Friday, May 15, 2020

Corona Daily 450: The Intelligent Senator


Late evening on Wed. 13 May, Richard Burr, a Senior USA senator, heard the doorbell ring. Even senators get startled by a doorbell these days. He opened the door to find FBI agents outside. They carried a warrant to confiscate his i-phone. A seasoned politician, Burr handed it over. What he didn’t know was that his i-cloud information was already under investigation.

Richard Burr has been the Chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee since 2015. In that capacity, he has access to classified information. In February, he was receiving daily briefings on the Coronavirus. On 7 February, he wrote an op-ed comforting the American public that the USA was better prepared than ever before.

On 12 February, two events happened. Burr received another classified briefing from health experts, explaining the gravity of the crisis. The same day, the US stock market reached its peak.

On 13 February, Burr and his wife, in 33 different transactions, sold up to 1.7 million $ worth of stock. They got rid of all their hospitality shares. On the same day, coincidentally, Burr’s brother-in-law also sold a major portion of his stockholding.

Kelly Loeffler from Georgia is one of the richest senators. She and her husband sold up to 3.1 million $ worth of stock. Her husband is the Chairman of the New York Stock exchange.

On 24 February, the stock markets began to collapse, and went down 32%. Burr saved at least half a million $ through his “timely” actions. Burr said his stock selling was based on knowledge available in the public domain, nothing to do with classified information. (Why didn’t smart fund managers use this public domain information in as timely a manner)?

Loeffler said her actions showed not corruption, but transparency.
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Obama’s administration had introduced the STOCK act to prevent exactly such insider trading. The need was so obvious that the “Stop Trading On Congressional Knowledge (STOCK) act, 2012” was passed by the senators 96-3. Richard Burr was one of the three opposing senators.
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Is this one of the reasons why we, the public, receive information too late? Politicians with structural access to classified information get early warnings. They spend some time in securing their self-interest first. Then allow a couple of weeks for corrupt actions to cool down. The privileged information known to Burr and Loeffler was relayed to the general public a month later.
*****

Kelly Loeffler says she and her husband have never used any confidential information. However, in order to avoid the distraction, they decided to sell all their individual stocks.

Richard Burr maintains his innocence. However, on 14 May, he resigned from his powerful post as Chairman of the Senate intelligence committee.

Ravi

Thursday, May 14, 2020

Corona Daily 451: The Doctor’s Dilemma: Part Final


Yesterday, I talked about the worldwide rationing of masks, tests, protective gears, ICU beds, ventilators, medicines. (Vaccines when they appear will also need to be rationed.) As the numbers shoot up, the health care fraternity is increasingly forced to make life-death decisions.

In their paperFair allocation of medical resources in the time of Covid-19”, bio-ethicist Dr Ezekiel Emanuel and his colleagues make important recommendations. This medico-ethical framework is well worth considering for any hospital in any country.

Saving lives and saving years of life: Assuming life expectancy to be 80, saving one 20-year old is more utilitarian than saving two 60-year olds. The two older patients will lose 20 years each, whereas the younger patient will live another 60 years if saved. Hospitals should decide the balance between lives and life-years and consistently apply it.

(Of course, this approach can’t take into account the economic or mental quality of the patient’s life. If that young 20-year old has a miserable life, he may have another 60 years of misery. Such considerations are beyond the scope of ethics in medicine.-R.)

Doctors, nurses top priority: Medical front line workers and first responders (ambulance) fighting covid-19 should get top priority irrespective of their age or condition. A single doctor or nurse saved may save another hundreds or thousands of lives. The paper calls it their instrumental value. Similarly, if there is a vaccine developer, saving her before others is critical. Besides being fair, this strategy boosts the morale of the medical staff.

Triage officers and lottery: The paper opposes a first-come-first-served policy by pointing out several shortcomings. If prognosis is similar across patients, random selection or lottery is suggested. Wealth or fame should not be considered. (The Trumps and Johnsons of this world will anyway manage on their own). The system should be transparent – patients should be informed about the rules in advance.

Removing a patient from the ICU or ventilator to make space for another is ethical; it is not killing, and doesn’t require a patient’s consent.

A key suggestion is to appoint a neutral triage medical officer or a committee, to take these decisions. Making life-death choices for patients they are treating would traumatize the doctors. (Unfortunately, front-line doctors are reportedly making those decisions in many countries, including Italy).  

Priorities differ for vaccines: Health workers remain at the front of the queue for vaccines. Older people can be prioritized next.  Though a younger person may be first given a ventilator (curative), a vaccine in shortage (preventive) should be given to old people first.

Don’t distinguish between Covid-19 patients and others: The health care system that is strained by Covid-19 is either refusing to entertain other patients, or other patients are reluctant to visit labs and hospitals. Several pregnant women are delivering at homes, despite the inherent risks. The paper suggests applying the triage rules equally for Covid-19 and non-Covid-19 patients. The lives of patients suffering from other diseases are as valuable as those inflicted with covid-19.

Ravi

Wednesday, May 13, 2020

Corona Daily 452: The Doctor’s Dilemma: Part II


Hospitals are now overwhelmed. They have to let some patients die, so others may live. Most shortages are chronic. For example, more ventilators can be produced, but they need respiratory therapists and trained nurses to operate them. The therapists and nurses work in three shifts. Frontline soldiers in this war, they must remain healthy through the pandemic. Manpower is a serious limiting factor for ventilator use.

For patients and relatives, denial of access to intensive care or withdrawal of ventilator support can be traumatic. In the USA, law and lawyers are more developed than health care. Hospitals implement the health departments’ triage guidelines to protect themselves from future lawsuits.

New York Times (31 March) studied the health-care rationing strategies of ten states. I offer here the highlights from that article.

State of New York doesn’t admit people who may die despite treatment to the ICU. Patients with cardiac arrest not responding to defibrillation, or with brain injury or severe burns are excluded. Patients on ventilators are assessed every 48 and 120 hours. Ventilator support is continued only in case of improvement. If a patient’s condition worsens, the ventilator is removed.

Alabama denies ventilator support to AIDS patients, severe cases of mental retardation and children with severe neurological problems.

Washington can refuse ICU access to severe failures of the heart, lung, liver or multi-organ. Patients on the ventilator are checked once a day. If improved, they are moved out of the ICU. If the condition becomes worse, the ventilator is taken off, and end-of-life care is offered to free up space. This policy has been criticized, because in many cases the condition becomes worse before improving. Days or weeks of ventilator support can bring a patient back to life. (Boris Johnson).

Louisiana denies the ICU to patients with severe dementia.

Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scores patients based on the functioning of heart, lungs, kidneys, liver, blood and brain. (Here low scores are better, high scores bad). Maryland disqualifies people with higher SOFA scores. Pregnant women with a healthy foetus get a one-point credit in Maryland, two-point credit in Pennsylvania and one-or-two in Utah depending on how advanced the pregnancy is.

Between “Patient A, age 24, with a SOFA score of 13”, and “patient B, age 72, with a SOFA of 10 and mild Alzheimer’s”, Maryland will treat the older patient because he has a lower SOFA. But in Pennsylvania, moderate Alzheimer’s penalizes him, and the younger patient gets precedence.

Besides Alzheimer’s Pennsylvania is harsh on cancer patients with less than 10 years of expected survival. Premature infants with low chance of survival qualify for neither ICU nor ventilator. Pennsylvania offers one credit point to health workers.

USA’s federal civil rights office has started investigating discrimination based on disabilities, race, age or religion. Measures such as SOFA are criticized as they discriminate against the black and poor. Because of low health care access, their health is normally poorer. Currently, disproportionate numbers of blacks are dying of covid-19 in New York.
*****

In March, a group of ten MD/PhDs from across the world has published an excellent paper on this subject. I will discuss their recommendations tomorrow.

Ravi

Tuesday, May 12, 2020

Corona Daily 453: The Doctor’s Dilemma: Part I


In The Doctor’s Dilemma, a wonderful play by George Bernard Shaw, a renowned doctor Sir Colenso develops a new vaccine for tuberculosis. With a severe shortage of resources, the doctor can save only one patient. A young woman begs him to save her ailing husband. And an older man, a friend of Sir Colenso’s is also in need of the vaccine. This friend is an ordinary but good-natured man. Whereas the younger patient is a talented artist, but is a womanizer, a person without morals. In the long play, and longer preface (typical of Shaw), Shaw discusses the moral issue doctors face at times: who should live and who should die?
*****

Corona virus has opened up hundreds of such issues. Do governments have a right to lockdown people? And if so, for how long? Should privacy be sacrificed in the name of safety? Should we download the contact-tracing app that records our every move? Why do people hoard toilet paper? Is it right to charge higher prices for products in shortage? Is it moral for a government to stop all public transport? To close schools and lock children indoors?  Is it ethical to let online workers earn their living, without supporting the off-line workers who have lost their jobs and paychecks? Is it fair to let people in prisons be infected, as they invariably will be? Vaccines must be tested on animals extensively before humans. The urgency to develop a vaccine is tempting pharma companies and regulators to short-circuit that. Can that be ethical?  

Moral governments and ethical rulers (the few left now) ask themselves these questions, and decide their strategies accordingly.

Medical issues are the most discussed ones. What Shaw wrote is harsh reality today. In Europe, in America, and soon probably in India and most African countries.
*****

Triage is the process of deciding the priority among patients for treatment. In mass casualty incidents, such as the collision of two buses, paramedics and doctors urgently need to decide who should be treated first and why. Triage is common in wars where the injured and dying far outnumber the doctors and medicines available.

Most developed countries have triage protocols in place. Based on them, even in the USA, patients are now refused admission into ICUs. In many cases, in order to care for a newly arrived patient, someone else’s ventilator is removed. Patients are given colour codes (blue, red, yellow and green) to specify the treatment they will or will not receive.

Imagine six patients arriving at your hospital:  a 35 year old white man, a 57 year old black woman, a 45 year old with AIDS, a healthy and wealthy 81 year old man, an 11 year old Asian girl, and Tom Hanks. All of them require a ventilator – you have only one. While you are making your decision, a heavily pregnant woman arrives outside the ICU.

Who do you put on the ventilator?

Tomorrow, I will discuss the existing protocols that answer this question.

Ravi

Monday, May 11, 2020

Corona Daily 454: Flying to Nowhere


Forty year old Edgard Zeibat, a German, was flying from Vietnam to Turkey on 18 March. He had to transit through Delhi. On landing in Delhi, he learnt his Delhi-Istanbul flight was cancelled. Most other connections were rapidly cancelled. The airport was emptying quickly.

Edgard was not the only one. Authorities contacted the embassies of all stranded passengers. They were given airport meals, toothpaste, and to their surprise, a mosquito net. In four days time, India’s stringent lockdown began. All flights stopped. Edgard’s companions gradually disappeared. Now it was just him.

India allows visa-on-arrival. And this was a crisis time. India’s lockdown couldn’t be Edgard’s fault. He presented his passport at the visa on arrival counter.

‘Sorry Sir,’ the man checked the screen and said, ‘we can’t give you a visa.’

The German embassy had confirmed Edgard was a wanted criminal, with several cases of assault and other crimes against him. The embassy couldn’t take his custody without proper extradition procedures in place. Indian laws prevent giving known foreign criminals a visa. Edgard Zeibat has been a resident of the Delhi airport transit area for more than 50 days now.
*****

The longest transit lounge stay record belongs to one Mehran Karimi Nasseri. He was an Iranian who said his mother was a British nurse. His briefcase with documents was stolen, and he found himself inside the Charles de Gaulle airport in August 1988. He called himself Sir Alfred, and insisted he should be sent to Britain. He lived in Terminal One for 18 years. A corner with a red bench became his residence. His years were spent in reading newspapers, eating meals given by the airport staff or the passengers. He even studied economics. Mehran Nasseri was the inspiration for Spielberg’s well known film ‘the Terminal’.
*****

More recently, we have the case of Edward Snowden. In 2013, he spent 39 days at Moscow’s Sheremetyevo airport transit hall. He ended up taking asylum in Russia, where he still stays.
In the 1990s, when I lived in Russia, I would regularly see Sri Lankan refugees living at the same airport. They arrived on an Aeroflot flight from Colombo, destroyed their documents on the flight, and asked for asylum. The Russian government didn’t entertain these requests, but allowed the transit fliers to reside at the airport for long periods. I have no idea what happened to them in the end.
*****

Edgard Zeibat’s case is a complicated one. India will not accept him as a refugee. Extradition to Germany requires complex procedures and co-operation from Zeibat. Now that the case is published, India can’t send him to another country. Herr Zeibat seems destined for years of stay at the Delhi airport. It is modern, air-conditioned, with clean showers, a variety of restaurants, TVs, Wifi, and comfortable recliners.

Only if he indulges in criminal activities or falls ill with Covid-19, India will be entitled to do the sensible thing and transfer him to a prison or a hospital.

The story of the no-flyer has only begun.

Ravi

Sunday, May 10, 2020

Corona Daily 455: Let’s Keep Fighting


On Friday, 8 May, a UN resolution was expected to usher in a new era.
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Antonio Gutteress, the UN secretary general, had proposed a global ceasefire on 23 March. The pandemic is expected to last between two and three years. While it lasts, let us focus on this common enemy by stopping all wars and conflicts.  The fury of the virus illustrates the folly of war’, he said.

Surprisingly, many armed groups supported the truce proposal. By early April, fighters in twelve countries shelved their arms. They included a communist guerrilla group in Philippines, liberation armies in Columbia and Sudan. (South Sudan, the world’s newest nation, has 12 million people and 4 ventilators.) A Saudi Arabia-led coalition and the Houthi rebels declared ceasefire for two weeks.  Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen jointly appealed for a halt to all fighting in the Middle East. Currently 310 million children in the conflict zones are deprived of school meals, their main source of nutrition, due to school closures.

On 30 March, 53 countries issued a letter supporting the Global Ceasefire proposal. France was the only nuclear nation to sign it. Encouraged by the letter, Antonio Gutteress reissued an appeal on 3 April.
*****

Friday marked the 75th anniversary of the end of WWII. The five victors- USA, China, Russia, UK and France formed an exclusive nuclear club. They also gave themselves veto, a power as dangerous as nuclear weapons. Thanks to that power, USA and UK allowed apartheid to continue in South Africa for 44 years, Israel’s land grabbing is protected by the USA, and Russia vetoes resolutions against Assad. These five countries are authorized to invade, slaughter, carry out genocide and nuclear-bomb nations with such impunity that the UN charter doesn’t even allow a resolution condemning them.

The Global Ceasefire proposal, therefore, needed the support of the big bullies.  
*****

The USA (read Trump) initially insisted the resolution must include ‘Wuhan virus’ in the text. It was duly rejected. After four weeks of virtual talks and several drafts, USA asked to remove references to the World Health Organisation. In this election year, WHO is Trump’s enemy no. 2. WHO has failed to confirm, as Trump would like them to, that the virus originated in a Chinese lab.

China and Russia said they would veto if references to WHO are excluded.

France, along with Tunisia, is the sponsor of this resolution. France persisted and developed a compromise. Reaching a compromise through international Zoom meetings is not easy. On Thursday, the final draft included the wording ‘UN specialized health agencies’. The Chinese and Russians approved it, since in their mind they read this as WHO. The negotiating Americans found the wording acceptable because WHO was not mentioned. Late evening on 7 May, Americans approved the final draft. On Friday, it would be placed before the Security Council for a vote, simply a technicality.
*****

On Friday, 8 May, USA used its veto power and blocked the resolution. It said “UN specialized health agencies was an indirect reference to WHO".

WWII continues to haunt us.

Ravi

Saturday, May 9, 2020

Corona Daily 456: The Journey Home


Dhan, Nirlesh, Buddharaj, Rabendra, Dharmendra and Pradeep were siblings or cousins, all belonging to the Singh Gond family. The family hailed from Umaria in India’s state of Madhya Pradesh. Aged 22 to 35, they were all married, and four of them had children. With frequent droughts, large families can no longer survive on farming. The young men had bribed a middleman to get themselves a job in SRJ Steels at Jalna. Jalna is about a 1000 km from Umaria. Returning home once a year, the Sing Gond cousins had become part of India’s 40 million circular migrants.

They worked at the steel factory, but not for it. The steel factory avoided employing them to stay clear of all labour laws. A contractor paid each of them a daily wage of Rs 450 (6 $). Twenty of them rented a room, and tried to save something to send to their families regularly.

On 24 March, India announced a lockdown for three weeks. The next day the steel factory closed, and the daily wages stopped. On 1 April, the slum landlord demanded rent. The lockdown became chronic, only changing the end-date every time. The cousins kept assuring their wives they would return home. There was nothing to do in Jalna.

All trains and buses had stopped plying. The media was full of horror stories of migrants walking for miles on India’s highways in the blistering April heat.

Umaria was 1000 km away, and the Singh Gond cousins, though fit and young, wouldn’t contemplate walking that distance.

In May, the government announced special trains for labourers. The train from Aurangabad would take them to their village. And Aurangabad was 60 km away. Buddharaj, the only tech-savvy cousin, tried to apply for e-passes. But there was no response.

Their contractor disappeared, both his phones disconnected. That is when the Singh Gond cousins and their co-villagers decided they had had enough. If they must live without jobs and money, they were better off being with their families. On Thursday, 7 May, they called their families to give the good news.
*****

Twenty of them started walking on the railway tracks and covered 40 km in the night. Why rail tracks? You can’t lose your way, if you go the way the train goes. Living on survival food for a month, they didn’t realize how exhausting the journey could be. At three in the morning, they decided to take a nap. Aurangabad was another 20 km away. They would get up in the morning, and walk the rest. Well in time to catch the train. They slept on the wooden planks between the rail tracks. There was no chance of a train coming. No trains had run for more than six weeks.
*****

They never woke up. An empty goods train ran on the same track at 05.15 that morning. Three of the group had slept away from the tracks. They survived to tell the story. 17 died. 

India’s Prime minister tweeted his anguish- in English. BBC and CNN reported their deaths. The states offered Rs 1.5 million ($ 20000) compensation. On 8 May, their lifeless limbs were taken to their villages – by the same train they had tried so hard to catch.

Ravi

Friday, May 8, 2020

Corona Daily 457: Prisons Change People


New York’s governor Cuomo objects to the term ‘shelter-in-place’ used by some American states. That term implies a shooter on a rampage. Cuomo prefers to give ‘stay-at-home’ orders. Without caring for semantics, most of the world uses the word ‘lockdown’. Lockdown is part of prison vocabulary. Currently, nearly 4 billion people, half of the world, is locked down, essentially held prisoners.

True, this is house arrest, or home confinement, a milder form. Some countries use smart phones to tag and monitor people - mandatory in China, anonymously aggregated in Belgium, and voluntary in South Korea.

In a sense, our confinement is worse than the traditional prisoner’s. We have been punished without a trial for no crime of ours. We have been confined without an end date, our term indefinite. Inmates are fed by the State in prison. Here, we have to fend for ourselves, try and get enough supplies for our families. The mask is a constant reminder of our situation.
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Yesterday, I wrote about a Russian billionaire who committed suicide because he was unable to cope with the situation. It is useful to know the research that studies the way prisons change people. I will mention a few highlights.

It is shown the most damaging factor for prisoners is the loss of their life in the outside world, rather than the prison conditions. When first-time prisoners start their sentence, life becomes sedentary; they stop physical exercise, sit or lie in bed for more than 9 hours a day, don’t know what to do with the hours-time passes very slowly. The first month is marked by a preoccupation with safety, a sense of losing freedom and control, feeling of uncertainty, separation and loss. They can easily give up drinking and smoking. All other worries are so overwhelming in their mind they don’t miss sex. But they miss physical human warmth. (Hugging, kissing, handholding).

The process of adapting is called ‘prisonisation’. That process is filled with chronic stress and sleep disturbance. It can affect certain brain functions, such as planning, attention, working memory. After three months of imprisonment, there may be significant deterioration in self-control and attention.

Longer imprisonment may lead to emotional withdrawal, depression, suicidal thoughts or actions, increasing hostility, delusions, panic, madness, phobias, substance abuse and self-destructive behavior. A long imprisonment alters the prisoner for ever. As one ex-prisoner said: “I act like I’m still in prison, I mean you are not a light switch or a water faucet. You can’t just turn something off. When you’ve done something for a certain amount of time, it becomes part of you.”
*****

Worldwide governments need to take lessons from this, and ensure the confinement doesn’t become too long. In order to save the vulnerable, we don’t want nations becoming mental asylums.

And as individuals, we should be aware of such studies, so that we can avoid the pitfalls of confinement.

Ravi

Thursday, May 7, 2020

Corona Daily 458: The Russian Oligarch


Dmitry Bosov’s estate lies in an area known as Rublyovka, a 40 minute drive from the Kremlin. These forests were popular hunting grounds with the Russian Tsars. Every ruler from Lenin, Stalin to Putin has had his official residence here. Rublyovka is a billionaires’ ghetto. Some of the world’s costliest houses are located here. When the oligarchs shop at the Barvikha luxury village, purchases include not just Prada and Gucci, but also a Bentley or a Maserati.

Dmitry Bosov, 52, is among the Russian $-billionaires. His house stands on a 5-hectare (50,000 sq meters) plot. The gigantic place has a gated, camera-observed driveway, leading to a spacious car park. The house is surrounded by grassy lawns, swimming pools, a spa, a Russian sauna, gardens, mature trees, thick hedges, a fitness center and an ice hockey ground. In May, with spring gradually journeying towards summer, the surroundings are fresh and lively. Bosov lives a short walk from President Putin’s dacha. In 2016, he sponsored a hockey league in which Putin and he played together.
*****

This year, the start of the Moscow lockdown coincided with Bosov’s birthday. A coal baron, he had to cancel his grand birthday celebrations.

Like any Russian oligarch, Bosov has conflicts in business and family, problems with booze and insomnia, but he has had them for the past thirty years. In January this year, he bought a multi-million mansion in Beverly Hills, for an occasional change of weather. But now he can’t travel to California, not even in his private jet. Coal prices are falling. But his biggest concern as he discussed with friends is that the pandemic will cause such poverty in Russia that the poor will revolt.

In the 1917 revolution, it was not just the Tsar’s family that was assassinated. Several aristocrats were killed, and each bedroom from their grand apartments was given to individual families to conceive the Soviet communal apartments. Worried, Bosov re-checked the CCTV cameras, the gates, and began carrying his pistol on his person. Last week, on 30 April, Russia’s Prime Minister Mishustin, whom Bosov knows well, tested positive. The Russian numbers have crossed 150,000, with 1500 dead. Every day 10,000 more cases are springing up.
*****

Yesterday, on 6 May, Katerina, Bosov’s wife, called him over the phone. When you live on a 5-hectare plot, you need phones to find your family. After several unsuccessful calls, she went to security and began checking the CCTV footage. It showed Bosov entering the fitness center in the night. Katerina and the guard rushed to it. The door, locked from inside, had to be forced open. Dmitry Bosov, the billionaire, was found dead on the floor, with a bullet in his head. His Glock 17 Gen 4 was lying next to him. No suicide note was found anywhere.
*****

It is likely thousands of super-poor will die in the pandemic. The case of the Russian oligarch shows it can claim some super-rich as well.

Ravi

Wednesday, May 6, 2020

Corona Daily 459: Professor Lockdown


On 5 May, 51-year old Professor Neil Ferguson, the UK’s most influential epidemiologist, scientist and architect of the UK lockdown resigned as a government advisor.

Prof Ferguson has more than twenty years of experience with pathogen outbreaks. His predictions have not always been accurate. In 2001, during the foot and mouth outbreak, he said 150,000 could die. Based on his advice, as a precaution, 6 million animals were slaughtered. In the end 200 people died. For his Foot and Mouth models, he was bestowed with the Order of the British Empire (OBE). During the 2002 Mad Cow outbreak, Ferguson feared up to 50,000 might die. 177 died. In the 2005 bird flu epidemic, Ferguson estimated 200 million could die. 282 died. In the 2009 Swine flu epidemic, he predicted 65,000 deaths. Final figure was 457. Epidemiology is not an exact science. Prof Ferguson has candidly said he doesn’t own a crystal ball. His track record was not the reason for his resignation.

Professor Ferguson is a deemed Patient Zero in Westminster. At 5 pm on March 17, he had a speech at 10 Downing Street. He greeted Boris Johnson and his cabinet (perhaps by shaking hands), gave his revolutionary speech and left. Next morning he woke up with a high fever and dry cough. On 19 March, he tested positive. On 26 March, PM Johnson, UK’s health secretary Hancock and Chief Medical Officer Whitty tested positive. By 30 March, half of the cabinet was infected. Johnson nearly died. But this suspicion of being the pioneer transmitter did not cause his resignation.

Before his revolutionary speech at Downing Street, UK had focused on ‘herd immunity’. Instead of suppression it relies on developing mass immunity by facing the music. Prof Ferguson singlehandedly changed it. He presented models which showed 510,000 British citizens could die, unless a strict lockdown is implemented. Not only did UK reverse its strategy, inspired by the Ferguson figures; France, USA and Germany went for strict lockdowns. PhDs from Oxford command worldwide respect. Based on the professor’s advice, Johnson addressed the nation on 30 March. He recommended the strictest lockdown. “You should not be meeting friends. If your friends ask you to meet, say no. You should not meet family members who don’t live in your home.” Aptly Neil Ferguson is nicknamed Professor Lockdown. He managed to put 66 million Brits under house arrest.

This week, the Telegraph revealed Prof Ferguson’s 38-year old lover has been visiting him secretly. Why can’t they live together, which is permissible under lockdown? They can’t. She lives with her husband and two children in another part of London. On 30 March, on BBC Today Prof Ferguson was telling the nation the criticality of a strict lockdown. Reportedly, when he was broadcasting, his lover was hiding in his bedroom.

The professor accepted he made an error of judgment. He deeply regretted undermining the clear social distancing message. He emphasized the government advice was unequivocal, it protects everyone. With that, he resigned.

Ravi