Corona Daily 466: American Couple at Sea

After much careful planning, Kent Frazer, 42, and his wife Rebecca, 35, were finally off to Japan. Kent worked for Intel and Rebecca for a health insurance company. Getting a whole week off is not easy in the USA. A combination of saved comp offs, working weekends and managing bosses had allowed them a 15 day luxury cruise around Asia. The cruise brochure called the Diamond Princess ‘a precious gemstone on the seas of the world, where day or night, it’s always an adventure.’  

The flight to Tokyo to board the cruise from Yokohama was a small price to pay for the sight that awaited them. The couple boarded on 20 Jan. The brochure was not lying. This was a giant ship, the length of three football fields. It had swimming pools, a track with laps for runners, a small golf course, the Churchill lounge full of leather chairs for cigar smokers, hot tubs, nightclubs, bars, a cinema theatre; Japanese, Chinese, American and Italian restaurants, crèches that allowed young parents some private time, game centers for children, concerts, comedians, magicians, casinos and art auctions. No matter what your age or family status was, you were in awe of the choice available. It was a shame some hours needed to be wasted in sleep. Live music played all the time. Eating was a special pleasure. Food was available twenty-four hours. The grand buffet included many French sounding dishes topped by Crème Brûlée that the American couple tasted for the first time.

On 25 Jan. when the ship landed at Hong Kong, Kent noticed a few passengers embarking the ship in masks. There was some talk of a virus in China. But here, on the ship, they were safe. The mask wearers soon left their masks unworn in the festive atmosphere on the ship. You take cruise ships to be among people. The Diamond Princess had a crew of 1045 - all young, and 2666 passengers, many of them pensioners. Kent and Rebecca were at ease with both groups. On any single day, each of them shook hundreds of hands.

In three days time we will be back in Oregon, said Rebecca to Kent, sighing. The cruise had been exceptional. The ship had visited Hong Kong, Vietnam, Taiwan, and on 3 February was heading back for Yokohama. The couple was drinking to the sunset on the upper deck, when on the intercom, they heard the captain’s voice: “Please be advised. Please be advised that we have been notified by the Hong Kong public-health authorities that a Hong Kong resident who travelled with us for five days, and disembarked in Hong Kong on Jan. 25^th, has tested positive for Corona virus on Feb 1^st, six days after leaving the vessel.”

Kent and Rebecca looked at each other, and raised eyebrows. Why is the captain bothering to tell us this? (To be continued…)

Ravi

Corona Daily 467: Pentagon Orders and Japanese Hotels

One way to check if Covid-19 death numbers are under-reported is to ask how many people would have died if there was no virus. Actuarial scientists specialize in death projections, however morbid that may sound. Deaths may have seasonal variations and trends, but from year to year, the numbers are predictable.

Last month, if 6000 people were expected to die in your city, but 10,000 died, it is fair to attribute the number of excess deaths to the virus. If your government is reporting 2000 covid-19 deaths, they are probably underreporting by 50%. In its inimitable style, The Economist tracks these numbers for eleven regions on a daily basis.

Jakarta leads in the suppression of numbers. Its cemetery department records 2,800 burials a month. In March, it reported 4,400, an excess of 1,600. Jakarta’s official covid-19 toll is 84, only 5%. Turkey’s Erdogan assures the nation everything is fine, and describes how he eats a spoonful of mulberry molasses every morning to boost his immunity. Istanbul’s figures cover only 45% of the excess deaths.

Some argue that most Covid-19 victims, due to age or condition, would have died in the near future anyway. May not be true. One study in Italy calculated that among the victims men lost 14 years of life, and women 12 years (the YLL concept).

*****

Several other ways of cross-checking. One is to look at body bags. Pentagon has a specified standard: green nylon 94-inch by 38-inch bags. It maintains a rolling stock of 50,000 to wrap up the various people American soldiers kill across the world. Pentagon has now ordered 100,000 additional body bags for civilian use.

Mopec is the leading American company dealing with autopsy and pathology supplies. They confirm stocks of body bags are depleted. Despite adding more employees and multiple shifts, body bag manufactures in the USA are reporting backlogs of six months or longer. They are rapidly running out of fabric and zippers. Canada’s Ministry of Health has asked funeral homes to use ‘a leak-proof body bag’ marked with ‘infectious risk-handle with care’ in big letters.

*****

Japan is a country of the old; it sells far more adult diapers than baby diapers. Naturally, death is a big business in Japan. The Japanese funeral industry was booming even before the virus. They have drive-through funerals, and also corpse hotels (Itai Hoteru). With long queues for cremations, the dead Japanese rest in well-equipped hotel rooms, sometimes for days, before their turn comes.

Now those calculations are disrupted, because of the risk of infection. A well-known Japanese comedian Ken Shimura, 70, died of Covid-19. His brother said his body went straight to the crematorium, without the family getting a chance to say goodbye.

Funeral directors in Japan are toying with ideas such as live-streaming funerals using GoPro cameras, and cashless payments PayPay.

*****

Body bags, coffins, cemeteries give clues as to how lethal this virus is. In India, where Hindus are cremated, one has to look for other clues. In rural India, a farmer can be cremated in his field, and his death may not be recorded anywhere.

Ravi

Corona Daily 468: With a Pinch of Salt

Are the numbers of infected and dead that we check every morning overstated or understated?

First, let me confirm both Johns Hopkins and Worldometer are doing their job professionally. They are independent, the staff competent and hard working, the processes automated, data transparent (both mention sources, Hopkins includes raw data). They cover the world as best as they can.

We must remember, though, there is a human being at the other end. A Mafiosi killing could be mistaken for a Covid-19 death. A patient dying alone at home may not go reported. It may simply be a typo.

The number of total cases is not the total number of infected. Testing is low. Thousands currently under house arrest may be positive if tested. This figure is certainly understated.

Reporting recovery in cases is not mandatory anywhere. People recovering in hospitals routinely go home with nobody closing the case. (Closed cases= recovered + dead). This number is grossly understated, giving a ridiculously high (19%) mortality percent in closed cases.

Deaths are the figure we believe in. There is something definitive about death. Little space for doubt, you would think. But that is not so. With resource constraints, autopsies are rarely performed. Covid-19 cases are classified into three categories: Suspect, Probable and confirmed. Suspect are those dying with Covid-like symptoms but no tests. Probable are those without tests but were in contact with someone who tested positive. Confirmed are those who tested positive. The USA allowed probable cases to be included along with confirmed cases as late as April 14.

Add to that the jolts researchers receive. On 17 April, China reported 1290 Feb/March deaths from Wuhan with retrospective effect. A day earlier New York City reported a decrease of 145 deaths. On 3 April, the French ministry reported 17,827 additional cases and 532 additional deaths from nursing homes. They had forgotten about nursing homes. With few resources, the solitary researcher somehow makes the necessary adjustments.

There is always a time lag. A doctor diagnoses a case. He submits the report to the local health department. The health department must enter the data in the computer. Most of them don’t work weekends. (A seasoned statistician knows why Monday is the most fatal day). That data then travels to the state ministry and finally to the federal ministry where it is aggregated. The ministry then sends it to WHO.

The new cases or new deaths that your TV reported this morning may have happened any time during the last four weeks.

Finally, for a global effort, the researcher must know the numbering conventions. The number 9,876,543.21 (comma: UK, US) looks like 9.876.543,21 (full stop in most of Europe), 98,76,543.21 (India, two spaces), 9’876’543.21 (apostrophe: Switzerland) and 987,6543.21 (Mandarin, four spaces). India counts in lakh (100,000) and crore (10 million). An inexperienced researcher can easily kill ten times more or fewer Indians.

*****

In short, we need another cross-check to answer the question. I will do that tomorrow by discussing the notion of ‘excess mortality’.

Ravi

Corona Daily 469: Story of a Dashboard

With 1.2 billion hits a day, the Johns Hopkins Covid-19 dashboard is anxiously looked at in ordinary houses as well as the White House. When a pandemic begins, who commissions such a daily count? Who called the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) with this request?

*****

In December 2019, Frank, a first year PhD student at JHU was studying the spread of measles. He and his guide Lauren Gardner were thinking of putting the measles hotspots on the map. Gardner’s team studies population mobility and behavior (such as whether people are obeying or breaking social distancing) to assess the transmission risk. Based on that, the team builds mathematical models to predict disease hotspots.

While working on measles, Frank heard of the Pneumonia virus outbreak in Wuhan. China had started generating daily statistics. Why not translate that data into an interactive visual map, thought Frank. He began to work on the spur of the moment, and the map was created that same night.   

At the time, it was meant as a China dashboard. In the first few weeks, Frank referred to the numbers as those inside China and those outside. One day, he noticed the non-China numbers were bigger, the World map was redder.

On 22 Jan. the dashboard was made available online for other researchers. (Why would anybody outside the academic world want to look at a virus dashboard?) Frank published an academic paper on his dashboard on 19 Feb.

Then suddenly life began to change. It is a researcher’s fantasy to get 1000 online visitors for his academic product. It’s his dream to get his paper cited 2-3 times in the first few months.

Frank’s dashboard paper was cited 80 times in the first month. The Dashboard went viral logarithmically. The visitor count was in millions. The team needed to be expanded to five people. They moved to the conference room to maintain social distancing. Manual input of data became unsustainable. Automated web-scraping and aggregation were introduced to have real-time numbers. The team was working 24 hours, and their data was ahead of even the WHO, except once when a researcher overslept. While they were still in a state of shock, their daily hits reached 1.2 billion.

*****

Nobody commissioned the dashboard. We wrongly assume the world to be well organized. In most matters, no system exists. You and I can start creating such a dashboard, or our own analysis.

One reason why this particular dashboard happened was Frank. Chinese students studying in the USA adopt English names for the convenience of Westerners. Frank’s real name is Ensheng Dong. His family lives in China, he has several friends in Wuhan. If not for the personal bond, it’s unlikely this dashboard would be born.

Ravi

Corona Daily 470: In Numbers We Trust

At the time of writing this piece, the Johns Hopkins University Dashboard gives a global figure of 2,822,003 infected and 197,578 dead. Worldometer numbers are 2,846,575/197,859. Were these organizations appointed by the WHO or a similar world body? How are they getting their data from across the world? Should we blindly trust the numbers?

*****

In academic papers, you often refer to work by other authors (citation). A research scholar’s responsibility is not limited to giving the source, but also judging its credibility. The best scientific journals will not publish your paper unless it is peer-reviewed. Such scrutiny is essential for validating any paper.

This is about building a chain of trust. You can quote a fact from a reliable source, not otherwise. In private life, we have friends whose objectivity and rationality we trust. We don’t hesitate to believe them, or to pass on the information they give us. We also have friends whose word we would like to verify or simply ignore. It depends on the reputation each of them has built over their lifetime.  Conspiracy theorists are capable of seeing conspiracies everywhere.

If A trusts B, B trusts C and C trusts D, then information can pass through this chain reliably. The strength of the trust community is the strength of its least trustworthy source.

*****

In a pandemic situation, government sources are critical. Systems allow them to collect as well as aggregate the data. If death certificates are the proof of the pudding, hospitals or crematoriums are usually obliged to give the data to a government health body.

The trustworthiness of media is a matter of experience and choice of the researcher. The rightist Economist and the leftist Guardian stand at opposite sides of the spectrum. Their opinions and agendas may be different, but both can be equally trustworthy. They have a long history, strong editorial boards, wide global network of journalists and a reputation for objective reporting. Most writers of The Economist remain anonymous (no byline) and the charter prevents any shareholder from acquiring majority shares. Such measures build the credibility of the source.

I read, (not watch), BBC and CNN. Based on my experience, I will not hesitate to refer to BBC. But I will cross-check with several sources before quoting CNN.

*****

The Johns Hopkins dashboard is getting more than a billion hits a day. Before trusting the numbers issued there, or on the Worldometer site, shouldn’t you audit their process, the methodology, and the sources? By scrutinizing deeper and deeper? To be honest, few people have time to waste on this even during lockdown. In that case, you can outsource the audit to a researcher. Tomorrow, I will talk about the Johns Hopkins dashboard.

Ravi

Corona Daily 471: Give a Code Word to the Pharmacy

Many female victims of domestic violence are now unable to contact the police who are busy enforcing the lockdown. Injured women are afraid to visit hospitals for fear of catching the virus. They can’t run to their parents’ house, because parents belong to the vulnerable group.

One Palestinian woman says lockdown is hell; quarantine is hell, because it means living 24/7 with someone who can end your life. Psychological abuse has graduated to physical abuse. Frustrated males obsessed with power and control have now moved, like a cancer, to the fourth stage.

Help lines are ringing everywhere. One American husband threatened to throw his wife out of the house if she coughed. In Pennsylvania, a girlfriend of an immuno-compromised man hid his sanitizer and soap. Many Afghani women are not allowed to have phones. (If she can’t see or talk to anyone without her husband’s permission, what’s the point in having a phone?) If an Afghani woman is beaten, even in normal times, she needs two credible witnesses to prove it, and the process can last more than a year. In Mumbai, with the house help gone, irritated men are expected to contribute to domestic chores. That makes some of them violent.

Denmark has created temporary shelters. France, where DV has surged 30%, allows victims to stay in a hotel room at the government’s expense.

Calling a helpline in the presence of the violent husband is dangerous. In Spain, those women can go to a pharmacy and use the code: MASK 19. The pharmacist alerts the police.

USA has a 999 silent call service. If you call 999 and can’t talk, press 5 two times, and the police act on it. In the UK, victims are recommended to pass on notes to shop assistants, postal workers, or delivery drivers. They may be the only contact point for a woman/child who is afraid to talk.

*****

Several lessons I can think of:

Corona virus highlights the world’s defects and their scale.

No such thing as a developed or undeveloped country. Domestic violence shows all nations are uncivilized. Human nature is essentially mean.

People go to work to earn, and children to school for education. More importantly, workplace and school double up as shelters to hide from torture at home.

Norway, Finland, Iceland are among the best countries for women. Their density is low, and several people live on their own.

Maybe living alone is the only way to avoid domestic violence.

Ravi

Corona Daily 472: A Private Pandemic

If he beats you, he loves you. (Бьет – значит любит): A Russian proverb

With more than half of the world’s population locked down, the crime rate has reduced drastically. But one particular crime, domestic violence, has shot up dramatically – in every country of the world.

Take the case of Japan. After the lockdown started, Kazuo Makino, 59, a Tokyo resident, killed his wife at home. An unemployed Japanese from Saitama killed his 85-year old mother, because he could no longer take care of her. An 18-year old woman from Fukushima killed her 9-month old son. A 22-year old Aichi woman killed her son born just nine days ago. Chieko Yoshida, 45, from Kuji killed her husband. The list is long.

*****

Domestic violence is one of the most under-reported crimes. Mainly it takes the form of the man in the family beating his wife or children. Historically, this was accepted as a man’s birthright. In ancient Rome, a father could legally kill his child. In many cultures, fathers could sell their children as slaves or sacrifice them in rituals.

A 2014 report says one in every three women in the world has been beaten, coerced into sex or abused in some fashion- usually by someone she knows. Rape in marriage was raised as an issue fairly recently. Demanding sex, even wife-assaults, has been the prerogative of a man. One Bulgarian husband was tried for severely beating his wife. The judge asked him if he understood what he had done, and would he please apologise, the man said, ‘but she is my wife’.

Children are spanked even today. Several studies have shown that children who are spanked begin to accept domestic violence as an acceptable custom. Many of them in their adult life beat their wives and children.

Tajikistan has an accepted family custom, where the mother-in-law rags and tortures the newly arrived daughter-in-law. The same way she was herself tormented after her wedding. Very similar to ragging traditions in boys’ hostels.

Russia is a 100% literate nation. An average Russian man drinks a bottle of vodka each week. One in four Russian families experience domestic violence. As recently as 2017, the Russian parliament almost unanimously passed a law decriminalizing domestic violence. A Russian man can now legally beat his wife or children, as long as they don’t land up in hospital with multiple fractures. Also, it should not be repetitive. The pass to truly thrash his family can be used once every year. The Russian govt said family conflicts should not be confused with domestic violence.

The Russian Orthodox Church, an enthusiastic supporter of child spanking, said, ‘The reasonable and loving use of physical punishment is an essential part of the rights given to parents by God Himself.’

*****

If this is the state of affairs in a literate country, you can imagine what happens in illiterate nations. More on this subject tomorrow.

Ravi

Corona Daily 473: Hotels with Heart

Out of long habit, John was about to say ‘cigarette please’ before he saw all of them were in uniform. The lady handed over a mask and the policemen asked him to wear it. Then some liquid was poured on his palms. ‘Rub it and come with us, mate’, said the police.

This was a particularly bad month. Australian beggars were going out of business. John was struggling to get his daily needs. And now they had come to take him to jail. But neither homelessness nor begging was a crime in Perth. And John was given a mask, not handcuffs.

The police van stopped outside a tall building named ‘Pan Pacific Perth’. The team entered the lobby of the luxury hotel with John. After noting down his full name and other details, the receptionist handed him a plastic key. ‘Sir, this boy will show you to your room.’ The policemen said ‘good luck’ and ‘behave yourself’ to him.

‘What’s this whole thing about?’ John growled. Nobody had ever called him sir.

‘Sir, this is a govt initiative. Called ‘hotels with heart’. The homeless in Perth are given rooms in our five-star hotel.’ The bellboy in a mask quickly showed the room and disappeared.

John’s room had a scenic view of the Swan River. Without looking at it, John grabbed the green apple from the centre table. Finishing it in seconds, he put the remaining apples in his dirty rucksack. When he climbed into bed, he sank in. He struggled to get out. The bed was horrible; he would sleep on the floor.

From the rucksack, he took out his collection of cigarettes. Each cigarette he smoked tasted different. He sat on the floor, and began smoking. Suddenly a high pitched siren rang. This was followed by two people storming into his room.

‘It’s the fire alarm. You can’t smoke, sir. Smoking not allowed.’ John quickly put the stub off. The siren and the room invasion had terrified him.

He went to the fridge. It was empty. The room was getting cold, and dark. John tried several switches, but nothing worked. (The bellboy hadn’t bothered to tell him that the plastic key needed to be inserted in a slot for any switches to work).

John checked all the drawers. Except a copy of the Holy bible, there was nothing. He looked at the small bottles in the bathroom. Didn’t seem like he could drink any of them. He put them in the rucksack anyway. Hurriedly, he left the room, walked the staircase down. Fortunately, the man at the reception was busy on the phone.

John ran out, and kept running, until he reached one of his favorite spots near Saint Mary’s Cathedral. The weather was wonderful, a clear blue sky above him. He was happy to have escaped that awful place. He rummaged through the bag, and found the syringe. This was his time to inject himself. Then he lay down on the pavement.

The drug began its effect. John was finally at home.

*****

P.s. This is not a piece of fiction. This article from The Economist (12 April 2020) will tell you about the homeless people accommodated in hotels in different countries.

Ravi

Corona Daily 474: A Wedding in Melbourne

My Catholic friend, T, and I grew up in the same building in Bombay. Later, he migrated to New Zealand. His family grew and dispersed internationally. One of his daughters, D, and her English boyfriend live in Melbourne. Their long planned wedding was set for the 27 March this year, in a Melbourne church.

A small Indian wedding may have more than one hundred guests, and this was an international wedding. The bride’s large family arrived from Auckland in the middle of March. As they were checking into the hotel, T got a call from the church. The Australian government had started closing all non-essential services.

‘But the wedding service is essential’, said T.

‘Yes, yes. We are trying to convince them we are doing God’s work. But I want you to know we can allow a maximum of forty people.’

The family spent a worried night, making lists, and striking out names. On the wedding day, some close family members would need to stay back at the hotel. 

Good news arrived the following day. India had cancelled all outgoing flights. All Indian guests dropped, with T’s conscience clear. This arithmetic happiness lasted briefly. The church called and put the maximum attendees at twenty.

Fortunately, the same evening, flights from the UK were cancelled. With his family and the best man stuck in London, the English groom would be alone at his wedding.

The same evening, the hotel asked the wedding party to vacate.

‘We can’t do that. See how many rooms we have booked, including a bridal suite.’

‘That’s right. You can stay on, but we won’t be able to provide any service. You will need to clean the rooms, and cook for yourself. Our staff is not allowed to enter.’

Meanwhile, a phone call confirmed the bride’s trousseau and groom’s three-piece suit couldn’t be delivered. The shop was shut. You will get them in April or May, the caller said.

The church called next to say they were not sure the wedding would happen. But they were keeping an eye on the developments. You will need to be flexible, they told T.

On Friday 20 March, when Australia closed all borders, T called the church. We are ok to bring forward the wedding to tomorrow, he said.

We don’t work on the weekends, the clerk from the church said.

On Monday morning, 23 March, D was multi-tasking, cooking and vacuum cleaning. T called her. ‘We have to rush’, he said. ‘The church has just said we can have the wedding today at 11.00’. D removed her apron, and began looking for something decent to wear at her own wedding.

*****

At the church’s entrance, D’s sisters went in first. The clerk stopped D. We can’t allow any more people, he said.

‘I am the bride’, D said.

‘You don’t look like one’, the man thought, but let her in anyway.

The elderly pastor kept his social distance from everyone. He was technology-agnostic; otherwise he could have Zoomed in for the service. He made sure the family members stood in different corners of the church. He then welcomed everyone to the celebration. Vows and rings were exchanged.

I forgot to ask T if the couple removed their masks to kiss.

The wedding party rushed from the church to the hotel and then to the airport. They were told one last flight would leave for Auckland that evening. They made it.

‘Thank God, the wedding happened as planned’. Said T’s wife on the flight.

‘More or less.’ Said T.

Ravi

Corona Daily 475: A Precedent is Set

The theory, not the practice, of Basic Income started five hundred years ago with Juan Vives’ book On Subsidies to the Poor (1526). Bertrand Russell argued in its favour one hundred years ago. Milton Friedman proposed negative taxation, where below a certain income level, the government pays you. Tesla’s Elon Musk and FB founder Mark Zuckerburg have been enthusiastic about its implementation. Just before the pandemic, Andrew Yang, a US democrat, had made it the backbone of his campaign. And last week, the Pope called for a universal basic wage.

Why should something that has not happened for five hundred years happen now? Once this nightmare is over, wouldn’t it be business as usual? Isn’t public memory short?

Two reasons why the basic income reform may actually happen.  

*****

Public memory is short. But pandemics can be long. Their devastating impact can drive the world to change the ways in which it operates. A pandemic underlines the fact that the health of a society depends on the health of the most vulnerable.

After Black Death, the 14^th century plague pandemic, public health was institutionalized and made a state responsibility. All wars were temporarily abandoned. (Currently, no news on Syria, Brexit, Kashmir, Ukraine etc). Viruses have checked imperialist projects. Napoleon’s transatlantic ambitions were halted by a yellow fever epidemic in today’s Haiti. His eastern ambitions were thwarted by dysentery and typhus.

Covid-19 pandemic, if it continues for two years, will be equivalent to a World War in terms of the resultant economic devastation. The Second World War, though a man-made event, gave birth to several reforms. Decolonisation was one of its biggest gifts. Global institutions such as the United Nations and International Court of Justice; and UK’s NHS - free health care for all, were all products of the Second World War.

A prolonged pandemic is likely to halt wars for a few years. But like the WWII, it may trigger reforms that could not happen in normal times.

*****

The second reason is the actions that have started. The USA has legislated a cash transfer of 1200 $ to people below a certain earning level. Another proposal to give 2000 $ for six months is under consideration. The UK govt has promised to pay 80% of salaries under certain conditions. Spain will start a basic income scheme for its poorest. The longer these rescue acts continue, the more difficult it becomes to withdraw them. Any HR manager will tell you that reducing somebody’s package is simply not done. These countries will need to have a rationale for stopping such direct transfers. They will also need to explain how they are funding the stimulus packages.

In a few months, poorer nations will be obliged to borrow, and institute similar basic income schemes for their citizens. Lockdowns will lose all meaning if starvation and bankruptcies kill the people saved from the virus.

*****

A precedent has been set. It can be binding in the future.

Ravi