Corona Daily 413: Blockbuster of the Month

Eric Tabach, utterly bored and frustrated by the lockdown, had an idea. Eric is a small time actor and YouTuber. For a few years, he had worked as a viral video producer at BuzzFeed.

He spoke to Christian Nilsson, one of the little known film makers in New York. Christian liked Eric’s idea. Yes, he would be happy to make the film with Eric. Inspired, on 9 May, Christian sat in front of his laptop, and by midnight, had completed the script. A horror film, its title was “Unsubscribe”. The plot was lockdown friendly. A sinister internet troll tricks a group of YouTubers into joining a Zoom call. The killer stalks the characters on camera.

Eric started speaking to everyone who bothered to answer his call. He explained his idea, and shared the plot. Apologetically, he admitted it was a zero budget movie. Surprisingly, some well known actors agreed to act for free. They were utterly bored themselves. Charlie Tahan (Ozark fame) would play the killer, Michelle Khare, the other lead. A few other well known YouTube actors joined in.

The whole project was shot in a week’s time in May. Of course, all the actors performed on Zoom, without ever leaving their homes. Eric needed a couple of weeks to edit. A composer friend obliged by making an original score for the film. The horror film was now ready for release.

*****

From his BuzzFeed days, Eric knew an industry practice called “four-walling”. A filmmaker buys the entire cinema theatre for a fee. Cinemas are happy to let the filmmaker collect money from tickets, if any. Four-walling is like self-publishing. It is a loophole that allows a filmmaker to claim an official release. If lucky, the film can get reviews in reputed newspapers.

Eric contacted the Westhampton Beach movie theatre in New York, and rented it for a whole day. The theatre owners were surprised but happy to get a client.

On the night of the screening, Eric and Christian wore tuxedos, groomed their hair as well as they could, and asked a passerby to take their picture in front of the theatre. “Unsubscribe- Sold Out” in the background made them truly proud.

They sat with large cups of popcorn, and saw the film again and again. Five times in total. They were the only two spectators in the entire auditorium.

*****

Now Eric started calling IMDb.  IMDb is the owner of Box Office Mojo, the company that audits and publishes the American box office rankings. They didn’t believe that the film existed, and that people like Charlie Tahan played in it. Finally, Eric sent them a copy of the film. IMDb called Tahan and the other actors, they confirmed they had actually acted in Unsubscribe.

The total revenue of Unsubscribe was $25,488. On 10 June, it became the #1 movie of America, the blockbuster of June 2020. Eric Tabach, as he had planned from the outset, joined the illustrious list of Stephen Spielberg, James Cameron, Ridley Scott and Christopher Nolan.

Ravi

Corona Daily 414: The Model Mouse

Jackson laboratory, Maine (JAX) specializes in breeding laboratory mice. It also has facilities in China. On 3 February, Qiming Wang, a researcher in the Shanghai office emailed the American lab and described the situation in China. Every weekend he would take a bullet train to be with his family in Wuhan. Some people in his building had tasted positive. Scary time. How could JAX help?

The Jackson lab researchers discussed ways to develop new mice to understand the novel coronavirus. Someone remembered Dr Perlman’s mice. During the SARS epidemic, Stanley Perlman had genetically engineered mice. In a 2007 paper, he wrote SARS was unlikely to be the last coronavirus. His mice might be useful in future.

Since that time, Dr Perlman had cryo-preserved (stored at extremely low temperatures) vials of sperm from these mice. In February, he emptied his freezer, and sent the entire semen stock to Jackson labs. In a few weeks, with an IVF treatment for mice, hundreds of Perlman mice were born.

*****

For animal trials, mice are less expensive, easy to maintain, and multiply quickly. Before trying a drug or vaccine on humans, it is usually tried on mice.

Our bodies have an enzyme called ACE2. Mice don’t have this human enzyme. In 2003, SARS virus couldn’t infect them. Dr Perlman had genetically modified the mice to add the human ACE2 receptors in them. SARS ended too quickly for the Perlman mice to be used widely.

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ACE2 serves as an entry point for the novel coronavirus. With its spikes it clings to the ACE2 receptors. The 2020 Perlman mice refused to get ill with Covid-19. Scientists found out why. The human ACE-2 was added in the mice, but the mouse ACE-2 was not deducted. Also the human version of the gene was wrongly placed.

Dr Wang Youchan from Beijing succeeded in removing those shortcomings. The latest genetically modified mice have only the human ACE-2 in the exact specific location on the X chromosome. Dr Wang used a state-of-the-art gene editing technology that did not exist in the times of the Perlman mice. As far as the virus is concerned, the Dr Wang mice are almost human.

*****

Dr Wang’s tests show the virus attacks the mice’s lungs, tracheas (windpipes) and digestive systems. Older mice are getting more ill than younger ones. One surprising thing is that the virus is replicating in the brains of the mice. In humans, that is not detected so far, except the loss of smell in some patients. Covid-19 has not been fatal to mice, but they get sick, lose weight and develop lung damage.

*****

There is a huge demand for genetically modified mice. Drugs and vaccine creators order custom-made mice for diabetes, cancer, blood disorders or any other disease. China sells a pair for $17,000. Currently the market is worth $ 1.40 billion. The pups of those mice may not inherit those (artificial) traits. In other words, they may be born natural, with no human genes.

In the last three months, many universities, and research labs had to euthanize (in simple language, kill) their colonies of lab mice, because nobody could look after them. But sperm vials of the important or rare mice are usually cryo-preserved.

*****

Not all rodents are a menace. Lab mice sacrifice their health or life so that the human race can save itself.

Ravi

Corona Daily 415: The Pied Piper Effect

Do you miss going to a restaurant? Ordering more than necessary while chatting happily? A waiter clearing your unfinished dinner plate? Someone else misses it more than you do. The rats.

The last three months have been cataclysmic for urban rats. Rodentologists (such a profession exists) have noted their unusual, aggressive behavior. Rats are essentially nocturnal, but now they can be seen any time of the day. They are moving in parts of the cities not visited ever before. The British pest control association saw a 51% rise in rat call-outs since March. Two miles north of my house in Mumbai, rats have ravaged law books in the Small Cause Court library.

Rats are social animals. Living in colonies, their territory is generally limited to a 150-200 foot diameter. The colony outside a restaurant will be very loyal to it-a rat can spend its entire 2-3 year lifespan eating kitchen waste and night trash. Now with the closure of restaurants, cafes, and delis rats experience a famine. They are migrating en masse in search of food and water. They are so hungry and desperate; they are roaming during the day, unafraid of humans and traffic.

And rat cannibalism has begun. Rat colonies have a class system, and a complex hierarchy. Alpha male rats eat first, and have the first mating rights. They also get the best burrows and nests. Beta males and others may sleep outside a nest or burrow. The alpha rats are now killing other rats and eating the newborns. Landmark pest management in Chicago captured 19 rats between 20 April-20 May, but only two in the next two weeks, making them believe in rat cannibalism. Recently, I have come across a couple of wounded rats in my neighbourhood.

Rats are intelligent. They are usually wary about entering traps. Pest control associations report it is becoming easier to catch them. Rat baits with peanut butter, bacon and oats are trapping rats in a matter of minutes.

Does this mean the rat menace will go away? Not at all. A female rat can deliver litters of ten pups every few weeks. Cities like Chicago and New York have never managed to solve the rat problem. New York City has 2 million rats. Each of the 109 mayors of New York has had plans to snuff out the scourge. As NYT pointed out, their collective score is 0-109.

No matter where you live, check the space under your doors. If more than half inch, seal it. Plug up any holes in the house. Store food in safe locations. Clean plates thoroughly soon after eating. Don’t eat pizza in bed, in the toilet, on the couch, in the garden. Carefully dispose of garbage. (Remember rats chew through plastic bins). Set rat traps. Except in China and Vietnam, where they eat rats, coronavirus has not been found in rats. But they can very well transmit plague and leptospiriosis. We can do without those. If the situation becomes unbearable, contact your local pest control.

Rats can’t order takeaways, nor online. For their sake, we must look forward to the day when restaurants reopen, produce lots of night trash outside, and rat colonies resettle in their original homes.

Ravi

Corona Daily 416: Presidential Theatre

Unlike the Putin pandemic, the Trump virus has a time limit. But the lust for power is common.

Trump begins his grand campaign to once again make America great on Saturday, 20 June at Tulsa, Oklahoma. The boisterous rally will take place at a center packed with over 19000 people. Trump has tweeted a million supporters have shown interest in attending (the population of Tulsa is 400,000).

Media reports point to the advisory issued by Trump’s government: The highest risk of Covid-19 transmission is posed by large in-person gatherings where it is difficult for individuals to remain spaced at least six feet apart and attendees travel from outside the local area. Trump criticizes the media’s double standards by pointing out the ‘Black Lives Matter’ rallies that happened in Democrat states.

The difference is those rallies were spontaneous, and held outdoors. Like with passive smoking, the risk of virus transmission is high indoors. Pence, when asked, pointed to the freedom of speech and right to assemble enshrined in the first amendment.

Tulsa and Oklahoma are heavily Republican. Tulsa is known for the race massacre (1921) where dozens of Blacks were killed and their property destroyed by White mobs. Initially, Trump had announced the rally on 19 June (Juneteenth), the day that celebrates the end of slavery in the USA.

After protests, Trump agreed to push the rally by a day. Anyone wanting to register for or attend the rally must sign a waiver: By attending the Rally, you and any guests voluntarily assume all risks related to exposure to Covid-19 and agree not to hold Donald J. Trump for President, Inc.; BOK center; ASM Global; or any of their affiliates, directors, officers, employees, agents, contractors, or volunteers liable for any illness or injury.

The BOK center, Tulsa, the place of the event, has so far cancelled or postponed concerts by Bon Jovi, KISS and Justin Bieber. Except Trump’s rally, no event is scheduled there until 30 July. On Saturday, the gates will open at 3 pm; the event begins at 7 pm. More than 19,000 people will be crammed with the man on the stage refusing to wear a mask. Encouraged, most supporters will unmask themselves. An average Trump speech runs longer than an hour. His audience, warmly close to one another, will shout slogans and chant. The 300 toilets in the center will be shared by the 19000 people. Coronavirus is neither Republican nor Democrat. But if it needed a stage and an arena for a grand impact, a better recipe couldn’t be conceived.

*****  

Donald Trump, now 74, is the oldest first term US president in history. He is obese, his medical conditions not known, because Trump is a master of not disclosing.

Joe Biden, 77, has survived two brain surgeries, takes blood thinners and medication for acid reflux, cholesterol and allergies. If elected, he will become the oldest president in US history.

The craving for power makes politicians blind. In 1991, Rajeev Gandhi wanted to regain India’s Prime Ministership. And Benazir Bhutto Pakistan’s in 2007. Both were given repeated specific advice not to mingle with crowds. Their lust for power made them ignore the advice, and both were blown by suicide bombers weeks before the election.

Trump and Biden don’t run the assassination risk. But if they start holding rallies, mixing with crowds and shaking hands, coronavirus may decide who will reach the finish line.

Unfortunately, just like Gandhi and Bhutto, reckless politicians take away many other lives along with them.

Ravi

Corona Daily 417: Constitutional Autarchy

Vladimir Putin is in a tearing hurry. He is bored in his Novo-Ogaryovo residence outside Moscow. Three special disinfection tunnels have been built to protect him. The virus has disrupted his grand, visionary plans, but being Vladimir Putin he will have the last word.

This is the 21^st year of his ruling the world’s largest country. When the USSR collapsed, and nascent Russia finally wished to live freely, the constitution limited the president’s power to two terms of four years, like in the USA. But an anonymous mischief inserted a word “two consecutive terms”. Since 2003, Putin has proclaimed he respects the constitution, has no lust for power, and he certainly wouldn’t dream of extending his rule. However, while saying this, he found a marionette called Medvedev. On completing eight years, Putin swapped places with Medvedev. The world knew the difference between de jure and de facto, but oil prices were high, relations with Ukraine were peaceful, so everyone ignored the charade.

In Dec. 2008, Putin provoked the marionette to extend the next president’s term to six instead of four years. Nobody asked why; in Putin’s Russia, you don’t. Using the non-consecutive loophole, Putin officially re-sat on his throne in 2012. He is now allowed to continue his autarchy till 2024. By then, Russia’s most masculine man, a black belt judo champ will be only 72. (Trump is already older). Surely, for Russia’s benefit, Putin must continue for at least another two terms, till 2036.

Putin respects the constitution. If the constitution doesn’t allow something, he gets it amended. In 2024, Putin wants to reset the clock to zero, meaning despite serving for 25 years, he hasn’t served as a president yet. A national referendum asking people to approve this change was planned on 22 April (Lenin’s 150^th birthday, a nice touch), but this goddamned virus came in the way.

Russia is now third on the list in terms of the number of cases. Moscow is a hotspot. Moscow’s April statistics suggested at least 1000 covid-19 deaths were not reported. The lockdown has been strict. Mayday had to be cancelled. Workers have been sent on mandatory leave. The risk of contagion remains high. The only news worse than the pandemic is that Putin’s popularity score is at a record low of 59%.

Like a chess grandmaster, Putin visualizes the endgame before making his moves. Before his rating goes below 50%, he must conduct a referendum to be in power till 2036. He ignores the concerns of the local leaders, the Moscow mayor, and announces a national vote on 1 July.

To boost the votes, he also announces Victory Day (normally 9 May) will take place on 24 June. Presumably, Putin will cross the disinfection tunnel, and appear without any protective gear. The grand display of power will make Russians proud. Muscovites have been asked to watch it on TV, but the president knows the streets will be full. Hopefully, that orgasmic feeling will last for a week until voting time.

On 1 July, Russians will go to vote to keep Putin in power until 2036. Each voter’s temperature will be measured. Disposable masks, disposable gloves, individual disinfected pens and sanitisers will be available at the booth. The largest country will exercise its constitutional right to let its autarch continue to rule over them for ever.

Ravi

Corona Daily 418: Anatomy of the Novel Coronavirus

The SARS-C0V-2 baby is now more than six months old. Epidemiologists, scientists and frontline doctors have described it in variety of ways.

Like all viruses, it is not a living organism. It can’t reproduce itself unless it enters a living host. Once the viral code, like a burglar, breaks into a human body, it uses the body’s genetic machinery, and instructs it to produce a new code - new virus. Some medical writers compare it to a microscopic Xerox machine.

Out of the trillions of viruses that exist, a few hundred thousand are known. Only 6828 virus species have names. Only about 250 of them, including the novel coronavirus, can infect humans. It is twice the size of a flu virus, and 50% larger than the Ebola virus. Still, it is 10,000 times smaller than a millimeter, one thousandth the width of a human hair. A wonderful NYT article says: If a person were the size of earth, the virus would be the size of a person.

SARS-C0V-2 has been called a genius. During the SARS pandemic, symptoms were visible immediately. The current virus infects, and waits. The infected person, feeling healthy, infects dozens of others, and only then starts feeling ill. SARS-C0V-2 can use something as basic as the human voice for transmission. People talking energetically, loudly, or singing, can spread it beyond the social distance boundaries.

Genome analysis has concluded it is a nature-made virus, not born in any human lab. A virus that can quickly spread to two hundred countries, infect prime ministers, princes, and paupers, lock down millions, and bring the world to its knees is too potent to be made by humans.

*****

Once SARS-C0V-2 enters, it resides in the nose and throat for 2-3 days, before descending into the lungs. Air sacs in the lungs get inflamed and are unable to gather oxygen as they should. Symptoms can differ. Dry cough, low fever, shortness of breath, loss of sense of smell or taste, toes becoming red and inflamed, even something similar to a heart attack, delusion and disorientation.

An important fact is 35% of the infected people feel nothing, but they continue to spread it. (If it is a microscopic Xerox machine, not all photocopies are the same). The others can get pneumonia, internal drowning sensation and can become desperate for oxygen. One doctor describes its ferocity as breathtaking and humbling. The novel coronavirus can damage the walls of the heart, attack the lining of the blood vessels, induce strokes, seizures, inflammation of the brain, and damage kidneys.

Some patients experience the cytokine storm. When the virus invades the body, the immune system becomes alert and starts the fight. The frontline soldiers are protein molecules called cytokines. Usually a strong immune response defeats the intruder and the immune system is supposed to sheathe the sword. In young healthy patients, this is what happens. But in some serious patients, the immune system is over reactive and keeps fighting, even when the virus is gone. That misguided zeal attacks multiple organs, including the lungs and liver. In those patients, it is the storm that kills, not the virus.

*****

After reading the cytokine storm description, I wondered whether it can apply to our response to the pandemic. Will the protracted lockdowns, simultaneous crushing of demand and supply, promising disproportionate fiscal and monetary stimuli turn out to be cytokine storms – an overreaction that can kill even when the virus is gone?

Ravi

Corona Daily 419: Suicides are Preventable

Triggered by yesterday’s article, I will discuss suicides again, however unpleasant the topic sounds. Suicides can be prevented by talking more about them, not less.

Research suggests during the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic, suicides grew. Surprisingly, during the First World War which preceded it, they didn’t. During the 2003 SARS epidemic, which fortunately didn’t last long, many elderly people committed suicide.

Several reasons are offered for suicides to spike up during pandemics. Mental ill-health, social isolation, entrapment, grieving for the unnecessary loss of loved ones, loneliness, feeling of hopelessness, unresolved anger or irritation, the stigma of being infected, unemployment, financial strain, domestic violence, excessive alcohol consumption and irresponsible media reporting.

Social distancing is an unfortunate term introduced without consulting psychologists. It should be physical distancing. Social isolation is one of the root causes of suicide, and now that term is freely used.

*****

The young are particularly vulnerable. Students who spent years preparing for competitive exams which didn’t happen. Undergrads analysing job market reports. Young couples with decades-long mortgages based on jobs that are no longer secure. Young people without family or state support. In the absence of savings and job security, suddenly survival is at stake.

Suicides are the most preventable form of death. There is an international association for suicide prevention (IASP). Its website has suicide crisis helplines for every country. Every year 10 September is celebrated as the world suicide prevention day. Currently, there is a sudden surge in the calls which is a good sign. Most government and private organizations offer tele-mental health, online.

*****

What can people who are not suicidal do to prevent suicides?

Keep an eye on single people, of any age. Make sure there is constant communication with them. Talk regularly to neighbours, friends, family who live alone.

Now in this age of social media, look for signs on their FB or Twitter posts. Many suicide victims had given enough clues about their intentions. Their FB friends regretted not acting on them in time.

If a person you know starts getting drunk more often or drinking more, it’s a sign of danger. Alcohol and drugs can induce suicide by temporarily killing reason - the same person wouldn’t do this when sober.

An eye must be kept on the sudden presence or increase in the means of killing. In the USA, retailers should be more careful when selling firearms. They make suicides so easy. The stock of pesticides or medicines going up is another sign somebody is contemplating suicide.

Those who had tested positive, and have recovered are absolutely like every other person. In many countries, they are stigmatized. People openly avoid them. This is the pandemic apartheid which creates a feeling of guilt. All we can do as individuals is to treat them as we would if there was no pandemic.

Encourage others to stop looking at coronavirus scorecards. The majority of the world population is not statisticians. Small numbers appear too big for them. As projected at the beginning of the pandemic, at least 100,000 people should be dying every day of Covid-19. Globally, only 5000 are dying daily. Irrespective of the number of cases, 99.99% of the population is alive. Share those facts with people who get depressed or frightened. Life can suddenly become worth living for them.

Ravi

Corona Daily 420: Your Own Worst Enemy

Sushant Singh Rajput, 34, a Bollywood star and a talented actor, hanged himself in his bedroom this morning. Earlier this week, his former manager, Disha Salian, 28, had allegedly taken her own life by jumping from the fourteenth floor of her Mumbai building. The two suicides are not related to each other, but both were probably related to the pandemic.

Even without the pandemic, suicides are surprisingly high, more than double that of homicide at the global level. Every 40 seconds someone in the world kills himself/herself. Sapiens fame Yuval Noah Harari made a witty comment: “Statistically you are your own worst enemy. Of all the people in the world, you are most likely to be killed by yourself.”  

*****

Since March, a variety of suicides have been reported. Thomas Schafer, 54, the German state finance minister, threw himself in front of a train. He was worried that as a minister he wouldn’t be able to fulfill his obligations to the German people. A Japanese chef set himself on fire. He was scheduled to carry the Olympic torch. That was cancelled, and his restaurant shut as well. Dr Lorna Breen, 49, an emergency room doctor in New York City couldn’t bear witnessing the agonies in the covid-19 ward. Emily Owen, 19, a British girl felt the world was closing in. She was terrified of the spread of coronavirus. Daniela Trezzi, 34, an Italian nurse, was overly stressed about infecting others when she tested positive. The list is endless…

*****

There is a subtle difference between the suicide of Sushant Singh Rajput and the list above. Sushant was reportedly depressed for over six months. People suffering from mental illnesses may have suicidal thoughts. But converting these thoughts into a completed act is a long journey. Sylvia Plath in the Bell Jar portrays that process. Despite successive attempts, the protagonist of that book is alive at its end. However, the author herself committed suicide when she was barely 30 years old. If you haven’t read the Bell Jar, I recommend you don’t read it.

Super-busy people like Sushant can continue living with suicidal thoughts at the back of their mind. To denote excessive busy-ness, an idiom in Marathi says: “I have no time to consume poison”. Sounds illogical, but the idiom has an element of truth. When the body and mind are busy, a depressed and anxious person can take a break from suicidal thoughts and actions. His depression may not go away, but the mind has less time to work out an action plan.

The Mumbai lockdown of the last 2 ½ months gave Sushant’s mind too much time. He had enough success, fame and money not to worry about the financial consequence of the pandemic. But the social distancing, isolation and inactivity perhaps deepened the fears and anxieties stored in his troubled mind.

In normal times, he would now be travelling, lip-syncing songs, dancing around trees, laughing and crying into the camera, attending his film launches and signing autographs. All that was replaced by focus on an unnamed anxiety, depression and suicidal thoughts. Sushant is a collateral victim of the coronavirus.

Ravi

Corona Daily 421: The 4-3-2-1 Football Game

The 91-year old La Liga is Spain’s top football league. Even if you are not a football fan, the names Lionel Messi or Real Madrid would sound familiar. Messi is the all-time top scorer of La Liga. Real Madrid and Barcelona generally compete for the season’s trophy.

Some six months ago, on 15 December, a league game was played between Rayo Vallecano and Albacete. Rayo is a Madrid club, and this was a home game played at the Vallecas stadium in Madrid. Rayo fans are traditionally left-leaning, anti-fascist, and more aggressive than average football fans (meaning they won’t stop at anything). In that game, the opponents Albacete had a Ukrainian player called Roman Zozulya. Rayo fans, for reasons best known to them, think Zozulya is a Nazi supporter.

They turned for the match with posters saying “this is not a place for Nazis.” When the game began, they started chanting anti-Zozulya songs, with ‘Nazi’ in the refrain. Referee Jose Toca’s whistles could occasionally halt the game on-field, but they couldn’t stop the chanting. The relentless abuse continued throughout the first half. Eddy Israfilov, an Albacete player, was shown a red card and sent back. Other than that nothing happened in the 45 minutes of play. The score was 0:0.

During the interval, Zozulya’s team decided they couldn’t take the mass musical abuse any more. Rayo Vallecano agreed with them. The referee gave his consent to halt the game, and resume it in future once a mechanism was found to control the crowd’s emotions.

*****

The logistics of La Liga are complex, and the day on which the game was set to resume fell on a day after the Spanish lockdown. Already thousands of Spaniards were hospitalized, and hundreds dead, when La Liga came to a complete stop. For nearly three months, no football would be played.

On 8 June, the Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez gave the green signal for La Liga’s resurrection. It is noteworthy that schools and universities in Spain remain shut, but football has resumed. Spain understands life’s priorities well. Of course, the games can be watched only on television, no spectators please.

Officials discussed the unprecedented resumption. Playing after three months of inactivity, no pre-season and no fans. And we jump straightaway into a full football game?

No, said one clever official. Not a full game. Let’s start with the unfinished half-game.

*****

On Wed. 10 June, La Liga’s first resumption match took place between Rayo Vallecano and Albacete.

Players from both sides arrived at the stadium wearing masks and gloves. Their temperatures were checked. Unlike in Germany, they were not tested for corona. A special team was busy disinfecting every ball their feet would touch.

Eddy Israfilov tried to argue he should play. In fact, he had played a few games after the suspended December game. Shouldn’t a red card have an expiry date, he asked. He was being punished for his offence six months ago, was it fair? Yes, it was, said the referee. As a result, Albacete played with 10 players, Rayo Vallecano with 11. Rayo scored a single goal and won the game.

Roman Zozulya played for the entire 45 minutes. There was nobody in the stands to abuse him.

The title “The 4-3-2-1 football game” doesn’t refer to any field formation. The game took 4321 hours from start to finish, becoming the longest game in football’s history.

Ravi

Corona Daily 422: Quarantine Pod

Months of social distancing showed that despite whatsApp and Zoom, we remain social animals. We miss meeting people in person. How closely we interact with known and unknown people became clear when we tried to keep the absurd two meters distance from others.

For a long time, we may continue to be confined in some ways. Jail inmates who interact with one another are happier than those in isolation cells.

On 4 June, researchers from Oxford suggested three distancing strategies for gradually moving out of isolation.

First, they recommend limiting interaction to a few repeated contacts, by forming a social bubble. To give an analogy: rather than eating once in five different restaurants, eat at one trusted restaurant five times. You will intake the same calories, sacrifice variety, but reduce the risk of food poisoning.

Second, seek similarity across contacts. The closer they live from you, the better. Age, interests, political views or children of similar ages may be a factor. Employers can form a workers’ bubble, and schools a teacher/students bubble.

Third, strengthen communities using triangular strategies. Meaning, choose bubble partners with whom you may have lots of common friends. In Facebook language, those with whom you have maximum mutual friends. That way your interaction outside your bubble becomes less risky.

*****

Forming of social bubbles is called strategic distancing. Instead of a total self-isolation (risk for sanity), or a free-for-all mixing (virus risk); the proposal emphasizes on similar, community-based, repetitive contacts. The Oxford paper recommends that teams of doctors at a Covid hospital should also be formed into bubbles, given the same shifts, and kept away from other doctors to reduce transmission risk.

Belgium, with the highest per capita death among developed nations, allows every house to invite up to four guests. New Zealand allowed meeting with up to 10 people. This does not mean meeting any ten people, but forming a bubble of ten people. Meet with them repeatedly, and try not to meet anyone else. As the situation improves, you keep increasing the size of the bubble.

*****

“Social bubble” or “quarantine pod” (even quaranteam) is a Covid buzzword.

Once you or your family decide to form a bubble (pod) with another family, the other party’s willingness needs to be judged. A bit like a marriage proposal.  If the other party accepts, both sides need to agree many things in advance. Does everyone wear a mask? How do you wash groceries? The procedures you follow on returning home. Do you order any takeaway food? How often do you go out, in what form of transport, and why. (Sounds like a pre-nuptial agreement). This agreement is based on trust. The bubble is as safe as its least safe member. And the price is high. Any member getting infected sends both families into 14-day isolation.

Would it be offensive for someone to reject a bubble offer from friends? Not necessarily. Just like we keep marriage and friendships separate, it is possible to keep social bubbles separate from friendships. The closest friends may be located too far for bubble-forming.  Not very likely, but some people may prefer to form bubbles with relatives.

If, for some reason, the bubble bursts, the ethical thing for both sides is to have a 14-day cool-down period before switching over to a new bubble. And then start all over again.

Ravi