Corona Daily 393: You Can’t Stay at Home

Yesterday, I talked about employees fortunate enough to retain their jobs by working from home. At the other end of the spectrum are those living in rented houses, who have lost their jobs. Low-income, daily wage workers are the worst affected. They risk being kicked out of their homes.

USA, England and Wales (not UK), were quick to announce a ban on evictions (landlords removing tenants) and foreclosures (banks confiscating the house for non-payment of a mortgage). In August, the moratoriums will come to an end.

In India, informal requests were made to landlords to be compassionate and delay or waive rent. No ordinance has been passed. This was one reason why daily-wage migrants desperately tried to return to their villages. Reserve Bank of India allowed delay of mortgage payment, though warning that interest for delayed payment will be charged.

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Evictions have now started in the USA. In the middle of May, the Texas Supreme Court ordered resumption of evictions and debt collection. The Sheriff of Oklahoma County tweeted: “This is difficult… Deputies will start serving judicial eviction notices this week and enforcing evictions on May 26. Once the order is served, tenants have 48 hours to leave. We will be compassionate & respectful during evictions.”

One institute estimates 28 million renters risk evictions (22.5% of American households). Undocumented and illegal migrants prefer to be evicted, rather than deported, by letting the authorities know about them. The dreaded scenario of an eviction notice on the door, a knock from the sheriff’s deputies, and family possessions landing on the street is already happening. Evicted people are worried about being taken to homeless shelters. These crowded shelters are infamous for being Covid-19 hotspots.

UK has 8 million tenants, of whom 4.5 million have private landlords. Others rent from councils and housing associations. England moved the moratorium from 25 June to 31 August. (The expression kicking the can down the road was made famous by Brexit).

Rent is not waived in any country, only eviction delayed.

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It is generally assumed that the landlord is wealthier than the renter. That is not always the case. For some widows, property rent is their only income for survival. Many house owners have hefty mortgages to pay. In England buy-to-let is quite common. Reportedly, these mortgages are not covered under the moratorium.

This is one of the pandemic’s irresolvable issues. To be fair to renters is to be unfair to landlords. And those two have a contractual relationship. In a domino chain, the tenant pays rent to the house owner, who may be paying mortgage to the bank. The bank has lent that money from the depositors’ savings. In similar crises, banks may end up with lots of foreclosed (confiscated) properties which are not sellable. Liquidity is affected, and depositors may not be able to withdraw their own money.

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With campuses and hostels shut, students have moved back to their parents’ houses where possible. With no government support, evicted Indians will need to move to the houses of their relatives/friends or be homeless.

For renters without jobs and savings, eviction is only a matter of time. USA and UK will have to stop issuing stimulus checks at some point. The moratorium on evictions and foreclosures ends in August.

From September, we may see a flood of evictions and an epidemic of homelessness.

Ravi

Corona Daily 394: Compensating Workers From Home

In recent weeks, a Switzerland Supreme Court decision has been hotly debated, not only in Switzerland. The court had ruled that if an employee was required to work from home, his company must pay a share of his rent. In that particular case, it was determined as $150 per month. The verdict was given on 23 April 2019. But the judgment has become very relevant now.

This compensation is comparable to an employer reimbursing business-related expenses incurred on an employee’s personal car or phone. Currently, many employees are happy saving on the commute, in some jobs productivity has gone up; introvert workers are enjoying working solo. This is the first major pandemic where working without leaving the house is possible. Are the employers taking over the workers’ living spaces without compensating them? Andy Merrifield calls this parasitic capitalism, where companies are trying to increase corporate profits by squeezing the public and employees, rather than generating new value.

Companies like Shopify have announced their workforce will work from home even after the pandemic. It is estimated the company will save $10,000 per employee per annum by converting his bedroom/kitchen into office space.

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If it’s remote work anyway, why should the worker live in an expensive town? He can move to a cheap city, or rent a shack on the beach.

Mark Zuckerburg, being Mark Zuckerburg, has warned that if a Facebook employee moves to a cheaper location, his salary will be proportionately reduced. Salaries have a relationship with the cost of living. Employees are asked to notify FB by 1 Jan. 2021 about any change of residence. Zuckerberg has asked them to be honest about it. (Even if they are not, surely he can easily trace their location.)

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Work from home was thrust unexpectedly this time. Many unprepared employees are working at their kitchen table, or in bed. In future, if it becomes the norm, an employee may need to rent or buy a house with an extra bedroom. The office space at home needs to be maintained, heated or air-conditioned, made soundproof. In a survey, employees mentioned their top three requirements: ergonomic chair, dual monitor and faster wifi. This is followed by a long list: Standing desk, office equipment, food allowance, garden office, childcare and noise-cancelling headphones.

Australian tax authorities have come up with a short-cut calculation. Australian employees are allowed to claim 80 cents for each hour they work from home between March and July 2020.

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Co-working space near the employee’s house is an interesting compromise. A residential building can have office space in the lobby or a particular floor. Residents can rent a desk for their remote work. That way they avoid home distractions, save on the commute, and still be among people who work for their respective companies. Such co-working happens quietly in a Starbucks or McDonalds, where buying a cup of coffee or a hamburger gets you a working space, wifi and air-conditioning. On their laptops the salesmen sell, the traders operate the stock market; analysts prepare and dispatch their reports.

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Rents in San Francisco have started falling. What happens if companies move a large chunk of work to their employees’ homes? The commercial real estate will crash. Buying a house in California requires a good ten years’ salary for a well paid executive. Why live in California if you are working from home?

The pandemic promises a real upheaval in the real estate market over the next ten years.

Ravi

Corona Daily 395: Pandemic Beards and Bras

The April-June wardrobe for the world was joggers, pyjamas, t-shirts, shorts, sweatpants and gowns. A few sets of wash and wear, comfy clothes worn repeatedly. People working online focused more on tops; the same dark pair of trousers could be worn even when it mismatched with the shirt. With no weddings and no evening parties, why would anyone buy elegant clothes?

The lockdown lifestyle of less exercise and more food makes wearing skintight clothes difficult anyway. When belts are no longer needed to hold up trousers, it can be depressing. Loose clothes offer comfort, both physical and psychological.

The clothes customers order from home during this lockdown are usually for home use. Tapestry’s stores cancelled 500 million dollars worth of orders for handbags, jackets and dresses. Chanel, of the famous no. 5 perfume, announced the next two years will be tough for its top luxury brands. Before international travel’s downturn, duty-free shops were the main sales avenues for luxury brands.

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Many women, including models and actresses, have reported not wearing bras for three months. Liberation from tyranny, they call it.  Despite a legitimate bra need for health reasons or sports activities, the lockdown has provoked a bra-less movement. Articles titled ‘death of the bra’ are probably an exaggeration. But where sales have re-started, non-wired bras are replacing push-ups, balconettes and slinky lacy varieties.

A byproduct of this liberation is women making face masks out of their bras. Japanese model Yumeno Asahina gave tutorials on how to convert bras into masks. Although not as protective as the N95 masks, they are colourful and aesthetically more pleasing.

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Lipstick is another casualty. Why apply lipstick, if you have to wear a mask on top? Women who tried it complain of the mask smudging the lipstick. Unless a girl is Zoom dating, lipstick has lost its purpose. Beauty advisors now advise women to focus on the eyes. Use mascaras, false eyelashes, eye liners, bold and glamorous brows.

Women in Saudi Arabia invest much time on makeup and perfumes. Wearing an expensive burqa and a heady perfume is a fashion statement for an invisible Saudi woman. Women will be women; they will find ways through masks and lockdowns.

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Lockdowns have also affected the shaving patterns of men. (I can talk with greater authority about beards than bras). With no hairdresser around for months, grooming was abandoned by many.  And if after a clean shave and a Gillette-smooth chin, one has to wear a mask to cover it, why shave regularly? Why apply an aftershave if nobody except your house inmates can smell it?

In the absence of dyeing, many heads and beards are showing their true colour. Some men have opted to sport ugly-looking, untrimmed beards. Shabby clothes, an uncombed hairdo, and graying wayward beards tell us how men take their families for granted.  

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Will some of these habits continue post-pandemic? I don’t think so. The world is a theatre, and currently most theatres are shut. Offices, discos, weddings, parties, award ceremonies are different stages where we play roles. Theatre is more effective when actors perform in the right costumes. Post-pandemic; elegant bras, clean-shaven faces, custom-made suits, glowing lipstick will all return.

The theatre of life has never stopped because of a mere pandemic.

Ravi

Corona Daily 396: Will Live Classical Music Die?

Worldwide, concert halls, ballet and opera theatres are silent. In the UK, the National theatre has made 30% staff redundant. 
Unless the government can come up with an urgent rescue package, 70% of the British performing arts are expected to go out of business by the end of 2020. Royal Albert Hall and South Bank are in a catastrophic situation.

Recently, Beethoven’s symphony no.7 was performed as a quarantine clip by orchestra musicians performing at their homes, wearing everyday attire. Such gimmicks don’t pay the bills. On YouTube, the London Philharmonic orchestra gets around 200,000 views a day. Its annual income from online streaming is 30,000 pounds, enough to cover the cost of a single rehearsal. Streaming services pay per clip, not duration; the same for a 2-minute song, and a 2-hour orchestra.

Classical music differs from sport. Football and cricket can be played in empty stadiums. People are accustomed to watch the game on TV. Live concerts and operas are a grand experience to be shared by the performers and audience sitting in the same room.

London’s Royal Opera House, whose survival Prince Charles is now worried about, has 100 people on stage, another 100 in the pit, and 2700 in the audience. It breaks even when 95% of the tickets are sold. Ticket sales are that important. UK government gives it a 20% subsidy, much less than the 80% in Germany.

The Berliner ensemble has removed 70% seats for social distancing. It plans to reopen in September. Opera Australia plans temperature checks. The Melbourne theatre company promises to share seating and contact details of every audience member with the government. Edinburg’s Royal Lyceum has announced going into hibernation.

Production club, a design studio in Los Angeles, has been more creative. It has developed a personal protective suit especially for concert-goers. Ventilation is inbuilt, also a facility to allow drinking. The suit gives the wearer an option to mute people in real life. It covers only the top half of the body, so visiting the loo is not a problem. Called Micrashell, it looks like a spacesuit.

Audience is not the only issue. Orchestra members sit very close to each other. Violin and cello players can wear masks, but not woodwinds or the singers. Brass musicians and singers continuously generate large clouds of aerosols.

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Indian classical music is more of a solo affair than a group performance. For survival, Indian performers are re-focusing on teaching online. In India, the lockdown seems to have renewed interest in learning classical singing.

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In many aspects of life, coronavirus highlights the defects of the existing business models. Classical music in places like London and New York are so expensive that it attracts a particular section of the society – older, rich, corporate, and showy.  Where subscription seasons are run, only those who can afford to pay for a year’s tickets in advance can attend.

Something good may come out of the current crisis. Classical music will be forced to perform online, or sell last minute tickets, or perform outdoors. For classical music to survive in the long term, younger audiences must develop a taste for it. The pandemic may compel orchestras and operas to pay more attention to the young.  

Ravi

Corona Daily 397: En Primeur or Wine Futures

Every spring, around 5000 journalists travel to Bordeaux in France, visit wineries, interview vintners and taste hundreds of barrel samples, a sweet perquisite of the writing profession. Negociants (wine merchants) gather, taste, and reach a consensus on the quality of the new vintage. Winemakers throw lavish parties and dinners for the guests.

En Primeur, essentially a Bordeaux term, is the concept of buying future wine today. (Like finding a young gymnast who can bring an Olympic gold, and investing in her years in advance). Wine reporters and traders taste fresh wine from barrels. They need to speculate on its taste two years later, after it has matured in the barrels. During the ageing time, flavours in the newly blended wines knit and settle together, tannins in red wines soften and white wines become richer and more full-bodied. Ageing in new oak barrels can add aromas and flavours of vanilla, spice and smoke. The winemakers sell at a lower price today than two years later, because it helps their cash flow and secures sales.

If you are lucky, wine can be as worthy an investment as stocks, houses or gold. The 1982 Chateau Latour was presold at $40 a bottle in the 1983 futures. Today the same bottle is priced at $1500. Between 2003 and 2018, red Burgundy gave returns of 497% vs 279 % for S&P 500 (US stock market).

Normally the En Primeur campaigns begin in May and continue through June. Bordelais assess the mood and issue the price lists. Having done the job for the future, they head for their summer vacation.

None of that happened this year. Autumn 2019 autumn was harvest time, when wine was made. But before a single guest could arrive for wine futures, France went into lockdown. Meetings were arranged on Zoom, but wine cannot be tasted online. Wine-makers couriered samples around the world, but after travelling a few thousand miles at 40,000 feet, wine may not taste like it tastes from a fresh barrel. At least one prominent wine author refused the samples, citing peril for the health of the wine and health of the recipients.

Based on the journalists’ who tasted the couriered samples, the 2019 vintage has been described as elegant, delicate, charming, precise, pure, rich with fine ageing.

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Based on the virtual campaign, Bordeaux winemakers have gone ahead and declared the futures price list for the 2019 vintage. They have offered on average an attractive 30% discount.

Even before Covid-19 uncertainty, the European wine industry was facing a variety of issues. USA, China and UK are its main markets. US has imposed 25% tariffs since October 2019, and threatens to raise it to 100%. (Believe it or not, this is in retaliation to Europe offering subsidies to Airbus, Boeing’s competitor). China has its own problems. And UK will be out of the EU by the time the wine matures. In normal times, 30% discount in wine futures is unheard of. It upsets those who bought expensive stocks last year. The pandemic is a legitimate excuse for such a gesture.

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Rich people have their own problems in the pandemic. How to preserve and grow their wealth if the equity or real estate bubbles burst? Other than gold, wine may be an option for them. Wine has an added advantage. If your bet doesn’t work, and the prices actually fall in 2022, you can always drown your disappointment by drinking your purchase.

Ravi

Corona Daily 398: A Lot of People Are Saying

A friend of mine believes wholeheartedly that 9/11 was an American plot to attack Muslim lands. CIA managed the operations, and the story of the 19 hijackers is a concocted one. Another friend believes coronavirus was made in a Wuhan lab. As irrefutable evidence, he sends to everyone a long WhatsApp essay by a Chinese scientist who allegedly worked in that lab. The essay by the Chinese is not a translation. It is written in English so beautiful that many native English speakers would be unable to match the articulation of the Chinese man. Both these friends are intelligent, the second one is a double degree holder in engineering. It is futile to argue with them. Their conviction in theories is stronger than my conviction in the scientific method.  

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If any profession has prospered as a result of the coronavirus, it is that of the conspiracy theorists. The Chinese think Americans have created this as a bioweapon. Americans accuse the Chinese of the same. In Iran they predictably talk about Zionist elements developing it against Iran. Jews created it to cause the stock market collapse. In the pandemic, the more alcohol you drink, the safer you are. Vegetarians are immune. (In India, probably all corona deaths were among the meat eaters). The list is too long to be covered in a short article.

Why are the conspiracy theories booming? First, because they are akin to fairytales for adults. Like fairytales, they have villains, a motive, and an intricate plot to harm good people. (Meaning those believing in the conspiracy theories). Many adults retain their childhood innocence in late adulthood. They continue to trust fairy tales.

Second, in crisis times, such theories help establish a certain logic to the events. It is psychologically comforting. When scientists say they don’t know everything about the virus, there is a knowledge gap. That void can be filled with a nice conspiracy theory.

Third, when people like Trump talk against science, public mistrust gets a boost.

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It is tolerable if a conspiracy theory remains just a fairy tale. It becomes dangerous when the believers start acting on it.

Since January, social media has linked coronavirus to 5G technology. In the UK, during the lockdown, anti-5G protestors were busy vandalizing 5G masts. Razor blades were hidden behind anti-5G posters on telegraph poles. Between April and June, there were 264 incidents of verbal and physical abuse against 5G engineers. 99 telecom masts have been set on fire.

Similar attacks and arson acts took place in New Zealand as well.

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In the UK, 60% of those who believe 5G causes coronavirus said they got their information from YouTube. Social media is the biggest source and disseminator for conspiracy theories. Facebook, YouTube and Twitter are unregulated platforms. Almost anything can be said and distributed on them. Due to pressure, they have now removed hundreds of thousands of videos and posts related to Covid-19 that could lead to imminent harm. In the UK, FB has attached warning labels to 50 million pieces of Covid-19 related content. Amazon removed more than a million products claiming to cure or prevent Covid-19 from their catalogues.

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Just because a lot of people say something, it doesn’t become the truth.

Ravi

Corona Daily 399: The Formula E Race

Daniel Abt’s Audi was moving fast and dangerously. Leading most of the way, it was expected to win the race. But the car came in contact with Stoffel Vandoorne’s Mercedes-Benz. The hundreds of thousands of fans watching the race on their screens screamed, though it was obvious drivers won’t get a scratch even in a serious crash. Taking advantage of the swerving of the other two cars, Oliver Rowland accelerated his Nissan to win the virtual race. Daniel Abt came third.

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Sport lovers the world over are missing their action for over three months. Djokovich tried to organize a real tennis tournament, the only positive part of which was the corona test results. Football and cricket are difficult to translate to video games, but not car racing. In fact, there are sim racing competitions, and professional sim racers who drive skillfully on screen.

Formula E is a real-world competition for electric-powered racing vehicles. In May, it organized a virtual “Race at Home” challenge. The virtual series imitated a real season. On screens, races looked almost real, if you ignored the dummy unmoving spectators. The beauty of the concept was that the real Formula E drivers competed, sitting in their respective homes. The race series happened on “rFactor2”, a video game. Fans watched it live on TV, YouTube and Twitch (Amazon). The revenue was donated to UNESCO.

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Daniel Abt, 27, is a German racing driver, part of the Audi team since 2014. He has taken part in every Formula E race for the past six years. He comes from a family of race drivers. His father Hans-Jurgen Abt, runs the company that oversees the Audi Formula E team.

Being an experienced race driver doesn’t guarantee success in a virtual race. Daniel took time to adapt. In the first four rounds, he couldn’t score a single point. But in the fifth round, he seemed to have regained his form. Except for a small mishap, his car should have won the race.

On finishing the race, Vandoone, the Mercedes driver called Daniel. The call wasn’t answered. Vandoone then shared his suspicions with the organizers. Someone who hadn’t scored a single point in four rounds was suddenly driving like a pro. And during the race, Daniel’s face couldn’t be seen. It was hidden behind a microphone.

Organisers checked the IP addresses of the competitors. Lorenz Horezing, a teenager, was actually behind the wheel Daniel was pretending to be behind. Hoerzing is a pro-sim racer. The impersonator (technically called Ringer) was the reason for Daniel’s suddenly improved performance.

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Audi sacked Daniel Abt. He is disqualified from ever racing in an Audi. Integrity, transparency and consistent compliance with applicable rules were top priorities, said Audi. Daniel was fined 10,000 Euros and not allowed to take further part in the season. His ringer, Horezing, was also disqualified from all future rounds of a separate Challenge Grid competition.

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Daniel Abt’s story shows that small-time cheating in the virtual world can have grave consequences in the real world.

Ravi

Corona Daily 400: A Wedding in Bihar

30 year old A. worked as a software engineer at Gurgaon, a satellite city of Delhi. Gurgaon is one of the leading financial centres of India.  Since the start of the lockdown, A. was a worried man. The most important event in the life of an Indian young man is his wedding. A.’s wedding was planned on 15 June in Bihar, his native state. After two restless months, while he worked from home in Gurgaon, he managed to procure permission to travel home for the wedding. Had he been denied that permission, his life story might have taken a different turn.

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After a thermal screening, he left Gurgaon on 21 May. Every time his car was stopped, he smiled and said he was going for his own wedding. No purpose can be more essential. After successfully covering the distance of over a 1000 km, he reached his home in Nirakhpur Pali, Bihar. His family was delighted – his arrival was timely. The first ceremony was 16 days away, more than the prescribed two-week home quarantine.

On 8 June, the Tilak ceremony took place. This can be loosely translated as a groom acceptance ritual. The bride’s family judges the fitness of the groom to marry; bride’s father puts a red mark (tilak) on his forehead. Newspaper reports don’t mention what happened during A’s tilak ceremony, how many guests were present.

An Indian wedding can be an exhausting affair. Following the tilak ceremony, A. started feeling unwell. He had diarrhea initially, and fever two days before his wedding. A. discussed postponing the wedding. But both sides felt postponing would be a logistical nightmare. So much time and emotions were invested in arranging the wedding in such difficult times. Two days before and on the wedding day, A. took paracetamol tablets.

On 15 June, as planned, A., wearing his finest clothes, rode a horse from Naubatpur to Peeplawa. The Indian government currently allows a maximum of 50 guests at a wedding. It is reported that fewer than fifty people accompanied the groom on his ten kilometer procession.

Early morning on 17 June, his wedding barely a day old, A. woke up at 04.30 complaining of severe stomach pain. His father drove him to AIIMS, Patna, a well-equipped hospital. On arrival, doctors tried to give him oxygen, but they knew it served no purpose.

The family cremated A. without post-mortem, and without a test.

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On learning of A.’s death from neighbourhood gossip, the local administration suddenly woke up. It first tested the groom’s family and found eight members tested positive.

Contact tracers went into overdrive. A three day swab testing camp was organized between 24-26 June. Out of the 364 people who could have come into contact with the wedding party, 86 tested positive.

Sri Kumar Ravi, the local magistrate, equated the wedding to an act forcing the guests to commit mass suicide.

The one curious note from the news reports was that despite the super-spreading, the bride herself tested negative.

Ravi

Corona Daily 401: And the Winner is…

Now was the interesting part. In all other respects, the party was like any other party. Young boys and girls dancing, drinking, ear-piercing music, people trying to outshout the music, chips, pizzas, junk food and bottles strewn about.

The host, a third year student at the University, silenced the music to draw attention to his announcement.

‘Guys, thanks for making tonight’s party an unbelievable success. Today, our collection is an all-time record. $380 in total.’ The DJ, doubling up as treasurer for the event, held out the neatly tied up cash made up of $10 and $20 notes. He put it in a trophy placed on a high stool.

‘There’, the host said pointing to the trophy. ‘One of us is going to get all that dough. $380. I would like to welcome…’ he invited a boy to stand next to him. Everyone clapped. ‘Congratulations to our winner! He gets $240, from the last party. We have verified everything. He has a proper certificate. A genuine, good positive test. Well done!’ The infected boy waved and pocketed the cash.

‘Remember,’ the host continued. ‘The rules are simple and clear. Preserve your Covid party tickets. Except the previous winners, everyone qualifies. It is not enough to get infected. You must do a proper test, and produce a documented result. We reserve the right to verify. If all this is understood, thanks and good luck.’

There was a great rush to hug the winner. He was overwhelmed. Reciprocating, he warmly hugged and kissed everyone. Nobody knew how exactly the virus was transmitted. He wanted to be fair to everyone.

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Tuscaloosa is the seventh largest city in the state of Alabama. An educational town, it is home to the University of Alabama, and many other colleges. Alabama has had more than 40,000 confirmed cases, nearly 1000 deaths. Tuscaloosa County has had 2107 cases, 39 deaths.

On 30 June, Tuscaloosa fire chief Randy Smith told the city council he had heard about student parties where infected kids attend. He initially thought it was a rumour. However, city doctors and state officials confirm having the same information. On 1 July, city council member Sonya McKinstry testified that the Covid party was a morbid game where Covid-positive students were intentionally invited, and a competition organized with money in a pot. Whoever gets Covid first, gets the money.

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University of Alabama issued a press statement saying they have been aware of the rumours about Covid parties, but unable to identify any students who attended such parties. Alabama department of public health (ADPH) has now declared violations of home quarantine punishable by a fine up to $500 (note: more than the Covid party winning amount.) This week, an ordinance has been issued making mask-wearing mandatory in the city of Tuscaloosa.

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In the state of New York, health officials are complaining about non-cooperation from those who attended a recent party. That party caused a local outbreak. The students refuse to answer the calls. Their parents lie saying the kid was at home, when he/she wasn’t. On 1 July, the health commissioner Dr Patricia Schnabel confirmed subpoenas will be issued to force the parties to comply with contact tracing efforts. Failure to comply will cost $2000 a day.

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The cost of a subpoena is another variable American students will need to take into account before attending the next party.

Ravi

Corona Daily 402: The Elephant Mystery

Recently elephants have been in the news in a big way. On 27 May, in the Indian state of Kerala, a 15-year old pregnant female elephant ate a pineapple. It was stuffed with explosives, probably meant for a wild boar. Since March, the beginning of the lockdown, 13 elephants were found dead in the Coimbatore forest, 14 in Odisha, 6 elephants including a 20-month pregnant female died in Chhatisgarh, and 10 in Sirumugai forest range.   

In Bangladesh, three elephants were found electrocuted on 14 June. In search of food, they probably ventured out to places they normally don’t go to.

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Elephants are expensive to maintain. They eat 300 kg of grass and vegetables every day. A special place with lots of cubic feet needs to be rented for them. Monthly expense for their upkeep can easily go up to $6000.

In Thailand, nearly 4000 elephants living in zoos or sanctuaries relied on tourists. Once the lockdown began, it became impossible to maintain them. More than 100 elephants, escorted, walked 100 miles from Mae Wang to Ban Huay to reach their original villages. Some of them went home after twenty years, and expressed their happiness by musically lifting their trunks. Many others have been sent back to the wild to fend for themselves.

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What is happening in Botswana has mystified scientists. With more than 135,000 elephants roaming freely in unfenced parks and open spaces, Botswana is the number one elephant country. Almost 400 elephants have mysteriously died in the last three months, 70% of them from May onwards. During a three hour flight, conservationists spotted 169 carcasses, an extraordinarily high number. On further investigation, 350 carcasses were found. This is in the area of Okavango Delta (grassland), one of Africa’s natural wonders.

The victims are male and female, of all ages. They have not been killed by poachers; the (ivory) tusks are intact. Nobody tried to take away the tusks. Cyanide or other poisoning is ruled out because no other animal in the vicinity has died. Neither have the scavenging vultures feeding on the carcasses. Many elephants have died in an upright position, suggesting sudden death. The ones who are alive look lethargic and disoriented. One elephant was found circling aimlessly, unable to decide the direction.

The lockdown has delayed post-mortems, collecting and analyzing samples. The samples collected so far have ruled out Anthrax or poisoning. Biologist Dr Niall McCann suspects something is attacking their neurological systems.

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A legend says old wild elephants leave the herd when they sense approaching death. Alone, the old elephant walks away and goes deep into the jungles or on mountains to die. This is called the ‘elephant graveyard’ legend. Zoologists call this an unresolved mystery. A single herd can comprise of fifty to hundred elephants.

Finding hundreds of elephant carcasses is an unusual event. It has never happened except during a drought.

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With poaching, anthrax and poison ruled out, the other possibility raised by Dr McCann is some sort of an epidemic (other than coronavirus). Something that can be transmitted to humans as well. Other than being a conservation disaster, it then becomes another public health crisis.

Following the Botswana mystery, India should also investigate the true reasons for dozens of elephants dying across India in a short span of time.

Ravi