Corona Daily 159: The Emergent Story: Part One

Tomorrow, on 10 March, the US president Joe Biden was scheduled to visit Baltimore. A company called “Emergent BioSolutions” has started producing the J&J and AstraZeneca vaccines in its Baltimore factory. Emergent promises to produce one billion doses a year. Biden planned to tour the factory tomorrow.

The visit was announced last Friday. Yesterday, it was cancelled.

******

Because on the weekend the New York Times published a story about Emergent. The story is big, and may be turned into a novel/movie in the future.

The story surprisingly begins with Bill Clinton reading a thriller in 1998. Clinton himself has written two thrillers in collaboration with James Patterson. (His second novel The President’s Daughter will be published in June this year.) In 1998, he read The Cobra Event by Richard Preston. A mad scientist cum bioterrorist creates a virus named Cobra and launches it on New York City. Such stories are nightmares for sitting presidents.

Until then, the USA had an emergency healthcare stockpile for military personnel, but not for civilians. It would be great for America’s preparedness to have a stockpile of masks, ventilators, PPEs, drugs, vaccines that can immediately respond to a man-made or natural crisis. This project eventually took the shape of the Strategic National Stockpile (SNS). If a year ago, the stockpile mechanism had functioned as it was supposed to, the USA could have had enough masks, protective gear, and ventilators and a few thousand lives could have been saved.

*****

Those old enough to remember 11 September 2001 may also recall the Anthrax bioterror attack that soon followed it. Media offices and a few senators received the anthrax virus by post. The packages killed five and infected seventeen people. Coming so soon after 9/11, the bioterror attempt terrified the nation and some senators became paranoid about opening their postal packages. It must be noted this was the last Anthrax incident in the USA.

Emergent BioSolutions became the sole company to supply anthrax vaccines to the US government.

*****

In 2020, at the beginning of the pandemic, US health workers didn’t have enough masks or protective gear. Some of them substituted trash bags for masks. State governors were screaming for ventilators. The pandemic has so far claimed more than half a million Americans.

While this was happening, the US government paid $626 million to Emergent for anthrax vaccines.

*****

The Stockpile and its twelve locations are a secret. The US government contracts with companies such as Emergent are also secret. The volumes, value or inventory are not in the public domain.

The New York Times investigative journalists studied 40,000 documents and talked to more than sixty people with inside knowledge of the stockpile.

In 2015, the US government had approved a plan to buy tens of millions of N95 respirators, lifesaving equipment for doctors and nurses. But there was no money for it. Already Emergent was paid more than $1 billion for anthrax and smallpox vaccines.

Emergent has only a single customer. The US government. And US government has agreed to keep buying Anthrax vaccines only from one supplier. Emergent. This monogamous relationship has allowed Emergent to increase their demands every year. It insists the government must increase investment to keep it safe from terrorists. If-you-don’t-invest-more-we-will-go-bankrupt is one of the negotiation tactics they use. When threatened, the government has obliged by paying them $100 million more.

In 2016, the stockpile already had enough doses to vaccinate 10 million people against anthrax. Anthrax is not infectious; it doesn’t spread like covid. Since 2012, not a single intelligence report mentions anthrax as a possible threat. The risk is possible, but not large enough to have an emergency stockpile filled with nothing but anthrax vaccines.

*****

2020 was the strongest and most profitable year in Emergent’s history – thanks to the anthrax and smallpox vaccines. Last month, the founder and the chairman cashed in their shares and options worth $42 million. Since then, the share price fell by 30%.

*****

(continued tomorrow)

Ravi 

Corona Daily 160: Girls not Brides

There is no joy in reading the UNICEF report published this morning to coincide with International Women’s Day. The report describes the huge threat posed by Covid-19 to wipe out the progress made in fighting girl child marriage.

Worldwide, 650 million girls and women are married while underage. The UN definition includes both formal and informal child marriages. In many countries, underage marriages are illegal, but they still happen without being registered. An unregistered marriage of a minor girl equally damages her life. Each year, about 12 million minor girls get married. These five leading countries account for more than half of them: India, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Ethiopia and Brazil.

Worldwide efforts on several fronts had reduced the numbers by some 15%. In the last decade, an estimated 25 million girls were saved from premature marriages. A single year of the pandemic has changed all that. Now it is feared we will see an additional 10 million child brides in the next ten years.

*****

An underage girl thrust into a marriage is robbed of her childhood. Her education stops. She starts living in a family of strangers. Traditional families expect her not to work outside the home. There is family pressure and societal expectation for her to get pregnant. She is neither physically nor mentally mature. In developing countries, many young girls die of pregnancy complications or during childbirth. If she survives the childbirth, housework and children become her function in life. This allows patriarchal societies to perpetuate the gender imbalance and remain backward.

The same girl, by postponing marriage for another ten years, can graduate, become employable for a decent job, be financially and psychologically independent, and able to control her life and maternity better.

*****

Covid-19 has shaken the life of a child girl more than we can imagine.

School closures are perhaps the biggest factor. In many developing countries, schools provided meals and security. Maharashtra, the Indian state I live in, provides free education to girls until 18 years of age. Uninterrupted education is a major tool for women empowerment. Some schools also provide sanitary products. Their supply became unreliable during the pandemic. Even in richer countries like Australia and Ireland, women reported price rises and shortages.

Economic shocks have contributed. Poor people have lost jobs, and must feed children who would have received meals at schools. For these families, education and marriage compete, rather than complement. It is convenient to give off the daughter and reduce the burden. With girls not going to school, the risk of sexual violence is high. S0me parents arrange a daughter’s marriage in the belief it will protect her from violence from other men in the community. In countries like India, where weddings are expensive, dowry is prevalent, parents are taking advantage of lockdowns to arrange an economical wedding and avail dowry discounts. In the marriage market, the younger the bride, the lesser the dowry.

Support services are interrupted. Several helplines and support centers normally exist to prevent child marriages, to counsel the girls about contraception and pregnancy, to dissuade parents from giving away their minor daughter, offer financial support. In the lockdown, many such services were inaccessible. Schools were often a good mediating point. Contraception supplies became erratic. Unwanted teen pregnancies sometimes translated into unwanted marriages.

*****

India has done good work in the last few decades in terms of incentivizing parents who keep their daughters in education, starting helplines for girls, running awareness campaigns. In many families, tradition is still stronger than the law. Every year 1.5 million underage Indian girls are thrown into a marriage. In the pandemic, reports say there are instances of 12/13-year-old girls marrying.

India and all developing countries in Asia and Africa should focus on reopening schools. Immediately. They have been shut for nearly a year now. The virus damage as a result of schools reopening can’t be worse than a child marriage. Because nothing can be worse than a child bride.

Ravi   

Corona Daily 161: A Bright Orange Label 139

Christians, Muslims and Jews generally bury their dead, Hindus and Buddhists cremate them. A rumour says the resurrection of Jesus Christ provoked burials, with every Christian hoping to emulate the feat of Jesus. A more likely explanation is a practical one. When space for the living is limited, they can’t keep sharing it with coffins and tombstones. In China, since 2016, “vertical” burials are encouraged to save space. No Resting In Peace, I don’t think. Indian churches usually shift the bones to a pit after 2-3 years to make space. An Indian court has recommended building multi-story graveyards. In the pandemic, since March 2020, Sri Lanka forced Muslims and Christians to cremate. WHO has clarified burials of virus positive bodies don’t really pose a risk. After domestic outrage and international criticism, Sri Lanka amended the law last week to allow burials.

***** 

In the USA, many families are dispersed. Some have attended funerals on zoom, memorial services have been delayed or cancelled. In 2020, more than 3.2 million Americans died, an all-time record. Unusually, more than half were cremated. (In 1960, only 4% were cremated).  

USPS, the official federal service is the only post allowed to send the “cremated remains”. The box carries a bright orange sticker, with Label 139 printed on it. Label 139 increases visibility during processing and transportation. A sealable plastic bag, bubble wrap and cardboard box is the special kit for human ashes. Sent by priority express mail, it requires a signature before the box is handed over. It would be too cruel to come back home, and find cremated remains in the post-box.

Though it is ‘priority express’ mail, Americans are facing inordinate delays. The USPS website warns about delays because of the sheer volume. One Charlotte man lost his mother in September. This was followed by lockdowns and winter storms. Then he lost his mother again, when the post misplaced the box. He finally received it a week ago. In some cases, people have received wrong boxes. Apparently, after cremation due to its high temperature burning, DNA testing can’t tell whose ashes are in the box. At an additional cost, one can ask for a witness cremation, where the tag and the loved one are identified before going to the cremation chamber.

Stan Reese, 56, has started a new business called “Eternal Alaska”. He personally collects ashes, and hand carries them to scenic places. On a video call, he scatters them for the relatives to see.

*****

Finances play a role. Casket and a cemetery plot are prohibitively expensive for many. Cost of dying keeps going up as well. An average funeral in the USA costs $9000. After housing and car, death care services are said to be the third costliest expense in life (or afterlife). Funeral poverty is a term increasingly used in pandemic times. The US government has set aside $2 billion to help with funeral costs. It promises to reimburse up to $7000.

Cremation, on the other hand, is simple and inexpensive. Unlike a buried body, ashes are portable (can be sent by post), divisible, and easily scattered.

American people who were married a few times, often request to divide their ashes and give equal share to each spouse. (When the spouses die, in ash form, they can be united with each of them). Parents’ ashes are usually divided when given to children.

Many cities have created scattering gardens. In particular, ashes are scattered in the garden which was the favorite of the departed soul. Boat owners ferry families three miles off shore (requirement of the environment protection agency) in case they wish to immerse ashes in a river or sea. In view of the shift to cremations, cemeteries are now planning to build more columbarium, structures with individual niches for a person’s ashes. Designers are developing new urns made of classic Carrara marble boxes or other custom-made designs.

With the post office delivering cremated remains (called cremains), the cremation stigma doesn’t exist any more. The shape of the post-pandemic world for the living is hard to predict. For the dead, though, it looks like cremation would become the first choice.

Ravi 

Corona Daily 162: Your Car is not Safe

Last month, Michael Kevane, an economics professor living in San Jose, California, parked his 2005 Prius out on the driveway. Next morning, when his son went to start it up, it sounded like a drilling machine. All the neighbours in the block could hear it. Two days later, the professor’s sister Jean, who lives in Los Angeles, had an identical experience with her 2003 Honda Accord LX. This can’t be a coincidence, thought Michael Kevane.

In another American state, Minneapolis, Andrew Reichenbach’s repair shop has had three Mitsubishis come in with their exhaust pipes sawed off. In recent months, dozens of cars were landing at the repair shop with the same limb missing. Mitsubishis seem to be the new target, said Reichenbach. He called it a pandemic within a pandemic.

This international crime wave is reported in the USA, Europe, UK, India and other places. The cars’ catalytic converters are being stolen.

*****

Catalytic converter is the exhaust emission control device.  It reduces toxic gasses and pollutants. America, Europe, Asia and China keep on raising emission standards.

This device is located under your car. A professional thief can unscrew the device in minutes, and take it away. But most thieves in pandemic times are not professionals. They come with a pipe-cutter or a saw and while cutting the converter also cause much damage to other car components, such as the alternator, wiring or fuel lines.

What is so attractive about Catalytic converters right now?

*****

They have a mix of precious metals such as platinum, palladium and rhodium. Except those with PhDs in chemistry, few would have heard of Rhodium (Rh).

Rhodium (meaning rose in Greek) is a silvery-white material, mainly used in the automobile industry. It is the best-known metal to remove the most toxic pollutants from the vehicle exhaust. As regulations on emissions become stricter, the demand for rhodium grows.

Rhodium’s price in August 2016 was $625 an ounce. Today, it has skyrocketed to $29,000 per ounce. (Making it 17 times more expensive than Gold, which is $1700 an ounce). Since the start of the pandemic, it is steadily climbing, making our cars (or rather one of their components) more expensive. And accordingly, prone to be stolen.

Why is the Rhodium price rising, and will it come down?

*****

South Africa is the key producer of Rhodium. If their mines were to produce more Rhodium, the prices can come down. But they won’t. Because Rhodium is not produced by itself, it is a byproduct. Each unit of ore mined typically contains 60% platinum, 30% palladium and 8% rhodium. Unless platinum is mined, rhodium can’t be produced. And currently platinum and palladium suffer from excessive supply. Rhodium shortages are estimated to be over 150,000 ounces, and expected to grow until a substitute is found or vehicles switch over to electric. The price is expected to keep rising till 2025. The risk to our cars as well.

*****

Since 2020, many thieves have become unemployed, and some unemployed have become thieves. Pockets are more difficult to pick in lockdown times. Cars are stationary, and some thefts are not noticed for weeks. Law enforcement is slack. A few minutes’ work under the car can fetch you over $500. The thief sells the anonymous converter in the black market, the scrapyard sells it to recyclers who extract the metals. Older cars tend to contain more of the precious metals than newer ones. Hybrid cars (using a combination of petrol/diesel and electric) contain more precious metals. Honda Jazz, Toyota Prius, Toyota Auris, Lexus RX and Mitsubishi are some of the reported popular models.

*****

Because no other party is involved, like in an accident, insurance generally doesn’t cover this theft. The car owner loses about $2000. It is important to park your car in secured places, and get effective alarms. If you see someone suspiciously under any vehicle, call the police.

Though they are not PhDs in chemistry or MBAs in finance, thieves worldwide have learnt to keep an eye on the price of Rhodium.

Ravi 

Corona Daily 163: The Pope in Iraq

Pope Francis arrived in Iraq today for a three-day visit.

The coronavirus cases in Iraq have surged from eight hundred a day in January to five thousand a day now. Vatican’s ambassador in Iraq, Mitja Leskovar, has tested positive, and won’t be allowed to see the Pope. On Wednesday, there were rocket attacks, including one near Erbil airport, where the Pope will arrive on Sunday. The US embassy in Iraq issued a warning today to American citizens: “Attacks may occur with little or no warning, impacting airports, tourist locations, transportation hubs, markets/shopping malls, and local government facilities.” Not known whether the warning had anything to do with the papal visit.

*****

In July 2019, Iraq’s president Barham Salih had invited Pope Francis. Then the pandemic happened, and the Pope went into a year-long isolation. The invitation must have been open-ended.

In 2000, Pope John Paul II sought to make a pilgrimage to Iraq. But negotiations with Saddam Hussein’s government failed. John Paul wept, according to Pope Francis. Benedict XVI was invited in 2008, but having no suicidal tendencies, he didn’t visit in the middle of a war.

Pope Francis said he didn’t want to disappoint the Iraqi people. He was perhaps emboldened by the two Pfizer shots he received. His entourage is vaccinated as well. Iraq hasn’t yet got any vaccines.

Today, he became the first Pope to visit Iraq. More than 1000 Christians and 2000 Muslims received him at the airport. Baghdad roads were cleaned and full of roses. Curfew was in place anyway for coronavirus. Large posters of the slain commander Qassim Soleimani and Iraqi militia leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandid have been temporarily replaced by the smiling photos of Pope Francis. Pope Francis left the airport in a bullet-proof black BMW. During his trip, he will tour Iraq in cars, helicopters and flights.

*****

Christianity’s roots in Iraq date back to the first decades of the faith. The tombs of biblical figures such as Jonah and Joshua are believed to be here. On Saturday, the Pope will attend an inter-religious meeting at the Plain or Ur, the home of Abraham, the patriarch of Judaism, Christianity and Islam. (My short story Baqri-Id was based on the Abraham story told in Bible as well as Koran).

Until 2003, Iraq had nearly 1.2 million Christians. Saddam Hussein offered them protection; he even had a Christian deputy PM.  Between 2014 and 2017, the Islamic State tried to eliminate Christianity from Iraq. The Jihadists gave the Christians three options. Leave, convert to Islam or get killed. So many fled that the latest estimate is around 250,000 Christians.

*****

Earlier on Saturday, Pope Francis will fly to Najaf, the holiest city, for a meeting with Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani. Pope Francis is 84, whereas the Grand Ayatollah is 90. This is a mild Ayatollah, proposed for a Nobel peace prize a few times, without getting it. In Iraq, they don’t have the celibacy nonsense. Ayatollah is married and has two sons. He and the Pope will meet by themselves (one assumes with interpreters) for peace talks.

*****

In June 1999, I stood for a few hours on the central street of Warsaw to see John Paul II. I was only a few feet away from him when his bullet-proof glass chariot rode past. What astounded me that day was the level of security. Snipers were placed on rooftops. The Pope is one of the highest security risks in the world.

Though Vatican has said social distancing, masks and curfew will be observed, it is unlikely to happen. Today, more than 10,000 security forces are deployed on the streets. Biden, only the second Catholic president after John Kennedy, will need to be careful not to drop any retaliatory bombs on Iraq until Monday. On Sunday, when Pope Francis performs at a soccer stadium, the roads and stadium will be full. Christians out of devotion, and Muslims out of curiosity will crowd the streets.       

Iraq is controlled by six different militia groups. Talking to the 90-year-old Ayatollah is unlikely to solve any problems. The intent of Pope Francis's visit may be good, but its timing is bizarre and irresponsible. 

Ravi                                                                                                                            

Corona Daily 164: Bee Dot One Dot Three Five One

Scientists and the World Health Organisation are genuinely worried. About the complete chaos in naming the different coronavirus variants. I wrote earlier about the 2015 WHO guidelines that prohibit places or animals when naming viruses. Nobody had imagined then that not only a virus, but its variants may have to be named.

Names should be simple, easy to pronounce, type and memorise. This is how we name our children (Elon Musk the only exception). Look at SARS-CoV-2. It looks more like a strong password. People prefer to use the imprecise Covid instead.

*****

It would have been all right if only the public and media were confused. But the scientists too are confused about naming the variants. One scientist said: You can’t track something you can’t name.

The dangerous variant colloquially called “the UK variant” is named VOC 202012/01 by Public Health England. VOC is Variant of Concern. A group of scientists call it B.1.1.7. Some English tabloids call it the “Kent variant”.

“20H/501Y.V2”, “VOC202012/02” and “B.1.351” (pronounced bee dot one dot three five one) are three names for the same variant popularly known as the “South African variant”. Like with a password, if you miss a single digit or dot, it may become another variant.

*****

It is dangerous to name the variants after nations, as is done currently. These nations have identified these variants, they didn’t necessarily start there. UK and South Africa have more advanced genome surveillance. But fearing the transmissibility of the “UK variant” some countries may be tempted to ban travel from the UK. Worse, stigmatizing places would mean their scientists would be reluctant in future to declare new variants. Expressions such as “the South African variant of the Wuhan virus” may also encourage xenophobia and racist attacks.

*****

When WHO didn’t exist, the world managed to come up with simple names. ‘Cancer’ is Greek for crab, because Greek physicians found some tumours similar to crabs. Asthma was the Greek word for panting. Plague was the translation of stroke or wound. Diabetes meant “to pass through”, to describe excessive discharge of urine. Influenza, an Italian word, referred to an outbreak. Its short form “flu” is a wonderful example of how easy a name can be.

Scientists the world over are trying to grapple with the naming crisis. One proposal suggests naming the variants in chronological order, V1, V2, V3 and so on. This unimaginative solution may find a few supporters. Hurricanes, Greek letters, birds, animals (though banned by WHO), local monsters are some others. Colours is another option.

One group of scientists tried to convert the scientific names into mnemonics: D614G became “Doug”, N501Y “Nelly” and E484K “Eeek”. (Eeek makes the virus less susceptible to vaccines). The last one was supposed to be called Eric, but that was the name of one scientist in the group, so they settled for Eeek.

*****

GSAID (Global initiative on sharing all influenza data) is a database for naming. It would have been wonderful if it was the only one. But there are two more: Pango and Nextstrain. All three competing systems follow their own methods. A mutant is a virus that has in its genetic code mutations, different from the wild genotype acquired via errors. A variant is a mutant, and a strain is a variant with a markedly different manifestation (transmissibility, lethality, effect on immunity or vaccines). Apparently, even scientists are not precise about using those terms.

*****

Sickened by the whole mess, on 14 January WHO held a meeting to discuss a new standardized naming system for variants. It is hoped the system will be generated before the pandemic is over.

Ravi 

Corona Daily 165: The Foetal Issue

Yesterday, the US conference of Catholic Bishops asked Catholics to avoid the newly approved Johnson & Johnson vaccine. The vaccine was termed morally corrupt, because it uses cells derived decades ago from an abortion.

*****  

The Vatican and Pope Francis have been more practical. Considering the severity of the pandemic, and the remote connection with abortion, Vatican declared it was morally acceptable to take vaccines for the greater good. This didn’t make abortion any less evil, it added. Pope Francis took two Pfizer shots. All five thousand Vatican employees are asked to be vaccinated. Those who don’t are threatened with the loss of their jobs.

When Vatican issued the statement, the Johnson & Johnson vaccine was not yet in the picture. Pfizer and Moderna use different technologies.

What exactly is the issue with foetal tissue?

*****

Way back in the 1960s Dr Leonard Hayflick, an American scientist, first used cells derived from foetal tissues in clinical research. The cells were created from an aborted four-month gestation foetus. That cell line was successfully used to create a plethora of vaccines against rubella, rabies, polio, measles, chickenpox. Human foetal tissue has also been used to study HIV/AIDS, birth defects, Parkinson’s, Alzheimer’s and many other diseases.

Most of the Covid-19 vaccines use only two foetal tissues, both created in the labs of the Netherlands. One (HEK-293) is a kidney cell line derived from a foetus aborted in 1972. The other (PER.C6) is the one used in the J&J vaccine. That was created from the eye cells of an 18-week foetus aborted in 1985. Just two foetuses, one from 1972 and another from 1985. Both abortions were voluntary, requested by the parents.

It is important to note those foetal tissues are not used in the vaccines, but foetal cell lines. Foetal cell lines are grown in a laboratory. They descend from the 1972 and 1985 cells. But over the last forty or fifty years, the current foetal cell lines are thousands of generations removed from the original tissues. They hardly contain any tissue from a foetus. This is what Vatican probably meant when it talked of the vaccines’ ‘remoteness’ from aborted foetuses.

*****

Vaccines such as the J&J vaccine use altered adenovirus, which cannot replicate by itself. The foetal-derived cell line provides the replication machinery that allows generating vast amounts of the virus. Animal cells are not as effective in generating a robust and specific immune response as human cells.  Pfizer and Moderna did perform confirmation tests using foetal cell lines. The J&J vaccine used the foetal cell lines in production as well. That makes it morally corrupt.

*****

In 2019, the Trump administration banned use of foetal tissue from abortions in research. But the policy allowed use of decades old foetal cell lines. That is why we have covid vaccines today. Trump himself was treated with a cocktail of monoclonal antibodies that he described as “cure”. That and Remdesivir, the drug given to him, were both developed using cells from aborted foetuses. Republicans talk of the sanctity of human life and promoting guns in the same breath. Trump, in his last days as a president, obsessively carried out three executions, despite knowing his successor planned to abolish the federal death sentence.

*****

The case of Savita Halappanavar, a 31-year-old dentist in Ireland, is well known. She died unnecessarily, begging for an abortion. Catholic Irish laws didn’t allow abortions. She and the unborn baby both died.

The catholic priest sex abuse report mentions several instances of the priests asking the nuns they have impregnated to go for quick abortions.

The final decision to abort must belong to the pregnant woman, not to an organization that allows only men in their hierarchy.

Ravi 

Corona Daily 166: The Ship Slaughterhouse

Alang.

Have you heard of this place? No? But for my pandemic research, I wouldn’t have either, though it is less than 500 km from Mumbai. It is a stretch of muddy beach in North-west India. The biggest passenger and cargo ships are dismantled and demolished in Alang, the world’s largest graveyard for ships. On the Alang beach, once-glimmering royal vessels lie crumbling, their bowels exposed, their glory days over. Like slaughtering a beautiful cow, then dismembering her for human consumption.

*****

In the pandemic, cruise liner companies are going bankrupt. Countries like Canada have banned cruises this year. Normally, ships live longer than thirty years. Now even younger ships are sent for scrapping. Carnival corporation, world’s largest cruise operator, recently retired 17 ships, including two Fantasy Class liners. Most of these ships are demolished at Aliaga in Turkey.

*****

In January 2021, two UK ships, the Marco Polo and Megellan, landed at Alang. UK laws prohibit sending ships to developing countries for taking apart. The bankrupt owners auctioned the ships. One was supposed to become a floating hotel in Dubai, another in Liverpool. Instead, they were both beached in Alang for breaking. I suppose all parties knew this was a modus operandi to bypass the UK laws. Marco Polo was sold for £2 million at the auction, but later fetched £4 million as scrap.

*****

Alang (India), Chattogram (Bangladesh) and Gadani (Pakistan) together scrap more than half of the world’s ships. But the EU and America ban sending ships there for demolition.

The ships are valued in the Indian continent because they contain large amounts of steel. But they also contain hazardous materials, like asbestos (banned in developed countries). Workers, often exploited migrants, including children, are exposed to huge risks. Injuries or deaths can happen by fire, gas explosions and falling steel plates. Labourers and local communities become sick by the exposure to toxic fumes and substances, and air pollution. Since 2009, more than 400 workers have died. Like nuclear rubbish, ships are dumped on developing countries.

*****

Instead of listening to the world’s top economists, it is enough to visit the Alang Shipbreaking Yard to understand the state of the world economy. When the economy is healthy, cruises and cargo ships do well, and Alang sees a slump in its business.

In the last two months, there is a queue of luxury liners waiting to be broken. In 2010-11, the global freight market was in crisis. A record 415 ships came to Alang to be dismantled. When imports and exports decline, container ships are idle. In 2018, during a slump in the global oil market, every third vessel reaching Alang for scrapping was either an oil rig or an oil tanker.

It takes fifty labourers about three months to break down a normal-sized cargo vessel of 40,000 tonnes.

*****

Steel is the backbone of the shipbreaking business. Cruise liners have less steel than oil tankers, bulk carriers or container ships. The salvaged steel is sent to re-rolling mills in different states.  

In the second quarter of 2020, Alang came to a standstill because of India’s strict lockdown. Workers were not available, and ships were not allowed to land. The steel prices collapsed and still remain low. But from July onwards, the business picked up, and now it is booming.  

*****

Just before the pandemic, India passed an act to join the Hong Kong convention. This convention offers certificates for compliance with green recycling standards for the safe and environmentally sound recycling (euphemism for breaking) of ships. Reportedly, 90 out of 120 working plots at Alang are now certified for such compliance. Bangladesh has only one green facility and Pakistan none. Following the certification, America and Europe will be able to send ships to India for breaking. India’s market share in the global shipbreaking industry is expected to go from the current 30% to 60%.

One hopes that the green certificates will also bring in better working conditions and safety standards for the workers and community at Alang.

Ravi 

Corona Daily 167: The Sixth Continent Slumps

Yesterday, Lotte duty-free and Shilla duty-free shut their stores in Seoul’s terminal one. Seoul’s Incheon airport is known as the biggest airport shop in the world. DF2, an ever busy section before the pandemic, stopped selling perfumes and cosmetics. In 2020, the renowned Seoul airport held three auctions to sell empty store space. Not a single buyer came forward. With an 83% fall in passengers, the airport incurred a net loss of $384 million.  

*****

Duty-free, also known as the sixth continent, was an $86 billion industry in 2019. Even before the pandemic, certain trends were noticeable. It was moving away from cigarettes and booze. Perfumes and cosmetics accounted for two thirds of the sales. Duty-free sales were rapidly moving in the direction of China and its wealthy customers.

Worldwide duty-free sales collapsed by 70% in 2020.

*****

In the old days, passengers travelled by international ships for weeks, sometimes months. “Duty-free” was an allowance for whatever they “consumed” on the ship. Because during the international voyage they were not taxable in any land. During the journey, they actually could smoke 200 cigarettes and drink two liters of whiskey. As a matter of historical inertia, the same quotas continued even after people began flying.

Modern airport duty-free began in 1950. International travel had just started after WWII. Shannon airport in Ireland was one of the hubs. Brendon O’Regan, a catering accountant, noticed people liked to shop at the airport. Why not incentivize them by making the shopping tax-free, he thought. The Irish government found a way to do it by declaring Shannon airport to be not part of Ireland. That was the beginning of airport duty-free.

*****

In 2020, China did something similar by declaring Hainan, an island, as a duty-free port. Hainan is called China’s Hawaii, and is looked at as a potential substitute for Hong Kong. Hainan has beaches for swimming and surfing, but its bigger attraction is shopping. Chinese shoppers are now allowed to buy up to $15,500 worth of tax-free goods. This is three times the allowance pre-pandemic. China is wooing its rich citizens, who unfortunately can’t travel abroad, to visit Hainan and experience international travel. The initiative was vastly successful. Visitor numbers were down 22% due to the pandemic, but the duty-free sales went up by 127% year-on-year.

Last year, China managed to overtake Dufry (Switzerland) as the largest seller of tax-free luxury goods. Dufry sold a stake to Alibaba to acknowledge this.

China Duty Free is focusing on merging online and offline duty free. The idea is that the passenger “window-shops” online (before), off-line (at the airport), online (after reaching home). Fancy videos and livestreaming programmes have been a great success.

*****

“Flights to nowhere” are a pandemic special. Last October, a seven-hour flight took off from Sydney, and after flying all over Australia, reached… Sydney. Day before yesterday, Korea started a two-hour flight that enters Japanese airspace, but returns to Korea. Japan, Singapore, India and Ukraine are selling tickets for flights to nowhere. The scenic flights fly low, at 3000 feet or whatever is the legal minimum, allowing passengers to watch the scenery (new term flightseeing). Dining is an attraction on some flights. Ukraine has the cheapest flights at $95, probably because the route shows Chernobyl.

One key purpose of these flights is to promote duty-free sales. Different governments have prescribed tax-free allowances as part of the flying experience.    

*****

Duty-free has been criticized as immoral. It promotes consumption of high excise items like cigarettes and booze. It is a tax-avoidance scheme for the rich. When you look at the original concept of consumption on the ship, duty-free on arrival, and duty-free online are nonsensical.

With international travel reeling from pandemic shock, it is likely the duty-free concept will be re-defined in the future.

Ravi 

Corona Daily 168: Epidemiological Whodunnit: Part Final

The third suspected reason for the low cases and deaths in Asia and Africa is underreporting. Are poor countries hiding the deaths? They are known to report only about 5% of Malaria deaths. Indian villages may be cremating people without reporting them. In Lusaka, Zambia; in an interesting experiment, postmortem was conducted on 364 people. Only five of them were tested for coronavirus when alive. The postmortem found 70 people had coronavirus.

Like in a murder investigation, one needs to look for a motive. Ghana and Nigeria received billions of dollars to fight the virus. Politically, they should be interested in over-reporting.

There are at least two ways to probe this issue. One is the all-cause mortality or excess mortality statistics. It is very difficult to hide bodies, even murderers can rarely do it successfully. Most civilized countries keep reliable death records. Natural deaths have a smooth, predictable graph. They don’t jump suddenly.

If you look at the excess deaths table by The Economist (till 18 Feb), other than South Africa, all countries are from Europe and America. Between 1 April- 31 Dec 2020, Russia reported 56,250 deaths. But excess deaths were 367,880 during the same period. Russia defines a covid death only if covid-19 is written as the cause on the death certificate. In the first ten months, USA reported 360,370 covid deaths, and 448,550 excess deaths. If there is under-reporting, it is universal, not just in poor countries.

The other way to judge if official trends are right is the empirical evidence. My doctor friends tell me the situation in Bombay hospitals is fine now. Last August, some hospitals were exclusively set aside for covid patients. This year, I have heard of new cases in my neighbourhood, but no deaths.

*****  

The fourth factor is the government action and its willingness to enforce it. USA was an excellent example of what not to do. I believe at least half of the American deaths can be attributed to Trump’s recklessness and denial. In the best prepared nation, those deaths were avoidable. In rich nations, freedom of mind and expression, the ultimate test of democracy, was confused with liberty to ignore a health emergency.

Countries like Rwanda, on the other hand, were very clear with decisive control measures, strict curfew. And the Rwandan population listened. Now restrictions are lifted, and applied strictly only at a local level to suppress an outbreak.

Bombay’s Dharavi was another good example. Perseverant contact tracing, quarantine and disinfection measures managed to contain the virus in this supremely crowded giant slum.

*****

The fifth factor is the acquired differences in human immunity. The citizens of the poor countries believe their immunity is stronger.

B-cells and T-cells are part of acquired immunity. B cells make antibodies against viruses, T cells hunt for cells infected by a virus. Mukherjee compares B cells to a sharpshooter, and T cells to a detective. Some studies found that the novel coronavirus was triggering a T-cell response, based on a different infection earlier. The T-cell memory recognized this new foe, without meeting it earlier. In that sense, the novel coronavirus was not novel for everybody.

This cross-reactivity, the ability of immune system to protect against one pathogen based on another, appears to be stronger in Africa and Asia. A Mumbai doctor says in India people had really high levels of antibodies, the levels don’t decay even among old people, and the antibodies stay for a long time.

*****

Finally, the sixth hypothesis talks about the viral load. Indian cases have unusually low virus levels. Warm weather and open ventilation may be resulting in low-dose exposure. This hypothesis could also explain the large number of asymptomatic cases in India. Many serosurveys in Indian cities found more than half the population carrying antibodies.

*****

Mukherjee says it would be ideal to find a single cause, a single murderer for the murder. However, with so many hypotheses, he equates the case to Agatha Christie’s Murder on the Orient Express. Poirot realizes the murder to be a pre-planned collective act.

The strange matter of the coronavirus crippling rich nations may similarly be due to a combination of causes.

Ravi