Corona Daily 176: Ten Km in Snow

Fran Goldman was twenty-five years old when the polio vaccine was rolled out in 1955. Three years before that, 60,000 American children were infected and more than 3000 died. Thousands, including Franklin Roosevelt, the American president, were paralyzed by the dreadful virus. Parents anxiously tried to protect their children from the crippling disease, ordering them to stay away from swimming pools and movie theatres. Children were asked to wash hands repeatedly. Some polio-afflicted children were consigned to life in an iron lung, a type of ventilator that enveloped a child’s body to ease breathing.

Fran Goldman lived in Cincinnati then. She remembers taking her children to the local school. The vaccination was extremely well organized, the children were lined up quickly and it was over. It was hard to believe those few seconds would protect her children’s lives, they would be able to play, go to the pool and cinema without fear.

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Fran is now 90 years old and lives on her own in Seattle. Since the covid vaccines became available, she had been trying to get an appointment. After hours on the phone, if she managed to get through, she heard sorry not yet possible. Her daughter Ruth living in Buffalo, and a friend in Arizona tried to do it online. Fran also tried the local grocery stores with in-store pharmacies. Nothing. Finally, last Friday, on 12 Feb. after answering several questions, she got a Sunday morning appointment, fairly unexpectedly. This was a moment she had waited for, for weeks.

That same evening, a snowstorm started. Outside her condo building, foot-high snow gathered. She looked out and realized it would be impossible to drive (yes, she still drives). The Seattle children’s hospital where she had an appointment was 5 km (3 miles) away. On Saturday morning, she decided to go for a practice walk. To see if she could walk the following day for vaccination. She put on her boots, grabbed two walking sticks and set out. She had undergone a hip replacement surgery last year.

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Sunday, 14 February was equally bad. This was declared as one of Seattle’s snowiest weekends on record. Fran had covered two thirds of the distance yesterday, and confident she could do it on the hilly, un-ploughed roads had returned home. On Sunday morning, she dressed in fleece pants and a short-sleeved shirt so that the nurse could reach her arm easily. Over that a fleece zip-up, then a down-coat, and a rain-jacket on top. She put on her snow boots, grabbed the two walking sticks and headed out. Yesterday’s footmarks and tracks had disappeared, covered with more snow.

The trail was challenging, but she made it to her appointment, just five minutes late. That was lucky, because had she reached early, as per protocol, she would have been asked to wait in a car. And there was no car.

She waited for fifteen minutes after the shot, as required. Putting on the three layers, she walked back the five km once again. The ten km walk would not have been as difficult, she said, if she didn’t have a replaced hip.

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Compared to the polio vaccine experience in 1955, this year’s has been far disorganized, and messy, she felt. But it was as critical for her to take the covid vaccine as it was for her kids to take the polio vaccine then. In a month’s time, she is due for a second shot. If weather doesn’t allow it, she is willing to walk the ten km once again.

Since the pandemic began, Fran has been ordering food online and picking it up in her car. She has taken a variety of Zoom classes (currently learning about post-World War II China). She hasn’t yet seen Silas, her great-grandson born six months ago. Neither has she held Logan, another great-grandson, two years old. The vaccine was important for her to feel comfortable. “I can’t wait to be able to hold them” she said.

Ravi 

Corona Daily 177: Bonnets, Gloves and Glasses

“How do I look?” She asked first adjusting her bonnet, and then putting the glasses on. “I found these old glasses in the garage. I think my granny wore them. So thick and ugly. I can’t see much. But they should do, shouldn’t they? How do I look?” She asked again.

The older lady stared at the image in the mirror and said, “Looks ok. But I think you will need to apply some makeup, a little more. Like last time. Even with the glasses you look too young.”

The lady in the bonnet took out her i-phone 12. On the screen, she opened her photo and using an app, began rapidly altering her image. This, this, this…. Would I look older with thicker eyebrows?”

The two ladies left the house two hours later.  “I will wear the glasses once we reach”, said the lady in the bonnet. On the car GPS she set the Orange County convention center as the destination. The center is only some ten miles from Orlando’s Disney World. The newspaper reports don’t mention their names, just ages – 34 and 44.

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The Canadian newspapers, on the other hand, are not shy of mentioning the names of Rodney Baker, 55, president and CEO of a Canadian casino company, and his 32-year-old Russian wife, Ekaterina Baker, an aspiring actress. The Bakers first flew from Vancouver to Whitehorse, a good four-hour flight. Canadian law required them to self -isolate for 14 days. However, they took a charter flight to Beaver creek, a small community of about 100 people near the Alaska border.

Yukon’s rural communities are a priority group because they are more vulnerable to Covid-19. They are so remotely located; they have little access to health services or a hospital. The government has organized mobile vaccination clinics especially for the Yukon residents.

Rodney and Ekaterina Baker went to one such mobile clinic.

“Both of us work at a motel nearby.” Ekaterina gave the name of the motel and a charming smile. Both were given the Moderna vaccine.

They then began asking for a ride to the airport from passing cars.  “Airport?” people wondered. Why would anyone wish to go to the small airport in this lockdown time? An enforcement unit person called the airport and asked them to check who the couple was. A mobile clinic member called the motel, who said no such people work there. The couple was charged $2300 penalty.

“We didn’t anticipate anyone would go to this length to effectively deceive the team to get vaccinated.” The government official said.

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Let me continue with the story at the beginning of this article, which happened on 17 February with the two unnamed ladies. On reaching the center, the 33-year-old put on her granny glasses. At the counter, they showed their appointment letters and the CDC cards.

“Your driving licence, please”, the man at the counter said.

“When we got the first shot, nobody asked us for a licence.” Said the lady making her voice as trembling as possible. “You see the CDC card shows we have had our first shot. We have come for the second.”

The staff member insisted on seeing both the driving licences. He then called his manager. This center was allowed to vaccinate only people older than 65. The geriatric disguise still couldn’t beat the ages on the driving licences.

Trespass warnings were issued against them. Since the ladies were not charged, their names can’t be disclosed. By the way, they were denied the second shot they had come for.

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Newspapers in the USA and Europe are full of such stories. Vaccines are a scarce commodity, and hundreds of people are using every available trick in the book to getting vaccinated at the expense of someone more in need.

But then, they are simply following the example of their nation. The world’s richest countries have reserved one billion more doses than their citizens need. Africa, as a result, may not receive any vaccines this year.

Ravi                                              

Corona Daily 178: Grey’s Pandemic Anatomy

Prime time TV shows now face a huge dilemma. Should the scripts reflect pandemic reality? Should the characters wear masks? Or should the covid-fatigued viewers be treated to fantasy life by creating content without coronavirus?

Grey’s Anatomy, a globally well-known show, decided it carried a responsibility to include the pandemic, the story of a lifetime for most people. It spent the entire season battling the pandemic, with several lead characters, including Ellen Pompeo’s Meredith Grey getting ill with covid. Many indoor scenes were moved to a lawn outside the writers’ bungalow, which now doubled up as Meredith Grey’s backyard.

Masks are another serious problem for actors. To deliver facial expressions and lines in close-ups is a challenge. Grey’s Anatomy gave its doctors clear plastic coverings to talk to the patients. Through the plastic face shields, the actors’ faces were completely visible.

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There is a significant time lag between scriptwriting, shooting and the show going on air. Scripts written in winter may appear the next summer or autumn. That has been another challenge showrunners have confronted. When writing stories for a long season, generally scriptwriters know what the world is going to look like in the future. But in 2020, particularly before the announcement of the vaccines, scriptwriters didn’t know the shape of the future. Shows had three choices: make pandemic the theme, give it a background role, or ignore it.

Most sitcoms, particularly the new series, went for the third option, because they are hopeful of re-runs in future. Chuck Lorre, the creator of The Big Bang Theory, said he has always been a believer in making comedies that do not carry a heavy time stamp. That is why he would avoid pandemics and bell bottoms.

Mr Mayor, a show that premiered on NBC last month decided to include a punchline: “Dolly Parton bought everybody a vaccine.”

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Last Man Standing, a family sitcom, decided to skip ahead and show the events happening from 2023 onwards. Kevin Abbott, its showrunner, felt most decent pandemic jokes would have been told by then. Anyway, the script was not particularly suited to include pandemic references.

The Good Doctor went for a compromise. It showed two episodes focused on the coronavirus and then jumped ahead a few years to a normal world.

Superstore takes place in a store. The producers felt it would be odd to show business as usual. It’s a sitcom, so they handle the pandemic lightly. They shifted many scenes to a huge airy warehouse set so the characters could observe social distance.

Some writers have been creative. They show seaside fantasy sequences, or dreams or flashbacks to allow romance and passionate hugging and kissing without masks.

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This Is Us had completed its fourth season just before the lockdown last spring. Episodes of the fifth season were already written. Considerable rewriting was needed to include the pandemic. Family members casually flying here and there were suddenly stopped from travelling and sometimes couldn’t see one another. Stories of pregnancy and adoption underwent adjustments.

In general, currently there are more outdoor scenes and fewer interior location shoots. Courtroom dramas include fewer jury trials. Crowd scenes are limited, extras in the background are reduced or reused.

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With India’s strict prolonged lockdown, many Hindi serials were cancelled and taken off air for good. Family dramas now often actively propagate masks, sanitisers and social distancing. In Yeh Rishta Kya Kahlata Hai (What does this relationship stand for) characters interact while wearing masks. In one episode, the husband offers his wife a sanitizer bottle, and then helps her wear gloves and a face shield. That is the scriptwriter’s way to show intimacy in corona times.

Ravi 

Corona Daily 179: Privileged Peruvians

Three years ago, in March 2018, Martin Vizcarra, the new President of Peru, was a breath of clean and non-corrupt air. A former regional governor with no political party and no connections, he sympathized with Peruvian citizens furious at the series of corruption scandals. In the previous months, wiretapped phone calls between judges, criminals and politicians had revealed how the three parties colluded to rob the people and remain powerful and free.

Vizcarra replaced Kuchynski.

Just 19 months into his planned five-year tenure, Pedro Kuczynski had resigned due to links with Odebrecht, a Brazilian construction giant at the centre of Latin America’s biggest corruption scandal.

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In recent history, Alberto Fujimori, Peru’s President (1990-2000) was convicted for his role in killings and kidnappings, illegal searches and seizures, embezzlement in millions. Under the nation’s law, all sentences run concurrently, so he got away with a sentence of 25 years. Fujimori’s tenure in prison would be much longer than his presidency.

Martin Vizcarra shared the indignation of the public. He promised to be Peru’s first moral president.

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Impeachments happen not only in America. On 9 November 2020, Martin Vizcarra was impeached over corruption allegations and mishandling of the pandemic. Accused of accepting bribes for $800,000 as a governor, he duly denied the accusations and said he was leaving with a clean conscience. Many citizens and observers felt this was not an amount that was grave enough to warrant impeachment. Each politician, particularly the President, must be given some allowance for corruption. Anyway, Vizcarra was removed on grounds of what Peru calls “moral incapacity”.

Manuel Merino, the next president, lasted five days. In the polls, 72% of Peruvians disapproved of Merino. Large scale protests began. Heavy-handed police response resulted in the death of a few protestors. Merino’s ministers resigned, and he followed. He is being investigated for possible violations of human rights.

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In December, Peru crossed the figure of one million cases. With 44,000 deaths till date, Peru is one of the worst suffering Latin American countries. Despite that, not a single vaccine has been administered.

Local media did some investigative work, and found out that the former President Martin Vizcarra and his wife were secretly vaccinated in October, while still in office. Vizcarra tried to say they were part of a clinical trial, but the university in charge of the trials denied that claim. (In any case, to avoid conflict of interest, decision makers are usually not allowed to take part in a trial).

The Chinese makers of Sinopharm confirmed they had given a complimentary 2000 doses in addition to the trial doses. Where did those doses disappear?

Other than he and his wife, Vizcarra admitted his brother was also vaccinated.

On 12 February, Pilar Mazzetti, the health minister resigned. Just a few days before, she had publicly declared she would be immunized only after everyone working in the health system is vaccinated. “The captain is the last to leave the ship. Those of us at the head of the institutions have to set an example to wait for our moment properly” she had said. The public who admired her were shocked to learn she had secretly taken the shots.

On 15 February, Elizabeth Astete, Peru’s foreign minister, resigned. In January, she had authorized the purchase of 1 million vaccine doses of Sinopharm, and secretly taken a shot soon thereafter.  She realized it was a mistake, and to atone it promises not to take a second shot secretly.

Until now, 487 people including the former prime minister’s family, several former and current ministers, senior government officials have been found to have taken the shots secretly since September. The current president Francisco Sagasti said Peruvians should feel outraged about the situation that jeopardizes the effort of the frontline health workers. The full list of those vaccinated has been sent to an investigation commission by the new Health Minister.

Oscar Ugarte is the fifth health minister of Peru since the pandemic began.

*****

Ravi 

Corona Daily 180: The Resilience of Bhutan

76-year-old American tourist Bert Hewitt and his wife landed in Bhutan in the beginning of March 2020. The couple mingled with locals to celebrate an annual festival in Punakha. The next day, he complained of stomach trouble and breathlessness. His oxygen level was ominously low. When tested, he became the first case of coronavirus in Bhutan. A cancer survivor, with his spleen removed, Hewitt also had high blood pressure.

One of the least developed nations, Bhutan dreaded the potential entry of the virus in the kingdom. Health officials immediately went into a contact tracing overdrive. It took them 6 hours and 18 minutes to trace nearly 300 contacts. 75 direct contacts were moved to quarantine facilities, and 225 isolated at home. King Jigme Khesar Namgyel Wangchuck supervised the process personally, staying up through the night. He sent Hewitt a pair of blue silk pajamas and a bedspread. Strangers sent letters and flowers to the hospital.

Still on a ventilator, Hewitt was evacuated in a specialized aircraft with a biocontainment unit to the USA. When he woke up after ten days, an American doctor told him, “whatever they tried in Bhutan probably saved your life.”

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Bhutan, the Himalayan kingdom sandwiched between India and China, is one of the few remarkable nations that has been independent throughout its history. For a population of 760,000, Bhutan has only 337 doctors, one PCR machine to test coronavirus, and a single doctor with advanced training in critical care. Its per person GDP is only $3412, but the kingdom measures its wealth in GNH (Gross National Happiness). (My series on Bhutan 1,2,3,4,5 tells you how GNH is not posturing, but a well-defined quantitative measurement). Bhutan has a fairly open border of 700 km with India.

In the last twelve months, Bhutan has had one coronavirus death.

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At the beginning and later in August, Bhutan followed a 21-day nationwide lockdown. Lotay Tshering, Bhutan’s Prime Minister, is a respected doctor and surgeon. During the lockdown, he decided to sleep in his office (see picture above). The cabinet ministers, senior officials and key staff across all ministries also decided not to go home. This was to avoid taking the virus home, and also to be able to work physically as the government’s top team. Some ministers cooked for one another. The Prime minster performed surgeries through the week. Members of parliament donated a month’s salary. Hotels offered free rooms for quarantine. Farmers donated crops. When lights in the Health Ministry’s office were on in the night, locals brought hot tea and homemade food for the officials.

The King set up a relief fund. $19 million have been distributed among 34,000 Bhutanese who lost their income. The program continues at least till the end of March 2021. During lockdowns, the government organized deliveries of food, medicine and essentials to all households. The government has created a registry of vulnerable citizens. Care packs including sanitizers, vitamins, masks were sent to 51,000 Bhutanese above 60 years of age.

Since schools were shut, lessons were organized on TV channels. Study materials were distributed to children living in rural areas.

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In November 2020, WHO singled out Bhutan for its health emergency readiness.

In 2018 itself, Bhutan along with the WHO representatives had evaluated its emergency readiness. An emergency operations center was established following the evaluation. Bhutan invested in MCK tents (Medical Camp Kit), quickly convertible into health care facilities. Tents were used in the pandemic for screening patients as well as treating them away from non-covid patients. In November 2019, the Health Ministry conducted a simulation exercise at the Paro International airport, Bhutan’s only airport. The scenario talked about a passenger from abroad bringing in a virus. The exercise included the police, armed forces, aviation, customs, flight crews and others.

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Bhutan has 760,000 people. Big nations can object to taking lessons from the tiny kingdom. But Big nations are made of thousands of small Bhutans. In a pandemic, local action may be even more important than national action.

Ravi 

Corona Daily 181: Virus Math: Step-by-Step

Dr Christian Yates, a Mathematician at UK’s Bath university, was asked to calculate the total volume of the Covid-19 virus in the world. If it was possible to collect in one place all virus particles from all the infected humans, how much space would that collection occupy? A small room? A soccer field? A stadium?  His step-by-step calculations and the result they led to are fascinating.

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The first step is to estimate the total number of covid infected people in the world. (Viruses in animals and those lingering in air or on surfaces are ignored). Recently, the number of daily cases has declined from a high of 800,000 to 400,000. Dr Yates takes half a million people testing positive every day as the base estimate. This number, however, doesn’t include the asymptomatic cases, and those unable or unwilling to test. The models of IHME (Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluations) estimate the true number to be 3 million cases every day.

When 3 million cases are added every day for seven days (average time the virus lasts in a human body), it gives 21 million people who at any given point of time are likely to carry some amount of virus.

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Having ascertained the 21 million infected humans, the volume of virus (viral load) in them should be estimated. Studies have shown people infected six days ago carry the highest viral load. Before and after that day, the virus quantum declines. A study measured the virus particles in grammes in monkeys, and extrapolated to humans. The viral load ranges from 1 billion to 100 billion virus particles. Dr Yates has taken 10 billion particles as the geometric (not arithmetic) mean.

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The next step is to multiply the number of infected people (21 million) by the volume (10 billion particles). Rounding it off gives a large figure of two hundred quadrillion, or two hundred million billion. (2x10¹⁷). This number may be intimidating. It is almost as large as the number of grains of sand on earth. But then the SARS-CoV-2 particles are much smaller than a grain of sand. To calculate the space they will occupy, the size of the virus must be taken into the equation.

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The diameter of the covid virus is estimated to be about 100 nanometres. Billion nanometres make a meter. By way of perspective, Dr Yates compares it to a human hair which is a 1000 times thicker than the virus.

The virus being spherical, we use the sphere volume equation we learnt (or didn’t) in school days (V = 4 π r³/3). With a radius of 50 nanometre (If nothing else, each of us probably remembers radius being half of diameter), the volume of a single virus particle is 523,000 cubic nanometres.

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Having estimated the total number of viruses existing at any given time (2x10¹⁷), and the size or volume of each (523,000 cubic nanometres), Dr Yates uses more formulas and adjustments to get the final result. The total volume of the covid virus in the world is about 120 ml (millilitres). Since the microscopic particles are sphere-shaped, they will leave gaps when packed together. (Like round oranges in a box). Statisticians estimate this empty space between round balls to be 26%. Taking that into account, the total collected volume of the Covid-19 virus is 160 ml. Dr Yates compares it to a standard Coke can which is more than double this size.

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The world’s entire covid virus population can be fitted in half of a Coke can. Just like an atom in an atom bomb, it shows that size doesn’t matter when it comes to massive destruction and devastation.

Ravi 

Corona Daily 182: Astronauts on Valentine’s Day

Jancee Dunn, the author of “How Not to Hate Your Husband After Kids” offers an interesting perspective on this very different Valentine’s day. Many people are imprisoned in their houses, working remotely or perhaps jobless. In an NYT article this week, she seeks advice from astronauts and submarine commanders. After all, their professions require them to remain in prolonged isolation with a few others under extreme conditions.

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Jane Poynter was one of the eight crew members, part of the mission Biosphere-2 (1991-1993). The experiment was to check the viability of ecological systems to support human life in outer space. She said the first couple of months were fine. Beyond four months, it became a “long duration isolation” and people started freaking out.   

Establishing regular routines was important to feel normal. But occasionally they needed to create some sort of a positive event, some celebration. Jane Poynter spent two years away from normal life in the early 1990s. Even managing a phone call with someone was a big event then.

She also found that creating different environments within Biosphere-2’s living space was helpful. She suggests making similar compartments during the pandemic. For example, making work calls on zoom at the desk, exercising on a yoga mat in another space, reading books in another corner of the living room.

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Chris Hadfield, a retired Canadian astronaut lived in space for six months. To cope, he suggests accepting the full reality of the situation. This isn’t a timeout, an interruption or an imposition on your life, he says. This is your life.

With life so radically altered, pre-pandemic rituals are important, says David Marquet, a retired submarine commander. He once spent 87 days underwater, isolated, closeted with a few colleagues and never able to see the sun. He said festivals like Valentine’s day were crucial for raising their depressed spirits. On the submarine they tried to maintain a calendar and replicate holidays. They put the necessary decorations on each holiday. That allowed them to maintain the rhythm of the year and rhythm of their life. Without such underwater celebrations, they would have been completely cut from life on land.

When the submarine crew went out from January to June, families prepared Valentine’s day cards in December. They were kept in a sealed box and opened only on 14 February. David Marquet feels this sense of ritual is important for human beings, and what is true for astronauts and submarine crew is true for people locked down during the pandemic.

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Mike Massimino, a former NASA astronaut confirms setting routines on space shuttle missions was vital to boost spirits. Having a set schedule, he says, is very important in space. If there is nothing on the schedule, the mind starts wandering.

Jeffrey Donenfeld worked as a cook in Antarctica for three months. What got the group through was their sense of mission. They were all together in it, they kept on repeating. Now in the pandemic, he says the same to his wife and family. “We’re having tough times, let’s just stick together and stay safe and we’ll get through this.”

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Astronaut Chris Hadfield made it a point to send flowers to his wife, Helene, on Valentine’s day. Jancee Dunn asked him whether he had arranged for the delivery before he left for the Space Station mission.

No, said Astronaut Hadfield. He simply called the flower shop from space.

Ravi   

Corona Daily 183: Are Your Ears Hurting?

Joe Biden has requested Americans to wear masks for the first one hundred days of his presidency. CDC has this month asked people to wear two masks, one over the other, for additional protection. (Joe Biden does). Many European countries have introduced strict regulations about masks in public places. Most masks have tautly stretched ear loops, causing ears to become sore and start hurting. Taut elastic ear loops can damage the backs of our ears. Nurses and other health workers are particularly vulnerable.

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Mask efficacy is studied nearly as enthusiastically as vaccine efficacy. There are fears vaccines may not be effective against certain variants. Not the case with masks. Masks protect you from viruses equally, no matter which variant.

CDC conducted experiments in January to test effectiveness of different mask combos. The experiments included dummy heads and simulated coughs. A three-ply surgical mask blocked 42% of particles from a simulated cough, and a three-ply cloth mask blocked 44%. But a cloth mask over a medical mask blocked 92% of particles.

Double masking can put an even greater pressure on the ears.

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Creating products connected with masks is a whole new industry.

Anti-fog spray for glasses saves bespectacled people from touching their glasses all the time. When they take a deep breath under their mask, the glasses get fogged up. This spray and the portable dry wipes solve that problem.

Transparent masks help the deaf or partly deaf people and patients lip-read. Beaded mask chains allow you to put on and take off masks without putting them aside. Matt non-smearing lipstick is available for women. Wireless headphones are sold to keep the masks intact. Face mask holders are little colorful purses to keep the masks clean. Mask refreshing sprays and moisture absorbent masks make sure the mask remains fresh in sweaty conditions. You also can buy a mask-hanger that hangs the mask and your keys or jewelry together so you don’t forget the mask when leaving the house.

The maximum innovations, however, have tried to keep our ears safe.

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 The key element in all novel products is to find a substitute for ears to loop the mask around.

Headbands with buttons on both sides are one option. The buttons are placed behind the ears. (Or you can sew them on). Rather than looping the mask around the ears, it is looped around the buttons. This takes the pressure off the skin and increases comfort.

Paper clips or strap clips are used in another variation. If you don’t mind wearing a headgear, baseball caps or hats with buttons on sides are available.

Face mask extenders connect the ear straps and extend them to wrap around the back of your head.

Women or (men with long hair) have more natural options. You can tie your hair long enough to make a ponytail or bun. The mask straps are then hooked to the bun instead of the ears. Women can have two pigtails on the sides, like in the 1950s films.

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Moisture and friction can cause irritation, prolonged mask use can irritate sensitive skin. Mask straps rubbing against the ears create friction that can result in inflammation and blistering. This may cause open wounds or skin scabbing, increasing the risk of an ear infection. Using silicon-foam dressing (like on a wound) before wearing a mask is one suggestion. In hot or humid weather, cotton mask and cotton ear ties are better. People wearing masks for long durations are advised to include ears in their skin care routine. They may want to apply Vaseline petroleum jelly or honey on sore ears.

Unless your uniform forbids it, you may consider neck gaiters or simple handkerchiefs to cover your face. You may look like a bank robber, but your ears will not hurt.

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We must make sure that in order to avoid the coronavirus, we don’t end up getting an ear infection.

Ravi 

Corona Daily 184: What Happened to Flu-20?

This is strange and unusual.

Usually, about twice a year, most members of my gym start coughing in the same month. Some complain of a sore throat, runny nose, sinusitis and headache, occasional fever. The symptoms last for a good two to four weeks. Cough and common cold have become more tenacious in the last decade. The general public, less fit than my gym colleagues, also experience ‘the flu’ annually. Because we are Indians, we never take flu vaccines. We suffer, carry on with our life, infecting one another, until the season is over.

I don’t want to jinx it, but I have not had any of these symptoms in the last ten months. 2020 was probably the first flu-less year in my life. And I find this is true for many of my friends, relatives and neighbours. My octogenarian parents are also healthier during the pandemic. Where is the flu-virus 2020-21 hiding?

I will move from empirical evidence, to official statistics. In the flu season 2019-20, USA had 22 million influenza cases, 210,000 hospitalizations and 12,000 deaths. This year, almost nothing. In countries where influenza is tracked, numbers are down by 99.5%. The American CDC map, always red in February, is completely green this year. It’s not that Americans or Europeans have not tested for influenza. Almost all tests have been negative.

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As we well know, the flu virus and Covid-19 are both respiratory and spread in a similar manner. Tiny particles of mucus or saliva spew out when people cough, sneeze, talk or breathe. Handshaking, hugging, being together in a room can enable transmission.

Evidently, the containment measures we take for the coronavirus; masks, hand hygiene and social distancing have helped barricade the flu virus as well. Equally important is our reduced travel, closed offices (and gyms), shut schools and day cares. Children are great transmitters of flu.  

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There is another interesting theory.

It talks about viral interference, the phenomenon of viruses affecting each other. It was noticed in the eighteenth century by Edward Jenner, the English developer of the smallpox vaccine. He would inoculate people with a mild cowpox virus. But when a patient had herpes or another infection, the smallpox vaccine didn’t work. It was almost as if the immune system wouldn’t allow two infections at once.

In September 2009, the H1N1 swine flu had landed in Portugal, Spain and the UK. France prepared for the epidemic. Indeed, the number of cases with respiratory symptoms soon went up. But the infected people didn’t seem to have H1N1. It so happened that France already had rhinovirus, which causes colds. The French population was infected with that virus, and the common cold virus deflected the swine flu. Many studies have been conducted and papers written. They find that people rarely have two viruses at the same time.

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While we are happy about the current low profile of the flu virus, researchers and vaccine developers are worried. The flu virus mutates every year, and new vaccines are developed to fight new mutations. More than 100 countries conduct year-round surveillance by testing thousands of flu virus samples. WHO analyses the data in five centers located in the USA, UK, Australia, Japan and China.

In February, WHO representatives, scientists, academicians review the surveillance results, make predictions for the flu virus next season, and recommend the composition of the flu vaccine. (In September, a similar exercise is done for countries in the southern hemisphere). It takes six months to develop and manufacture the new flu vaccines. Americans are usually advised to take them in October.

The flu’s absence is unsettling for the researchers. They have been starved of data crucial for forecasting and developing vaccines. They are not sure when, how, and in what form the flu will return.

Ravi 

Corona Daily 185: The Future Normal is Holographic

Letters. Stationary phone. Fax. Pager. Cellphone. Messenger. WhatsApp. Facetime. Zoom. What’s next? Holograms, of course.

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Last month, ARHT Media, a Canadian company launched HoloPad, a 3D display system that beams presenters from remote locations into meetings and conferences. At a hologram-enabled innovation summit in Singapore, an executive from Los Angeles performed live.

In the same month, a 3-D graphics company Imverse exhibited their product at the CES global tech conference. Its software enables hologram collaboration within virtual meeting rooms. Imverse tries to use smartphones and inexpensive in-depth cameras. Its goal is to replace 2-D video calls with 3-D conversations.  

Most white-collar workers assume they may never return to the traditional ‘commute-work-commute-sleep at home’ pattern. In a recent American survey only 11% of employees thought they would return to pre-pandemic work routine. Some sort of hybrid system will be developed where people will combine working from home and in office. How to best connect remote and in-office work? Holographic technology offers the middle ground.

Facetime or Zoom, though way advanced than our communication two decades ago, present only headshots in 2-D. Holograms offer the entire person, allowing body language so essential in human interaction. When without wearing any 3-D glasses you see somebody in a live hologram, and they appear to be in 3-D, your brain tells you they are in the same room.

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On the remote side, the presenter (say in Los Angeles) usually stands in front of a green screen, and looks at a shot of the (Singapore) audience on the monitor. Meanwhile, cameras capture the speaker from all angles. At the backend worksite, someone rolls the HoloPod, turns on a computer and connects to a live stream. A hologram photographically records a light field rather than an image formed by a lens. The current demonstrations still lack perfect clarity, viewers know it’s not the real person. Still, it succeeds in being in the presence of a life-size, 3-D representation of people.

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Live simultaneous music concerts are a real possibility. Michael Jackson may have missed it, but Justin Beiber or Taylor Swift will be able to perform live in London, Paris, Rome and New York at the same time. India’s PM Narendra Modi actually used the technology to give election speeches at thousands of venues. They were pre-recorded and played locally, but even in a small town; people could attend standing only a few feet away from the 3-D Modi. In a country of 900 million voters, this technology will become essential for charismatic leaders.

In theory, Madonna can sing inside your house, and Obama can join you at the dining table. But the hardware is currently too expensive. Only big companies and plush events can afford holographic technology.

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The company Blank XR goes a step ahead and tries to create what is called a mixed reality. Shah Rukh Khan will dance and give a personalized speech at your daughter’s wedding. How is that done? The company captures Shah Rukh Khan with 360-degree cameras. His voice is cloned based on audio clips. The rest is done by the Artificial Intelligence software. At your daughter’s wedding, AI will put the names of your family members in Shah Rukh Khan’s speech. The more information the artist chooses to feed, the more accurate his holo-clone will be. Blank XR specializes in mixing AI with video and sound manipulation.

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Last Sunday, at the Florida Superbowl final, one of the world’s most watched events, the opening speech was given by the legendary football coach Vince Lombardi. It was not him, but his hologram. The hologram talked about the current pandemic situation as well. Not everyone applauded, particularly since Vince Lombardi has been dead for fifty years.

Walt Disney Co. has a written policy of not creating holograms of dead people.

Ravi