Corona Daily 485: No Lockdown in Sweden and Japan

Those in lockdown envy those without. The world is full of science-defiers and covid-90 skeptics who are egging their governments on to lift lockdowns and return to business as usual. My Indian friends point out Sweden (9000 infected/800 dead) and Japan (5500/100) as models India should emulate.

*****

Sweden is a small country. The virus is capable of killing more Indians than the entire population of Sweden (10 million). Second, the population density of Sweden is 60 people/sq mile, India’s is more than 1000. Mumbai has 80,000 people per sq mile and Dharavi, a giant Mumbai slum has 800,000 per sq mile.

If you have sixty people residing in a square mile, social distancing is not difficult. (In the strictest curfew time in Mumbai, I am sure sixty/sq mile will be found on the road.) Swedes have been isolating themselves for years. No 70-plus Swede lives with anybody younger.

If Sweden were to close schools, 25% of the doctors and nurses wouldn’t be able to report to work. Or grandparents would have to babysit those kids and increase the risk of infection. Sweden already has a shortage of medical personnel. They have weighed those factors and opted for a no-lockdown.

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In Japan, salaried suits are still crowding the trains. Restaurants are open. Legoland Japan welcomes visitors. Why is there no lockdown?

Because Japan’s laws don’t allow Shinzo Abe to declare a lockdown. He can’t close any city, transport, schools, or even private events. The anti-influenza laws allow him to request, not order. And if the request is ignored, there is no penalty. (Compare with the latest from Singapore: If you meet a person you are not living with, you are liable to six months jail or 7000 USD or both).

Abe has done what the law allows. He has declared an emergency in Tokyo and six other prefectures. But the emergency can in no way hamper personal liberty. The Japanese legislation is so strict due to the abuse of emergency powers during the WWII. The pre-war Meiji constitution could have imposed a lockdown, not any more. The Samurai DNA possibly makes the Japanese more afraid of breaking the law than contracting the virus. The Japanese strategy may turn out to be hara-kiri.

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All countries are suffering. But each country’s strategy is based on its individual circumstances. You can’t simply copy-paste them.  

Ravi

Corona Daily 486: Wrong Time

We have known M’s family for a long time. She lives in Mumbai with her daughter, and her husband works out of Delhi. He visits Mumbai every weekend.

Now with the lockdown, he has been stuck in Delhi for three weeks.

The Indian lockdown has completely paralyzed public transport. No flights, no railways. Only trucks carrying vegetables and other foodstuff can move on the highways. Even in Mumbai, you can’t move from the South to the North.

‘I will take the first flight once the flights begin.’ M’s husband assured M every time they spoke over the phone. He continued working online in his rented Delhi flat.

Last Sunday, M called him. The phone didn’t answer. Must be resting on Sunday, she thought. Although what is the difference now between Sunday and other days? She left a WhatsApp message asking him to call back. When he hadn’t called by evening, she called his friends. They knew as much as she knew, and they were in Bombay.

The family realized they had his phone and Delhi address, nothing else. They knew nobody in Delhi, not even his landlord. Calling the police can be frustrating, and they didn’t know which police to call and what the complaint should be. An MP (Member of Parliament) was a friend of M’s brother. The MP moved wheels, literally. He made the Delhi police go to the address and break open the flat.

M’s husband was found dead. The presumed cause was cardiac arrest. In current times, nobody thinks of an autopsy. The MP then booked an ambulance and made it carry the dead man to Bombay. M’s family went to the crematorium, where they had to hurriedly cremate the man soon after the ambulance arrived.

I didn’t ask about the suitability of an ambulance to carry a body for 1000 miles in this April heat. I didn’t want to know the answer.

What would have happened if the family didn’t know an MP? What if the medical staff had suspected this man was a Covid-19 victim? Would the ambulance then carry him?

*****

The lesson is for those who live alone or are trapped somewhere alone. Give your families or friends the phone numbers of your neighbors, colleagues, and landlords.

If any of your family or friends is trapped somewhere alone, make sure you have ways to contact their neighbors.

In current times, living alone is bad enough. Dying alone is a catastrophe.

Ravi

Corona Daily 487: Who is Next in Line?

Boris Johnson, virus-bitten, is in the ICU. So who is in charge of the UK now? UK has no written constitution. Dominic Raab has been appointed as Johnson’s stand-in (not to be confused with stand-up). He is remembered as the Brexit secretary who didn’t know Dover was an important port for the UK trade. His current approval rating is minus 17. He is young and not infected. Though a stand-in, Raab can’t attend weekly meetings with the queen, and can’t write an action plan (letter of last resort) in the event UK along with its PM is wiped out in a nuclear attack. This letter- writing is a privilege of every new PM.

Raab now runs a Zoom cabinet that includes among others Michael Gove (in self-isolation because of an infected family member); Matt Hancock, health secretary who tested positive; chief advisor Dominic Cummings, infected and isolated; Lee Cain, communications director with symptoms; and advisor Eddie Lister, 70, a high-risk member.

Besides managing the Pandemic in the UK, Raab’s Zoom cabinet will negotiate Brexit further with the EU’s negotiator, Michel Barnier, who fell ill with Covid-19 three weeks ago.

*****

US Constitution has the most professional succession plan. As systematic as for the British throne. Eighteen members queue up in case anything happens to the President. Vice President Pence replaces Trump, something America has waited for since 2017. If the virus sends them both to intensive care, Nancy Pelosi, the house speaker, will become the acting president. She is 80.

Unlike the UK, India has a written constitution, but no clear succession system in place. In the past, it was easy - hereditary rules applied. When Indira Gandhi was assassinated, her son Rajeev promptly became the PM. Bachelor Modi rules out that option. India’s home minister is the likely substitute, but Narendra Modi is the fittest member of the cabinet, so this is theoretical.

*****

In France and Italy, the Senate’s president becomes the acting president.

In Chinese language, the word succession doesn’t exist.

Russia has a monocracy. As per Russia’s constitution, the Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin will replace Putin if Putin were to be incapacitated. But replacing Putin is a fantasy, because that man is irreplaceable, virus or no virus.

Ravi

Corona Daily 488: Is Pandemic Force Majeure?

Every businessman knows Force Majeure as the clause that relieves a party from certain contractual obligations during events such as earthquakes or floods. Non-business people also sign agreements all the time, sometimes without realizing it. Will your gym extend your membership? Will your French holiday be refunded? Will your insurance company hide behind Force Majeure and not pay Covid-19 deaths? (Fortunately, Life Insurance Council of India has confirmed all insurance companies in India must pay Covid-19 deaths, without applying Force Majeure).

It is naïve to think Common law will protect us because of the pandemic. Force Majeure is not a creature of law, but of individual agreements.

Agreement: First thing is to check the FM clause in your agreements. Does it include an epidemic, or a catchall phrase such as ‘any other event beyond the reasonable control of the party?’ Existence of the clause doesn’t automatically protect you. The pandemic must have actually affected your ability to perform. E.g. our internet provider, phone company, Netflix are not (yet) affected.

Mitigation: You need to show you have made attempts to find alternatives. With office and traffic shut, your employees are working from home. Your Chinese supplier couldn’t supply, but you have found a Malaysian supplier.

Notification: You must notify the other party of your inability. If the other party notifies you, you must respond quickly. UN Sale of Goods contracts require a notice within reasonable time. Create as much documentation as possible. Talk to the other party, and ideally renegotiate the contract.

Certification: If possible, demand from your government such a certificate. Since 27 February, China has issued a record number of ‘Certificates of Force Majeure’. In international trade, that will protect several Chinese companies.

Doctrine of frustration: Where the purpose of contract becomes impossible, the doctrine of frustration may apply. If a couple booked a wedding hall that was shut by the lockdown, the purpose is frustrated. In such a case, the agreement will be void (and the court is likely to ask the hall management to return the deposit to the couple). 

While the pandemic is on, some sympathy and flexibility will be shown. After the pandemic, courts everywhere will engage in millions of cases, where the force majeure clause and the parties’ subsequent actions will be closely scrutinized.

Ravi

Useful reading: One (Global)/ Two (US and China)/ Three and Four (USA)/ Five (UK)/ Six (UN)

Corona Daily 489: The Only Sport Tournament in March

Just one major international sport event took place this March. “Candidates” is the most important chess tournament that happens every two years. Eight best players in the world battle for three weeks to decide the challenger to the World Champion. The tournament was scheduled to open on 16 March and close on 4 April in Yekaterinburg, Russia.

As luck would have it, two of the eight players were Chinese. A month before the tournament, Russia banned entry for Chinese citizens. FIDE, the international chess body, governed by Russians, managed to issue ‘humanitarian’ visas to the Chinese delegates. On arrival, Ding Liren, the leading Chinese player, and his team were taken to an isolated cottage outside Moscow and quarantined for two weeks. A great way to prepare for the tournament.

On 6 March, Teimour Radjabov, the Azerbaijani grandmaster told FIDE it was wrong to hold the tournament in the current climate. FIDE said legally and practically they could not postpone the event. FIDE tweeted Radjabov was withdrawing for personal reasons, and replaced him with a French grandmaster.

On 16 March, the grand opening ceremony was attended by 5000 spectators, but the players were absent for safety reasons. They were replaced by specially made dolls shaking hands with one another. On the previous day, the Russian sports ministry had ordered cancellation of all sports events in Russia. Fide tweeted the decree would not affect this event. The FIDE president had received assurances the event was safe and could go ahead. (FIDE president was Putin’s assistant, and a deputy PM before turning to the chess body).

The tournament began with no spectators allowed. Ian Nepomniatchtchi, a Russian player, fondly called Nepo because nobody can pronounce his surname, was leading. He was playing fantastic chess. But after the fourth round, he started coughing, and feeling feverish. It is not known whether his moves or his cough were more intimidating for the opponents.

Nepo tested negative. But the Russian government announced closure of international flights in 48 hours. Getting trapped in freezing Yekaterinburg is not an idea any grandmaster cherishes, even when that is a route to becoming a world champion. Everyone rushed to the airports to board the last flights. The tournament was postponed to an undisclosed date in the future.

Radjabov, who had seen the game a few moves ahead, now wants to sue FIDE. He will have to wait for some courts to open somewhere.

Ravi

Corona Daily 490: The Miracle of Our Existence

We are rattled because this is our first experience with a pandemic of this scale. But the world we inhabit has seen many. Throughout history, nothing has killed more humans than viruses, bacteria and parasites. More soldiers have died of infectious diseases than in actual combat.

In the 6^th century, the plague of Justinian killed 50 million people, half of the earth’s population at that time. It started in Egypt and travelled to Constantinople, where at its peak it was killing 10,000 people a day.  

The black death of the 14^th century possibly killed up to 200 million people. The source of both these plagues was infected rats. Each plague killed nearly half of Europe’s population. After the Black Death, Europe needed 200 years to replenish the human loss.

Spanish flu was the last pandemic before penicillin was invented in 1928. Spanish flu lasted a full three years (1918-20) and killed 50 million people. That flu infected every third person on the planet. The estimated economic cost of that pandemic was 4 trillion USD.

Smallpox killed 300 million in the 20^th century alone. In one of its outbreaks, my grandmother lost two siblings, became deaf and mute at the age of six, and was left with a spotted, scarred face for life. Smallpox was devastating. We have seen how easily viruses can enter royal palaces. Smallpox was particularly anti-monarchist. It killed Queen Mary II of England, Emperor Joseph I of Austria, King Luis I of Spain, Tsar Peter II of Russia, Queen Ulrika Elenora of Sweden, and King Louis XV of France.

In 1980, WHO announced the eradication of Smallpox. Despite requests to destroy them, its virus samples are still preserved in labs at Koltsovo (Russia) and Atlanta (USA). An evil politician, in theory, can turn them into a bio-weapon.

*****

The remarkable news is that despite a calamitous history, each of us managed to come into existence. In the last 100,000 years and more, not a single ancestor of any of us died in infancy or childhood (or we wouldn’t be born). With a lengthy list of pandemics, wars, famines, natural disasters and high child mortality, we must count that as a statistical miracle.

Ravi

Corona Daily 491: Son et Lumière

Narendra Modi addressing the nation is a much publicized event. Publicized by the man himself. A billion patriots and a handful of others watch it with anxiety and excitement. The empty streets become emptier. Will he announce the end of the lockdown? Start distributing the funds he cares about? Will special trains run for the migrants? Is he going to present a roadmap to bring India out of the Corona juggernaut?

You can’t ask these questions to a TV screen. Or to a hologram. Narendra Modi is a monologue artist. He is speaking all the time, everywhere. On the radio, TV, in stadiums, in New York gardens. Everywhere he speaks alone. Absolutely alone. He is the only world leader never to have held a press conference. (Sorry, he and Kim Jong-un. Two of them.)

But then, PM Modi is immensely popular. Irreplaceable. Strong. You need a wide-angle lens to capture his chest in one frame. Also smart. Always offering innovative solutions. The solutions may have nothing to do with the problems, but they are fresh and dramatic.

‘Friends, on Sunday at 9 pm,’ he says ‘switch off all the lights.’ (If you have electricity, he forgets to add.) ‘Sunday 9 pm, switch off all the lights, and then light candles for nine minutes.’ Because India is an illiterate nation, he repeats his message a few times, and then two hundred channels show it one hundred thousand times for reinforcement.

On Sunday, 5 April, at 9 pm, 1.3 billion Indians will light candles for nine minutes. What a comprehensive remedy for an unprecedented crisis. It’s like wages for three months. Like free food distribution. Like an anti-viral vaccine.

On Sunday, many Indians may not be able to have dinner, but they will have candlelight.

Ravi

Corona Daily 492: Guns Vs Butter

United States of America is the most secure nation in the world. Americans are best protected against any nuclear threat. America has the best missile defence system. It can destroy an incoming a-bomb before it lands. Not only that, USA has the highest number of state-of-the-art warheads, a total of 6800.

But they are terribly short of ventilators.

A ventilator costs between 16,000-40,000 USD. A hospital can get a really top-end ventilator for USD 50,000. USA has less than one ventilator per 2000 Americans. The New York governor urgently needs 30,000 ventilators, hoping to save hundreds of thousands of lives. But he has only 4000 ventilators.

In 2019, USA spent 33.6 billion USD on nuclear weapons. (=672,000 ventilators). Even when unused, bombs need to be regularly refurbished, and that is expensive. Refurbishing the B61 nuclear bomb will cost them 9 billion USD. America’s nuclear budget for the next ten years is 500 billion USD. (=10 million ventilators). Ten million ventilators would take care not only of the USA, but the entire world.

The nuclear club (USA, Russia, China, France and UK) rules the world with its all-powerful nuclear arsenal and veto power in the United Nations. They can attack any country with impunity, and defend themselves against any weapons. But as of 2 April; a tiny, invisible virus has infected more than half a million and killed 18,000 of their citizens.

The citizens of India and Pakistan are very proud of their nuclear tag. Both nations have ambitious nuclear programmes and budgets to develop and acquire sophisticated technology and arms. India has 40,000 ventilators for 1.37 billion and Pakistan 2200 ventilators for 220 million.

Corona virus will deserve our big thanks if it can take us towards a nuclear-free and health-secure world.

Ravi

Corona Daily 493: The Speeding Bus

A big bus carrying a diverse set of passengers was speeding on a highway. The passengers were having a wonderful time, singing songs and cracking jokes. Suddenly there was a crashing sound – the bus had overturned.

The survivors came to in a large hospital. The visiting doctor had been doing his rounds every day, and had been doing so for the two weeks since the crash. By now every patient had regained consciousness. The patients started getting restive.

‘Doctor, how long will I lie like this? The only thing I am watching is the cracks in the ceiling. This has never happened to me before.’

‘How did this happen? Two weeks ago, life was so wonderful. Why did this have to happen? I have so much work pending.’

‘This is so unfair. I was merely a passenger. And I have multiple fractures. Not fair.’

‘Doctor, you must give us some estimate. How much time will it take exactly before I can be home, and resume my normal life?’

Miraculously, the driver had survived the crash. He addressed the doctor. ‘I am worried about the bus.’ He said. ‘The bus must be repaired urgently, so that we can continue with our journey.’

The doctor looked sternly at the driver. ‘The bus is not going anywhere.’ He said. ‘I must first make sure you are all safe and recovering.’

Looking at the others, he said, ‘Listen. No point thinking about the bus crash. It has happened and can’t be undone. You are in a shock because you have never experienced a crash like this. It was so severe that every surviving passenger is in the hospital. Most of you have suffered multiple fractures. Some head and neck injuries, others have broken their back or spinal cord.

‘Let me tell you there are no short cuts here. Each crash is different, and each of you is different. I can only confirm you need patience. Lots of it. Enjoy the peace while you get it.’

‘Once you are back on your feet, and wish to continue your journey, remember a couple of things.’ He added. ‘If your driver can’t follow regulations or is reckless, replace him. And most importantly, monitor the speed of your bus. If it starts speeding again, there can always be another crash.'

Ravi  

Corona Daily 494: Patient 0

Have you heard of Wei Guixian? Probably not. But a hundred years from now, she may be part of history.

Wei Guixian is an ordinary 57 year old lady selling shrimps. Until last month, nobody except her family and fellow-sellers knew her. But now, the American newspapers have identified her as ‘Patient Zero’, the first patient to start the pandemic. The Chinese have not confirmed it, but we tend to believe the Americans more.

Scientists are always keen to find Patient Zero (or the Index Case). Genetic analysis can allow them to trace the infection back to the first person, particularly at the start of the epidemic. They can talk to that patient (if alive) to learn when, where and how the disease was contracted. Politicians are keen to find him/her to pin the blame on a certain State. And society is keen to find her so she can be stigmatized for the rest of her life.

Indeed, Mary Mallon, nicknamed ‘Typhoid Mary’ was a tragic case. A healthy carrier of Salmonella typhi, she was the reason for the Typhoid outbreak that infected 3000 New Yorkers. Mary was forced into quarantine, deported to North Brother Island for 26 years and died alone.

Between 2013-16, the Ebola epidemic had spread to ten countries including the US, UK and Italy, killing more than 11,000 people. The whole thing was apparently started by a 2-yearold boy from Guinea. Scientists went to his village, Meliandou, talked to the villagers, and took samples. The small boy was infected because he was playing in a hollow tree that had housed a colony of bats. The lesson is to keep an eye on your young children.

Why should the first patient be called Patient Zero? Gaetan Dugas, a Canadian flight purser, was identified as the first possible HIV patient. American scientists code-named him ‘patient-O’ (O standing for Out-of-California). That O was misunderstood as zero.

Ravi