Corona Daily 201: A Riotous January

2021 has started with riots. This month, violent protests have happened in at least seven countries.  

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The Dutch government banned all school parties (no birthdays, costume shows, musicals) from 4 January to 12 February. Starting 23 January, Netherlands has curfew between 21.00 and 04.30, a first since World War II. Fine for violations is 95 Euros ($115). Coronavirus seems to have no knowledge of Brexit. Its UK variant is effortlessly moving from Britain to Europe. The Dutch government is naturally worried. Bars and restaurants have been closed since October, schools and shops were shut in December.

Since last weekend, protesters gathered in at least ten cities defying the lockdown, attacking police, looting stores, and destroying property. On Sunday, police deployed dogs, water cannons and horse-riding officers to disperse a demonstration in central Amsterdam. Two hundred arrests were made. In Urk, young people set ablaze a coronavirus testing centre, as if that was a way to reduce the number of cases.

Eindhoven in the South saw the worst violence, with rioters throwing stones, knives and fireworks at the police, damaging the railway station. The mayor called them “the scum of the earth” and feared the Netherlands was headed towards civil war.  

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Israel, with a sudden increase in cases has introduced a strict lockdown. From today, Israel’s only International airport will be shut for a week. The ultra-orthodox Jewish community had sought exemptions from lockdowns, arguing their customs don’t allow forgoing religious education, gatherings for weddings, funerals and worship.

On Sunday, as the police tried to clear religious gatherings and classes, the orthodox crowd started throwing rocks on them. Rioters burned trash and toppled street signs and light poles in several cities across Israel. In Bnei Brak, a bus driver was pulled out, attacked with pepper spray, and the bus completely torched. Several surrounding buildings were evacuated as the blaze damaged electrical lines. In some places, police used stun grenades and water cannons.

Secular Israelis are upset because the recklessness of the ultra-orthodox areas is nullifying the lockdown efforts of others. Haredi communities (ultra-orthodox) account for 35% infection, though they make up only 10% of the population. Images of Haredi weddings and crowded synagogues are going viral on social media.

Israeli elections happen on average every six months, the next one is in March. PM Netanyahu needs the support of the ultra-orthodox Jews for his coalition. He is relaxed about enforcing restrictions on this community.

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Since last weekend violent protests have erupted in at least 15 locations across Tunisia. More than 600 people have been arrested, most of them aged 15-25. Army is on the streets, protecting government buildings. The riots are in response to declining living conditions, poverty and unemployment. Unemployment among young has risen from 15% pre-pandemic to 36%. Tunisia has lost its vital tourism sector, including ancillary industries that provide goods and services to tourist resorts.  

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On 6 January, while Trump’s army was raiding Capitol Hill, in Hong Kong the Chinese government was busy arresting pro-democracy opposition. More than 1000 officers arrested 53 individuals (including one American) accusing them of “subverting state power”. On the pretext of the pandemic, Hong Kong elections have been postponed by a year to September 2021. The arrested individuals were potential candidates who had dared to run unofficial primaries.

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On 23 January, 3700 Russians were arrested during anti-Putin protests across Russia. Alexei Navalny, a 44-year-old brave man with nine lives, survived Novichok poison in his underwear (no limits to the depths Putin can reach to get rid of his opponents). Despite threats, Navalny returned from Germany and was duly imprisoned for fictional crimes by a court-in-name-only. He then released a remarkable two-hour film called Putin’s Palace (92 million views in one week). The Russian demonstrators finally, loudly and publicly called their dictator a thief. The next protests will happen on 31 January, and may become a weekly affair like in Belarus.

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Indian farmers are up in arms over new farm laws. In today’s tractor rally, one farmer died and eighteen cops are in hospital, one of them critical.

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Of all the January protests and riots, the Washington riot was the odd one out. It was the only one ordered by the man in power.

Ravi 

Corona Daily 202: New Luxury

In this daily column, I have talked about businesses that have boomed during the pandemic. One of them is the selling and renting of ISLANDS. Mr Krolow runs Private Islands inc for the past 22 years. 2020 was the busiest year for his company. He said he was flooded with calls, some from “young men hoping to start their own country”.

Before the pandemic, an island was a vanity purchase, a toy for ultra-rich elderly males who already owned yachts and jets. Now the new wave of island buyers is driven not by ego, but the desire to escape the virus. Some wealthy clients are so paranoid they ask for large agricultural plots on the island so as to be self-sufficient.

The billionaires who expect the pandemic to last long are using prefab homes for new construction. The prefab is put on the pallet and a helicopter drops it on the island.

For complete isolation and privacy, sometimes staff stay on a smaller island close by. By turning the lights on, the owner can summon them in small boats.

The island buyers want their safe haven to be peaceful as well. Recently a lovely island in the eastern Mediterranean, a real bargain for $7.4 million, didn’t find buyers because both Turkey and Greece have claims on the surrounding waters.  

Some of the well-known populated islands were bought in previous centuries. The Dutch had purchased Manhattan in 1626 for $24. As to the islands offering protection, this is what Shakespeare wrote in Richard II.

This fortress built by nature for herself, against infection and the hand of war,

Which serves it in the office of a wall, Or as a moat defensive to a house,

Against the envy of less happier lands, this blessed plot, this earth, this realm, this England.  

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British billionaires were obsessed with Greek islands in the past. Now they prefer isolating in the Seychelles or the Irish sea. North Americans have shifted their preference from the South Pacific to Bahamas, Belize and Panama. Bahamas is close to the USA, has no taxes, is economically and politically stable, and offers speedy internet.

Travel restrictions have been one of the problems for brokers as well as buyers. In July, a 157-acre Horse Island off the coast of Ireland was on the market for £ 5 million ($6.5 million). An unnamed European man fell in love with the scenery, the seven houses, a pier, helipad, gym, tennis court, all of which he watched on video. The package included own electricity, water and sewage systems, three beaches, and farming pastures. The mystery buyer bought the Horse island without visiting it.

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Twitter’s owner Jack Dorsey now lives on an island in French Polynesia, thousands of miles from the USA. He blocked Donald Trump while enjoying the safety of his island. Kim Kardashian, a media personality, spent her 40th birthday with close family and friends on an island near Tahiti, and for the benefit of the world shared the celebrations on Instagram.

Yoshihisa Midorikawa, a Tokyo entrepreneur, bought Iseshima island, which was used for the G7 summit in 2016 after a single visit. “I wanted my own country where I wouldn’t have to worry about becoming infected with the coronavirus”, he honestly said.

Larry Page, Google’s co-founder, has chosen a modest option. He lives on his $46 million super-yacht based in Fiji. Fiji has introduced a ‘Blue Lanes’ scheme which allows yachts to enter Fiji, and the owners can quarantine on their own yachts or boats. So far, nearly 100 boats have entered Fiji under the scheme.

Maldives with 1200 small islands is another attractive destination. It recently opened Ithaafushi-the private island-spread over 32,000 square meters. It is rented out for $80,000 a night.

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The information presented here is of academic, rather than practical, interest. If you feel upset about the island buying business, I will leave you with one thought: the size of your house and the size of your happiness are not necessarily correlated.

Ravi 

Corona Daily 203: The Discovery of the UK Variant: Part Final

Professor Andrew Rambaut, who received the email from South Africa, is in charge of fitting the mutations on the evolutionary tree.

A week before that, he had noticed many genomes, mostly from Britain, with something unusual. He called Dr Ravindra Gupta to his computer to take a look. Dr Gupta is an Indian-origin HIV biologist listed by Time Magazine as one of 100 most influential people in 2020. He has a bouquet of medical degrees from Cambridge, Harvard and Oxford. He teaches at the University of Cambridge, and as luck would have it, is visiting faculty at a research institute in Durban, South Africa.

When Dr Gupta looked at the computer screen, he saw a “wow moment”. At that time, impending vaccine authorization was the biggest news, and here was a new avatar with 23 mutations, 17 of them causing changes in the protein. This rattled him.

It was as shocking as seeing a cousin with dark hair and brown eyes, on a family tree that exclusively has blond members with blue eyes.

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If Mr Covid Virus is a storyteller, he definitely loves dramatic irony.

On 2 December, Boris Johnson boasted that UK was the first country in the world to authorize a covid vaccine for humans. The poor fellow needed some antidote of good news against Brexit.

Things happened at a breakneck speed after that announcement. On 4 December, South African scientists presented to the WHO the findings about the new variants. On 8 December, the British genomicists and public health officials concluded there was a new UK variant. On 11 Dec. Neil Ferguson, the leading epidemiologist, not-so-fondly called Professor Lockdown, became very concerned and warned Johnson about the new variant. He recommended a strict lockdown. On 19 Dec. professor Rambaut released a paper about the new variant. On 22 Dec. government scientists proposed a strict lockdown including closure of schools to suppress the new variant.

Boris Johnson, so close to his Brexit dream, feeling largehearted, allowed people to gather for Christmas. He postponed the England-wide lockdown to 4 January.

Within a month of becoming the first country to approve a vaccine, UK was in the throes of the new variant. Earlier UK said the variant was only more transmissible. This week Boris Johnson said it is deadlier as well, perhaps 10%-30% more.

Today, it is spread to more than 50 countries, including Argentina which was added this week. USA scientists have predicted that by the end of March the UK variant will be the key variant in the USA.

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The variants from South Africa and Brazil are a particular threat to immunization efforts, because they both contain a mutation associated with a drop in the vaccine efficacy. A South African team analyzed 4000 different mutations to find those that would make the vaccines useless. South Africa and Brazil variants have the biggest impact.

Another team in Durban took serum, the antibody-containing blood sample, from six covid ex-patients. In all cases, the neutralizing power of the antibodies had substantially weakened, which left the scientists extremely worried.

In the UK, Dr Gupta and his team have demonstrated evidence of a reduced antibody response against the UK variant among individuals, age group 64-85, three weeks after they received the Pfizer vaccine. Though reductions were expected, more data from real life will be needed before concluding anything about the impact on vaccination.

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Next few months are critical to find out how worried we should be about the new variants. It is better to take extraordinary steps to suppress the variants where possible. Israel, probably the most successful country in vaccine implementation, on Friday tightened its lockdown. It discovered cases of the UK variant. Every day, Israel now witnesses 8000 new cases, and the rate of spread is rapid.

Today, Hancock, UK’s health secretary, said UK is a long, long, long way from easing restrictions. UK has extended its national lockdown till 17 July. That shows the level of threat posed by the new variants.

Ravi 

Corona Daily 204: The Discovery of the UK Variant

Those of you who have tested for Covid know that a person wearing PPE inserts a swab into your nostril, rotates it causing an uneasy ticklish sensation. If your travel, or job or playing sport depends on the result, you spend one or two days on tenterhooks. This is one test where a negative result is welcome.

Do you know what happens to that sample of your nasal secretions? Once the sample is analysed, in most countries, it is destroyed. Not so in Britain.

All the labs in Britain, after testing swabs for the virus, dispatch the leftover material in refrigerated vans to the Wellcome Sanger Institute, a genomics central lab. That lab stores them in spacious freezers. The robots then take over, separate the positive samples and deposit them in tiny, muffin-sized plates. Machines then map their genomes, producing 30,000 letter-long genetic codes that get uploaded to an internet library.

British biologists then decide where to place the different virus mutations on the evolutionary tree. This tree is a bit like a family tree with pictures posted against each name. Siblings may have lots of similarities to each other and to their parents. Cousins may also share certain features like the colour of eyes or hair.

Britain has generated more than 165,000 sequences, meaning analyzed and placed on the evolution tree that many mutations of the coronavirus. To give a perspective, the USA with five times larger population has sequenced 74,000, Germany 3,400.

The sequencing campaign began very early, on 4 March, when the number of infections in Britain was less than 100. A Cambridge microbiologist, Sharon Peacock, sent emails to all British genomicists, asking each one to call him back. Setting aside rivalries and egos, they formed a consortium which managed to raise £20 million ($27 million) of government funds in two weeks. The importance of this effort would be understood many months later.

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One of the several covid patients admitted to a hospital in Cambridge in May 2020 was a man in his seventies, with lymphoma. Strong anti-cancer drugs had reduced his immunity. In an isolation room, he struggled to breathe. He was given all available treatments, including plasma with antibodies from recovered patients. Every test continued to be positive, the virus refused to leave him.

He fought on for 101 days in the hospital. Britain’s sequencing efforts meant each of his swabs was analysed and sequenced. In total, the virus particles coursing through the man’s lungs were sequenced 23 times, a real scientific treasure.

The patient died in August. Because he was isolated, it was assumed he hadn’t infected anyone. His weak immune system and the prolonged infection had given the virus a playground to perform several mutations. Dr Steven Kemp, an infectious disease expert, called the patient the gold standard patient.

One of the patient’s mutations, named 69-70del, changes the shape of the spike protein. Another N501Y, can help the protein bind more tightly to human cells.

Dr Kemp searched for those changes every day in the global database. There seemed little to worry about.

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On another continent, doctors and nurses at a South African hospital group noticed a strange spike in the number of covid patients in their wards in late October. The lockdown restrictions had been relaxed; spring had started for this southern hemisphere nation. But the numbers were now growing too quickly.

“Is this a different strain?” One hospital official asked in a group email in early November. Was this the same coronavirus or a new dangerous mutation?

Professor Tulio de Oliveira, a geneticist at the Nelson Mandela School of Medicine in Durban began analyzing swabs, couriered in dry ice packages. On 1 December, he emailed Andrew Rambaut, a British scientist, and asked him to review some of his findings: a series of strange mutations on the virus’s outer surface.

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Continued tomorrow.

Ravi 

Corona Daily 205: Everybody Pees and Poops

The field technician, wearing an orange safety vest, a surgical mask, lab goggles, and plastic sleeves that covered his arms; stood at a sewer with two crowbars in his hands. He hooked the crowbars under the manhole cover and pushed it open. From inside he removed a bottle. He held the bottle filled with liquid to the light. It was not too cloudy. He carefully poured its contents into specimen tubes he was carrying. The tubes would be sent to a lab for analysis.

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Newsha Ghaeli, an Iranian who grew up in Canada, and Mariana Matus, a Mexican, are two young women who met at MIT during their PhDs. Mariana’s doctorate was in computational systems and systems biology, and Newsha's in urban studies and planning. What interested them was the sewer systems. They felt sewers were like human guts. Just as the labs can tell a lot about an individual’s health by sampling their gut, would it be possible to tell about the health of the community/ neighbourhood by sampling its sewage?

The two founded Biobot in 2017 to check the spread of opioid in the community. They procured permission to take samples from the manhole closest to their lab. They realized the manhole covers were too heavy. Initially they would ask for help, and then move in with a 20-foot pole and a container for scooping the sewage out. Not surprisingly, the job was not something to look forward to. Over time, they designed a collection device with a filter that sat inside manholes and took samples regularly in a 24-hour cycle. An intern devised a magnetic manhole-opener. Both ladies managed to fall sick and get rashes, so they developed meticulous protocols and PPE. By the time they reached this stage, covid happened.

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Biobot was the first wastewater epidemiology team in the USA to successfully detect the coronavirus. On 25 March, they launched a nationwide campaign soliciting wastewater samples. They offered their analysis free-of-cost.

As one sewer department executive said poop is a great equalizer. In the underground gutters, whites and blacks, rich and poor, homeless and presidents, kids and elderly are not distinguishable. This presents several advantages for community testing. It is a large pool of people that allows measuring where the virus is, and whether it is increasing or decreasing. Aggregate testing is of course anonymous, and can give early warnings to the public health department.

Over the last few months, Biobot analysis found that infected individuals shed the covid-19 virus in their stool, regardless of whether they have symptoms. Moreover, infected individuals shed most frequently immediately after contracting covid, and start shedding a week before the symptoms.

Individual patient testing, on the other hand, gives results for only those who test. Asymptomatic patients may never test (but they still shed the virus when infected). By the time the results are available, it may be too late to do anything about them.  

The wastewater surveillance, by tracking a community regularly, can warn much in advance. Schools can be shut or reopened. The level of restrictions can be modified.  

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This community gut analysis was used in the past by epidemiologists to track polio. But Biobot has taken this obscure practice to another level. Their reports (see a sample) track genome copies per liter of sewage. Already 400 cities in the USA are using their services. Biobot’s sewage tracking currently covers 13% of US and 6% of the Canadian population.

With the danger of recurring diseases and epidemics, this underground source to track them may become universally important.

Ravi 

Corona Daily 206: The Diblings

Bryce Cleary was a medical student when one day a woman from the hospital’s fertility clinic came looking for sperm donors. Bryce volunteered. He was told his sperm would be shipped to the other end of the USA, and a maximum of five couples would receive it. In 1989, he donated and then almost for three decades forgot all about it. His wife gave him an Ancestry.com kit for Christmas.

Three months later, Bryce was staring at the message from a young woman who was identified as his daughter by the website. And then the second, and the third. Allee, 26, wrote to him that she had gone to the fertility clinic, where the staff member had secretly given her a piece of paper: Profile for Sperm Donor 8928. Hair color: brown. Eye color: gray/blue. Occupation: professional, science related. Religion: Baptist.

Bryce Cleary was the donor 8928. Using that clue, he found, or rather his biological children found him. He was told a maximum of five, but so far there are 19. The Washington Post gives a fascinating account of his story titled Nineteen Children and Counting.

Eli Baden-Lasar’s photo-story in the NYT magazine is equally incredible. Raised by two mothers, he always knew he was conceived with the help of a sperm donor. He is an amateur photographer. He began looking for his half-siblings, get to know them, and make a photo session. He found 32. To his embarrassment, one of them was his school friend.

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The history of sperm donation started in 1884, with an older rich man and his young wife seeking treatment for conception. The doctor decided the old husband was infertile. He anesthetized the wife, and inseminated her with the sperm of the best-looking student from his class. (In 1909, the student revealed it in an article).

In the 1970s, the first Cryobanks opened in the USA. The anonymous donors were usually college students, and no paper trail was left. In the 1980s, single women and lesbians began looking around for donors. They were still anonymous, but the California Cryobank would print catalogues of their physical descriptions, without names. After AIDS, the business grew, frozen sperm was found to be safer.

In 2000, Ryan Kramer, a 10-year-old child prodigy, along with his mother, created the “Donor Sibling Registry”, for children like him to enter the donor number to find the father and half-siblings. (Sometimes called Diblings). Now, every year, the website matches at least 1000 people, most of them siblings.

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23andMe, founded in 2006, specializes in genetic testing. (A normal human cell has 23 pairs of chromosomes). You send them a saliva sample, and the company generates reports charting your ancestry and genetic predispositions. Even if you are not born of a sperm donor, you may find people related to you.

In June 2020, 23andMe published a study that showed people with type O blood may be at a lower risk of catching covid-19. (Being O+, I welcome the study). They analyzed 750,000 participants.

The Donor Sibling Registry simply relied on the donor numbers to link the half-siblings. 23andMe and Ancestry.Com go a step further and offer DNA testing for better results.

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DNA testing and advanced facial recognition software would eventually make anonymous donations impossible. There is also an adoption movement that demands each child has a right to know their biological roots. California Cryobank now makes it mandatory to reveal names to offspring once they turn 18.

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The rising costs and tedious procedures are making some women opt for the cheaper option. Euphemistically called Natural Insemination, the woman meets the man through website advertising. If he is found to be worthy, they have a physical relationship until she gets pregnant. Kyle Grody, the founder of the FB group Sperm Donation USA follows this system. As mentioned two days ago, he has sired 40 children in this natural fashion.

With the climbing sperm costs in the pandemic, this ancient method of donation may become popular.

Ravi   

Corona Daily 207: Not an Easy Donation

Even before the pandemic, sperm donation was not an easy business. Each country follows its own logic in introducing regulations. Britain and the Netherlands have made anonymous sperm donation illegal, contributing to sperm shortages. France and Spain hold a contradictory view insisting donors must be anonymous. In Canada, payments to donors are prohibited, in most European countries their expenses can be compensated. USA regulations are more flexible. In Hong Kong and Switzerland, only married straight couples are eligible for treatment with donor sperm. France, surprisingly, also excludes lesbians and single women. This legal mess has created an opportunity for sperm traders to export sperm. All they need to trade sperm is dry ice, the internet and DHL.

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Globally, the sperm business is over $4 billion. But it is not simple.

California Cryobank and Fairfax Cryobank, USA’s two largest sperm banks approve only about 1% of the applicants. Among the key reasons for rejection are low sperm count, donors with health issues, or sperm not doing well after freezing.

White donors must be at least 5 feet 9 inches tall. Shorter people are not eligible, because clients don’t want them. Black or Brown donors can be shorter, but sperm donation is not popular among them. (And white women may not want their sperm).

Donors should be willing to sacrifice their love life. Between donations, they are required to practice abstinence to keep the sperm count and quality high. With two visits a week to the sperm bank for several months, sex has no place between visits.

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FDA requires that the sperm is frozen for six months, and the donor is retested after six months. This is to make sure he doesn’t suffer from AIDS or other diseases. To the innumerable tests, Covid tests are a new addition. Sperm banks don’t pay until the sperm is ready for sale and the donor is added to the bank’s catalogue.

Other than the innumerable tests, including physical, psychological, personality, S.T.D screening, the donor gives blood, urine and semen (this one is not for sale) samples. He then fills a bunch of forms. He must specify his drug use, sexual history, talents, goals in life, education, all the places he has traveled to recently. His features are scrutinized, he should provide a childhood and adult photo, and write an essay or tape an interview. The potential buyer may want to listen to his voice or read his essay.

Genetic testing is added to the tests. Ashkenazi Jews are tested for a maximum number of genetic disorders. The reason could be their strictly marrying within the community, risking inbreeding.

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Donating sperm is not at the donor’s convenience, but the sperm bank’s. They are normally open during office hours from Monday to Friday. This is one operation that has not switched to work-from-home.

Currently, the reopened American sperm banks are trying to make it safe for the few men who are willing to visit them. Only a small number is allowed to donate every hour. They undergo thermal screening, covid tests. Masks must be worn at all times, except during the process of donation.

Pre-pandemic, the reputed sperm banks were already investing close to $2000 per donor for recruitment and testing. They require an agreement for the donor to commit at least one visit per week for 6 to 12 months. An active young man donating twice a week might earn $1500 a month.

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There is no legal limit, but the biggest sperm banks have established policies that one donor’s sperm will not be allowed to father more than 25 to 30 kids.

As to whether the donors can get in touch with their children I will discuss tomorrow.

Ravi 

Corona Daily 208: The Sperm World

Another industry stirred by the coronavirus pandemic is the Sperm World. With the industry not strictly regulated, accurate numbers are difficult to find. In the 1980s, research had estimated the number of children born by donor sperm in the USA was between 30,000 and 60,000 every year. Now with the legalization of gay marriages and gay unions in many countries, the market has dramatically expanded.

In the estimate of Sperm banks in the developed world (USA, Europe, Australia), about 20% of sperm bank clients are infertile straight couples, 60% are gay women, and 20% are single mothers wanting to have and raise own children without a male partner.

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Two things have happened since the start of the pandemic. The demand has shot up everywhere, reaching record levels in the USA, England, Australia and Canada. People working from home (perhaps naïvely) think life now has the flexibility that will allow them to have children. It may also be a way to reduce the gloom or quarantine loneliness.

On the other hand, supply of sperm has dramatically declined, (or should I say drying up). Big sperm banks are running low. To meet the growing demand, men were visiting sperm banks regularly for years. In coronavirus times, they were scared to go. During lockdowns, new donor recruitment stopped, and hasn’t yet restarted. “Smart sperm”, aspired to by many, has become difficult to get.

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What is smart sperm? Graduate sperm. Preferably bright graduate sperm. You can’t blame a woman for wishing her sperm donor is from Harvard or Stanford. As a matter of fact, many big sperm banks are located near elite colleges. They have sperm collection centers in Palo Alto near Stanford university, and Cambridge, near Harvard university. It’s a mutually beneficial arrangement where academically bright young men can perpetuate their stock by spreading fifty or so biological children around the world.

College educated sperm is something women are willing to pay more for. In pre-pandemic times, those donors would go to a bank once or twice a week over months to produce enough sperm to sell to dozens of families.

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Sperm prices have gone up. But the bigger disturbance in the Sperm World is that women are joining unregulated Facebook groups to bypass the sperm banks. The FB groups connect the buyers and the potential donors, getting rid of the middlemen. Kyle Gordy, 29, has founded a private FB group “Sperm Donation USA” that already has 12700 members. Gordy himself has sired 35 children till date, with five more on the way. Private donors are super-busy. They can contact the mothers-to-be directly.  

England and Australia make it illegal for sperm donors to charge significant amounts of money (even if they are from Harvard or Oxford). In the USA, FDA regulates sperm donation the way it regulates tissue donation. A donor must donate sperm of his free will. Payment should never be his primary motivation. Usually, the payments are considered as reimbursement for travel and time.

Though donors are technically not allowed to charge for donation, buying sperm from a sperm bank is expensive for the buyer. Each vial from a premium sperm bank can cost up to $1100. The bank guarantees a vial will have 10-15 million total motile sperm. Each month, during the prospective mother’s ovulation, her doctor unthaws the vial and injects the sperm.

Sperm banks recommend buying four or five vials per child, since the process can take months for a successful pregnancy. Donors are in demand. If a woman wants to have two children from the same donor, she needs to invest at least $10,000.

In the pandemic, the sperm king donors are exhausted. They are flying and driving around; shipping sperm in vials; taking the latest DNA tests because that is what modern women demand.

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Continued tomorrow.

Ravi 

Corona Daily 209: Human Catastrophe, Markets Boom

Europe and America are stifled by lockdowns. The worldwide case count nears 100 million. Officially, 2 million have died. Jobs have been lost, businesses closing, schools shut. The world is in a catastrophic state, and the stock markets are euphoric, most indexes reaching all-time records. 2020 was the best year for newly listed companies. Share prices of lossmaking companies like Airbnb more than doubled on the day they started trading. Tesla shares are zooming as if Tesla was a rocket.

How can this be explained?

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USA has published its “National Income and Product Accounts data” until November 2020. It captures the aggregate earnings, expenditure and savings of Americans. For those who understand numbers, the table makes for fascinating reading. A New York Times article this month analyses the data well. The analysis compares the Covid time data (March-November 2020) to the previous year (March-November 2019) data.

US markets are a benchmark. World markets now move up and down in a choregraphed fashion. For example, India receives more than $50 billion annually from foreign investors, mostly in stock markets, rather than infrastructure. Withdrawal of foreign funds would cause Indian markets to collapse.

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The US national data table starts with personal income that includes wages and salaries. The total employee compensation in Covid times went down by 0.5%. (March-November 2020 compared to 2019). With severe lockdowns, millions unemployed, half a percent slide is surprisingly small. Number of jobs declined by 6.1%.

The reason is that lost jobs were relatively lowly paid. High paying executive jobs were hardly affected. Most high paid jobs continued online, while wage workers couldn’t work from home. If an executive got a bonus of $100,000 for leading the company successfully through the pandemic, and four restaurant workers earning $25,000 each lost their jobs, the net effect on total income was zero. True, you have one guy who has become wealthier and fatter, and four guys stressed, depressed and perhaps hungry. But the aggregate income is not affected.

Despite the mass unemployment, the total compensation was down only by $43 billion in the nine months.

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On the other hand, Americans’ income from unemployment insurance benefits was a staggering 25 times higher than previous year. The government pumped in $499 billion more into American pockets. The $1200 stimulus checks in the CARES act added another $276 billion to the personal income, though much of it went to families that had maintained their jobs and earnings. The Paycheck Protection Program to protect business and farm owners added another $29 billion. All other income went up by $265 billion, resulting into a total increase of the disposable personal income by an incredible $1.03 trillion.

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The other part of the story was the fall in expenditure. Spending on services fell by $575 billion (8%). This included savings on flights, hotels, restaurants, sports, concert tickets and all other services that were banned. On the other hand, Americans spent more on goods; $60 billion on durable goods (computer chairs, bicycles) and $39 billion on fast moving consumer goods (food at home). Thanks to reduction in spending on services, the interest payments dropped by $59 billion.  

The net expenditure went down by $535 billion (575+59- 60-39).

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In effect Americans’ savings, in aggregate, went up by $1.56 trillion ($1.03 trillion additional income+ $535 billion reduction in expenditure). This is a 173% increase compared to the equivalent period in 2019.

What to do with the $1.56 trillion extra money? Currency in circulation went up by $260 billion (14%). Deposits in banks by 19%. But holding cash and deposits don’t grow wealth, with central bank lowering interest rates to near zero.

Those willing to risk threw all that money into shares and assets. S&P 500 went up by 16%. Home sales in the USA surprisingly surged, with prices up 8.4% in October. Even a fictional asset like bitcoin skyrocketed. The Fed is still pumping $120 billion into markets every month. Joe Biden this month will give an additional stimulus of $1.9 trillion. So, the market euphoria may continue for some more time before crashing to the ground.

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Does that mean it is a mistake to offer stimulus? I don’t think so. Anyway, the rich will get richer and poor will get poorer. But a $2000 check may allow someone to survive who wouldn’t otherwise.

Ravi 

Corona Daily 210: World’s Biggest Pilgrimage Kicks Off: Part Final

UNESCO has recognized Kumbh Mela as intangible cultural heritage.

Last year, many religious gatherings were cancelled or dramatically curtailed. Hajj, the annual pilgrimage to Mecca, allowed a few thousand local visitors, compared to the two million every year. On Christmas eve, the pope celebrated midnight mass with a few dozen instead of the usual 10,000.  

Religious gatherings held last year have sometimes turned into super-spreader events. The earliest and best-known case was the Shincheonji religious group, which became the source of South Korea’s outbreak last February. By March, half of all the cases of that nation, numbering in thousands, were traced back to its members. US churches have contributed to the contagion. One Californian church caused seventy cases, one in Ohio ninety.

India faced its own crisis, when Tablighi Jamaat, a conservative Muslim missionary group led to a coronavirus cluster. The publicity for that event in social media was equally toxic and widespread.

Hinduism has 330 million gods. Mathematically, this pantheon offers a much better protection than a single Allah or Jesus. When questioned about a million people congregating in covid times, Kumbh mela’s chief organizer said, “I am sure mother Ganga will take care of their safety.”

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Indian newspapers are surprisingly silent about the Kumbh mela. No pictures, and no reports. Indian parliament is still shut because of covid-19. What about the courts? Why didn’t anyone go to the courts to point out the risks?

As a matter of fact, five different Public Interest Litigations (PIL) were filed in the State High Court last year. On 11 January, the bench met the relevant officials on Zoom and on 13 January issued an order.

At the beginning of the order, the court says the possibility of a congregation of millions emerging as a hot bed for the spread of coronavirus cannot be ruled out.

The learned chief secretary of the State informs the court that other states have been requested not to send too many pilgrims, but borders cannot be closed. To dissuade people, the state government has decided not to erect any tents for housing. Lack of tents would discourage the arrival of many pilgrims. (The pilgrims don’t know any of this.)

Court observes that Haridwar’s population is 2 million. On special days, 5 million visitors are expected, which takes the number to 7 million. What are the medical facilities available in case of a covid explosion?

The state government replied it has 5493 beds, and they should be sufficient. When the court expressed surprise, the learned chief secretary added that the Government Mela hospital in Haridwar has an ICU of 10 beds. Rishikesh, a nearby town has 165 beds with oxygen cylinders.

The court didn’t exactly agree with the learned state officials. In its order, it asked the state to write to the central government asking them to immediately issue SOP (standard operating procedures) for the Kumbh mela, 2021.

The state government should consider erecting sufficient number of tents to house the large number of devotees. It should also seriously consider increasing the medical equipment and health workers available. Other state governments across the country should be informed about the necessity of reducing the numbers at the mela.

It is noteworthy this order was issued one day before 700,000+ devotees arrived at Haridwar.

The Court has specified the next steps. After considering the court order, the State government should submit a report on or before 15 February. The learned secretaries of the state should appear on the video conference with the court on 22 February. Court has asked the registrar to give this case the top priority on that day.

As the judicial system normally works, the court will express unhappiness at the report and give a further date for hearing in March. This will continue until the Kumbh Mela is over. Unless there is a real outbreak, in which case the central government will issue an order closing the Kumbh Mela and banning entry in Haridwar. Something it could have done before the start of the mela.

Ravi