Corona Daily 434: What’s Your Corona Risk Score?

Irrespective of numbers, many countries plan to slacken the lockdown in June. After ten weeks of confinement, millions will begin jogging, hugging (privately), shopping, attending schools, going to offices, flying. The epidemic is global, but the medical risk is individual. Our actions, or inactions, must be dictated by our individual risk. This article explains the factors that influence the risk. Tomorrow, I will give a mathematical formula.

We must first distinguish between (a) the risk of getting infected and (b) the risk of dying. The second event is contingent on the first. One cannot die of Covid-19 without getting infected. The best strategy to lower the risk is of course to not get infected. But if you are locked down in New York, London or Mumbai, that is nearly impossible. One piece of advice I w0uld offer to the super-rich afraid of Covid-19 is to buy quality protective gear, fly to Vietnam, Bhutan or Mongolia, and settle there till the pandemic ends. (Immunity immigration visa?) Syria's infections are few as well, but the survival rate in general can be low there.

Significant data is now available from China, USA and the UK. Six key factors define your individual risk. (a) Age (b) Sex (c) Race (d) Health conditions (e) Location (f) Profession.

Age: For those below 45, with no health condition, the risk is almost non-existent. After 65 the risk starts growing, after 80 it is significant, and after 90, very high. Declining immunity in old age contributes to this risk graph. This doesn’t mean every 80+ is in danger. Healthy 100 year olds can survive this infection, and indeed have.

Sex: Men are far more vulnerable. In China, the risk of men dying as compared to women is 1.65 times, in New York, 1.77 times. In general, women have a longer life expectancy. (It is said men are more fortunate than women. They marry later and die earlier).

Race: I was reluctant to include this. But in the USA and UK, the death of blacks is disproportionately larger to whites.

Health conditions (Comorbidities): A super-important factor. Heart disease, diabetes, asthma, high blood pressure, cancer all add to vulnerability. For a patient with two or three conditions, the risk skyrockets. UK scientists have added obesity to this list.

Location (post code):  Location was initially important for your government’s strategy. In a complete lockdown, the risk of getting infected was 1 out of 100,000. Under mitigation strategy (testing/tracing/isolation), it was 1 in 10. In ‘do nothing’ strategy, it is about 8/10. Lockdown fatigue may convert communities to ‘do nothing’. Zip Code 11369 in Queens, NYC has half its population officially infected. Newham and Brent in London have suffered the maximum deaths in the UK. Mumbai, my home town, is a hot spot.

Profession: Will you work online or offline? If offline, how many co-workers and customers you will come in contact with? The risk score of workers in care homes and hospitals rises dramatically.

Based on these factors, tomorrow’s article will offer a formula to calculate our individual risk score. Our strategy and behavior should be based on that score. 

Ravi

Corona Daily 435: Vaccine vs Vaccines

The world is waiting for a miracle vaccine to combat Coronavirus. Meanwhile 80 million children under one year of age are at risk of contracting deadly, vaccine-preventable diphtheria, measles and polio. The pandemic and lockdown have disrupted routine immunization programs.

The global vaccine initiative is the pride of human civilization. It has been hugely successful despite politicians. Since the World Health Assembly resolution in 1988, 10 million volunteers have administered 10 billion doses of polio vaccine alone. In rich countries, parents take appointments to take their children to clinics for inoculation. In India, a 1.4 billion nation, volunteers go door-to-door looking for children to vaccinate. In poor African countries, children are inoculated in communal settings, in the marketplace, in schools, in churches and mosques.

Polio, a paralyzing disease, has no cure, only a preventive vaccine. Some of my schoolmates have spent their entire life on crutches, simply because a few drops were not administered to them at the right time. In one of mankind’s most remarkable feats, polio has now been eradicated in all but three countries: Pakistan, Afghanistan and Nigeria. At the beginning of this year, Nigeria was on the verge of becoming polio-free. But once the pandemic began, Nigeria had to cancel immunizing 37.6 million children.

Africa has been affected the most. 80% of the flights that deliver vaccines and syringes to Africa were cancelled. Worldwide, health care workers were either locked down, or diverted to the Covid-19 patients. In countries where volunteers can move freely, they lack protective gear. Parents are worried about taking their children to the clinics. The flights in operation have doubled or trebled freight rates. UNICEF or other non-profit health organizations can’t afford those freights or charter flights.

In 2018, 86% of children under five were vaccinated with three doses of Diphtheria, Tetanus and Pretussis (DTP3), apart from polio and measles. Every young girl should receive HPV vaccine against cervical cancer. Most immunization programs now stand disrupted. Congo is currently fighting Ebola as well as measles. Last year 6000 died of measles. Measles epidemics are feared in the coming months in Congo, Benin, Niger, Tajikistan, Cambodia and Mongolia.

Next week, on 4 June, the Global Vaccine Summit will take place in London/online. Strategies will be presented to resume the immunization.

Every year, UNICEF sources 2.4 billion doses from 100 countries. India, the number one producer of vaccines, makes half of them. For the sake of African babies, India needs to take active steps to restart the export.

Internally, the Indian government needs to include immunization in the essential services and facilitate protective gear and transport for the volunteers.

India has so far allocated Rs 100 crore ($ 14 million) for Coronavirus vaccine development. India’s finance minister allocated a handsome Rs 13,343 crore ($ 2 billion) for 100% vaccination of its 530 million population of cattle, buffalos, sheep, goats and pigs. Let those initiatives not distract the government from catching up on the missed vaccinations for children.

Ravi

Corona Daily 436: The Wild Vicious Circle

Wild animals now face two dangers. One is from organized poaching criminal gangs. They sense the opportunities presented by the worldwide lockdown.

The African sanctuaries and national parks are shut. Safari tourism has ended. Police are busy dealing with Covid-19. Rangers are not paid their salaries. The biggest boon for the poachers is the absence of tourists. Each year, 70 million tourists visit Africa, generating nearly $200 billion, 8.5% of African GDP. Those tourists, along with their guide escorts unknowingly act as the guardian angels of these wild animals. Tourists are a much stronger deterrent for poachers than law enforcement.

Poaching gangs can now recruit poor people more easily. A starving ranger can make an excellent poacher. In places like the Okavango Delta lions, leopards, rhinos, elephants and cape buffalos are now at constant peril. Poaching gangs in Mozambique have started operations in South Africa’s Kruger national park. After a long time, Kenya reported their first elephant poaching for ivory in April. Poaching of elephants, rhinos and big cats is expected to rise further in Africa and Asia. A protracted pandemic will make the situation severe in South Africa, Botswana, Kenya, Namibia and Tanzania.

Cambodia has reported large scale deforestation caused by illegal logging (cutting of trees and stealing timber) and increase in the sale of bushmeat.

*****

That is the second big danger. Bushmeat is the term Africa uses for meat of wild animals used for food. Illegal African wildlife markets can sell the meat of Chimpanzees, monkeys, crocodiles, porcupines, pangolins, squirrels, bats, civets, mongoose, snakes, rats and many others. Elephant meat is a prized delicacy in central Africa. A typical forest elephant weighs 5000-6000 pounds and produces around 1000 pounds of edible meat. A poacher can earn $180 for the ivory, and $6000 for the meat. The average income in the Congo Basin, where elephants are poached, is $1 per day.  

*****

Since March, there is a worldwide urban to rural reverse migration. Rural people have lost their jobs and livelihoods and returned to villages and forests. This process is more pronounced in the developing nations of Asia and Africa. A famished person can’t be expected to think of morality or the environment. If governments don’t help the starving, they will engage in logging and wildlife hunting. In Africa, 301 mammal species, including primates, ungulates, bats, marsupials, rodents, carnivores, and pangolins are endangered by hunting for bushmeat. A 2-3 year pandemic with no tourists, and little patrolling will make many of them extinct.

*****

The virus epidemic sets in process a vicious circle. It forces starving people to kill and eat wild animals. It allows black markets to sell meat of a variety of wild species. This contact with the wild animals increases the chances of another Coronavirus transmission.

The only solution, if there is one, is for the governments to breed and supply poultry and fish on a large scale. They are considered safe for human consumption and contact. Chicken and fish are capable of saving elephants and rhinos.  

Ravi

Corona Daily 437: The Exotic Horn

On 3 March, Do Thanh Son, a 38-year old Vietnamese was flying from Korea to Vietnam. He had flown on this route hundreds of times. When the pilot announced a change in route, Do Son couldn’t believe his ears. He asked the airhostess to confirm. Yes, she said. We have been asked to divert the plane to prevent the spread of the virus. Lots of new cases in Ho Chi Minh city, sir.

But, Can Tho airport is so far, Do complained. How will I get home? Will the airline send my luggage home?

Don’t worry, sir. The airline will make sure you are taken good care of.

Vietnam’s Can Tho airport is 180 km away from the busy Tan Son Nhat airport where the plane was supposed to land.

The changed airport was in the same country. Immigration and custom clearance would take place here, and then the airlines would decide how to send individual passengers onward/home.

At 0345 pm, Do Son’s suitcases were passing through the x-ray machine.

‘Please open that bag.’ Said the Customs officer.

Do Son flashed a smile. ‘Sorry, I can’t. I am carrying live Koi Fish sedated for the flight. If I open the bag, they will die.’

When the passenger can’t be persuaded to open the suitcase, Customs have to act as per the procedure. It took three hours before they gathered witnesses, officers ready with cameras, and paperwork complete. The opened suitcases revealed 11 rhinoceros horns, weighing nearly 30 kgs. The Custom officials promptly seized the horns, which weight-wise are more expensive than gold or cocaine. Do Thanh Son was sent on a two week quarantine as per the epidemic regulations.

*****  

Wildlife trafficking is a $20 billion business. Rhinos are killed for their horns. Over the past 40 years, the world’s rhino population has reduced by 90%. Today South Africa is home to 70% of the 27,000 rhinos left on earth. The horn of a rhinoceros is perhaps more exotic than elephant ivory, tiger penis and giraffe tail, the reason being its value in Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM).

For thousands of years, the Chinese have credited the rhino horn with curing everything from a headache to cancer, typhoid, arthritis, poisoning, warding off evil spirits, even depression. In China and Vietnam, ownership of a rhino horn is a status symbol for the super rich.  

*****

Organised criminal gangs deal in the international trade of rhino horns and other illegal wildlife. They are so cash rich, they bribe the border police, customs, judges and politicians. Had the Vietnamese citizen landed at the scheduled airport, he would have escaped with 30 kg of rhino horns with no sweat, because everyone at that airport was already bought.

On 23 March, South Africa went into a lockdown. Since then, every day there are multiple reports of rhino poaching. As to why the pandemic is terrible for wildlife I will discuss tomorrow.

Ravi

Corona Daily 438: Wild Bee Celebrations

On 20 May, UN celebrates World Bee Day. This year’s event Bee Engaged was virtual. Famous actors read poems dedicated to bees. Bee lovers can watch them online. Not only the day, but this year has been a big source of joy and celebration. For the bees, of course. 

Why are bees so important? Because our survival depends on their survival.

Pollination is the process that transfers pollen from the male part of the plant to the female part of the plant. Just like in humans, seeds and fertilization require the union of a male and a female. Plants or crops can’t pollinate without external help. Bees, the hardest working creatures, are more efficient than wind, bats, birds and other insects; bees pollinate on a much bigger scale. Bees fertilise one third of the food we eat, and 80% of the flowering plants. Trees and woods are essential for filtering the air, and bees for pollinating to procure food for us. We studied this as children, and forgot it as adults.

But the bee population is declining rapidly. This rate of decline threatens to make bees, butterflies and bats extinct. Extinction rates are 100-1000 times higher due to human impact. Pollution, pesticides, intensive farming practices, climate change, even vehicle traffic destroy bees. Bees lose their sense of smell and get confused due to pollution. Bees come to pollinate, consume pesticides and die. Every year, North American vehicles kill 24 billion bees and wasps on roads.  

The absence of bees would wipe out not only broccoli, asparagus, cucumber, apricots, strawberries, but also apples, tomatoes, almonds, coffee and cocoa, crops that rely on the pollination of bees. In the event of bees’ extinction, fruits, nuts and vegetables would disappear from our plates. The resulting starchy diet of rice, corn and potatoes is very imbalanced.

*****

The worldwide lockdowns have done wonders for wildlife. The strait of Istanbul normally sees only oil tankers, now it is full of dolphins. Wild boars are wandering in the center of Haifa in Israel; large flocks of pink flamingos have arrived in Albania after its leather processing factories were shut, cougars are roaming the streets of Santiago, and Kashmiri goats are seen in Wales.

Wild bees are having the time of their life. Humans and vehicles have disappeared. In a world free of pollution, bees can make shorter and more profitable shopping trips, and that helps them grow their population, says Mark Brown, ecologist at the University of London.

In the UK, councils regularly maintain and level the grass outside public properties, roads, churches. Since March, this work has stopped. As a result, grass and flowers have grown everywhere, providing plenty of surprise food for the bees. A movement called ‘Don’t mow, let it grow’ has advocated this unsuccessfully for years. Coronavirus has finally forced the UK government’s hand.

If bees could pray, they would pray for lockdowns to last forever.

Ravi

Corona Daily 439: Ukraine Baby Boom

The story of the stranded newborns in Ukraine came to light because Biotexcom, a leading surrogate agency published a promotional video this month. The video showed dozens of infants crying in unison, and masked nannies murmuring soothing words for parents locked down abroad. The Ukrainian ART (assisted reproductive technology) agencies had never faced a situation where by the end of 2020 they may be nursing a thousand children separated from parents since birth.

In 2015, many Asian countries, including India banned commercial surrogacy. Since then, Ukraine, Europe’s poorest nation, became the most attractive destination. In the USA, where allowed, surrogacy costs $ 100,000-150,000. In Ukraine, the total package is up to $ 50,000. Many EU nations ban surrogacy. Ukraine has loose legislation, Ukrainian women are white, generally in good health, educated. The egg donating and surrogacy business are lucrative particularly for impoverished women from smaller cities or rural areas. In a job, she struggles to earn $ 300 a month, but surrogacy can give her $ 15,000.

Agencies like Biotexcom have a transparent price list. The surrogate mother is paid 14,000 Euros (20,000 if carrying twins) + 2000 Euros for food. For a second pregnancy, an additional 2000 Euros, and additional 3000 Euros for a third pregnancy. If she smokes during pregnancy, she is fined. She is also entitled to 1000 Euros for good behaviour.

Agencies don’t recruit women from Eastern Ukraine, a war zone, for fear of losing the foreign child along with the surrogate mother.

Biotexcom owns a hotel called Venice, where the arriving foreign parents stay until the paperwork is over. Before the lockdown, 16 couples had successfully landed in Kiev. They are now with their babies, but can’t leave the country.

No child can leave the country without a valid passport. This is where things get complicated. Each country has different laws. Spain insists the surrogate child gets citizenship of the country where it is born. German laws define a mother as one who has delivered the child. In one prolonged case, a German court forced the parents to get the name of the Ukrainian surrogate mother on the certificate. Later with her consent, the German mother had to adopt her daughter. The German court had called it child trafficking, since Germans were smuggling a child born to a foreign woman in a foreign country. USA and many other nations insist on a DNA test to establish the genetic connection. Sometimes an embryo mix-up happens, and DNA test shows the absence of any common genes. The USA state department warns that such children are likely to be stateless. They can’t be taken out of Ukraine.

Some readers asked what would happen, God forbid, if the Argentinean couple (from yesterday’s story) falls victim to Covid-19. The father, after all, is a doctor in intensive care. In that situation, I am afraid, the child will become an orphan and the Ukrainian state will have to take care of him. The state will probably sue the agency, and claim compensation.

The human rights Ombudsman has now raised this issue in the Ukrainian parliament. The Catholic Bishops, after watching the Biotexcom video, called it an online store for little ones, with no-show from the customers.

Ravi

Corona Daily 440: Brave New World

Flavia Lavorino and Jose Perez, an Argentinean couple, had tried to have a child for fifteen years. When a friend mentioned Ukraine’s liberal surrogacy laws, Flavia Googled Ukraine. It was 12,800 km away from Buenos Aires.

In December 2018, they began correspondence with a Kiev surrogacy agency. Four months later, they reached the Ukrainian capital after changing three flights. On 22 April 2019, the clinic collected his sperm and her eggs. They would never know anything about the gestational mother. She would simply rent her womb, the child would be genetically theirs.

The fertility tourism package cost $ 40,000. Flavia and Jose needed to borrow from the bank as well as family. It was still much cheaper than in the USA.

Late July, they did a Tango on seeing the WhatsApp message from Kiev. The surrogate mother was successfully pregnant. She would deliver around 10 April 2020. The clinic sent scans every month. It was a boy. After deliberating for weeks, they decided to name him Manuel, Manu for short. But no need to inform the clinic in advance. They would be in Kiev in person to name their son.

Jose is a doctor in intensive care, and Flavia a health worker. They applied for leave well in advance and bought tickets for 2 April, with a stopover in Madrid. Flavia circled the date on her desk calendar.

***** 

In March 2020, 28-year old A. shared a rented Kiev flat with two other surrogate mothers. A. is a mother of two children aged 4 and 7 years old. She had travelled 500 km by train to reach Kiev, leaving her children with their father. The Ukrainian laws require the surrogate mother must have successfully delivered a child before. And the surrogate agency wanted her to be in Kiev, for the doctors to monitor her till delivery. She would spend weeks away from her family, but it was worth it. The money was good.  She didn’t know it but she was carrying a child whose parents were 12,800 km away.

In March, the Kiev subway and trams stopped. Ukraine closed borders to all foreigners. A. developed a routine. Morning exercise, breakfast with porridge, watching TV, and an occasional short walk in the neighborhood. The evenings were chilly and dark.

The thought that the parents would not be in the country when she delivers the child scared her. The agency said the baby will be looked after by a nanny until the parents arrived.

On 30 March, A. delivered. A little prematurely, but the baby was normal. As per the agreement, she left the hospital without coming in contact with the child. Transport permitting, she would go back to her family as soon as she finished the paperwork, and got paid.

*****

Eight weeks later, Flavia and Jose are still 12,800 km away from their son. A family court has now permitted them to make the trip when (and if) they can fly. Argentina has banned flights until the end of September.

Their son, Manu, is not the only one. There are 100 babies in a Kiev hotel whose parents are abroad. And if the lockdown continues, in a few months, the projected figure is 1000 babies.

Imagine being stranded upon arrival into the world. Details about the surrogate baby boom in Ukraine tomorrow.

Ravi

Corona Daily 441: Planes Can’t Just Fly

On 22 May, Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) flight 8303 from Lahore to Karachi crashed killing all but two on board. The wheels didn’t open out when the pilot tried to land. In his Mayday call, he said the engines had failed, and the landing gear had problems. The plane landed in a residential area in Karachi, destroying eighteen houses. The 2004 Airbus A-320 was last checked on 21 March, and was declared fit to fly till 5 November 2020. The Pilots and crew were well qualified.

*****

During a lockdown, many people run the engines of their cars every week, some every day. An aircraft is a far more intricate mechanism than a car.

An estimated 70% of the world’s fleet is currently grounded. Parking is expensive. Delhi airport charges 1000$ per plane per day. US airlines are shuttling many planes for long-term storage. You can’t simply park and cover planes. Active parking includes running the engines every week, running major systems and maintenance. Oils and everything else that can be recirculated must be recirculated.

Qantas, advertised as the safest airline, has parked its planes in Australia’s major airports. The crew regularly hoses down the exterior, rotates wheels, changes tyres, starts the engines and inserts moisture absorbers in them to lower the humidity.

Many grounded planes will never fly again. US airlines will collectively retire 800-1000 aircraft this year, because they would be out of action for too long. China Airlines have 200 new-generation, long-haul, wide-body airliners they won’t need for the next five years. Parts of the retired planes are used or sold. This is called the tearing down process. Whatever remains is scrapped, and beer cans made out of the scrap metal.

*****

Both people and planes have been locked down for two months. Planes grounded for two months first need to be tested by flying them without passengers.

Unfortunately, the aviation laws in Pakistan and India require such a test only if the aircraft is stuck in a hangar for a long time. If the plane was parked under the blue sky, no such test is required. A test flight costs 40,000 $ in India. Naturally, the bankrupt airlines are unwilling to incur that cost. They will risk flying planes that are not airworthy.

Pilots and crew who have not worked for 2-3 months are required to get fresh flying hours. These are called recency requirements. Pilots are expected to make up hours in flight simulators before entering the actual cockpit. Did pilots in Pakistan and India do this during the lockdown? Only they know.

*****

India plans to begin domestic flights tomorrow, 25 May. Indian planes have been silent for two months in humid weather. Was anybody working on starting the engines, rotating tyres, recirculating oils regularly? There are no reports about that.  

As passengers, all we can do is to avoid air travel in airlines that we suspect don’t run test flights.

The lockdown has been a unique thing to aviation. Its focus has been on disinfection, sanitization, keeping the middle seats empty. If the plane crashes, all those precautions come to nothing.

Ravi

Corona Daily 442: Livestock Holocaust

The last two months produced a holocaust for pigs and poultry. In the USA alone, 10 million chickens were culled. By September, an estimated 10 million pigs will be depopulated.

What is unusual about this? They are bred to be killed, aren’t they?

Different operators specialise in this food chain. Pig farms breed and raise the pigs. On reaching the required market weight, the pigs are despatched to the slaughterhouses. The slaughterhouses slaughter them as per the law of the country. Animals are supposed to be sedated before being killed.  Meat packing giants such as Tyson foods (USA) are responsible for processing, packaging and distribution of meat that is served in a restaurant or sold in the supermarket.

In the USA, slaughterhouses possibly have the worst working conditions. Mostly undocumented workers are cramped in unhygienic conditions; accidents are three times higher than average, amputations are a weekly affair. (Difficult to decide whose life is more miserable: those who kill or those who get killed). If a passionate meat-eater were to visit a slaughterhouse, he may convert to vegetarianism.

In March, the slaughterhouses became incubators for Coronavirus. Half of the American Covid-19 hotspots were linked to meat processing. By 8 May, at least 30 major slaughterhouses were shut because of the outbreaks, affecting 45,000 workers, reducing pork slaughter capacity by 40%. More than 6500 workers were infected, and 30 died.

Once the slaughterhouses closed, the pig farms and poultries were in a fix. Pigs grow in six months, and broilers in six weeks. Sows (female pigs) were already pregnant, delivering piglets. Piglets would take the place of those sent to the slaughterhouse. The farms and poultries ran out of space with so many pigs and chicken. (Cows are not yet severely affected because they are on ranches). With business busted and supply chains disrupted, costs must be cut. No sense in feeding livestock when it can’t be converted into meat. In such cases, the American Veterinary Medical Association (AVMA) recommends “depopulating” (or euthanizing) animals.

Farmers who raise the pigs don’t have the facilities of a slaughterhouse. Killing is not their job. AVMA’s preferred methods are: injectable anesthetic overdose, gassing, shooting with guns, electrocution and manual blunt force trauma. These are the “more humane” methods. If that is not practical, in constrained circumstances (such as the current pandemic), ventilator shutdown (VSD) combined with CO2 gassing and sodium nitrite is suggested. Fire fighting foam has been used in places, which prolongs the suffering. Nitrogen gas must be added, if possible, to make the death faster.

Leah Garces, president of “Mercy for animals” described it graphically: “manual blunt force is slamming piglets against the ground, and VSD is cooking pigs alive”.

Disposing of the thousands of carcasses is another problem farmers are not familiar with. They try to rent trailers to haul the carcasses away.

In April and May millions of animals had to be depopulated by suffocation, drowning, shooting or smothering by water-based foam. Meanwhile, six-mile long queues wait outside food banks and millions face hunger.

Ravi

Corona Daily 443: The Case of a Choir Rehearsal

Last week, Skagit County, Washington, published the report of its investigation into the local choir group.

Skagit Valley Chorale has 122 members, between the ages of 31 and 83 though the majority is in their late sixties. 84% of the singers are women. Practice is religiously held every Tuesday evening. Many veterans, part of the choir for more than fifteen years, eagerly look forward to these Tuesday gatherings. Skagit valley’s famous Tulip festival in April attracts a million visitors, so the months of practice in February and March are particularly special.

On 6 March, Adam Burdick, the 49 year old conductor, emailed the group: “Amid the stress and strain of concerns about the virus, practice would proceed as scheduled at Mount Vernon Presbyterian Church. I’m planning on being there this Tuesday, March 10, and hoping many of you will be, too.”

The evening of 10 March was chilly. 61 members turned up. Instead of the usual handshakes and hugs, everyone sanitized hands at the entrance and carried their own music sheets. Members sat in their usual chairs and practiced for 40 minutes. To energise the group, Burdick began with Sing on! Whatever comes your way, sing on! Sing on!  Singing was as powerful as ever.

Then they split into two smaller groups, and practiced for 50 minutes. Cookies and oranges were served in the fifteen minute break. Going back to their original seats, they rehearsed for another 50 minutes. Everyone put back their own chair, perhaps causing a little crowding at the chair rack. The 61 singers were present from 0630 to 0900 pm. Then they drove away in their individual cars.

*****

In three days, Carolyn Comstock, 62, a soprano, felt chills and a temperature. She couldn’t taste or smell the sauce she put on her pizza. 24 hours later, Burdick woke up with a temperature of 103 F.

Out of the 61 attendees, 53 developed a cough, fever, muscle ache and headache. Later a few suffered diarrhea, nausea and abdominal cramps. The more serious had viral pneumonia and respiratory failure.

On 18 March, Nancy Hamilton, 83, a soprano, sent Burdick a message saying she was worried about the condition of another. Burdick talked to comfort Nancy, but Nancy herself died the next day.

On 27 March, Carole Woodmansee died on her 81^st birthday.

*****

One singer had a cold since 7 March. That index patient was identified (but not named) as the super-spreader. The 10 March choir practice is termed a super-spreading  event, where a single person caused mass transmission. (On 11 May, in Ghana, one factory worker infected 533 co-workers).

The powerful singing was near fatal. When they projected their voices, they also projected more virus. Loud singing, even loud talking, emits more aerosols, risking greater spread of the virus. And the choir can’t rehearse with masks on.

***** 

The lessons: 80+ should be super-careful. Avoid big parties or gatherings. Talk softly. Wear masks. If you must attend a birthday party, please don’t sing ‘happy birthday’ at the top of your voice.

Ravi

Corona Daily 444: Back to School

Boris Johnson now wants his country to recover as rapidly as he did. The ‘Stay at home’ order has been replaced by a somewhat confusing ‘stay alert’. Last week, Johnson published a sixty page document detailing his plan to rebuild the UK, in which he wants to relax the restrictions on educational institutions. An Eton and Oxford scholar himself, little wonder he is keen to get the kids back to school. And who better to start with than the youngest? On 1 June, nursery, early years, reception (age 3-6) and grade 6 (age 10-11) will return to schools.

A meticulously prepared plan has been published for their school-coming. Here are the highlights.

The class will be split in two. No more than fifteen pupils with a single teacher will form a ‘protective bubble’.

Staggered timings for arrivals, assemblies, breaks, lunch times and departures prevent crowding and students are forbidden to bring anything to school – no schoolbag, no PE kit, no toys, not even pencil kits. As soon as they enter the school, they should wash their hands thoroughly. Every hour or so, staff will clean the classrooms, and pupils will wash their hands.

Pupils should ideally keep a distance of 2 meters all the time. (The UK formally use the word ‘ideally’ when they know it’s not going to happen).

Pupils may not recognize the classrooms they left in March. All soft toys and dinosaurs have been removed, because they can’t be cleaned. Desks are separated. Doors and windows are open. Corridors have been marked to ensure one-way-traffic. Sharing is caring, but not until the pandemic is over. No water play, no sand, no play dough is allowed. Each class will be given a box of books each day. After school the box will be put in quarantine. Nothing can be taken home, not even the pictures they have drawn. Playgrounds are marked off with sports cones. The school can use only easily cleanable equipment, like hoops or balls.

Masks are not necessary. However, if a pupil develops Coronavirus-like symptoms, the relevant teacher and staff should use gloves, an apron and a face mask. If someone tests positive, the entire bubble must go into self-isolation at home for two weeks.

Every day, when the child reaches home, parents must wash the child’s clothes.

*****

Johnson’s rational plan has surprisingly faced some resistance. Williamson, the education secretary, said the latest scientific evidence indicates it is safe to restart schools but the scientific advisor, Dame McLean said a full test, track and trace program should be in place first.

A small rebellion has begun. 35 councils and up to 1500 primary schools defy reopening. Teachers’ unions have called the plan irresponsible. Many parents don’t like the idea of offering their offspring as guinea pigs.

Education is devolved in the UK. Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have confirmed they won’t reopen schools. On 1 June, it will be interesting to visit primary schools in England to find disciplined 3-year olds not licking their fingers, not picking their noses, and staying two meters away from one another.

Ravi