Corona Daily 364: Language costs Lives

Language can cost lives, as well as save lives.

Clarity is paramount in the message of the nation or its leaders. Look at the messages Denmark issued before Easter. “Cancel Easter Lunch”, “Postpone family visits”, “Don’t go sightseeing around the country.” There is little ambiguity, flexibility or discretion here. Now compare that with the instructions of Denmark’s neighbour – Sweden. “Ahead of the breaks and Easter, it is important to consider whether planned travel in Sweden is necessary.”

Denmark till date has lost 106 per million, Sweden 570 per million. At least part of this enormous difference is the vague set of instructions that shifted the government’s responsibility to the individual.

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In the USA and UK, confused language has claimed a few thousand lives. USA has the dubious honour of leading in most measures. However, in Covid-19 deaths per million, as critical a measure as any, UK (686 deaths per million) outpaces USA (499). UK’s language in March and April in particular was full of modifiers, like “if possible”, “ideally” or “if necessary”. On 16 March, Boris Johnson advised British people against non-essential travel and suggested people should avoid pubs, clubs and theatres. He said people should work from home if possible. He urged 70+ citizens to consider the advice particularly important. Johnson is a master of the language, but his communication is foggier than the London morning sky. To be fair, UK improved in later months.  Today, Preston – a city in Lancashire – has started a campaign called “don’t kill your granny”. It is difficult for the young not to understand that message.

In the USA, for 10 days from 7 August, 250000 people have gathered for the annual Sturgis motorcycle rally. Nobody is wearing a mask. Spectators crowd the rally first, and the cafes and restaurants next. One lady who was interviewed said: ‘We are allowed to make our own choices. If we get it (virus), we chose to be here’.

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That indicates a failure to understand words. For me, democracy and liberty mean freedom of mind, freedom to fearlessly express that mind. Democracy means a rule of law, and strong institutions that protect your freedoms if you follow the law.

Democratic freedom doesn’t include freedom to endanger others. Governments in free democracies have a right, even an obligation, to impose rules, and governments always do. Traffic rules dictate which side of the road we can drive on. In the name of human liberty, one is not free to drive on either side. There is not much difference between wearing seat belts and wearing masks. Both are inconveniences, but if the government believes they enhance safety, they must make them mandatory unequivocally. And impose fines for breaking those regulations. Taxation is another area that is particularly unpleasant. But we accept our government imposing taxes, deducting them at source, requiring us to file returns by particular dates. We can face fines as well as a jail sentence for not following the rules.

What makes the pandemic emergency and the necessary health precautions any different than road safety or tax collection? It is understandable if governments are compelled to open businesses to minimize the economic damage. That doesn’t explain why beaches should be full of un-distanced people sun-tanning in thousands. That doesn’t explain 250,000 people attending a motorbike rally in a small town.

If the USA has done badly in this pandemic, one key reason is that nation’s failure to understand the true meaning of democracy and human liberty.

Ravi

Corona Daily 365: Coronaspeak: part II

The Oxford English Dictionary has now started monthly updates of coronaspeak, online of course.

Linguistically, words can be formed in several ways. Acronyms make a pronounceable word from the first letters, such as JOMO, which is ‘Joy Of Missing Out’. Somebody playing videogames the whole day can describe his state of happiness as JOMO. WFH or PPE are well-known abbreviations.

Two words can be combined to form a new one, like zoomdressing or coronababies. We will hear more about coronababies in 2021. A Coronawaltz is moving zigzag in public to avoid physical contact. Coronacuts are hairstyles during the pandemic. I don’t know why, but the Canadian term covember is the practice of not shaving for the duration of self-isolation. Covid antibuddies (not to be confused with antibodies) are friends or families who have gotten on the nerves of one another.

Blursday indicates our weakening sense of time. I am restricting myself to the English language. German, notorious for compounding words, has corona words like offnungsdiskussionsorgien (orgies of discussion) that describes the endless policy debates over reopening.

New expressions can replace the known ones. Shake-hand was replaced by an Elbow bump. Quarantine and chill is a substitute for the slang Netflix and chill (a codeword for sexual activity).

Portmanteau words like Brexit or Brunch is the most delightful play practiced by those inventing new words. Coronasplaining is done by armchair virologists.

Covidiot, probably the most popular term, refers to someone ignoring public health advice. Covidiots may not wear masks, think handwashing a waste of time, arrange parties at home, suntan on crowded beaches. Flu bros, a subset of this group, downplays the seriousness by calling it flu. Smizing, smiling with your eyes because your mouth is covered by a mask, has not succeeded.

Other creative ways create new meanings for known words. In Ireland, self-isolation for the over 70s is called cocooning. In neighbouring England, shielding is the term used for those vulnerable with health conditions.

Tony Thorne, a linguist with King’s college, London has collected more than 1000 words for the pandemic lexicon. (That may be his JOMO). He has appealed to the public to send him what they coin.

Your corona word will not be judged by its beauty or wit. Its success is determined by how widely it is used. Oxford English Dictionary will include a new word based on the frequency of its use in print, visual and social media. There are a couple of coronavirus corpuses, Oxford has its own. Google trends show you what people are searching for. The corpus shows what people are actually saying in online newspapers and magazines. One coronavirus corpus currently has 508 million words, and grows by 3-4 million words every day. Not all words are corona neologisms, but many are related to the pandemic. For example, between January and March, words like Wuhan, toilet paper, hoard were used very frequently. In OED, “outbreak” and “novel” were the top words in the first quarter of this year. PPE, reopen and defund were the top words in April, May and June respectively. Even the Oxford dictionary is greatly influenced by the American media whose influence in a pandemic is more overwhelming than usual.

(Continued tomorrow).

Ravi 

Corona Daily 366: Coronaspeak: part I

In April, in the middle of a strict lockdown, my 16 year old announced she was going to have an eep-over.

‘What are you talking about, we are in a lockdown.’ I said as a concerned father of a teenager. ‘No question of your spending the night with your friends.’

‘Not sleepover, dad, eep-over. We are going to watch movies together, chat and eat, all in our respective homes. (Apparently Netflix now offers this option).

*****

The other day, at my local park, a friend asked me a fairly routine question: how are you?

‘I am negative, thank you.’ I smiled.

*****

The coronavirus pandemic is affecting language in several ways. New words are created, and old ones are acquiring new meanings. We effortlessly use words we had never used before 2020. Did you ever say ‘herd immunity’ before? Or comorbidities? Or express regret that the curve was not flattening?

We are social animals, but now socially distanced. That may not stop us from going into quarantine or self-isolation. We are living in uncertain times, as well as unprecedented times. That’s the new normal, if you like. Contact tracing is actually a profession. Hospital staff has become frontline workers. Even those without any medical education are using terms like PPE, R-0, ventilation, intubation, antigen and pathogen. Americans shelter in place, because the rest of the world stays at home. When criticizing China, people talk about zoonotic diseases, a word even spell-check doesn’t know.

Those who WFH have new routine lines: ‘you’re on mute’, ‘I’m just going to dial back’, ‘I’m having issues with my wifi’. Many have developed zoom fatigue.

*****

Coronaverse is the world that we now live in, and quarantimes the period. Some people recommend B.C. to be deciphered as ‘Before Corona’ - the hugging, kissing, drinking, pubbing, travelling era. Time is now split as pre-rona and post-rona. Post-rona is that glorious dream, in the undetermined future, where our life goes back to the old normal. The virus has been personified by some as Miss Rona to make it a playful character.

Coronapocalypse is the endgame of the pessimists, who suffer from very high viral anxiety. Infodemic is made of dodgy news, doomscrollers are the consumers. Covid-19 has another meaning. It is the 19 extra pounds you have gained during lockdown.

*****

Zumping is ending a relationship in a Zoom call. This is far more convenient than dumping face-to-face. If the emotions of the Zumped person become intolerable, one can simply switch off.

‘Elephant in the Zoom’ is a nice British expression. It is the person in the Zoom meeting everyone tries to avoid.

Time difference or lock down fatigue may make some participants Zoombies.

***** 

Australians are the masters of diminutives. They have invented pando (pandemic), iso (isolation) and sanny (hand sanitiser). Sanny sounds fresh and clean. Iso gives other words like isobar, which is a fridge well stocked with booze to get you through the pandemic. Isodesk is that workplace where you wear a nice shirt and tie in the upper half, pyjama and slippers in the bottom half. The dress code is called basement casual or zoomdressing.

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A book can be written on the way coronavirus is bringing new words and expressions in our languages. I will, however, restrict myself to a couple of articles to offer a flavor and also give important links if you wish to contribute to coronaspeak.  More tomorrow.

Ravi  

Corona Daily 367: Paycheck Protection Program (PPP)

CARES (Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security) Act is a fantastically generous act passed by the USA on 29 March. It is designed to provide relief to individuals and businesses economically affected by the pandemic. PPP (Paycheck protection program) is one key measure that has set aside $349 billion in forgivable loans to small businesses so they can retain their employees and keep the business running. In April, another $300 billion was added to PPP. Though the loan is given at 1% per annum, both the loan and the interest will be waived if the small business spends the money within the agreed time, mainly towards payroll expenses.

*****

In April, David Hines, 29, had minus $30,000 in his account thanks to an overdraft facility. The energetic young man submitted applications for seven businesses, requesting PPP loans worth $14 million. The money would be spent on 70 employees, with a monthly payroll of $4 million. The bank approved three applications with incredible speed sanctioning $3.99 million, and began sending the money on 11 May.

As efficient as the bank, a week later David Hines was seen driving around Miami Beach in a new blue Lamborghini Huracan Evo. For the lovely car registered in his own name, he had paid $318,497. This was merely the beginning. As the investigator’s affidavit later revealed, he spent $8530 on Graff diamonds, $4700 on Saks Fifth avenue, $7300 at a luxury Miami Beach hotel, $30,000 to Mom, and $40,000 to three people whose names are not disclosed. Thousands were spent on dating websites, delivery services, and other luxury places. In an understatement, the investigator adds “there does not appear to be any business purpose for these expenses”.

*****

In reality, Hines’s Miami companies had an average monthly expense of $200,000. Most of the 70 employees didn’t exist, and those who did had salaries a fraction of what was written in the application.

It would have taken less than two minutes to check the monthly payroll tax Hines’ companies paid. That would have disqualified his application immediately. But the federal agency didn’t bother to check any claims in the applications.

Hines was charged last week, his Lamborghini confiscated. Until the court hearing in October, he is allowed to live with his mother (to whom he presumably paid $30,000) with a GPS monitor. It is possible he misunderstood the term ‘forgivable’ loan. If the charges are proven, he faces up to 70 years in jail.

*****

At least 30 such cases have come to light. A Detroit resident received $600,000 for a defunct business. Reality TV star Maurice Fayne (Mo) spent $1.5 million in a buying spree comprising of Rolex watches, a diamond bracelet, a 5.73 carat diamond ring for himself, and $40,000 for child support. Among other things, agents seized $80,000 in cash, including $9,400 from his pockets.

Lee Price III, was arrested this week. His PPP funds were spent at liquor stores, a strip club, two Houston nightclubs, and the leasing of a luxury apartment in midtown Houston. More importantly, he had bought a $14,000 Rolex watch and a $240,000 Lamborghini Urus.

***** 

Whether the Paycheck Protection Program succeeded in helping small businesses will be known in the future. It has certainly helped the business of Lamborghini.

Ravi

Corona Daily 368: The Case of the Anthropology Professor

In the twitter world, she was known as @Sciencing_Bi. Using a simple name ‘Alepo’, and a flower as her avatar image, she had some 6000 followers. @Sciencing_Bi was a geologist/paleontologist, a professor at the Arizona State University, bisexual, from a Hopi Native American background. An outspoken activist, her tweets about racism, sexism, and other discrimination in academia attracted followers. On twitter, one professor described her as a prominent Native American anthropologist. Her activism became strident when she became sick with Covid-19, and began tweeting about her battle with the disease.

Blaming Arizona State University for her condition, she said the university forced her to give lectures to 200 students instead of closing the school in April. As if this was not enough, the university had cut 15% of her salary when she was in hospital. In late June, @Sciencing_Bi asked her supporters to donate to her through Professor McLaughlin’s Venmo account. She said the dean had asked her to take a DNA ancestry test to prove her status as BIPOC (Black, Indigenous, people of color).

In early June, @Sciencing_Bi also claimed to have been sexually assaulted by Theodor Bestor, a Harvard professor. Her tweet mentioned this event took place during a scientific meeting.

On 31 July, her friend Dr BethAnn McLaughlin, a neuroscientist, announced that @Sciencing_Bi had died from complications of the virus. In a long twitter thread, she paid testament to her humanity and strength. Gary Wright II, an LGBQT Alabama activist said the news was painful. She meant so much to diverse communities. Professors and scientists tweeted messages of sympathy, grief and general Covid-19 awareness. A Zoom memorial service was arranged by Dr McLaughlin.

*****

Melissa Bates, a professor at the University of Iowa attended the Zoom memorial meeting. Ms Bates tweeted that it was attended only by four people- herself, Dr McLaughlin, Mr Eisen and one more man. Though they spoke warmly of the departed soul, Dr McLaughlin was the only one who had ever met @Sciencing_Bi. It was understood that in life, @Sciencing_Bi was reluctant to reveal her true name. But even after death, nobody had learnt of her identity.

*****

A spokesman from the Arizona State University clarified they were not aware of any such person ever working for them. The university had closed classes in March; there was no question of a lecturer contracting the virus in April. No salary was cut, nor was anybody asked to prove any Native American Status.

Twitter followers and mourners began raising their suspicions. Except Dr BethAnn McLaughlin, nobody had ever met @Sciencing_Bi.

*****

Dr BethAnn McLaughlin campaigned against sexual assault and harassment of women in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM). Assistant professor of neurology at Vanderbilt University, she launched the #MeTooSTEM website in 2018 for women to tell their stories. She turned out to be a racist, bully and harasser herself, to an extent where everyone left her organization. She was removed from the university.

In 2016, she created the identity of @Sciencing_Bi presumably to refute she was racist or homophobic. With people getting suspicious, she decided to kill her. On Monday, twitter removed both accounts. Yesterday, through her lawyer, she gave a statement to NYT acknowledging her cat-fishing act. As much as is known, there is no punishment for such a hoax.

Social media identity frauds are now easier. In Covid times, a person can easily say he/she can’t meet. The lesson is to make sure you know the person exists before getting involved, or posting a mourning message.

Ravi

Corona Daily 369: Thank You Covid-19

Bev Boro, 53, was always curious about her disjointed, broken, and dispersed family. While her father was alive, she had managed to extract as much information from him as possible. He had married thrice and fathered ten children. In 1967, his irresponsible behavior had led to the breakup of the family. Her father and mother had left six children without any care for a week. Neighbours had complained to the police. The Social Service had taken all the children away.

The eldest child, Dorris, was 20 years old. According to the father, she was greatly fond of Bev, and had taken care of her in her first year more than her mother. Dorris was sent to live with her biological mother. Bev was put up for adoption. The father had said Bev had to be pulled back, Dorris was not willing to let her go. The men from the agency had forcibly separated them.

Over the next fifty three years, Bev had tried to find her eldest sister. She knew her name: Dorris Crippen. But she did not show up in Facebook, Google, Instagram or any other virtual location. Which was not particularly surprising, since Dorris would be 73 now.

*****

Dorris Crippen, a widow, lived on her own in an Omaha apartment. In May, she felt feverish and weak. An attempt to pick up a water bottle resulted in a fall. She was taken to the hospital with a broken arm, and diagnosed with Covid-19. She was in that hospital for more than a month.

The doctors sent her to Dunklau Gardens, a rehab center and nursing home. Covid-19 had weakened her. Moreover, Dorris was hard of hearing. It would do her well to spend some time at a rehab center.

*****

Dorris Crippen. Bev Boro, the medication aide at Dunklau Gardens saw the name in the patient list and couldn’t believe it. Could this be a coincidence? But the age mentioned was right.

Bev Boro had been working at Dunklau Gardens for the past 22 years. She read the patient card. It mentioned Dorris Crippen was deaf. Bev took a small whiteboard with her and stood in front of the white-haired lady. She wrote two words in big bold letters on the slate.

“Wendall Hoffman.”

“That’s my daddy”, the old lady said.

“That’s my dad, too”, said Bev. She mimicked rocking a baby to make Doris understand. Bev Boro, she showed her name on the badge. Dorris, despite her weakness, jumped from her chair and burst into tears. She had last held her little sister 53 years ago.

“You have got our daddy’s eyes”, she told Bev.

They both could not sleep that night.

*****

Since their meeting on 27 June, Bev has told Dorris about four more siblings she had found through Facebook. Bev already has three children and five grandchildren. Dorris has three children and 16 grandchildren. The sisters are planning a grand family reunion, once it is safe to do so.

“I have to thank Covid-19”, said Dorris repeatedly. “It sounds crazy, but without Covid-19, we would have never met.”

Ravi

Corona Daily 370: Segovia Brothers Circus, Part Final

The chance spectators on the streets sometimes donated rice, beans, flour, oil and soap. A local church gave them masks and sanitisers. The people of Honduras didn’t let them starve to death. Every day, the street performances added $50 to $75 to the escape fund, not enough to go back to Guatemala.

Now Alejandro had to make the choice of saving the physical circus or the people working for it. He began selling the circus assets for survival. After selling a truck, he sold the generator his father had bought.

In one of the letters Alejandro said, “If the virus kills the circus, humanity would lose one of the oldest spectacles in our history. Circus is storytelling.”

If and when they raised enough money, they wanted to go back. But they didn’t know how the situation was at the border. Rumours talked about fines, bribes, mandatory health checks, and queues waiting for days.

*****

Meanwhile, in June, the president of his home country, Guatemala, was driving near a boulevard in Guatemala City. The president, Alejandro Giammattei, saw clowns in costumes and circus acrobats begging for money. It was a strange sight. Giammattei invited a group of circus owners to find out the impact of the lockdown on their industry. Among the invitees was Alejandro Segovia’s father-in-law, Francisco Lopez, known as clown Cepillin, head of another circus family. Lopez delivered to the president a letter from his son-in-law trapped with his troupe in Honduras.

*****

In the middle of July, Alejandro’s phone rang. On a Facetime video call, he was stunned to see President Giammattei’s face on his phone. The president offered the troupe fuel vouchers for their trip from Tegucigalpa to the Guatemala border. He confirmed each troupe member will receive a monthly stipend of $130 until the circus starts functioning again, whenever that is. A low-interest loan would be provided to help Alejandro rebuild the circus. 

Alejandro crossed the border with his family first. They couldn’t believe they were back in Guatemala finally. He had a meeting with the minister of sports and culture who would facilitate the return of his troupe back home. The minister also gave him the funding promised by the president.

On 23 July, Alejandro dropped his wife to the maternity hospital in Guatemala City. He then drove to the border to welcome his circus. The bright red Segovia trucks drove through the border gates. Alejandro made it just a week before his license to bring them in was due to expire.

***** 

The circus has now based camp in containers in a field in Guatemala City where the performers are allowed to live. Until the pandemic is over, they have decided to showcase their talent on the streets. Alejandro will juggle; clown and his colleagues will ride the globe of death at breakneck speed.

Vany, Alejandro’s wife, gave birth to a daughter at the end of July. They named her Aleangela. “She will be” Alejandro announced, “the newest star of the Segovia Brothers Circus.”

*****

(P.S. NatGeo deserves thanks for bringing to light this heartwarming story. In a world where it is becoming increasingly difficult to find stories with a happy ending.)

Ravi   

Corona Daily 371: Segovia Brothers Circus, Part I

Alejandro Segovia from Guatemala is the top man of the Segovia Brothers circus. His father started it in 1987, but generations before him had worked in the circus business since 1884, when Guatemala’s first modern circus was founded. Alejandro feels there is such a thing as circus blood, and equates the circus with liberty. His circus moves to a different city every week, and a different country every month. They call the non-circus population “stay-at-home” people. The crew lives in small cabins in circus trailers.

In September 2019, the troupe started their much anticipated year-long tour of five Central American countries. The show was named “Circus Extreme”. Travelling circuses are extremely popular in Central America. Great family enjoyment and a way for people to de-stress from daily worries. A convoy of Segovia-branded trucks and trailers landed in Nicaragua, where the troupe performed for two months. In Costa Rica, a circus truck and Alejandro’s mobile home were confiscated by the unfriendly authorities for want of a permit. There was no time to go to the courts, so Alejandro took the pragmatic decision of moving to Honduras and returning later to Costa Rica once its bureaucrats were satisfied.  

On 6 March, they arrived in Tegucigalpa, Honduras’s capital, set up the giant red-and-yellow tent in a field, with its brightly lit “Segovia” on top, surrounded by glimmering red trucks and trailers. Only 25% seats were sold for the first show. The third show was empty. On 15 March, Honduras went into a lockdown. Weeks later, its president would be hospitalized with the infection.

Alejandro was trained as an acrobat, a stunt motorcycle rider in the globe of death, a magician, a juggler, but he had no idea how to face a pandemic. For the first time in its history, the circus people became “stay-at-home” people.

The circus investors, who normally pay running expenses in advance and recover from ticket sales, suddenly disappeared. Their phones no longer answered. In three days, the troupe of 35 people ran out of food, supplies and money. They had no money to go home. By the first week of April, circus kids began complaining of hunger. Drinking water ran out, they began washing dishes in puddles. Alejandro’s mother first sold her cell phone, pans and fridge. Others followed. They used that money to buy food and water.

Guatemala’s border was more than 600 km away through a mountainous region. In a lockdown, without money, it was impossible to take the circus back home. Alejandro had two deadlines. His license to operate overseas would expire in July. After that, he was supposed to pay import duties on everything he brought into the country. That would kill him. His wife, Vany Lopez, was due to give birth at the end of July. As per the laws, if the baby was born outside Guatemala, it wouldn’t have citizenship and might not be allowed to enter Guatemala.

*****

In a frenzied state, he wrote pleading letters to the Guatemalan embassy, and the Honduras chamber of commerce. He sought help from local circuses. He cried when alone, and managed to sleep only three or four hours a night.

None of that helped. Then his troupe began performing on the streets. In 40 C temperatures, women dancers performed on the road. They set up the “globe of death”, in which motorcyclists rode in 360-degree loops. After that they held up signs and jars to seek donations.

(To be continued)

Ravi

Corona Daily 372: No Final Goodbye

Yesterday, Shrirang Bhagwat, 60, my mother’s first cousin, died of covid-19. Only two years my senior, we grew up in the same school. Our relations over the years have been closer than the mere DNA connection.

Shrirang was a Chef de Cuisine, a master chef. Besides India, he had extensively worked in places like Kenya, Tanzania and Iraq.  As an adventurous young man, he had won the contract to make a seven-story, three meter high wedding cake for Saddam Hussein’s daughter. Saddam’s military men had surrounded Shrirang’s team while the cake was being made. Saddam had made his ministers taste it before sharing with his own family. Shrirang’s photo with a smiling Saddam was hanging in his living room for many years, until its display became an embarrassment.

He was a regular contributor to Diwali magazine articles, about his incredible experiences abroad. One of his research projects was about coffee from around the world. His dream of writing a book about chhaas (whey) remains unfulfilled.

*****

One pair of Shrirang’s grandparents, my great-grandparents, managed to raise a large family. Split between Mumbai and California, there are currently 94 descendents (now 93), and their 46 spouses that form a surprisingly close, warm and loving group. We look forward to meeting in person at weddings, anniversaries, family ceremonies, and other specially conceived gatherings. Such large families are India’s social security.

Shrirang was fine at the beginning of this week. Then he had a three day stomach infection, followed by a sudden cardiac arrest yesterday. Stomach infection/diarrhea is one of the coronavirus symptoms, so he had done a test.  

Yesterday, we were all trapped in our respective homes. On hearing about the loss, we would have dropped everything and rushed to south Bombay. Not this time. Instead, we were wondering how to break this news to our older or more vulnerable family members.  Our What’sApp group was silent, not knowing how to grieve or mourn virtually.

Shrirang’s wife Padma is a professional editor. She and I had spent a year going over syntax, punctuation marks and other refinements for my book published in Marathi. In normal course, all hundred of us would have landed at their house. Padma could have rested her head on several supporting shoulders. We would have ceremoniously said goodbye to Shrirang. Some family members would have stayed overnight. Over the next few days, several people would have visited the house to offer condolences. Memories would have been shared, memories that can produce a rare smile on the face of the mourners. Hugging, physical contact, even a simple hand shake are such an essential part of the healing process. Healthy grief needs a community.

Instead, Shrirang’s son Abhishek and three others had to hurriedly take him to be cremated. (In Bombay, four people are allowed). Shrirang’s positive test results came after his cremation. In the evening, Padma and Abhishek had to give swab tests. Now they may be required to quarantine themselves for the next two weeks.

All of a sudden you lose your husband or your father, and have to immediately lock yourself up for two weeks. Your relatives can’t visit you even in masks and gloves to offer condolences.

This unresolved, isolating grief is as terrifying an aspect of the pandemic as the deaths themselves.

Ravi

Corona Daily 373: Operation Warp Speed

In April 2020, the Trump administration announced project “Operation Warp Speed” that aims to deliver 300 million doses of an FDA-approved Covid-19 vaccine by January 2021. The administration, perhaps a little prematurely, described OWS as one of the greatest scientific and humanitarian accomplishments in history. Trump compared it to the Manhattan project (developing the A-bomb).

The project pours enormous money into select pharma companies for the development, manufacturing and distribution of vaccines. Normally, these are sequential processes, meaning production capacities are built only after a reliable proven or approved product is at hand. Considering the emergency, OWS tries to make these processes parallel. It is accepted that just one or two vaccine candidates will succeed, and a large portion of money invested in development may go waste.

Till today, some $13 billion has been committed. Out of the long list, five companies are the finalists: Moderna, Oxford/AZ, Johnson and Johnson, Merck and Pfizer. Moderna and Oxford have started large-scale trials.

***** 

How excited should we be? If you are an American, you should be more excited. End of June, the USA bought all stocks of Remdesivir (Gilead) until end of September. This drug has shown some positive results. On 7 July, OWS signed a half billion dollar deal with Regeneron, locking its potential reg-cov2 therapy for three months. No other country will be allowed to buy it during that period. The OWS mission of producing 300 million vaccine doses obviously matches with the USA population. Simultaneously, USA is taking steps to withdraw from WHO, an organization that plays a key role in the fair global distribution of vaccines. With the “America first” approach, universal vaccination in rich countries may take priority over high risk populations in poor countries.

*****

Is OWS political? Of course, it is. Because at the outset, it has refused to consider any candidates from China. Moncef Slaoui, the head of OWS, has been accused of conflict of interest. He was on the Board of Directors of Moderna just before joining OWS. A positive announcement by Moderna, with a dramatic rise in its share price gave him $3 million in one day. He sold his Moderna stock for $12 million. Most OWS candidates had their share prices going through the roof. Stock options of the Vaxart CEO were $4.3 million. A month later, they were worth more than $28 million. Novavax is another company that has not delivered a single vaccine to the market. A New York Times study showed that the executives of these companies sold shares worth $1 billion at super-inflated prices.

The next time you read exciting news about a vaccine progress, please bear in mind a possibility that the news may just be a get-richer-quick scheme of some executives.

*****

The fastest developed vaccine in medical history, for mumps, took four years. Trump has only 100 days. He has a weapon called the ‘Emergency Use Authorization’ at his disposal. Pressured by him, FDA gave EUA to Hydroxychloroquine on 28 March. After serious cardiac events, and serious side effects, EUA was revoked on 15 June. EUA simply requires it is “reasonable to believe” that the “vaccine may be effective”. Bill Gates has also started several vaccine projects. But Trump can give an EUA, Bill Gates can’t.

My prediction is that some vaccine will get an Emergency use authorization in October. The world, not knowing the difference between an approval and EUA will be overjoyed, markets will go up. Trump may get reelected. Once the election results are out, the authorization can be revoked. After the elections, it doesn’t matter whether the vaccine works or not.

Ravi