Corona Daily 490: The Miracle of Our Existence

We are rattled because this is our first experience with a pandemic of this scale. But the world we inhabit has seen many. Throughout history, nothing has killed more humans than viruses, bacteria and parasites. More soldiers have died of infectious diseases than in actual combat.

In the 6^th century, the plague of Justinian killed 50 million people, half of the earth’s population at that time. It started in Egypt and travelled to Constantinople, where at its peak it was killing 10,000 people a day.  

The black death of the 14^th century possibly killed up to 200 million people. The source of both these plagues was infected rats. Each plague killed nearly half of Europe’s population. After the Black Death, Europe needed 200 years to replenish the human loss.

Spanish flu was the last pandemic before penicillin was invented in 1928. Spanish flu lasted a full three years (1918-20) and killed 50 million people. That flu infected every third person on the planet. The estimated economic cost of that pandemic was 4 trillion USD.

Smallpox killed 300 million in the 20^th century alone. In one of its outbreaks, my grandmother lost two siblings, became deaf and mute at the age of six, and was left with a spotted, scarred face for life. Smallpox was devastating. We have seen how easily viruses can enter royal palaces. Smallpox was particularly anti-monarchist. It killed Queen Mary II of England, Emperor Joseph I of Austria, King Luis I of Spain, Tsar Peter II of Russia, Queen Ulrika Elenora of Sweden, and King Louis XV of France.

In 1980, WHO announced the eradication of Smallpox. Despite requests to destroy them, its virus samples are still preserved in labs at Koltsovo (Russia) and Atlanta (USA). An evil politician, in theory, can turn them into a bio-weapon.

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The remarkable news is that despite a calamitous history, each of us managed to come into existence. In the last 100,000 years and more, not a single ancestor of any of us died in infancy or childhood (or we wouldn’t be born). With a lengthy list of pandemics, wars, famines, natural disasters and high child mortality, we must count that as a statistical miracle.

Ravi

Corona Daily 491: Son et Lumière

Narendra Modi addressing the nation is a much publicized event. Publicized by the man himself. A billion patriots and a handful of others watch it with anxiety and excitement. The empty streets become emptier. Will he announce the end of the lockdown? Start distributing the funds he cares about? Will special trains run for the migrants? Is he going to present a roadmap to bring India out of the Corona juggernaut?

You can’t ask these questions to a TV screen. Or to a hologram. Narendra Modi is a monologue artist. He is speaking all the time, everywhere. On the radio, TV, in stadiums, in New York gardens. Everywhere he speaks alone. Absolutely alone. He is the only world leader never to have held a press conference. (Sorry, he and Kim Jong-un. Two of them.)

But then, PM Modi is immensely popular. Irreplaceable. Strong. You need a wide-angle lens to capture his chest in one frame. Also smart. Always offering innovative solutions. The solutions may have nothing to do with the problems, but they are fresh and dramatic.

‘Friends, on Sunday at 9 pm,’ he says ‘switch off all the lights.’ (If you have electricity, he forgets to add.) ‘Sunday 9 pm, switch off all the lights, and then light candles for nine minutes.’ Because India is an illiterate nation, he repeats his message a few times, and then two hundred channels show it one hundred thousand times for reinforcement.

On Sunday, 5 April, at 9 pm, 1.3 billion Indians will light candles for nine minutes. What a comprehensive remedy for an unprecedented crisis. It’s like wages for three months. Like free food distribution. Like an anti-viral vaccine.

On Sunday, many Indians may not be able to have dinner, but they will have candlelight.

Ravi

Corona Daily 492: Guns Vs Butter

United States of America is the most secure nation in the world. Americans are best protected against any nuclear threat. America has the best missile defence system. It can destroy an incoming a-bomb before it lands. Not only that, USA has the highest number of state-of-the-art warheads, a total of 6800.

But they are terribly short of ventilators.

A ventilator costs between 16,000-40,000 USD. A hospital can get a really top-end ventilator for USD 50,000. USA has less than one ventilator per 2000 Americans. The New York governor urgently needs 30,000 ventilators, hoping to save hundreds of thousands of lives. But he has only 4000 ventilators.

In 2019, USA spent 33.6 billion USD on nuclear weapons. (=672,000 ventilators). Even when unused, bombs need to be regularly refurbished, and that is expensive. Refurbishing the B61 nuclear bomb will cost them 9 billion USD. America’s nuclear budget for the next ten years is 500 billion USD. (=10 million ventilators). Ten million ventilators would take care not only of the USA, but the entire world.

The nuclear club (USA, Russia, China, France and UK) rules the world with its all-powerful nuclear arsenal and veto power in the United Nations. They can attack any country with impunity, and defend themselves against any weapons. But as of 2 April; a tiny, invisible virus has infected more than half a million and killed 18,000 of their citizens.

The citizens of India and Pakistan are very proud of their nuclear tag. Both nations have ambitious nuclear programmes and budgets to develop and acquire sophisticated technology and arms. India has 40,000 ventilators for 1.37 billion and Pakistan 2200 ventilators for 220 million.

Corona virus will deserve our big thanks if it can take us towards a nuclear-free and health-secure world.

Ravi

Corona Daily 493: The Speeding Bus

A big bus carrying a diverse set of passengers was speeding on a highway. The passengers were having a wonderful time, singing songs and cracking jokes. Suddenly there was a crashing sound – the bus had overturned.

The survivors came to in a large hospital. The visiting doctor had been doing his rounds every day, and had been doing so for the two weeks since the crash. By now every patient had regained consciousness. The patients started getting restive.

‘Doctor, how long will I lie like this? The only thing I am watching is the cracks in the ceiling. This has never happened to me before.’

‘How did this happen? Two weeks ago, life was so wonderful. Why did this have to happen? I have so much work pending.’

‘This is so unfair. I was merely a passenger. And I have multiple fractures. Not fair.’

‘Doctor, you must give us some estimate. How much time will it take exactly before I can be home, and resume my normal life?’

Miraculously, the driver had survived the crash. He addressed the doctor. ‘I am worried about the bus.’ He said. ‘The bus must be repaired urgently, so that we can continue with our journey.’

The doctor looked sternly at the driver. ‘The bus is not going anywhere.’ He said. ‘I must first make sure you are all safe and recovering.’

Looking at the others, he said, ‘Listen. No point thinking about the bus crash. It has happened and can’t be undone. You are in a shock because you have never experienced a crash like this. It was so severe that every surviving passenger is in the hospital. Most of you have suffered multiple fractures. Some head and neck injuries, others have broken their back or spinal cord.

‘Let me tell you there are no short cuts here. Each crash is different, and each of you is different. I can only confirm you need patience. Lots of it. Enjoy the peace while you get it.’

‘Once you are back on your feet, and wish to continue your journey, remember a couple of things.’ He added. ‘If your driver can’t follow regulations or is reckless, replace him. And most importantly, monitor the speed of your bus. If it starts speeding again, there can always be another crash.'

Ravi  

Corona Daily 494: Patient 0

Have you heard of Wei Guixian? Probably not. But a hundred years from now, she may be part of history.

Wei Guixian is an ordinary 57 year old lady selling shrimps. Until last month, nobody except her family and fellow-sellers knew her. But now, the American newspapers have identified her as ‘Patient Zero’, the first patient to start the pandemic. The Chinese have not confirmed it, but we tend to believe the Americans more.

Scientists are always keen to find Patient Zero (or the Index Case). Genetic analysis can allow them to trace the infection back to the first person, particularly at the start of the epidemic. They can talk to that patient (if alive) to learn when, where and how the disease was contracted. Politicians are keen to find him/her to pin the blame on a certain State. And society is keen to find her so she can be stigmatized for the rest of her life.

Indeed, Mary Mallon, nicknamed ‘Typhoid Mary’ was a tragic case. A healthy carrier of Salmonella typhi, she was the reason for the Typhoid outbreak that infected 3000 New Yorkers. Mary was forced into quarantine, deported to North Brother Island for 26 years and died alone.

Between 2013-16, the Ebola epidemic had spread to ten countries including the US, UK and Italy, killing more than 11,000 people. The whole thing was apparently started by a 2-yearold boy from Guinea. Scientists went to his village, Meliandou, talked to the villagers, and took samples. The small boy was infected because he was playing in a hollow tree that had housed a colony of bats. The lesson is to keep an eye on your young children.

Why should the first patient be called Patient Zero? Gaetan Dugas, a Canadian flight purser, was identified as the first possible HIV patient. American scientists code-named him ‘patient-O’ (O standing for Out-of-California). That O was misunderstood as zero.

Ravi

Corona Daily 495: A virus by any other name…

Who names the viruses? - WHO names the viruses.

The current pathogen was initially called the “Wuhan Seafood market pneumonia virus”, not exactly a catchy name. On 11 Feb 2020, WHO stepped in to officially baptize it.

Covid-19 (Coronavirus disease-2019) is the name of the disease, not the virus. The virus is called SARS-CoV-2. (Like AIDS is a disease, but HIV a virus). Surprisingly, in the same breath, WHO said those who remember SARS may get frightened by its latest reincarnation. As a concession, it’s considered all right to refer to it as a virus causing Covid-19.

Before this, Swine flu had caused monumental confusion. Pigs were not a problem, it was contracted from birds. But worried by the name, Egyptian authorities culled more than 300,000 pigs, burying many alive. Since pigs disgust Jews, Israel proposed calling it ‘Mexican flu’, until the Mexican ambassador sternly objected.

Spanish flu, the greatest pandemic before the current one, didn’t start in Spain. After the First World War, Spain had the most liberal press and the courage to talk openly about the epidemic. As a result, Spain got the honour, though it could have originated in Britain, USA or China.  

In 1981, AIDS was called GRID (Gay-Related Immune Deficiency). This was both offensive as well as misleading. In Sept 1982, it was renamed AIDS.

In 2015, WHO issued virus-naming guidelines that disallow names of places or animals. No more Ebola (a river in Congo) or Middle East respiratory syndrome, or Mad Cow please. No matter how desperate Trump maybe to call it the ‘Chinese virus’.

Finally, calling it just Coronavirus is also imprecise. In all, this is the seventh Coronavirus. The first four are mild, flu-like. Fifth was SARS (2003), sixth MERS (2012) and now COVID-19, the seventh.

“Novel” is allowed as a prefix, recognizing this term will become obsolete, when a similar one appears in the future. SARS and MERS were also “novel” when they first appeared.

This is one area where the world could do without more novelties.

Ravi

Corona Daily 496: Dirty Money

Eating is necessary, shopping is a must to eat, and touching money usually necessary for shopping.

Banks in China and South Korea now use ultraviolet light to disinfect and sterilize banknotes, then seal them for 14 days before sending them back in circulation.

In places like Bombay, a banknote may be handled by hundreds or thousands before it reaches your hands. Banknotes and coins are ideal vehicles for Corona Virus.

Based on my research, and my own shopping experience, here is a guide to save ourselves from dirty money.

·       Contactless cards are of course the best, but not every country and not every shopper may have one. Smartphone transactions or cards with a pin are the next best option, but a street vendor may not be able to have access to one.

·       Before leaving the house for grocery shopping, arrange your money in denominations 10/20/50/100 and so on. Then wash your hands with soap. Try to give the exact amount where possible, to avoid getting any change.

·       If you know the seller well, and are a regular customer, ask him for his bank details, and transfer the money online. If he is not sophisticated, ask him to keep an account. Give him an advance for a week, or two weeks. That is a way to minimize transactions.

·       In countries like India, where coins are unimportant, refuse to take them. For example, if the seller wishes to give you a ten rupee coin, demand a ten rupee note instead.

Despite these precautions, it is safe to assume that the money you have handled is unsafe. The notes may have transmitted the virus to your hands. That by itself is not a problem.

The key is not to touch your face until the next hand wash. It’s curious how when we are told not to touch our face, we desperately want to rub our eyes, scratch our nose, adjust make-up, twirl our moustache, be polite and stifle a yawn with the hand. Covering the face with a mask or handkerchief may help. This is a lesser discussed benefit of a mask. Gloves don’t help, because if you touch your face with the gloved hand, the risk is the same.

Once shopping is over, wash hands and rub them with soap vigorously. For how long? In times of SARS, we were advised to finish the happy birthday song. For Corona, you should keep washing them until you complete singing your national anthem.

Ravi

Corona Daily 497: Small Numbers Big Numbers

Without context, some numbers appear to be very big.

As of 29 March 2020, nearly 32,000 people have died from Corona, making the monthly average around 16,000.

True this virus is a wanton globe traveler, capable of infecting an American beggar as well as a British prince. The deaths it causes are unnecessary and traumatic. Its prowess scares because none of us wants ourselves or our families to fall victims. Also the big unknown is the scale of the eventual collateral economic destruction and deaths. Having said that, the panic that the daily updates of figures creates is unwarranted. In this year of postponed Olympics, some people watch the Worldometer link as if it were the medals tally table.

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The current world population is 7.8 billion, including 5.8 billion above 15 years.

In 2019, more than 5 MILLION PEOPLE died EVERY MONTH. That figure included:

* 1.7 million dying from cardiovascular diseases (heart attacks, strokes),

* 900,000 from cancer

* 600,000 from respiratory diseases and infections (flu, pneumonia)

* 117,000 from road accidents.

Remember these are monthly figures. (The worldwide lockdown in fact has saved hundreds of thousands from dying on the road. No plane crashes either).

As per the deadliest estimates, Corona virus is capable of killing a 100 million people. (50% adult population infected worldwide, with 3.4% deaths).

With the current mortality rate of 16,000 a month, the global lockdown is a major victory so far. Even if the monthly rate climbs to 100,000 deaths, as it may, it will take the virus 84 years to kill a 100 million people. Viruses don’t last that long.

Lockdown, social distancing, slowing the monthly deaths, and flattening the curve as they call it, will allow the world to produce enough ventilators and a competent vaccine. In that sense, the current numbers are encouraging rather than the other way round.

Ravi

Corona Daily 498: Self-defeating prophecy

There are two kinds of prophecies: self-fulfilling and self-defeating.

A teenager studying for a competitive exam gets increasingly nervous. Only 2% get through, does he have a chance? It’s a vast syllabus, has he really covered it all? Despite studying diligently, on the eve of the exam he is convinced he knows very little. In the exam hall, he starts sweating. Panics after looking at the first question he knows nothing about. Forgets his formulae. And really manages to flunk the exam.

This is a self-fulfilling prophecy. The student’s excessive fear of failure really leads to his failing. Similar phenomena are observed in ulcer patients. Those who keep worrying about their stomach ulcers usually make them worse.

There is another boy, perhaps less bright than the first boy, studying for the same exam. He says 2% are better than 0%. As long as the passing percentage is more than zero, he must have a chance to get through. He is fearless, confident; in the exam hall he begins with what he knows best, and successfully passes the exam.

This is a self-defeating prophecy. We often see this in sport. Players with better nerves can outperform players more talented or skillful.

In the current situation, we must emulate the second boy. When people rebel against the worst predictions, and are confident they will not come true, they manage to defeat the predictions.

First and foremost, individually and collectively, we need to firmly believe this ordeal is going to end eventually. Only that confidence will bring the world back to normal one day.

Ravi

Corona Daily: 499: Buying an Extra Banana

Hunger is not a prerogative of the poor any longer.

The hospital canteen in a major Bombay hospital is seriously understaffed. The canteen focuses on catering to the patients. Doctors and nurses, some unable to leave the hospital, have sporadic access to food. Fortunately, volunteers in the neighbourhood now organize home food for them twice a day.

When we venture out for groceries, it’s a good idea to buy a little more than what we need for ourselves. An extra banana or apple, an extra sandwich, a pack of chips or a bottle of water. People in uniform working on the streets may have money in the pocket, but getting food or drink is not easy. A hot meal or drink is an unthinkable luxury.

On your way back from grocery shopping, if you see a policeman, a street cleaner, a security guard outside an ATM, offer him that extra fruit or sandwich or the drink. Your money has meaning if it starts fighting hunger. You don’t need to be a doctor any more to save lives.

This is not an act of charity. It is simply a token of our gratitude.

Ravi