Corona Daily 172: Wanted: Monkeys

Monkeys are in short supply. We have heard of vaccine trials. Before testing vaccines on humans, they had to be tested on monkeys. Bioqual was one of the companies responsible for supplying monkeys to Moderna and Johnson and Johnson. The company lost their contract mid-way because it couldn’t supply enough monkeys.

Monkeys are ideal for vaccine trials, because they share nearly 90% DNA with us. Their biology is similar. They can be tested with nasal swabs, administered intravenous injections and their lungs can be scanned. While drugs such as dexamethasone were tested on hamsters, scientists say it is nearly impossible to test vaccines without monkeys. Millions of human lives depend on monkeys.

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With scientists around the world desirous of developing vaccines clamoring for monkeys, the demand shot up. The cost of a single monkey went from $10,000 to more than $20,000. The situation was aggravated because a year ago China announced a ban on export of wildlife.

Though Trump had started a trade war with China, for over a decade the American scientists had a close association with the Chinese monkey suppliers. In 2019, out of the 34,000 primates imported by USA, over 60% came from China. The type of monkeys exported by China are mostly cynomolgus macaques.

China may lift the ban once the pandemic is over. However, with the skyrocketing demand for lab animals, Chinese researchers have announced they face a shortage themselves. The government stockpile in China has 45000 monkeys, a number barely enough for domestic research.

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Not surprisingly, India and China have the highest population of monkeys. It is estimated India has over half a million. For 22 years, until 1978, India was the major supplier of monkeys for research. India supplied some 30000 Rhesus monkeys every year to the USA.

The world’s largest supplier of monkeys suddenly banned its export following disclosures in the Indian press that the USA was using some of the monkeys for testing military weapons. This was a violation of the international agreement signed by the two states.

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Animal right groups have been active and aggressive in opposing the use of monkeys for scientific research. Because most monkeys are hurt or die during the experiments. Some succumb to fatal diseases or injuries. Most are killed because their tissues must be examined in autopsies to determine results.

PETA (People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals) has succeeded in lobbying with the airlines. Major airlines now ban transport of research animals, including monkeys. Animals can be transported for other purposes, such as taking them to zoos or sanctuaries, but not for experiments. Scientists are unhappy about such discriminatory practice.

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The choice for the USA was to home-breed monkeys, although Chinese and Indian monkeys are much cheaper than American or European monkeys. The USA maintains seven primate research centers, where before research, the animals live in colonies. The facilities are affiliated to research universities and funded by the National Institutes of Health. Animal rights activists accuse the centers of abuse, including separating babies from their mothers.

In the last two decades, those centers always wanted to expand the monkey population. Unfortunately, their budgets kept contracting. The scientists, in fact, had to give the female monkeys birth control. Every year fewer babies were born.

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Scientists believe monkey research remains vital for developing vaccines, understanding the basic biology of the brain, neurological and communicable diseases, and certain aspects of fertility and ageing.

The instinctive reaction of most humans is to think of animal rights activists as fanatics. If monkeys are so useful in saving millions of human lives, why not facilitate their breeding and export for the benefit of science?

Ethically speaking, though, what right does the human race have to inflict pain on monkeys for experiments? Nazis had used the same argument when conducting medical experiments on Jews.

Ravi 

Corona Daily 173: Principles of Selection

Most people know Parkinson’s Law: Work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion. Parkinson’s Law, the book, is a masterpiece by C. Northcote Parkinson. Despite serious subjects and practical insights, his prose and style make me roll on the floor laughing every time I read it. In a chapter called “the short list, or principles of selection” Parkinson discusses the British and Chinese methods to select candidates. For a single vacancy, hundreds or thousands of applicants, everyone thinking he or she is most suited for the job, apply. How to select that one candidate?

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United States of America is by most counts the best place for college education. Harvard, MIT, Stanford, Ivy colleges in general attract the best youth not only in America but from around the world. Despite the high costs, interest is huge. For years, standardized tests called SAT and ACT were used to assess students. The scores in such tests contributed in a big way to enrolling or rejecting students.

Due to the pandemic, SAT and ACT are now waived or made optional. This is a revolutionary change.

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SAT (Scholastic Aptitude Test) is a major source of competition and student stress. Unfortunately, the SAT scores were highly correlated with wealth. The higher the family income, the higher the SAT score. Well-off families use private test-prep courses and tutors. Places like Manhattan have tutors charging $1000 per hour for one-to-one tutoring. As the competition for college admissions has intensified, tutoring and SAT preparation have become a billion-dollar industry.

A study suggests that if you come from a family with an annual income greater than $200,000, your chance of scoring 1400 (out of 1600) was 20%. If you came from a poor family (less than $20,000), your chance was 2%. At Yale and Princeton, only one student in fifty comes from a poor family.

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Wherever demand exceeds supply, educational institutions conceive clever ways of eliminating students. Mathematics is a good example. That subject is universally used not necessarily because it is useful in the course the student is planning to study, but to eliminate students from the competition. SAT served a similar function. It allowed a quantitative measure that could legitimately throw applications out.

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Now with the cancellation of standardized tests, suddenly thousands of students think they have a chance to get into the top universities. “The Common Application”, an online portal, reported that one million students applied ahead of January deadlines. Harvard has got 42% more applications this year. Cornell received 17,000 extra applications. Colgate in New York, a lesser-known college, got 103% more applications.

Small universities and colleges less famous have their mailboxes empty. Many of them have lost all additional sources of revenue such as food or athletic events. Programs are slashed and faculty laid off, creating a vicious cycle making the college less attractive.

Faculty and administrators at Cal Poly Pomona spent December calling students who had saved applications but not submitted. They also called students they had rejected in the past. Cal Poly Pomona had already lost $20 million in state funding.

Among the applicants, low-income and minority students show the largest declines. Pandemic has forced many of them to consider work first. Some of them lack online access.

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Higher education at the elite institutions was always a sort of scam. Harvard, Cambridge, or Indian IITs use cutthroat competitive exams to intake the cream, the brightest of the bright. The success of the student in academics and life can in large measure be attributed to this selection process rather than the academic institute. The virtuous cycle further enhances the reputation of the university.

With the disappearance of the standardised tests in the pandemic, it will be curious to see how the college admission process will be handled this year.

Ravi 

Corona Daily 174: Dear Comrade Kim Jong-un

Kim Jong-un, the 38-year-old Supreme Leader of North Korea, is perhaps the most paranoid ruler in the world. A terrible historical accident after WWII split Korea into two parts, the democratic South later becoming one of the world’s most prosperous economies and the cult-driven autocratic North, an impoverished country.

How to find out the pandemic’s effect on this secretive country? Well, some institutes share satellite images. Occasionally, Dear Comrade Kim Jong-un (that is how he must be addressed every time) releases a video, or there are foreign ambassadors who may offer candid interviews.

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North Korea’s border with China is porous. Chinese tourists can visit Pyongyang easily. Though North Korea has denied it, it is likely the virus had entered the nation early. It became among the first nations to close all borders in both directions. Reportedly 180 North Korean soldiers died in Jan-Feb, and 3700 soldiers were under quarantine. Schools were shut on 20 February, and a year later, still remain shut.

In early March, missile tests were conducted, the military fired five missiles. The supreme people’s assembly was announced in April. These measures were meant to show confidence that the nation was handling the virus well.

In March, the Royal United Services Institute shared satellite imagery that showed the illegal traffic of coal and other goods had stopped. Commercial vessels were seen idle at the ports. In March, the official export to China was $610,000, down 96% from the previous year.

Between April and June, three months combined, Dear Comrade was seen only seven times. On average he had made 46 appearances during that period in the past years.

In August, an official who tried to bring goods to Sinuiju from across the Chinese border was executed for violating covid-19 restrictions. On 22 September, the crew of a North Korean patrol boat killed a South Korean fisheries officer who, by chance, came close to the coast. They torched his floatation device. Both these acts were as prescribed by the covid-19 emergency orders. On television, Kim Jong-un expressed regret for the death. The incident should not have happened, he was disappointed, he said.

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It is difficult to imagine further isolation of North Korea, but it was managed; by the ruler himself. China offered 110,000 tons of rice which never left China’s port of Dalian because North Korea feared the coronavirus could enter with the shipment.

Alexander Matsegora, the Russian ambassador, trapped inside the Russian embassy in Pyongyang now for more than a year, confirmed even basic items such as soyabean oil, sugar, flour, pasta have not been supplied. North Korea doesn’t produce, but imports them from China. Where available in black markets, the prices have gone up at least four times.

In rural areas, households get two hours of electricity a day. Fertilizer shortages could aggravate the food situation further. Typical of communist States, North Korea believes in specialized giant factories. Many of them rely exclusively on China for spare parts. For want of spare parts, many factories are closed, including the nation’s largest fertilizer plant. Power plant output has become unreliable. Production is halted at coal mines and other mines.

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 In the winter of 2020, Kim Jong-un introduced a new law against “reactionary thought”. It made listening to, recording or distributing foreign radio broadcasts, videos, books, music illegal. Those caught can be sentenced to death. Any citizen using South Korean expression or speaking with a South Korean accent will be sent for two years to a hard labour camp.

An official State TV footing from 11 February showed an angry Kim yelling, finger pointing and striking the podium as he addressed the ruling party’s plenary meeting. He fired Kim Tu Il, the Economic Director.

Dear Comrade, however, continued to declare North Korea’s victory by claiming the nation didn’t have a single covid-19 case.

Ravi 

Corona Daily 175: Sound of Music (2020)

The Marsh family is from Faversham, Kent, about fifty miles to the east of London. Dr Ben Marsh, 44, is a professor in American history at the University of Kent. If you read his biography, he comes across as a serious researcher and academic. He met his wife, Danielle, 42, at the University of Cambridge where they were both students. She is now also a professor at the University of Kent. Alfie, 13, Thomas, 12, Ella, 10, and Tess, 8, their four children attend school or rather did before the start of the lockdown in March 2020.

In March, Danielle’s mother had a birthday. It was impossible to meet or to celebrate the day with her. The family decided to send her a virtual gift. Children had no schoolwork; the professors didn’t have any papers to mark. Music became a welcome distraction for the family.

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Their living room became the stage, flowery curtains and family photos the stage background. Bathrobes and pajamas were the costumes. The six-voice musical ensemble was born.

Dad Dr Ben picked up “One Day More” from the musical Les Misérables and wrote lockdown lyrics where the parents complain about online grocery shopping, and the children lament: “Our grandparents can’t Skype, we’re brokenhearted,” and “watch our daddy drink, see our mummy sigh”.

Their clip posted on FB attracted 400,000 views in the first week. (Only the children’s grandfather protested saying he can Skype and Zoom).

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This was just the beginning of a long journey. By day six of the lockdown, the Marshes sang a song dedicated to the NHS, teachers and community heroes. It was the remake of “When will my life begin” from Disney’s Tangled, praising workers for all the chores they were doing.

On Twitter, Bonnie Tyler herself admired the family’s rendition of the reworked “total eclipse of the heart”.

So far, the family has posted twenty videos. The latest video, “have the new jab” (to the tune of Leonard Cohen’s Hallelujah) has been watched four million times. The lyrics encourage listeners to go and get the vaccine. Several TV channels interviewed them on Zoom. Jimmy Kimmel invited them to appear on “Good morning America”.

Fans compared them to the Von Trapps made famous by the Sound of Music. Danielle Marsh objected to the comparison saying she is definitely not a nun, neither can she make dresses out of curtains.

In the clips, the family not only sings and plays on the instruments, the children have dramatic moments of bickering and improvised dances.

All proceeds raised from the videos are directly donated to the WHO’s Covid Relief Fund.

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Though none of them have music as a profession, reworking lyrics was a family hobby even before the pandemic. In the car, they usually sang songs.  For a non-professional family, their performances are of a pretty decent quality. Now that they have become a global sensation, would they consider turning this into a profession? Not really. The parents are keen to get back to the university, the kids to the schools. Schools in England are expected to begin on 8 March.

But Dr Ben says with a straight face they want to leave their options open. “Nobody’s job is secure in the post-pandemic world.” He explains.

Ravi 

Corona Daily 176: Ten Km in Snow

Fran Goldman was twenty-five years old when the polio vaccine was rolled out in 1955. Three years before that, 60,000 American children were infected and more than 3000 died. Thousands, including Franklin Roosevelt, the American president, were paralyzed by the dreadful virus. Parents anxiously tried to protect their children from the crippling disease, ordering them to stay away from swimming pools and movie theatres. Children were asked to wash hands repeatedly. Some polio-afflicted children were consigned to life in an iron lung, a type of ventilator that enveloped a child’s body to ease breathing.

Fran Goldman lived in Cincinnati then. She remembers taking her children to the local school. The vaccination was extremely well organized, the children were lined up quickly and it was over. It was hard to believe those few seconds would protect her children’s lives, they would be able to play, go to the pool and cinema without fear.

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Fran is now 90 years old and lives on her own in Seattle. Since the covid vaccines became available, she had been trying to get an appointment. After hours on the phone, if she managed to get through, she heard sorry not yet possible. Her daughter Ruth living in Buffalo, and a friend in Arizona tried to do it online. Fran also tried the local grocery stores with in-store pharmacies. Nothing. Finally, last Friday, on 12 Feb. after answering several questions, she got a Sunday morning appointment, fairly unexpectedly. This was a moment she had waited for, for weeks.

That same evening, a snowstorm started. Outside her condo building, foot-high snow gathered. She looked out and realized it would be impossible to drive (yes, she still drives). The Seattle children’s hospital where she had an appointment was 5 km (3 miles) away. On Saturday morning, she decided to go for a practice walk. To see if she could walk the following day for vaccination. She put on her boots, grabbed two walking sticks and set out. She had undergone a hip replacement surgery last year.

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Sunday, 14 February was equally bad. This was declared as one of Seattle’s snowiest weekends on record. Fran had covered two thirds of the distance yesterday, and confident she could do it on the hilly, un-ploughed roads had returned home. On Sunday morning, she dressed in fleece pants and a short-sleeved shirt so that the nurse could reach her arm easily. Over that a fleece zip-up, then a down-coat, and a rain-jacket on top. She put on her snow boots, grabbed the two walking sticks and headed out. Yesterday’s footmarks and tracks had disappeared, covered with more snow.

The trail was challenging, but she made it to her appointment, just five minutes late. That was lucky, because had she reached early, as per protocol, she would have been asked to wait in a car. And there was no car.

She waited for fifteen minutes after the shot, as required. Putting on the three layers, she walked back the five km once again. The ten km walk would not have been as difficult, she said, if she didn’t have a replaced hip.

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Compared to the polio vaccine experience in 1955, this year’s has been far disorganized, and messy, she felt. But it was as critical for her to take the covid vaccine as it was for her kids to take the polio vaccine then. In a month’s time, she is due for a second shot. If weather doesn’t allow it, she is willing to walk the ten km once again.

Since the pandemic began, Fran has been ordering food online and picking it up in her car. She has taken a variety of Zoom classes (currently learning about post-World War II China). She hasn’t yet seen Silas, her great-grandson born six months ago. Neither has she held Logan, another great-grandson, two years old. The vaccine was important for her to feel comfortable. “I can’t wait to be able to hold them” she said.

Ravi 

Corona Daily 177: Bonnets, Gloves and Glasses

“How do I look?” She asked first adjusting her bonnet, and then putting the glasses on. “I found these old glasses in the garage. I think my granny wore them. So thick and ugly. I can’t see much. But they should do, shouldn’t they? How do I look?” She asked again.

The older lady stared at the image in the mirror and said, “Looks ok. But I think you will need to apply some makeup, a little more. Like last time. Even with the glasses you look too young.”

The lady in the bonnet took out her i-phone 12. On the screen, she opened her photo and using an app, began rapidly altering her image. This, this, this…. Would I look older with thicker eyebrows?”

The two ladies left the house two hours later.  “I will wear the glasses once we reach”, said the lady in the bonnet. On the car GPS she set the Orange County convention center as the destination. The center is only some ten miles from Orlando’s Disney World. The newspaper reports don’t mention their names, just ages – 34 and 44.

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The Canadian newspapers, on the other hand, are not shy of mentioning the names of Rodney Baker, 55, president and CEO of a Canadian casino company, and his 32-year-old Russian wife, Ekaterina Baker, an aspiring actress. The Bakers first flew from Vancouver to Whitehorse, a good four-hour flight. Canadian law required them to self -isolate for 14 days. However, they took a charter flight to Beaver creek, a small community of about 100 people near the Alaska border.

Yukon’s rural communities are a priority group because they are more vulnerable to Covid-19. They are so remotely located; they have little access to health services or a hospital. The government has organized mobile vaccination clinics especially for the Yukon residents.

Rodney and Ekaterina Baker went to one such mobile clinic.

“Both of us work at a motel nearby.” Ekaterina gave the name of the motel and a charming smile. Both were given the Moderna vaccine.

They then began asking for a ride to the airport from passing cars.  “Airport?” people wondered. Why would anyone wish to go to the small airport in this lockdown time? An enforcement unit person called the airport and asked them to check who the couple was. A mobile clinic member called the motel, who said no such people work there. The couple was charged $2300 penalty.

“We didn’t anticipate anyone would go to this length to effectively deceive the team to get vaccinated.” The government official said.

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Let me continue with the story at the beginning of this article, which happened on 17 February with the two unnamed ladies. On reaching the center, the 33-year-old put on her granny glasses. At the counter, they showed their appointment letters and the CDC cards.

“Your driving licence, please”, the man at the counter said.

“When we got the first shot, nobody asked us for a licence.” Said the lady making her voice as trembling as possible. “You see the CDC card shows we have had our first shot. We have come for the second.”

The staff member insisted on seeing both the driving licences. He then called his manager. This center was allowed to vaccinate only people older than 65. The geriatric disguise still couldn’t beat the ages on the driving licences.

Trespass warnings were issued against them. Since the ladies were not charged, their names can’t be disclosed. By the way, they were denied the second shot they had come for.

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Newspapers in the USA and Europe are full of such stories. Vaccines are a scarce commodity, and hundreds of people are using every available trick in the book to getting vaccinated at the expense of someone more in need.

But then, they are simply following the example of their nation. The world’s richest countries have reserved one billion more doses than their citizens need. Africa, as a result, may not receive any vaccines this year.

Ravi                                              

Corona Daily 178: Grey’s Pandemic Anatomy

Prime time TV shows now face a huge dilemma. Should the scripts reflect pandemic reality? Should the characters wear masks? Or should the covid-fatigued viewers be treated to fantasy life by creating content without coronavirus?

Grey’s Anatomy, a globally well-known show, decided it carried a responsibility to include the pandemic, the story of a lifetime for most people. It spent the entire season battling the pandemic, with several lead characters, including Ellen Pompeo’s Meredith Grey getting ill with covid. Many indoor scenes were moved to a lawn outside the writers’ bungalow, which now doubled up as Meredith Grey’s backyard.

Masks are another serious problem for actors. To deliver facial expressions and lines in close-ups is a challenge. Grey’s Anatomy gave its doctors clear plastic coverings to talk to the patients. Through the plastic face shields, the actors’ faces were completely visible.

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There is a significant time lag between scriptwriting, shooting and the show going on air. Scripts written in winter may appear the next summer or autumn. That has been another challenge showrunners have confronted. When writing stories for a long season, generally scriptwriters know what the world is going to look like in the future. But in 2020, particularly before the announcement of the vaccines, scriptwriters didn’t know the shape of the future. Shows had three choices: make pandemic the theme, give it a background role, or ignore it.

Most sitcoms, particularly the new series, went for the third option, because they are hopeful of re-runs in future. Chuck Lorre, the creator of The Big Bang Theory, said he has always been a believer in making comedies that do not carry a heavy time stamp. That is why he would avoid pandemics and bell bottoms.

Mr Mayor, a show that premiered on NBC last month decided to include a punchline: “Dolly Parton bought everybody a vaccine.”

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Last Man Standing, a family sitcom, decided to skip ahead and show the events happening from 2023 onwards. Kevin Abbott, its showrunner, felt most decent pandemic jokes would have been told by then. Anyway, the script was not particularly suited to include pandemic references.

The Good Doctor went for a compromise. It showed two episodes focused on the coronavirus and then jumped ahead a few years to a normal world.

Superstore takes place in a store. The producers felt it would be odd to show business as usual. It’s a sitcom, so they handle the pandemic lightly. They shifted many scenes to a huge airy warehouse set so the characters could observe social distance.

Some writers have been creative. They show seaside fantasy sequences, or dreams or flashbacks to allow romance and passionate hugging and kissing without masks.

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This Is Us had completed its fourth season just before the lockdown last spring. Episodes of the fifth season were already written. Considerable rewriting was needed to include the pandemic. Family members casually flying here and there were suddenly stopped from travelling and sometimes couldn’t see one another. Stories of pregnancy and adoption underwent adjustments.

In general, currently there are more outdoor scenes and fewer interior location shoots. Courtroom dramas include fewer jury trials. Crowd scenes are limited, extras in the background are reduced or reused.

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With India’s strict prolonged lockdown, many Hindi serials were cancelled and taken off air for good. Family dramas now often actively propagate masks, sanitisers and social distancing. In Yeh Rishta Kya Kahlata Hai (What does this relationship stand for) characters interact while wearing masks. In one episode, the husband offers his wife a sanitizer bottle, and then helps her wear gloves and a face shield. That is the scriptwriter’s way to show intimacy in corona times.

Ravi 

Corona Daily 179: Privileged Peruvians

Three years ago, in March 2018, Martin Vizcarra, the new President of Peru, was a breath of clean and non-corrupt air. A former regional governor with no political party and no connections, he sympathized with Peruvian citizens furious at the series of corruption scandals. In the previous months, wiretapped phone calls between judges, criminals and politicians had revealed how the three parties colluded to rob the people and remain powerful and free.

Vizcarra replaced Kuchynski.

Just 19 months into his planned five-year tenure, Pedro Kuczynski had resigned due to links with Odebrecht, a Brazilian construction giant at the centre of Latin America’s biggest corruption scandal.

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In recent history, Alberto Fujimori, Peru’s President (1990-2000) was convicted for his role in killings and kidnappings, illegal searches and seizures, embezzlement in millions. Under the nation’s law, all sentences run concurrently, so he got away with a sentence of 25 years. Fujimori’s tenure in prison would be much longer than his presidency.

Martin Vizcarra shared the indignation of the public. He promised to be Peru’s first moral president.

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Impeachments happen not only in America. On 9 November 2020, Martin Vizcarra was impeached over corruption allegations and mishandling of the pandemic. Accused of accepting bribes for $800,000 as a governor, he duly denied the accusations and said he was leaving with a clean conscience. Many citizens and observers felt this was not an amount that was grave enough to warrant impeachment. Each politician, particularly the President, must be given some allowance for corruption. Anyway, Vizcarra was removed on grounds of what Peru calls “moral incapacity”.

Manuel Merino, the next president, lasted five days. In the polls, 72% of Peruvians disapproved of Merino. Large scale protests began. Heavy-handed police response resulted in the death of a few protestors. Merino’s ministers resigned, and he followed. He is being investigated for possible violations of human rights.

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In December, Peru crossed the figure of one million cases. With 44,000 deaths till date, Peru is one of the worst suffering Latin American countries. Despite that, not a single vaccine has been administered.

Local media did some investigative work, and found out that the former President Martin Vizcarra and his wife were secretly vaccinated in October, while still in office. Vizcarra tried to say they were part of a clinical trial, but the university in charge of the trials denied that claim. (In any case, to avoid conflict of interest, decision makers are usually not allowed to take part in a trial).

The Chinese makers of Sinopharm confirmed they had given a complimentary 2000 doses in addition to the trial doses. Where did those doses disappear?

Other than he and his wife, Vizcarra admitted his brother was also vaccinated.

On 12 February, Pilar Mazzetti, the health minister resigned. Just a few days before, she had publicly declared she would be immunized only after everyone working in the health system is vaccinated. “The captain is the last to leave the ship. Those of us at the head of the institutions have to set an example to wait for our moment properly” she had said. The public who admired her were shocked to learn she had secretly taken the shots.

On 15 February, Elizabeth Astete, Peru’s foreign minister, resigned. In January, she had authorized the purchase of 1 million vaccine doses of Sinopharm, and secretly taken a shot soon thereafter.  She realized it was a mistake, and to atone it promises not to take a second shot secretly.

Until now, 487 people including the former prime minister’s family, several former and current ministers, senior government officials have been found to have taken the shots secretly since September. The current president Francisco Sagasti said Peruvians should feel outraged about the situation that jeopardizes the effort of the frontline health workers. The full list of those vaccinated has been sent to an investigation commission by the new Health Minister.

Oscar Ugarte is the fifth health minister of Peru since the pandemic began.

*****

Ravi 

Corona Daily 180: The Resilience of Bhutan

76-year-old American tourist Bert Hewitt and his wife landed in Bhutan in the beginning of March 2020. The couple mingled with locals to celebrate an annual festival in Punakha. The next day, he complained of stomach trouble and breathlessness. His oxygen level was ominously low. When tested, he became the first case of coronavirus in Bhutan. A cancer survivor, with his spleen removed, Hewitt also had high blood pressure.

One of the least developed nations, Bhutan dreaded the potential entry of the virus in the kingdom. Health officials immediately went into a contact tracing overdrive. It took them 6 hours and 18 minutes to trace nearly 300 contacts. 75 direct contacts were moved to quarantine facilities, and 225 isolated at home. King Jigme Khesar Namgyel Wangchuck supervised the process personally, staying up through the night. He sent Hewitt a pair of blue silk pajamas and a bedspread. Strangers sent letters and flowers to the hospital.

Still on a ventilator, Hewitt was evacuated in a specialized aircraft with a biocontainment unit to the USA. When he woke up after ten days, an American doctor told him, “whatever they tried in Bhutan probably saved your life.”

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Bhutan, the Himalayan kingdom sandwiched between India and China, is one of the few remarkable nations that has been independent throughout its history. For a population of 760,000, Bhutan has only 337 doctors, one PCR machine to test coronavirus, and a single doctor with advanced training in critical care. Its per person GDP is only $3412, but the kingdom measures its wealth in GNH (Gross National Happiness). (My series on Bhutan 1,2,3,4,5 tells you how GNH is not posturing, but a well-defined quantitative measurement). Bhutan has a fairly open border of 700 km with India.

In the last twelve months, Bhutan has had one coronavirus death.

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At the beginning and later in August, Bhutan followed a 21-day nationwide lockdown. Lotay Tshering, Bhutan’s Prime Minister, is a respected doctor and surgeon. During the lockdown, he decided to sleep in his office (see picture above). The cabinet ministers, senior officials and key staff across all ministries also decided not to go home. This was to avoid taking the virus home, and also to be able to work physically as the government’s top team. Some ministers cooked for one another. The Prime minster performed surgeries through the week. Members of parliament donated a month’s salary. Hotels offered free rooms for quarantine. Farmers donated crops. When lights in the Health Ministry’s office were on in the night, locals brought hot tea and homemade food for the officials.

The King set up a relief fund. $19 million have been distributed among 34,000 Bhutanese who lost their income. The program continues at least till the end of March 2021. During lockdowns, the government organized deliveries of food, medicine and essentials to all households. The government has created a registry of vulnerable citizens. Care packs including sanitizers, vitamins, masks were sent to 51,000 Bhutanese above 60 years of age.

Since schools were shut, lessons were organized on TV channels. Study materials were distributed to children living in rural areas.

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In November 2020, WHO singled out Bhutan for its health emergency readiness.

In 2018 itself, Bhutan along with the WHO representatives had evaluated its emergency readiness. An emergency operations center was established following the evaluation. Bhutan invested in MCK tents (Medical Camp Kit), quickly convertible into health care facilities. Tents were used in the pandemic for screening patients as well as treating them away from non-covid patients. In November 2019, the Health Ministry conducted a simulation exercise at the Paro International airport, Bhutan’s only airport. The scenario talked about a passenger from abroad bringing in a virus. The exercise included the police, armed forces, aviation, customs, flight crews and others.

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Bhutan has 760,000 people. Big nations can object to taking lessons from the tiny kingdom. But Big nations are made of thousands of small Bhutans. In a pandemic, local action may be even more important than national action.

Ravi 

Corona Daily 181: Virus Math: Step-by-Step

Dr Christian Yates, a Mathematician at UK’s Bath university, was asked to calculate the total volume of the Covid-19 virus in the world. If it was possible to collect in one place all virus particles from all the infected humans, how much space would that collection occupy? A small room? A soccer field? A stadium?  His step-by-step calculations and the result they led to are fascinating.

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The first step is to estimate the total number of covid infected people in the world. (Viruses in animals and those lingering in air or on surfaces are ignored). Recently, the number of daily cases has declined from a high of 800,000 to 400,000. Dr Yates takes half a million people testing positive every day as the base estimate. This number, however, doesn’t include the asymptomatic cases, and those unable or unwilling to test. The models of IHME (Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluations) estimate the true number to be 3 million cases every day.

When 3 million cases are added every day for seven days (average time the virus lasts in a human body), it gives 21 million people who at any given point of time are likely to carry some amount of virus.

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Having ascertained the 21 million infected humans, the volume of virus (viral load) in them should be estimated. Studies have shown people infected six days ago carry the highest viral load. Before and after that day, the virus quantum declines. A study measured the virus particles in grammes in monkeys, and extrapolated to humans. The viral load ranges from 1 billion to 100 billion virus particles. Dr Yates has taken 10 billion particles as the geometric (not arithmetic) mean.

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The next step is to multiply the number of infected people (21 million) by the volume (10 billion particles). Rounding it off gives a large figure of two hundred quadrillion, or two hundred million billion. (2x10¹⁷). This number may be intimidating. It is almost as large as the number of grains of sand on earth. But then the SARS-CoV-2 particles are much smaller than a grain of sand. To calculate the space they will occupy, the size of the virus must be taken into the equation.

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The diameter of the covid virus is estimated to be about 100 nanometres. Billion nanometres make a meter. By way of perspective, Dr Yates compares it to a human hair which is a 1000 times thicker than the virus.

The virus being spherical, we use the sphere volume equation we learnt (or didn’t) in school days (V = 4 π r³/3). With a radius of 50 nanometre (If nothing else, each of us probably remembers radius being half of diameter), the volume of a single virus particle is 523,000 cubic nanometres.

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Having estimated the total number of viruses existing at any given time (2x10¹⁷), and the size or volume of each (523,000 cubic nanometres), Dr Yates uses more formulas and adjustments to get the final result. The total volume of the covid virus in the world is about 120 ml (millilitres). Since the microscopic particles are sphere-shaped, they will leave gaps when packed together. (Like round oranges in a box). Statisticians estimate this empty space between round balls to be 26%. Taking that into account, the total collected volume of the Covid-19 virus is 160 ml. Dr Yates compares it to a standard Coke can which is more than double this size.

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The world’s entire covid virus population can be fitted in half of a Coke can. Just like an atom in an atom bomb, it shows that size doesn’t matter when it comes to massive destruction and devastation.

Ravi