Thursday, May 6, 2021

Corona Daily 101: The Bicycle Man


The elderly man wearing a cap stood outside the church – Light of the World – on Georgia Street. He looked fit and athletic for his age. It was Sunday morning and in this part of Maryland, church services were open. The churchgoers, wearing masks, and avoiding groups, were puzzled by the big sign next to him.

“Free Bikes”. Big Bikes, Little Bikes, Tricycles. All free.

People curiously looked at him, the row of bicycles next to him and wondered what sort of new scam this could be. Soon boys and girls, men and women, were seen talking to him, asking him questions. In a matter of minutes, all cycles were gone. The man adjusted his cap, and started walking home.

*****

The man’s name is Manuel Vera. He is 71, now in his fifth year of retirement. Even when he worked for a company, he loved to ride bicycles. He had taken part in triathlons and cycle races. Over the years, as is common with cycle racers, he had become a self-taught mechanic. He replaced tires, tubes, adjusted brakes, tightened cables, adjusted derailleurs and replaced shifters.

When the first lockdown started, he realized a bicycle was an ideal vehicle. (Last August, I wrote why two wheels were better in the pandemic, and also how a natural disaster had triggered the bicycle invention).

A lot of cycles must be lying idle, doing nothing, thought Manuel. Children outgrow the bicycles they ride. Adults with big houses keep buying new ones without getting rid of the old. And for many, the enthusiasm at the time of buying a bike is short lived, resulting in a decaying unused bike. In rich nations such as America; garages, sheds and basements are full of old bicycles. (In my apartment complex in Bombay, literally dozens of bicycles are parked in the courtyard, in special racks, where they rust and rot rapidly in the humidity.)

*****

Manuel started talking to his neighbours. Just like pianos, bicycles need to be tuned regularly. He said he would be happy to perform tune-ups on their bicycles. He began repairing 3-4 bikes every day. He asked the neighbours to pay for the parts to be replaced. His labour was free.

His corporate career had taught him to keep records meticulously. He tuned up 104 bicycles from his neighbourhood in the first few months.

In November, he sent a note around saying if people had any bikes that were simply taking up space; he would fix them up and give them away free. The response surprised him. He agreed with the local church to take the bikes there on Sunday mornings, and give them free to whosoever wanted.

Most recipients of the free bikes were blue collar workers, immigrants, poor teenagers, people who never thought they could afford to own a bike.

*****

In the first few months of the pandemic project, Manuel gave away 40 bicycles and spent about $300 from his pocket which he didn’t mind. Every day, he works on three or four bikes, clamped to a washing station in his backyard, before moving up to his deck to work on them. He now gets his donor bikes through a Facebook group called “Buy Nothing”. Now instead of the church, he stands outside the neighbourhood park, a location with a food pantry nearby.

He still rides, doing a 13-mile loop twice a week. Sometimes a bike passes by, and like a teacher recognizes past students, he immediately knows the bike that has passed through his hands. It was full of cobwebs, not ridden for ten years before he worked on it.

When he sees a child riding, he remembers his childhood in Peru. He remembers that moment when his father let him go. Little Manuel was surprised when he managed to balance himself on the bicycle for the first time. That moment, though some sixty-five years ago, is still fresh in his memory.

Ravi   

Wednesday, May 5, 2021

Corona Daily 102: Mexico’s Math Sleuths


Politicians, particularly the Presidents or Prime Ministers are rarely interested in giving accurate Covid-19 figures. High figures often reflect their handling of the pandemic. Donald Trump likely lost his presidency due to covid mismanagement. More heads will roll before the pandemic is over.

Excess mortality, the all-cause total deaths, is the tool journalists use to learn the scale of under-reporting. Last summer, BBC’s Persian service found out that Iran’s coronavirus deaths were three times the official numbers. In Nicaragua, a civic group counted 3,000 burials, when the official tally was 179. Russia classifies a death as covid only if post-mortem confirmed the virus presence. Different tricks are used to bring the real numbers down. Politicians are capable of flattening the curve for preserving their power.

*****

In Mexico, the covid mortality reports are produced, but released much later. And the daily count of deaths was always suspiciously low.

Laurianne Despeghel, 31, is an economic consultant. She graduated from the London school of Economics. Romero Zavala, 37, is a software developer. Both are fond of numbers. In May 2020, they met on WhatsApp, through a forum which was trying to track the real numbers of the covid toll in Mexico City. Both were keen to find the real picture.

In the middle of May, they got their first clue. “Mexicans against corruption and impunity”, a civic group, had obtained a set of leaked death certificates. Their authenticity was verified. The group estimated that the deaths were three times the official count.

*****

Mexico City, the capital of Mexico, has 52 civil registry offices to register death. Mexicans can simply type the number of the death certificate in the website and a copy pops up, a bit like typing a flight confirmation PNR number to get your air ticket on screen.

You need the info for each death certificate, Laurianne told Romero. Romero is an internet research fan. On a hunch, he wondered if a lazy programmer started the numbering from 1. Like lazy individuals who keep the password or pin as 1234. Surprisingly, that intuition was right. In each of the 52 registry offices, the first death certificate issued in 2020 was number 1. And the certificates were in ascending order. He simply needed to find the last number.

Romero wrote an algorithm. It would pretend to be a human asking for a copy of the death certificate. The true objective was to find the last number. Through repetitive trials (called the binary search), the algorithm found the latest certificate number for each of the 52 offices.

Romero discovered that between January and May 2020, Mexico City had 8072 excess deaths. The government had confirmed only 1832.

He did the same exercise for years 2019/2018/2017 and found that the officially reported numbers matched with the number of death certificates. What remained was replicating the method for the entire country.

*****

On 25 May, the findings were posted on a blog. That post went viral internationally. Two days later, when Romero returned to the civil registry site, he was greeted with a captcha, asking him to confirm “I’m not a robot”. The algorithm could no longer work. In subsequent months, Romero and Laurianne did their updates manually. By August, the excess deaths for the capital rose beyond 31,000. Under pressure, the city government posted in August its full database of deaths, scrubbing out the names and IDs. This would have normally taken two years.

*****

In March 2021, the federal government admitted the covid fatalities have been under-reported by at least 61%. On 29 March, the Health Ministry said the covid deaths exceeded 321,000, which at that point was second only to the USA.

Despite that, today the official figure for Mexico is only 217,000. The civil registry website is now improved. One must write the name and surname to get a copy of the certificate. The monthly updates have stopped.

Romero and Laurianne continue to look for new solutions. “I am now motivated by rage” wrote Romero on his blog post.

Ravi 

Tuesday, May 4, 2021

Corona Daily 103: When the Chips are Down, and a War Looms


The official name of Taiwan is the “Republic of China” (ROC). It is a relatively tiny island of 24 million, situated within breathing distance of the giant mainland, which goes by the official name of the “People’s Republic of China” (PRC).

China had a communist revolution in 1949. In the civil war, the nationalist government headed by Chiang Kai-Shek was driven to Taipei. This Chiang Kai-Shek had been declared a victor of the WWII along with Churchill, Roosevelt and Stalin. Taiwan alias ROC became a member of the United Nations, as well as the Security Council. Mainland China alias PRC was denied a seat, because there could be only one China, and that was represented by Taipei. The start of the cold war and the anti-communist feelings contributed to this bizarre turn of events. To recognize Taiwan as the successor state of China was as absurd as say terming Lithuania or Latvia as the successor of USSR after its collapse.

Communist China kept fighting to regain its deserving stature, and Americans kept obstructing the attempts as much as they could. Finally, in October 1971, UN passed a General Assembly Resolution (no. 2758) to make communist China a UN member. It was also given a seat on the Security Council. USA and a few other countries tried to retain Taiwan in the UN, but were outvoted. Taiwan was expelled from the UN, because there could be only one China. Till today, only 14 out of 193 UN members recognize Taiwan as a state. China threatens to cut diplomatic relations with any state that dares to recognize Taiwan.

***** 

Taiwan, unlike its big brother, is a democratic, prosperous country. It is aptly one of the four Asian tigers.

The Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is one of the key reasons for its prosperity. When it comes to the most advanced chips, TSMC produces 90% of them. Founded in 1987, it really took off in 2012, with its first contract to make powerful chips for the iphone. Apple got along very well with Morris Chang, the founder, whose priority was to protect trade secrets. Even casual guests to TSMC had their laptops’ USB ports sealed. Sales of 220 million iphone-6 units kick-started TSMC’s meteoric rise. In 2009, Intel owned the chip making market. By 2020, Intel was nowhere.

Last year, TSMC made an operating profit of $20 bn on revenues of $48 bn. It is now the world’s eleventh most valuable company. In 2020, 62% of its revenue came from North America and only 17% from China.

Its gap with rivals like Samsung and Intel is wide. It will spend $100 billion over the next three years on advanced technologies. Neither USA nor China can come close. Though Intel plans to make chips in Arizona, USA is inching towards $15 as its minimum wage. Taiwan’s minimum wage is $5.70. Cutting-edge chip factories (fabs) and thirty years’ experience keep TSMC far ahead of any competition.

*****

In 2019, after Apple, Huawei was TSMC’s biggest buyer. The chips sold to them were for smartphones and handset-makers like Oppo. The USA has now prohibited TSMC from supplying to Huawei. To China, this must rank as among the strangest stories related to Taiwan. It calls Taiwan its province, but the USA can forbid a Taiwanese company from supplying chips to a Chinese company.

The world can see what China is doing in Hong Kong. It would like to bring Taiwan under its wings as well. In the past, when China tried, America threatened military action. Now located next to Taiwan, China has a war fleet of 360 ships, compared with America’s 297. And China has the home advantage.

Semiconductors are the new oil. Every superpower would like to control chips. And the best way to do it is to control TSMC. Last month, newspapers were writing about a possible USA-China war over Taiwan. USA intelligence says it can happen within six years.

One hundred years ago, a pandemic followed a World War. This time, history could happen again, in reverse.

Ravi 

Monday, May 3, 2021

Corona Daily 104: When the Chips are Down and…


One of the biggest pandemic shortages, a supply shock, is that of the sixty year old invention – the chip, the semiconductor.

General Motors, Volkswagen and Ford have halted car production. Ford said it will produce 1.1 million fewer cars in 2021. This week Apple, Samsung and Caterpillar issued warnings that the chip shortage crisis is likely to go beyond the next year. Playstations and Xboxes are hard to find. Lead times for Broadcom Inc., which offers Wi-Fi 6E, has gone up to 22.2 weeks from 12.2 weeks in February 2020.

An analysis by Goldman Sachs shows the chip shortage touches a mindboggling 169 industries, including steel and ready mix-concrete manufacturing, air-conditioning, refrigerators, soap making and breweries. In the automotive sector, 4.7% of industry GDP is spent on microchips. What is not so widely known is that many electronic dog washing booths (like car washing automats) that use shampoo, water and fur-drying are shut for want of chips.

On 12 April, President Biden called an emergency chip summit, attended by senators from both parties, chip developers and makers.

Every smartphone, every telemedicine, every remote worker, all online education, every autonomous vehicle, every aspect of humanity is becoming more digital. The moment it becomes digital, it needs semiconductors.

*****

When the coronavirus pandemic started a year ago, it was a shock for all professional forecasters. In the heaviest lockdowns, car manufacturers predicted dramatic declines in sales. The chip manufacturers in Taiwan and South Korea reduced their production forecasts. While this was happening, suddenly the sales of smartphones and PCs shot up. By 13% as we now know. People were using more broadband, more online meetings, buying more advanced smartphones. The chips required for smart devices are modern, complex and more profitable. The manufacturers are more interested in making chips for i-phones than a Ford car.

At the end of 2020, demand for cars picked up. Probably because many people were worried about using public transport. By the time car-makers went back to the chip producers, the capacity had been diverted to smartphones. Smartphones outnumber cars by a large margin. In 2019, before the pandemic disrupted the supply dynamics, the world produced 93 million vehicles and 1.4 billion smartphones. It’s a no-brainer which customers chip-makers prefer.

Chips that may cost a dollar or so can now hold up the production of a car priced at $100,000.

*****

The 1985 James Bond movie “A View to a Kill” begins with Bond going to Siberia to recover a Soviet microchip. The Bond villain in that movie plans to detonate explosives beneath the Californian lakes to cause floods that will submerge Silicon Valley forever. The prescient chip-centric plot also includes blowing up of an atomic weapon in space to disable chips in everything. If succeeded, the plot would stop everything from the modern toaster to the most sophisticated computer (as understood in 1985). Of course, Bond foils the plot and saves the world.

The importance of chips was known to villains even in 1985.

*****

The most complex and expensive chips are logic chips from Qualcomm, Nvidia or Apple. These companies don’t operate fabrication plants (fabs) or foundries to make the chips. Intel (inside) and AMD, two of the best known names in the semiconductor industries, are also the developers, not necessarily the makers. Taiwan makes chips for all these companies.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) and Samsung Electronics are the duopolists. Situated in Asia, they make nearly 80% of all the chips in the world. This makes the Americans very uncomfortable. That is why Joe Biden talked about supporting the “CHIPS for America program”. Intel now wants to start manufacturing chips in Arizona.

The world is going to become smarter and smarter. Electric cars are far more reliant on chips. The chip shortage and the geographic imbalance may result in something far more serious. Why? I will explain it tomorrow.

Ravi 

Sunday, May 2, 2021

Corona Daily 105: Time Capsule: Return to Office


The United States of America is planning to get its workers back in offices soon. Goldman Sachs and Amazon expect the office staff back from 1 July. Ernst & Young has already called them in. As per data released on 29 March, 24.2% staff in ten big American cities has returned to the office. Difficult to say if this post-vaccination euphoria is premature. Time will tell.

Employees, by now accustomed to getting up from bed and going over to the computer, not having to iron their clothes, not worried about commuting, will need to re-adjust to the new old life. The white collars who have resumed work still find old social distancing and traffic flow signs lingering in the office building corridors.

Brittany Dales, 27, a legal secretary returned to her Californian law firm recently. One of the attorneys started talking to her, the printer was running, and there was office noise in the background. Brittany couldn’t focus, because she had grown accustomed to working in a quiet place for a year. Even a little bit of noise, not too loud, felt unbearable.

*****  

Maura Judkis, a features reporter for the Washington Post, this week describes the reactions of different employees returning to work for the first time.

Ellery Frahm is an archaeologist who studies artifacts from nearly 500,000 years of human history. When he reached his desk in his Yale University office, he found a phone number written in his own hand in March 2020. Just a number with no name. He tried hard to remember whose it could be and why he wrote it. He could have called the number and tried to find out, but he felt awkward after a year’s gap. Maybe the other side also wouldn’t remember what the whole thing was about.

Vanessa Jae, 25, from Sterling Heights, Michigan was a little shaken when she saw that her wall calendar was showing March 2020. When she left office in March 2020, she had expected to be out for two weeks, not thirteen months. Papers were still spread out on desks. On the side table, the coffee pots still had coffee inside. Next to them was a half-finished bag of chips.

*****

Tim Halbach, 41, a meteorologist working for the National Weather Service had visited his office last time in October. In March, back in office, he went to the fridge in the office pantry. He wanted to put his turkey sandwich in the usual place, the back corner of the top shelf. He was stunned to see a Turkey sandwich was already there. It was his five-month-old sandwich. He had forgotten about it. The two sandwiches looked identical. The five month old sandwich showed no signs of decay. It bothered him as to why no rot was visible on the old sandwich.

*****

Some people opt to call the offices they re-visit time capsules. A massive event has separated the office workers from their own past.

Ralph Esperas, 33, a marketing coordinator from an Arizona company was overwhelmed by a sense of sadness on seeing his dusty desk. It made him think of the lost time and lost lives.

In most offices, the un-watered and un-cared for plants have died.  

Alex Grimaudo is a graduate student at Virginia Tech. During lockdowns, he couldn’t complete his fieldwork, and was forced to change his entire dissertation. When he saw his jacket hung on his chair, the coffee mug in its place surrounded by his old papers, he felt he had walked into a personal museum.

*****

The scene in the office reminded Ellery Frahm, the archeologist, of Pompeii, the city frozen in time in 79 AD. That year Mount Vesuvius erupted and buried the city in volcanic ash. Fleeing residents had left their bread in the ovens, their shops were later found mostly intact. In a recent excavation study, much tangible evidence of daily life was found in that place.

If you are an office worker returning to your desk after months, you are likely to feel like those archeologists.

Ravi                    

Saturday, May 1, 2021

Corona Daily 106: Does Your Doctor Speak in Your Language?


Lourdes Cerna, 58, goes to her desk in the living room at 5 am with a hot mug of tea. She lives in Los Angeles. As soon as she logs in, the calls start. That day, the first call is from Texas. The doctor on the other side speaks about the lady patient who is struggling to breathe.

Please tell her if she doesn’t agree to go on a ventilator, she will not survive the day, says the doctor. Cerna faithfully translates it in Spanish. You may use your own words, the doctor says. Cerna asks the lady about her family, and tells her that her grandchildren will be happy to see her back. The lady is determined. This is the end; she doesn’t wish to go back. Cerna says bye to her, translates everything to the doctor. Moves to the next call in line.

Cerna is a professional medical interpreter. Before the pandemic, she would be in the hospital room talking face-to-face with a patient. She misses it now. But for a whole year, she has been working fifteen hours a day. USA’s different time zones make the working day longer. For many patients, she was the last person they spoke to. She also often needed to call the relatives to deliver the worst possible news.

Professional interpreters are expected to do their job keeping emotions aside. But Cerna has a handkerchief and a bottle of solution to clean her glasses next to the computer. There have been dozens of days at the end of which she sat there drained, crying alone.

*****

Dr Alister Martin faced his patient, a Hispanic man who spoke no English. Speaking clearly, he told him he would be intubated. He asked the patient, a bus driver and a father of three, to call his wife, give her his love and say goodbye. Then Dr Martin held the phone closer to the patient’s ear. The interpreter translated everything Dr Martin had just said.

At the Boston hospital, the quality of care for non-English speaking patients has deteriorated. “Someone’s oxygen is dropping, I have to get an interpreter on the phone, put in an access code, tell them where I am.” Dr Martin said. “It’s hard for the patient. Imagine you’re in a loud room with a mask blowing oxygen in your face at fifteen liters a minute and you feel crummy. You can’t comprehend things much.”

Normally, non-English speakers have some family members who can speak English. They hold hands, help with translation. But in covid times, family visits are barred.

*****

In nations with a single language, this problem rarely arises. But in countries such as the USA or Canada or Australia, with a large number of immigrants, not having a common language with the doctor or nurse can spell the difference between life and death. USA has 65 million people who speak limited English. The language discordance undermines communication and trust, and leads to suboptimal care, less understanding of the diseases and treatments, and difficulties in joint decision making. Patients end up staying longer at the hospital, and more likely to return there.

In a detailed study one hospital found something shocking. Even among the Hispanic covid patients, those speaking only Spanish had a 35% greater risk of death.

*****

USA has a legal requirement to have medical interpreters. But it is what is called an “unfunded mandate”. The certification is not strict, and remuneration is not specified. Once the pandemic began, the role of medical interpreters was so underestimated that initially no PPEs were ordered for them. Many of them now work from home, like Lourdes Cerna does. It’s not easy, because many patients are breathing with effort, coughing or their voices are muffled. Richer hospitals are trying to get i-pads and microphones for the patients. Some hospitals are consciously employing Spanish speaking doctors to attach to each medical team.

The relatively lucky patients speak their last words to the interpreter on an i-pad in their own language before dying. Others who have no common language with the attending doctors die silently.

Ravi 

Friday, April 30, 2021

Corona Daily 107: Love Stories Never End


New Jersey was under a strict lockdown. Bill lived on the second floor. Iris lived a floor above him. They started sneaking into each other’s apartments. Sometimes Bill would climb a floor. Or Iris came down to his apartment. They knew visiting someone in another house was prohibited. But they took the risk any way.

Finally, one day, the security guard caught Bill on the staircase. This is not on. Everyone on the floor knows what is going on. You can either live apart or live together, you make up your mind now, or I will have to report you, the guard said.

An upset Bill went back to his apartment and called Iris over the phone. He narrated the encounter with the security guard. They talked for a while. Both knew there was only one solution. Iris packed her suitcase, took her toothbrush and moved into Bill’s apartment.

This week, they completed a year of living together.

“Their story is the rose that grew through the pavement during a difficult time” Keith Grady, the executive director of their apartment complex said. “Bill and Iris have no inhibitions, and they are always up for fun.”

*****

In July this year, Bill Biega will turn 99. Iris Ivers is a younger 91. Iris had become a widow in 2001, and had moved to the Applewood retirement community a few years earlier. Bill lost his wife in 2019 after 75 years of marriage. That was when he moved to Applewood. The two had been part of a bridge playing group earlier, but got to know each other better only at Applewood.

They found they shared a love for reading, walking, concerts and enjoying a cocktail before dinner. Iris said she found Bill to be a demonstrative, warm and loving person. And he made great Bloody Marys. Bill said he was captivated by her gorgeous smile and young attitude.

He felt like a college guy sneaking into the women’s dorm, Bill said with a laugh.

*****

Iris grew up in New York’s Schenectady, close to Albany. She graduated from Cornell University and moved with her family to New York City. She enjoyed a 25-year career with a magazine, retiring as the deputy copy chief editor.

Bill grew up in Poland. He was one of the last survivors of the 1944 Warsaw uprising, in which the Poles tried to drive out the Nazis. Bill was one of the leaders of the Polish underground resistance and spent six months in a German hospital camp after being wounded. He had a career as an engineer and global sales executive after moving to the USA.

“I survived all of that, had a very successful life, and can still walk and swim a few months before I’ll turn 99.” Bill said. “I know that I’m an extremely lucky man.”

That lucky streak continued with finding Iris in this late chapter of his life. Now they are both fully vaccinated, the lockdown is over; Bill has convinced Iris to join him in the pool for regular swims.

*****


Will the two tie the knot; the curious journalist asked the inevitable question.

The two shook their heads.

“When you’ve lived as long as we have, there’s no reason to get married,” Bill said. “After all we do live in the twenty-first century”.

Iris said they wouldn’t like Bill’s five children (most of them in their seventies), and her two children go through the stress of a “late-late-late-in-life” wedding of their parents. “What would be the point in that?”She said. “We are enjoying things as they are.”

“It’s never too late to have a love life.” Bill added.

*****

Ravi 

Thursday, April 29, 2021

Corona Daily 108: India’s Virus Surveillance: An Unfunded Story


Earlier, in the UK context, I wrote about the criticality of genomic surveillance. Identifying and quantifying each virus avatar is a key weapon in the coronavirus war. Without the virus gene sequences, vaccines were not possible.

India has a human talent pool that is among the best in the world. At least ten major labs can conduct genome detective work. On 12 May 2020, during the national lockdown, PM Modi appealed to Indians to become self reliant. In this age of globalization, talking about self-reliance is illiteracy; displayed time and again by the likes of Trump and Modi. Talking about self-reliance during a pandemic is lunacy.

Within three days, the order issued by India’s Finance Ministry referred to that speech. “In  pursuance of the Prime Minister’s address to the nation… in order to prove self-reliance…it has been decided no tender up to Rs 200 crore ($27 million) will be allowed.” The order became effective immediately, with no notice period.

*****

Labs analysing positive samples use specialised plastic containers and reagents, both imported from American companies such as Illumina. There are no Indian substitutes. The order banning tenders below Rs 200 crore brought to a halt most sequencing by September 2020. All labs ran out of reagents. The labs complained to the Ministry of Finance. The ministry finally exempted the labs in January 2021. Eight valuable months were wasted by a single piece of thoughtless paper.

*****

In December 2020, a welcome initiative brought India’s ten major labs together in a consortium with an unwieldy name INSACOG (Indian SARS-CoV-2 Genomics consortium). Detailed 18-page guidelines were issued.

The consortium had three ambitious goals: (a) Mapping the spread of the UK variant across India (b) Investigating regional outbreaks for early detection of new variants. (c) Continuous surveillance program to sequence 5% of all positive samples across India+100% of all positive samples of international arrivals.  

The analysis on positive samples would be conducted with retrospective effect. Rs 115 crore ($16 million) funding was promised. It was a well-conceived initiative.  

***** 

Positive samples must be sent by the testing labs to one of the consortium labs. The samples need to be preserved at temperatures between -80 and -20. Many labs had destroyed the past samples. The consortium would accept only RT-PCR tests. Many states had conducted large scale antigen tests that didn’t qualify. By February, the consortium should have investigated 45,000 samples, it managed 3,500.

Sanctioned money doesn’t mean real money. Part of the money, Rs 80 crore was finally released on 31 March, the last day of the Indian financial year.

*****

The maximum capacity of the ten labs is 1,000 samples a day. In reality, they analysed about 100 a day. Today, India has 380,000 new cases. To keep the 5% mission of the consortium, it should analyse 19,000 samples today. But the maximum capacity is 1000 samples a day. In effect, the mission works only if the number of cases is low. India produces 2 million vaccines a day, but aims to vaccinate 4 million people daily. The case of the genomic surveillance is similar.

There has been talk about the Indian variant, a double mutant, a triple mutant. Data based on small samples is not reliable. And detective work must be accompanied by police action. The double mutant variant was detected in October 2020. It was found again in November and December. That discovery needed urgent action. By February, that variant exploded, causing a surge in Maharashtra state.

Competent genomic surveillance can track the effects of superspreader events. Wide-ranging genomic analysis could have verified and quantified the impact of the Kumbh Mela and election rallies. Instead, Indians are left with anecdotal evidence of obituaries of people returning from such events.

*****

Within less than a year of its self-reliance resolve, India is now looking in all directions for oxygen and other help. If the rich nations want to offer help, they should consider funding India’s genomic surveillance labs to ramp up their capacity. A large scale genome analysis in India is a global, not local, necessity.  

Ravi 

Wednesday, April 28, 2021

Corona Daily 109: French Humour


Last few weeks, Jean Castex, the Prime Minister of France has been getting ladies’ underwear by mail every day. Not just that, each sender shares a photo on social media, accompanied with a screenshot of a letter explaining their low-down act. Castex has already received more than two hundred lacy and non lacy panties.

*****

France is currently in its third nationwide lockdown. The earlier lockdowns were so strict; a Frenchman wishing to leave the house had to fill a two-page, widely infamous, “attestation”. It was denounced as a multiple choice quiz by a senator. The convoluted language made the applicants look online for the meaning of some French words. To go jogging, one had to specify the starting point, the route, state the time, and give a reason for jogging. After filling the form online, one waited for the ministry to approve, and then either print the permission or take it on your smart phone.

A month ago, the French parliament debated the linguistic nuances of the word confinement (lockdown). If people are allowed to go out, can it really be a lockdown? Someone suggested lockdown light (like Marlboro lights). Finally they called it confinement partiel, where several concessions would be offered.

In the third lockdown, the French are allowed to walk their dog, with 1 km as the maximum radius. But with their children, the radius is 10 km. Fairly generous, because from Paris center, you will go out of Paris if you try to cover 10 km. However, this is applicable only if you are a local with an address proof. If not, you fill the multi-quiz form before stepping out.

E-cigarette sellers, video game parlours and chocolate shops are open. But shoe shops, beauty salons, cloth stores and departmental stores are shut. Wisely, since the shoe shops are shut, shoe repair shops are allowed to operate.

Earlier, France had a 12 hour lockdown (6am-6 pm) followed by 12 hours of curfew (6pm-6am). In the third lockdown, one extra lockdown hour is granted to people, the curfew now begins at 7 pm.

*****

Roger Cohen, a NYT reporter in Paris describes his visit to Castorama to buy a desk lamp. Castorama is open under the lockdown laws, because its surface area is below 100,000 sq feet. But different sections are closed by red-and-white tapes like a police barricade. Because inside the hypermarket, only essential goods can be sold. Mr Cohen could buy toasters or pans of hundreds of varieties, any home stereo equipment, but not a desk lamp. At Boulanger, an electronics store, vacuum cleaners could be sold, but not refrigerators or stoves.

Florists are open, and kitchenware stores shut. Bookstores are open in the third lockdown, although they were susceptible to virus in the first. Frozen goods shops are open, but not gift shops.

When Mr Cohen asked in the shop why a desk lamp was considered non-essential, the salesman said he didn’t know. “But, of course, you can use a candle”, he said helpfully.

*****

Camille Chaize, the interior ministry spokeswoman, admitted the documents and rules were complex, but they were self-explanatory. One kilometer was plainly the radius in which a dog urinates, ask animal experts.

Hairdressers are now essential to boost the morale of the French people. Florists are now allowed because half of their business takes place in spring. And chocolate shops are obviously open for the Easter holidays (which are not exactly holidays). The nationwide curfew was reduced by an hour because of the clocks springing forward for summertime.

*****

Lingerie stores were classified as non-essential businesses. All underwear shops were ordered shut to reduce the transmission of covid-19. Angered by the regulation, the lingerie shop-owners decided to send underwear to the PM. “Florists, bookshops, hairdressers and record shops are essential. What about underwear?” The group asked. “Isn’t it a question of hygiene and protection? Isn’t it the first thing we put on in the morning to get dressed?”

France will review the lockdown regulations on 3 May. The French PM may consider making lingerie essential in the new regulations.

Ravi 

Tuesday, April 27, 2021

Corona Daily 110: Covid Compliance Officer (C19CO)


You probably didn’t watch the Oscar ceremony two days ago; it was the least viewed Oscar telecast in history. Oscars had appointed a ‘head of covid compliance’ - Dr Erin Bromage, professor of immunology. Instead of the Dolby Theater, the ceremony was held at the spacious Los Angeles Union (Railway) station. Vaccinated guests sat mask-less at widely spaced tables.

The protocol allowed a shorter quarantine for those who flew in by first or business class. All guests and presenters were given at-home testing kits. In all 15000 rapid tests were conducted, and vaccinations verified.

The “red carpet” was tiny. Winners walked a few steps to a small dais. Songs were not live, but pre-show, not part of the ceremony itself.

*****

This article is not about the Academy awards but a new job that has emerged in the pandemic: Covid Compliance Officer (technically C19CO. Sounds a bit like a virus variant). CCO is the new gatekeeper, the watchdog on film sets, events, festivals, offices, sport tournaments, clubs or universities.

Dr Linda Dahl is an ear, nose and throat surgeon. In June 2020, lockdowns forced her to shut her practice. Unemployed, a friend asked her if she would like to be a CCO for a TV production. Linda said no, and later took the job, because the studio didn’t find anyone else.

The TV production had a 300 person cast-crew. She began waking up at 4 am to check the PCR test results. If somebody was positive, it was her responsibility to contact trace and isolate the crew. Linda disapproved of the “covid theatre” that includes rapid tests, temperature screening and plastic dividers (called split bubbles) in the makeup and catering department. She insists consistent PCR testing and ventilation are the most critical. Temperature checking and wiping the doorknobs give the appearance of doing the right thing, but good filtration and ventilation actually mitigate risk.

In sports tournaments (like the current Indian cricket league) all the players are in a bubble. But in this TV production, people went home, and then the Covid Compliance officer had no control over what they did.

The budget for Covid compliance is high, 25-30% of the total budget. Linda was getting pitches for covid sniffer dogs and six-figure thermal scanners.

At Kaufman Astoria Studios, a crew member was carrying a birthday cake for his colleague. “You can’t eat it here” Linda had to say firmly. She also prohibited blowing candles or singing the birthday song. Instead people clapped.

She and other CCOs get various nicknames: covid cop, social distance nazi, quarantine queen.

*****

The CCOs must absorb ever changing guidance from the health authorities. New York state’s quarantine changed from zero to 14 days, and then to 7 days. One CCO warns: Our guidance today is not the same as our guidance tomorrow.

CCOs have the power to cancel a show or shooting. Orchestra vocalists and wind instrumentalists are given brown paper bags to put their masks in while performing. Breaking of any protocol as simple as this can result in a cancellation of a concert. 

*****

CCOs don’t need to be doctors. Some of them are from the relevant industry. Online courses ($50) for two hours give you a certificate, but there is no official accreditation. Erica DeSimone, an event producer, worked as a CCO on a set in New Jersey.

Erica sat on every pre-production meeting. She was always first on set, ensured rapid testing, marking the floors for distance, checked food was individually packed. For the next 12 hours, she walked on the set repeating three mantras: (a) Please put your mask above your nose. (b) Please step further apart. (c) How did you sneak that water bottle here?

She had assistants with super soaker squirt guns full of hand sanitiser. They walked about cleaning tables, chairs and communal areas. And the bathroom every time someone visited it.

Before taking part, all actors and crew have to sign a waiver saying they won’t sue the producer if they get Covid. So, there is a grudging respect for the job the CCO does.

Ravi