Corona Daily 430: Zen Enlightenment

In the mountains of Vermont, surrounded by unending acres of forest, is the Monastic Academy founded by one Soryu Forall. He runs the institution in the Rinzai Zen tradition. An apprentice pays $6000 and can live for a year or more to transform himself and the world. The academy’s aim is classical enlightenment.

One of the staff members is a young and enthusiastic Daniel Thorson, 33. A few years ago, he had organized the Occupy Wall Street movement. He joined the academy to be able to serve the world better in times of crisis. Daniel is a podcaster and online philosopher. Silent meditation and retreat from the day-to-day world are said to be one of the highest paths to enlightenment. Daniel had been waiting for a couple of years to get to do a solo retreat. Its purpose was to understand true awakening and enlightenment. This year he finally got the golden opportunity.

On 13 March, he tweeted he would be offline for the next 75 days. He then switched his phone off, and entered his log cabin retreat, to begin life without a smartphone, Wifi, TV, or newspapers. Most of his awaken hours were spent meditating with eyes shut. Twice every day, he silently walked to the kitchen to pick up the vegan meal provided by the Academy. Interaction with humans was prohibited. Days, then weeks, began to pass without Daniel speaking or hearing a single word.

On Tues. 23 May, he rejoined the material world. He switched the phone on, but had no time to look at the thousands of Twitter messages. Before going out of the cabin, he posted a single tweet: “I am back from 75 days of silence. Did I miss anything?”

Daniel decided to visit the nearby supermarket. Buy things he hadn’t seen for 75 days. For some reason, he felt everyone in the supermarket was staring at him. He wondered if his face shone with enlightenment. Then he noticed the masks. Why masks? His hand inadvertently stroked his long unshapely beard.

When he queued up at the counter, a lady ahead of him said, “Excuse me, you are standing too close.” Her tone was accusatory. Daniel’s face turned red. He took a couple of steps back, and those behind him avoided him as if he was a leper.

Back at the academy, he thought he would check the strange events in the supermarket with his camp mates. But his colleagues were meditating. He decided to check the internet first. After 75 days of silence, he must catch up on the US presidential election, Brexit, the baseball scores, Australian wildfires. Every newspaper he opened was carrying a special edition on Coronavirus. He opened his Twitter account. All messages were about a virus. His cousin had messaged him saying he had found a new girlfriend, but had not met her yet. Many friends invited him to Zoom. Zoom, where was this place?

When contacted yesterday, he was trying to figure out how the George Floyd protestors across USA were maintaining social distance to be safe. Daniel, the 75-day Rip Van Winkle, will perhaps need a few more weeks to get truly enlightened.

Ravi

Corona Daily 431: Virus Eradicated from Italy?

‘In reality, the virus clinically no longer exists in Italy.’ Announced Dr Alberto Zangrillo, triumphantly, on Sunday. He heads the intensive care unit at a hospital in Lombardy, Milan, Italy’s pandemic hotspot. Italians know Dr Zangrillo as the personal doctor of Silvio Berlusconi. ‘Experts are too alarmist about predicting a second wave of infections.’ He added.  For him, the Italian government’s plan to add another 150,000 IC beds makes no sense. Holding the country hostage to such predictions must stop. SARS and MERS disappeared, so will this virus. Dr Matteo Bassetti supported him by saying the virus had weakened and today Covid-19 was different.

Italians watching the TV interview and the Corona-skeptics slept wonderfully on Sunday night.

*****

Monday, 1 June, brought a wave of reactions from doctors and professors in the UK.

Prof. Francois Balloux, UCL, London: There is no evidence the virus has lost its ‘strength’. The outbreak in Italy is waning, but we should definitely not rule out a second wave later this year.

Dr Elisavetta Groppelli, St George’s, London: In Italy, the age of confirmed cases has been decreasing. Disease severity is less in the younger groups. The virus genome is being monitored worldwide. Consensus is there is no evidence for change in virus features.

Prof. Martin Hibberd, London: Even among symptomatic patients, 80% have mild disease. During a major outbreak, those cases are overlooked. When the number of severe cases falls, those with mild symptoms get more attention – giving the impression the virus is changing. 

Dr Oscar MacLean, Glasgow: These claims are fairly implausible on genetic grounds. Making them on the basis of anecdotal observations is dangerous.

WHO too jumped in, cautioning world leaders about reports that the virus was “losing potency”. That is not the case at all, said WHO.

Maria Van Kerkhove, the WHO epidemiologist said: The virus has not changed either in terms of severity or transmissibility. This is still a killer virus, and thousands of people are dying daily.

*****

In April and May, the two strictest lockdown months worldwide, Coronavirus killed 6000 people every day. (Compare SARS outbreak 2002-2003 had 8000 confirmed cases and 774 people died in total).

The arrival of summer and relaxation of lockdowns create a feeling that the worst is over. But seasonality of the virus is not known yet. And when the northern hemisphere has summer, the south has winter. Last week, Mexico touched a daily 500 death figure. Yesterday, Brazil had 1232 Covid-19 deaths.

Yes, Italy is waning, but more than 50 Italians still die every day. Unless a 12-month cycle is gone through, it will be premature to claim victory. Unfortunately, every summer is followed by a winter. The cases may rise again in the fall itself.

Among politicians and masses we see many self-proclaimed virologists who equate Covid-19 to the flu, who think the lockdown business is complete nonsense, who refuse to wear masks, who recommend preventive drugs, who want the world to run as always by ignoring the virus. The virus will miraculously disappear, most likely once the sun is up, they think.

I have made a request to those skeptics. Please go to your neighborhood hospital and work as volunteers in the Covid-19 wards. Volunteers are needed desperately.

Not a single person has taken up that challenge.

*****

Ravi

Corona Daily 432: Coronavirus Detectives

If you are looking for a new profession these days, an interesting one is that of a Contact Tracer. The world will need a few million of these over the next two years.

“Testing. Tracing. Isolation.” An emerging worldwide consensus terms this as the only strategy to combat the virus, to flatten the curve. Contact tracing is locating where the virus might strike next. By warning, quarantining and isolating likely patients, the transmission chain is broken.

It starts with a caller working from home or a call center talking to a patient over the phone. The caller may speak for up to 30 minutes trying to recreate the last few days of the patient. This is a delicate task. Without ever meeting him, the caller is asking the patient to disclose his private life. All the places the patient visited, and all the people he came in contact with.

The only contacts considered are face-to-face contact, with a distance of less than six feet, for 15 minutes or more. As the patient recalls each of them, the contact tracer records them. If 15 such people are found, the tracer starts calling each of them. The rule is to never disclose who gave the name (in this case, the patient).

*****

Contact tracing is easier in small countries, and in dictatorships. Singapore is both.

M, a Singaporean woman got one such call. ‘Were you in a taxi at 18.47 on Wednesday?’ The question was so precise, M panicked, but she confirmed. Next day three people in protective gear turned up at her house. One of them produced a contract. It prescribed the quarantine period, and mentioned the amount of fine and prison sentence for breach of contract. M never learnt if it was the taxi driver or another passenger in the same taxi who had tested positive.

*****

In Iceland, Europe’s most sparsely populated country with 364,000 citizens; the first contact tracer was Evar Palmi Palmason, a police detective. He formed a team with two cops, two nurses and a criminologist, even before Iceland’s first case. When they heard of the first suspect, Palmason used the same techniques he uses in his detective work. The tracing produced 56 names. By midnight, all of them were contacted and asked to quarantine themselves for two weeks. As cases in Iceland grew rapidly, the team grew as well, eventually to 52 members.

One patient had attended a concert. Palmason used his police training to find everyone who attended that concert, and sent all of them into quarantine.

Iceland successfully flattened the curve. It had ten deaths in all, and nobody has died since 19 April.

*****

South Korea has used a combination of credit card data, CCTV records, and smartphone locations. Countries using phone apps have realized the apps can only support but can’t replace human tracing. Contact tracing has been used for measles, food poisoning outbreaks, AIDS and syphilis. The requirement in the current pandemic, though, is high.

The USA and UK are just starting. USA needs 180,000 contact tracers, but has only 25,000. UK fewer than that.

An interesting profession that combines the work of a detective, social worker, salesman and data collector.  Job guaranteed for the next 24 months.

Ravi

Corona Daily 433: Your Corona Risk Score

This article discusses the risk of dying from Covid-19, rather than the risk of getting infected. If you live in New York, London, Moscow, Mumbai or a similar urban jungle, it is safe to assume you may get infected at some stage. That’s fine; more than 96% infected are guaranteed to recover. This paper offers a formula to compute our chances and the precautions we must take to be among the 96%.

Academic papers by professional statisticians are replete with confusing symbols. Their formulas are usually so convoluted as to befuddle potential users. Some statisticians specializing in survival analysis have offered hazard ratios. But without a PhD in statistics, you can’t understand or use them. The following proposal, though not scientifically precise, is simple and easy to implement. It is like the points-based immigration system. Except here, a low Corona score is better, high score is bad.

*****

Age: Start with your age.

Sex: If you are a female, add 0. / If male, add 10.

Race: Whites: add 0. / Blacks: add 10. / Brown, yellow, mixed, others: add 5.

Health conditions: (Heart disease, diabetes, asthma, high blood pressure, cancer, major liver, lung, kidney disease) First health condition: add 20/ every subsequent health condition: add 50/ Any organ transplant (such as kidney): add 70.

Profession: work mainly online: add 0. / Working among people (office/factory): add 10. / Working in care home or hospital: add 50.

Your Corona Score= Age+ points for sex +race +health conditions +profession.  

*****

Let us look at four examples.

Emily, a 26 year old white healthy school teacher in London.

Her score: 26 (age) + 0 (female) + 0 (white) + 0 (health) +10 (profession among people) = 36.

Joseph, a 55 year old black, on prescribed medicines for diabetes and high blood pressure, works at a museum in New York.

His score: 55 (age) +10 (male) + 10 (black) + 20+50 (two health conditions) +10 (work among people) = 155.

Vinay, an 81 year old Indian, no health conditions nor prescribed medicines, retired.

His score: 81 (age) +10 (male) +5 (Brown) + 0 (health) +0 (work) = 96.  

Ivan, a 49 year old healthy doctor working in a Covid ward in a Moscow hospital.

His score: 49(age) +10 (male) +0 (white) + 0 (health) + 50 (work at hospital) =109

*****

Based on the scores, I suggest four bands and the strategy for each of them.

Scores below 50: Essentially made of healthy young people not working at hospitals/care homes. They should be able to mix with people their age, hug, kiss, have sex, and able to lead a completely normal life without fear. They should take care (masks, handwash, distance) when meeting with their parents or grandparents.

Scores 51-100: Mainly people above 30 with no medical condition. This group should focus on maintaining their fitness level. Social mixing is possible, but with masks, handwash, and 1-meter distance both at work and in public places. Subject to that, should be able to lead fairly normal lives. But at the first hint of a cough or fever, must take precautions and rest.

This group includes healthy doctors, nurses and care home workers. They must wear protective gear, and test themselves regularly.

Scores 101-150: This is a mild danger zone. Elderly people with a health condition or younger people with multiple health conditions. Also organ transplant patients of any age. They should avoid using public transport. Avoid working among people. Keep a 2-3 month stock of essential medicine. Maintain a lockdown lifestyle, irrespective of what is happening outside your house.

Scores above 150: Group with the highest risk. Mainly elderly people with multiple health conditions. Migrate to a virus-free location (village?) if possible. If not, meet people exclusively on Zoom. Take walks alone. Watch Netflix. Make sure everyone living with you strictly observes mask, handwash, distance.

*****

Ravi  

Corona Daily 434: What’s Your Corona Risk Score?

Irrespective of numbers, many countries plan to slacken the lockdown in June. After ten weeks of confinement, millions will begin jogging, hugging (privately), shopping, attending schools, going to offices, flying. The epidemic is global, but the medical risk is individual. Our actions, or inactions, must be dictated by our individual risk. This article explains the factors that influence the risk. Tomorrow, I will give a mathematical formula.

We must first distinguish between (a) the risk of getting infected and (b) the risk of dying. The second event is contingent on the first. One cannot die of Covid-19 without getting infected. The best strategy to lower the risk is of course to not get infected. But if you are locked down in New York, London or Mumbai, that is nearly impossible. One piece of advice I w0uld offer to the super-rich afraid of Covid-19 is to buy quality protective gear, fly to Vietnam, Bhutan or Mongolia, and settle there till the pandemic ends. (Immunity immigration visa?) Syria's infections are few as well, but the survival rate in general can be low there.

Significant data is now available from China, USA and the UK. Six key factors define your individual risk. (a) Age (b) Sex (c) Race (d) Health conditions (e) Location (f) Profession.

Age: For those below 45, with no health condition, the risk is almost non-existent. After 65 the risk starts growing, after 80 it is significant, and after 90, very high. Declining immunity in old age contributes to this risk graph. This doesn’t mean every 80+ is in danger. Healthy 100 year olds can survive this infection, and indeed have.

Sex: Men are far more vulnerable. In China, the risk of men dying as compared to women is 1.65 times, in New York, 1.77 times. In general, women have a longer life expectancy. (It is said men are more fortunate than women. They marry later and die earlier).

Race: I was reluctant to include this. But in the USA and UK, the death of blacks is disproportionately larger to whites.

Health conditions (Comorbidities): A super-important factor. Heart disease, diabetes, asthma, high blood pressure, cancer all add to vulnerability. For a patient with two or three conditions, the risk skyrockets. UK scientists have added obesity to this list.

Location (post code):  Location was initially important for your government’s strategy. In a complete lockdown, the risk of getting infected was 1 out of 100,000. Under mitigation strategy (testing/tracing/isolation), it was 1 in 10. In ‘do nothing’ strategy, it is about 8/10. Lockdown fatigue may convert communities to ‘do nothing’. Zip Code 11369 in Queens, NYC has half its population officially infected. Newham and Brent in London have suffered the maximum deaths in the UK. Mumbai, my home town, is a hot spot.

Profession: Will you work online or offline? If offline, how many co-workers and customers you will come in contact with? The risk score of workers in care homes and hospitals rises dramatically.

Based on these factors, tomorrow’s article will offer a formula to calculate our individual risk score. Our strategy and behavior should be based on that score. 

Ravi

Corona Daily 435: Vaccine vs Vaccines

The world is waiting for a miracle vaccine to combat Coronavirus. Meanwhile 80 million children under one year of age are at risk of contracting deadly, vaccine-preventable diphtheria, measles and polio. The pandemic and lockdown have disrupted routine immunization programs.

The global vaccine initiative is the pride of human civilization. It has been hugely successful despite politicians. Since the World Health Assembly resolution in 1988, 10 million volunteers have administered 10 billion doses of polio vaccine alone. In rich countries, parents take appointments to take their children to clinics for inoculation. In India, a 1.4 billion nation, volunteers go door-to-door looking for children to vaccinate. In poor African countries, children are inoculated in communal settings, in the marketplace, in schools, in churches and mosques.

Polio, a paralyzing disease, has no cure, only a preventive vaccine. Some of my schoolmates have spent their entire life on crutches, simply because a few drops were not administered to them at the right time. In one of mankind’s most remarkable feats, polio has now been eradicated in all but three countries: Pakistan, Afghanistan and Nigeria. At the beginning of this year, Nigeria was on the verge of becoming polio-free. But once the pandemic began, Nigeria had to cancel immunizing 37.6 million children.

Africa has been affected the most. 80% of the flights that deliver vaccines and syringes to Africa were cancelled. Worldwide, health care workers were either locked down, or diverted to the Covid-19 patients. In countries where volunteers can move freely, they lack protective gear. Parents are worried about taking their children to the clinics. The flights in operation have doubled or trebled freight rates. UNICEF or other non-profit health organizations can’t afford those freights or charter flights.

In 2018, 86% of children under five were vaccinated with three doses of Diphtheria, Tetanus and Pretussis (DTP3), apart from polio and measles. Every young girl should receive HPV vaccine against cervical cancer. Most immunization programs now stand disrupted. Congo is currently fighting Ebola as well as measles. Last year 6000 died of measles. Measles epidemics are feared in the coming months in Congo, Benin, Niger, Tajikistan, Cambodia and Mongolia.

Next week, on 4 June, the Global Vaccine Summit will take place in London/online. Strategies will be presented to resume the immunization.

Every year, UNICEF sources 2.4 billion doses from 100 countries. India, the number one producer of vaccines, makes half of them. For the sake of African babies, India needs to take active steps to restart the export.

Internally, the Indian government needs to include immunization in the essential services and facilitate protective gear and transport for the volunteers.

India has so far allocated Rs 100 crore ($ 14 million) for Coronavirus vaccine development. India’s finance minister allocated a handsome Rs 13,343 crore ($ 2 billion) for 100% vaccination of its 530 million population of cattle, buffalos, sheep, goats and pigs. Let those initiatives not distract the government from catching up on the missed vaccinations for children.

Ravi

Corona Daily 436: The Wild Vicious Circle

Wild animals now face two dangers. One is from organized poaching criminal gangs. They sense the opportunities presented by the worldwide lockdown.

The African sanctuaries and national parks are shut. Safari tourism has ended. Police are busy dealing with Covid-19. Rangers are not paid their salaries. The biggest boon for the poachers is the absence of tourists. Each year, 70 million tourists visit Africa, generating nearly $200 billion, 8.5% of African GDP. Those tourists, along with their guide escorts unknowingly act as the guardian angels of these wild animals. Tourists are a much stronger deterrent for poachers than law enforcement.

Poaching gangs can now recruit poor people more easily. A starving ranger can make an excellent poacher. In places like the Okavango Delta lions, leopards, rhinos, elephants and cape buffalos are now at constant peril. Poaching gangs in Mozambique have started operations in South Africa’s Kruger national park. After a long time, Kenya reported their first elephant poaching for ivory in April. Poaching of elephants, rhinos and big cats is expected to rise further in Africa and Asia. A protracted pandemic will make the situation severe in South Africa, Botswana, Kenya, Namibia and Tanzania.

Cambodia has reported large scale deforestation caused by illegal logging (cutting of trees and stealing timber) and increase in the sale of bushmeat.

*****

That is the second big danger. Bushmeat is the term Africa uses for meat of wild animals used for food. Illegal African wildlife markets can sell the meat of Chimpanzees, monkeys, crocodiles, porcupines, pangolins, squirrels, bats, civets, mongoose, snakes, rats and many others. Elephant meat is a prized delicacy in central Africa. A typical forest elephant weighs 5000-6000 pounds and produces around 1000 pounds of edible meat. A poacher can earn $180 for the ivory, and $6000 for the meat. The average income in the Congo Basin, where elephants are poached, is $1 per day.  

*****

Since March, there is a worldwide urban to rural reverse migration. Rural people have lost their jobs and livelihoods and returned to villages and forests. This process is more pronounced in the developing nations of Asia and Africa. A famished person can’t be expected to think of morality or the environment. If governments don’t help the starving, they will engage in logging and wildlife hunting. In Africa, 301 mammal species, including primates, ungulates, bats, marsupials, rodents, carnivores, and pangolins are endangered by hunting for bushmeat. A 2-3 year pandemic with no tourists, and little patrolling will make many of them extinct.

*****

The virus epidemic sets in process a vicious circle. It forces starving people to kill and eat wild animals. It allows black markets to sell meat of a variety of wild species. This contact with the wild animals increases the chances of another Coronavirus transmission.

The only solution, if there is one, is for the governments to breed and supply poultry and fish on a large scale. They are considered safe for human consumption and contact. Chicken and fish are capable of saving elephants and rhinos.  

Ravi

Corona Daily 437: The Exotic Horn

On 3 March, Do Thanh Son, a 38-year old Vietnamese was flying from Korea to Vietnam. He had flown on this route hundreds of times. When the pilot announced a change in route, Do Son couldn’t believe his ears. He asked the airhostess to confirm. Yes, she said. We have been asked to divert the plane to prevent the spread of the virus. Lots of new cases in Ho Chi Minh city, sir.

But, Can Tho airport is so far, Do complained. How will I get home? Will the airline send my luggage home?

Don’t worry, sir. The airline will make sure you are taken good care of.

Vietnam’s Can Tho airport is 180 km away from the busy Tan Son Nhat airport where the plane was supposed to land.

The changed airport was in the same country. Immigration and custom clearance would take place here, and then the airlines would decide how to send individual passengers onward/home.

At 0345 pm, Do Son’s suitcases were passing through the x-ray machine.

‘Please open that bag.’ Said the Customs officer.

Do Son flashed a smile. ‘Sorry, I can’t. I am carrying live Koi Fish sedated for the flight. If I open the bag, they will die.’

When the passenger can’t be persuaded to open the suitcase, Customs have to act as per the procedure. It took three hours before they gathered witnesses, officers ready with cameras, and paperwork complete. The opened suitcases revealed 11 rhinoceros horns, weighing nearly 30 kgs. The Custom officials promptly seized the horns, which weight-wise are more expensive than gold or cocaine. Do Thanh Son was sent on a two week quarantine as per the epidemic regulations.

*****  

Wildlife trafficking is a $20 billion business. Rhinos are killed for their horns. Over the past 40 years, the world’s rhino population has reduced by 90%. Today South Africa is home to 70% of the 27,000 rhinos left on earth. The horn of a rhinoceros is perhaps more exotic than elephant ivory, tiger penis and giraffe tail, the reason being its value in Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM).

For thousands of years, the Chinese have credited the rhino horn with curing everything from a headache to cancer, typhoid, arthritis, poisoning, warding off evil spirits, even depression. In China and Vietnam, ownership of a rhino horn is a status symbol for the super rich.  

*****

Organised criminal gangs deal in the international trade of rhino horns and other illegal wildlife. They are so cash rich, they bribe the border police, customs, judges and politicians. Had the Vietnamese citizen landed at the scheduled airport, he would have escaped with 30 kg of rhino horns with no sweat, because everyone at that airport was already bought.

On 23 March, South Africa went into a lockdown. Since then, every day there are multiple reports of rhino poaching. As to why the pandemic is terrible for wildlife I will discuss tomorrow.

Ravi

Corona Daily 438: Wild Bee Celebrations

On 20 May, UN celebrates World Bee Day. This year’s event Bee Engaged was virtual. Famous actors read poems dedicated to bees. Bee lovers can watch them online. Not only the day, but this year has been a big source of joy and celebration. For the bees, of course. 

Why are bees so important? Because our survival depends on their survival.

Pollination is the process that transfers pollen from the male part of the plant to the female part of the plant. Just like in humans, seeds and fertilization require the union of a male and a female. Plants or crops can’t pollinate without external help. Bees, the hardest working creatures, are more efficient than wind, bats, birds and other insects; bees pollinate on a much bigger scale. Bees fertilise one third of the food we eat, and 80% of the flowering plants. Trees and woods are essential for filtering the air, and bees for pollinating to procure food for us. We studied this as children, and forgot it as adults.

But the bee population is declining rapidly. This rate of decline threatens to make bees, butterflies and bats extinct. Extinction rates are 100-1000 times higher due to human impact. Pollution, pesticides, intensive farming practices, climate change, even vehicle traffic destroy bees. Bees lose their sense of smell and get confused due to pollution. Bees come to pollinate, consume pesticides and die. Every year, North American vehicles kill 24 billion bees and wasps on roads.  

The absence of bees would wipe out not only broccoli, asparagus, cucumber, apricots, strawberries, but also apples, tomatoes, almonds, coffee and cocoa, crops that rely on the pollination of bees. In the event of bees’ extinction, fruits, nuts and vegetables would disappear from our plates. The resulting starchy diet of rice, corn and potatoes is very imbalanced.

*****

The worldwide lockdowns have done wonders for wildlife. The strait of Istanbul normally sees only oil tankers, now it is full of dolphins. Wild boars are wandering in the center of Haifa in Israel; large flocks of pink flamingos have arrived in Albania after its leather processing factories were shut, cougars are roaming the streets of Santiago, and Kashmiri goats are seen in Wales.

Wild bees are having the time of their life. Humans and vehicles have disappeared. In a world free of pollution, bees can make shorter and more profitable shopping trips, and that helps them grow their population, says Mark Brown, ecologist at the University of London.

In the UK, councils regularly maintain and level the grass outside public properties, roads, churches. Since March, this work has stopped. As a result, grass and flowers have grown everywhere, providing plenty of surprise food for the bees. A movement called ‘Don’t mow, let it grow’ has advocated this unsuccessfully for years. Coronavirus has finally forced the UK government’s hand.

If bees could pray, they would pray for lockdowns to last forever.

Ravi

Corona Daily 439: Ukraine Baby Boom

The story of the stranded newborns in Ukraine came to light because Biotexcom, a leading surrogate agency published a promotional video this month. The video showed dozens of infants crying in unison, and masked nannies murmuring soothing words for parents locked down abroad. The Ukrainian ART (assisted reproductive technology) agencies had never faced a situation where by the end of 2020 they may be nursing a thousand children separated from parents since birth.

In 2015, many Asian countries, including India banned commercial surrogacy. Since then, Ukraine, Europe’s poorest nation, became the most attractive destination. In the USA, where allowed, surrogacy costs $ 100,000-150,000. In Ukraine, the total package is up to $ 50,000. Many EU nations ban surrogacy. Ukraine has loose legislation, Ukrainian women are white, generally in good health, educated. The egg donating and surrogacy business are lucrative particularly for impoverished women from smaller cities or rural areas. In a job, she struggles to earn $ 300 a month, but surrogacy can give her $ 15,000.

Agencies like Biotexcom have a transparent price list. The surrogate mother is paid 14,000 Euros (20,000 if carrying twins) + 2000 Euros for food. For a second pregnancy, an additional 2000 Euros, and additional 3000 Euros for a third pregnancy. If she smokes during pregnancy, she is fined. She is also entitled to 1000 Euros for good behaviour.

Agencies don’t recruit women from Eastern Ukraine, a war zone, for fear of losing the foreign child along with the surrogate mother.

Biotexcom owns a hotel called Venice, where the arriving foreign parents stay until the paperwork is over. Before the lockdown, 16 couples had successfully landed in Kiev. They are now with their babies, but can’t leave the country.

No child can leave the country without a valid passport. This is where things get complicated. Each country has different laws. Spain insists the surrogate child gets citizenship of the country where it is born. German laws define a mother as one who has delivered the child. In one prolonged case, a German court forced the parents to get the name of the Ukrainian surrogate mother on the certificate. Later with her consent, the German mother had to adopt her daughter. The German court had called it child trafficking, since Germans were smuggling a child born to a foreign woman in a foreign country. USA and many other nations insist on a DNA test to establish the genetic connection. Sometimes an embryo mix-up happens, and DNA test shows the absence of any common genes. The USA state department warns that such children are likely to be stateless. They can’t be taken out of Ukraine.

Some readers asked what would happen, God forbid, if the Argentinean couple (from yesterday’s story) falls victim to Covid-19. The father, after all, is a doctor in intensive care. In that situation, I am afraid, the child will become an orphan and the Ukrainian state will have to take care of him. The state will probably sue the agency, and claim compensation.

The human rights Ombudsman has now raised this issue in the Ukrainian parliament. The Catholic Bishops, after watching the Biotexcom video, called it an online store for little ones, with no-show from the customers.

Ravi