Lithuania or Latvia as the successor of USSR after its collapse.

Communist China kept fighting to regain its deserving stature, and Americans kept obstructing the attempts as much as they could. Finally, in October 1971, UN passed a General Assembly Resolution (no. 2758) to make communist China a UN member. It was also given a seat on the Security Council. USA and a few other countries tried to retain Taiwan in the UN, but were outvoted. Taiwan was expelled from the UN, because there could be only one China. Till today, only 14 out of 193 UN members recognize Taiwan as a state. China threatens to cut diplomatic relations with any state that dares to recognize Taiwan.

***** 

Taiwan, unlike its big brother, is a democratic, prosperous country. It is aptly one of the four Asian tigers.

The Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is one of the key reasons for its prosperity. When it comes to the most advanced chips, TSMC produces 90% of them. Founded in 1987, it really took off in 2012, with its first contract to make powerful chips for the iphone. Apple got along very well with Morris Chang, the founder, whose priority was to protect trade secrets. Even casual guests to TSMC had their laptops’ USB ports sealed. Sales of 220 million iphone-6 units kick-started TSMC’s meteoric rise. In 2009, Intel owned the chip making market. By 2020, Intel was nowhere.

Last year, TSMC made an operating profit of $20 bn on revenues of $48 bn. It is now the world’s eleventh most valuable company. In 2020, 62% of its revenue came from North America and only 17% from China.

Its gap with rivals like Samsung and Intel is wide. It will spend $100 billion over the next three years on advanced technologies. Neither USA nor China can come close. Though Intel plans to make chips in Arizona, USA is inching towards $15 as its minimum wage. Taiwan’s minimum wage is $5.70. Cutting-edge chip factories (fabs) and thirty years’ experience keep TSMC far ahead of any competition.

*****

In 2019, after Apple, Huawei was TSMC’s biggest buyer. The chips sold to them were for smartphones and handset-makers like Oppo. The USA has now prohibited TSMC from supplying to Huawei. To China, this must rank as among the strangest stories related to Taiwan. It calls Taiwan its province, but the USA can forbid a Taiwanese company from supplying chips to a Chinese company.

The world can see what China is doing in Hong Kong. It would like to bring Taiwan under its wings as well. In the past, when China tried, America threatened military action. Now located next to Taiwan, China has a war fleet of 360 ships, compared with America’s 297. And China has the home advantage.

Semiconductors are the new oil. Every superpower would like to control chips. And the best way to do it is to control TSMC. Last month, newspapers were writing about a possible USA-China war over Taiwan. USA intelligence says it can happen within six years.

One hundred years ago, a pandemic followed a World War. This time, history could happen again, in reverse.

Ravi